Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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422. JLPR2
Almost looks like Maria's LLC opened up. But we need a little more evidence before saying that securely.
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421. Relix
I believe Maria will hit PR in the south as a Cat 1 Hurricane =). Gut feeling
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Maria continues to be sheared from the SW as seen in the ADT center fix. Sheared systems can relocate their centers to where the convection is so that remains an option for Maria. Failing that it will keep on trucking to the West quickly

thats true but she really wont weaken as the shear wont be high to kill her but will stop stregnthining and try to imply a more westward course for her
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Night all, see you all in the morning.



good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
um taz katia so far was a fish she is currently a fish because in between of bermuda and the US and the sharp trough recurve should keep her away from the US meaning she will be a fish storm. maria gets more tricky but most likely her interaction if its direct with the northern antliess wont make her a fish but more of a recurving storm east of the US



but it could hit UK later
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z GFDL; 126 hours. (No surprise that it mimics the GFS' track).



18z HWRF; 126 hours. A bit further north and intense. Moving W/WSW.



(Unless you mean Maria, lol).


Actually the FSU page wasn't updated..

Link
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Night all, see you all in the morning.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




and POOF you go
um taz katia so far was a fish she is currently a fish because in between of bermuda and the US and the sharp trough recurve should keep her away from the US meaning she will be a fish storm. maria gets more tricky but most likely her interaction if its direct with the northern antliess wont make her a fish but more of a recurving storm east of the US
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
Quoting JLPR2:


Just grow some gills and you'll do fine. XD


LOL.
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Good evening

Maria continues to be sheared from the SW as seen in the ADT center fix. Sheared systems can relocate their centers to where the convection is so that remains an option for Maria. Failing that it will keep on trucking to the West quickly

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Roxanne!




You don't have to put on the red light...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He's right...




not if are K storm hits UK later on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure

LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only place a tropical cyclone could fit in the Atlantic basin in the Caribbean, lol. I know there have been four tropical cyclones active before, but have there ever been five?


As odd as it is, I just read this a couple of hours ago...

There have been two instances when the Atlantic Basin played host to five simultaneous storms.

The first time five storms appeared simultaneously was on September 11th, 1971: Tropical Storm Edith (weakened from a strong hurricane after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula), Hurricane Fern (which made landfall in Texas the day before), Hurricane Ginger (attained hurricane status that day), Tropical Depression Heidi (which would only develop into a tropical storm) and Hurricane Irene (also attained hurricane status that day).




On August 27th, 1995, five storms appeared simultaneously for just the second time in history: Hurricane Humberto (weakening from a Category 2 hurricane), Tropical Storm Iris (in the middle of regaining enough strength to once again be classified as a hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry (downgraded from Tropical Storm Jerry), Tropical Depression Karen (strengthening, the storm would be named the next day but never got past tropical storm wind levels) and Tropical Depression 13 (which would develop two days later into Tropical Storm Luis and the day after into Hurricane Luis).

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pfftt.. East Coast was about as lucky this year as I am winning the lottery, which is nill chance just about. 10 billion in damages, 40+ dead in the USA alone.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Mike in 1950
Kendra in 1966


Yup! you win a plus!
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i wish you guys stop uesing the word fish if it hits land and go out too sea its not a fish even if a storm is ony 50mph and hits land and go out too sea later that dos not make it a fish storm



a fish storm is a word that olny sould be ues if the storm fully gos out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting CaribBoy:
NO 18Z GFDL and HWRF!!!!!!!!! WHY???
18z GFDL; 126 hours. (No surprise that it mimics the GFS' track).



18z HWRF; 126 hours. A bit further north and more intense. Moving W/WSW.



(Unless you mean Maria, lol).
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure
Well to be honest, if you really want my opinion, I think the outflow from Katia, is holding Maria in check, providing some westerly wind shear. This is why the NHC keeps Maria at Tropical Storm strength for the next 5 day. If the wind shear does not let up it may even weaken it some. The general rule of thumb is for a weaker system to head more west and only when it starts to strengthen does it feel the influence of a trough or weakness in the high pressure ridging. It will be interesting to see how the model intensity forecast react to the steering of the system once it gets past the Northern Leeward Islands.
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Quoting will40:
390. CaribBoy 1:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2011


you can say what you want that doesent make it true


seriously, Katia is a fish. that's it
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The first time five storms appeared simultaneously was on September 11th, 1971: Tropical Storm Edith (weakened from a strong hurricane after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula), Hurricane Fern (which made landfall in Texas the day before), Hurricane Ginger (attained hurricane status that day), Tropical Depression Heidi (which would only develop into a tropical storm) and Hurricane Irene (also attained hurricane status that day).

On August 27th, 1995, five storms appeared simultaneously for just the second time in history: Hurricane Humberto (weakening from a Category 2 hurricane), Tropical Storm Iris (in the middle of regaining enough strength to once again be classified as a hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry (downgraded from Tropical Storm Jerry), Tropical Depression Karen (strengthening, the storm would be named the next day but never got past tropical storm wind levels) and Tropical Depression 13 (which would develop two days later into Tropical Storm Luis and the day after into Hurricane Luis).

Reading that they both include tropical depressions. When I think of storm, I think of tropical storm or stronger. So by my standard the record is still 4.
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401. JLPR2
Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure


Just grow some gills and you'll do fine. XD
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Trivia question.

Two storms have been named in the Atlantic basin that subsequently had their tropical status revoked in post season analysis. What were their names and what years were they in?


Mike in 1950
Kendra in 1966
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Quoting Tazmanian:




and POOF you go


He's right...
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Possibilities for Maria and Nate.
1: nate a little weaker becomes a cat 1 takes the left track (mexico track) west into mexcio, maria recurve percentage 70% pretty high still
2: nate becomes a little stronger canadian model verifies and we have a storm possibly stronger than a cat 1 making landfall in SE lousiana mississippi or alabama, maria recurve percentage 100% because the energy from nate would only increase the strength of the trough that will try to pick maria up. :P
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs stop yelling


lol usually i'm mister wise ;)
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Quoting will40:


Katia can still hit land. The US isnt the only land.
Doubt Katia can hit land. Look at the cone, the sea goes for thousands of miles.

Unless you are talking about a tropical storm in England, I doubt Katia can hit land.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes the US isnt the only land on earth, but NOW WE CAN SAY THAT KATIA WAS, IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FISH




and POOF you go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
390. CaribBoy 1:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2011


you can say what you want that doesent make it true
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393. code1
Quoting katlbeach:


I would dearly love to NOT have to get excited! I have evacuated before (Floyd), and it sucks. I don't want to have to go through that again. I was fortunate that everything was intact when I returned home. I can't even imagine what it would be like to have your home trashed by a storm.
It is, however, interesting to watch the storms form and develop and to get involved in the tracking. They take on their own personalities. And the information here is invaluable for those of us living near the coast in FL.


Case in point....invaluable for all coastal, & has been shown, inland as well. Watch, keep mouth shut other than questions. & LEARN, like most lessor beings in Met knowledge. Strawberries to all who really know, raspberries to those who think they do!

Please dont make our WU the laughing stock some others are with inane posts just to make yourselves heard. WU truly is premium, please keep it that way! Have fun following Ma Nature!
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any one going too say some in about commet 372
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only place a tropical cyclone could fit in the Atlantic basin in the Caribbean, lol. I know there have been four tropical cyclones active before, but have there ever been five?


No, other than 1998 though there were four active hurricanes in 1893. With two of the four hitting very odd locations. Savannah, GA and NYC\
Link
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Quoting will40:


Katia can still hit land. The US isnt the only land.


Yes the US isnt the only land on earth, but NOW WE CAN SAY THAT KATIA WAS, IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FISH
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Quoting CaribBoy:
NO 18Z GFDL and HWRF!!!!!!!!! WHY???



plzs stop yelling
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
We are too closely comparing 2005 to 2011. Everybody seems to forget, 2005 had a historically active late season, totally over double the pre/middle season did (IIRC).

We will lose track with 2005 come late season...by far.
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NO 18Z GFDL and HWRF!!!!!!!!! WHY???
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Quoting weatherh98:


if it hits some where it isnt fish... FISH is KATIA


Katia can still hit land. The US isnt the only land.
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Trivia question.

Two storms have been named in the Atlantic basin that subsequently had their tropical status revoked in post season analysis. What were their names and what years were they in?
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure


MARIA won't do much to PR.... on or two squals and that's it!
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure


if it hits some where it isnt fish... FISH is KATIA
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure




if it hits PR then go out too sea it wont be a fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
I have the feeling MARIA will die like GASTON last year... boring..
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380. MTWX
Quoting luvhurricanes:
I cant believe anyone would say Maria would be the one to hit East Coast but as this year has gone she might be the one. The name sounds frightening and yes the East coast has been extremly lucky so far.Lee was very gracious to the East Coast, Kept Katia from misbehaving.

Are you kidding??!!??
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only place a tropical cyclone could fit in the Atlantic basin in the Caribbean, lol. I know there have been four tropical cyclones active before, but have there ever been five?


the only season that could possibly do it would be 05 and we are close to passing it
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
In LESS than 3 weeks the Atlantic has spawned 7 storms, in which 2 became Major Hurricanes and even 1 Depression has formed that never became a storm.

IMPRESSIVE!


OB1 has taught you well.
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Who thinks Maria poses a threat to U.S. landfall (besides Puerto Rico)?

I think I could become a Fish but still unsure
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wow three storms at one time
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Quoting twincomanche:
Yep.

Yeth, thurely.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Did you see what's over Cuba, This.

Fla. people, don't get to excited yet. it's 360hrs out.


I would dearly love to NOT have to get excited! I have evacuated before (Floyd), and it sucks. I don't want to have to go through that again. I was fortunate that everything was intact when I returned home. I can't even imagine what it would be like to have your home trashed by a storm.
It is, however, interesting to watch the storms form and develop and to get involved in the tracking. They take on their own personalities. And the information here is invaluable for those of us living near the coast in FL.
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If anything, a slight southward nudge and minor increase in speed is in store for the 11p.m EDT cone. Overall however, no major changes in the intensity nor track forecast are likely.

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whats have a little fun


whats play a game of what if



starting with 90L in round 1 i think it may have had been a STS

round 1


90L bust would have been Ophelia

91L bust would have been Philippe

94L bust would have been Rina

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust would have been Sean

97L bust would have been Tammy

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L absorbed by Gert.

93L be comes HARVEY

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust would have been Vince

97L be comes Irene

98L bust would have been Whitney

99L bust would have been Alpha



round 3

90L be comes TD 10 would have been Beta

91L be comes JOSE

92L be comes Katia

93L be comes LEE

94L bust would have been Gamma

95L be comes Maria

96L be comes nate



this a little fun there then are next name storm would be Epsilon if that came all came ture above



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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