Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Quoting kmanislander:


Still a TS though.


and staying weak may keep her further south

if she does not die out, then she could be a bigger threat to land in the long run
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General location SSE of Washington D.C.


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1015 PM EDT for Charles
and Prince Georges counties...

At 1003 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This
tornado was located 8 miles northwest of Hallowing Point... moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Baden...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The cyclonic wind-shift around those coordinates is pretty poor (WNW to NW), granted west winds are present.

Regardless, the circulation looks to be ill-defined and broad.


It is still a tropical storm though, and rightfully so.
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If Maria opens up would that mean she will keep on a west path into the Carb.
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.
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467. DFWjc
Quoting FLdewey:
A fish storm is a storm that makes no landfall.... as in the center does not pass over land. Outer bands don't count, and for sure wave action doesn't make a storm not a fish storm.

I've never understood the fish rage, but since it comes up 345 times a day I guess it's unavoidable.


seems kinda fishy to me dewey...i think if the bands hit, it should count. They can still do some damage...
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Quoting CaribBoy:


2007 KAREN? lol
Nope. 2010 Gaston. Like Jose or Franklin. Did NOT deserve to be named.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but it could hit UK later
by the time katia reaches the UK she will be extratropical. once a storm loses its tropical characteristics and makes landfall still a fish. look at vince in 2005 made landfall in SPAIN as a td NOT A FISH STORM. by the way these are some "phrases" i use to describe storms tell me if you agree or disagree
Fish Storm- A tropical cyclone that does not directly affect land or make landfall on a land mass and if the cyclone becomes extratropical before making landfall this is still called a fish storm. Example: katia (so far) Danielle, karl 2004
Recurving Storm- a tropical cyclone that recurves either out to sea or into land (must affect some landmass before moving out to sea) example Irene( into North Carolina) earl (northern islands, canada)

US landfalling storm- a tropical cyclone that makes landfall in the US from texas to maine. Ex: andrew katrina ike Lee

Mexico landfalling storm- a tropical cyclone that makes landfall in Mexico Ex: karl stan 05 arlene 2011

Bermuda Affecting storm- a tropical cyclone that either passes 50 miles or closer or directly over the island of bermuda. Ex: fabian 03, igor 2010
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The cyclonic wind-shift around those coordinates is pretty poor (WNW to NW), granted west winds are present.

Regardless, the circulation looks to be ill-defined and broad.


Still a TS though.
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Quoting kmanislander:


13.3 N and 45.2 W

1002 mbs, 45 knots. Not an open wave.
The cyclonic wind-shift around those coordinates is pretty poor (WNW to NW), granted west winds are present.

Regardless, the circulation looks to be ill-defined and broad.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I have seen this before...


2007 KAREN? lol
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Quoting A4Guy:
Golly...looks like FL might dodge another bullet with Maria, as the models continue to trend East late in the fcst period. For how many more years can we get lucky, especially considering how many storms we have had over the last two years (and how many close calls with Ike, Irene, etc.)? I know the season ain't over by a long shot, but steering patterns seem to have us protected from CV storms....and hopefully late season W Carib storms will stay away too.
If a storm forms in the west caribbean and it develops, it could strike florida as a weak hurricane or tropical storm most likely, due to the steering currents pulling it north... Unless the storm pulls a "wilma" or something.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
RIP Maria


Here we go....
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458. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maria is moving awfully quickly. It can be hard for tropical storms in the deep tropics to maintain a closed circulation when they move so fast.


Yeah, but I'll give it the benefit of a doubt. If tomorrow morning's ASCAT shows the same then it is safe to say it opened up.
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014L/TS/M/CX
MARK next forecast point
14.40N/46.25W
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456. code1
Niters WU'ers! No time to play with players. LOL. See you when they e gone on to play elsewhere as they do. No hits on any mainland, fish always!
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well if you're gonna get technical, almost no storms are true fish storms. storms that get caught up in the north atlantic usually affect europe as extratropical systems. even storms that die as they move west usually impact some land somewhere in their post-tropical lives, even as an open wave or a scattered shower within a small puff of clouds.

that said, based on the casual understanding of the term "fish storm", katia certainly qualifies.
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I drank a Fresca. Once.
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453. A4Guy
Golly...looks like FL might dodge another bullet with Maria, as the models continue to trend East late in the fcst period. For how many more years can we get lucky, especially considering how many storms we have had over the last two years (and how many close calls with Ike, Irene, etc.)? I know the season ain't over by a long shot, but steering patterns seem to have us protected from CV storms....and hopefully late season W Carib storms will stay away too.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


or Norway?


It was done in 1966 by Hurricane Faith. Sorta.




Goodnight everyone.
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451. code1
Quoting Hurtrap:
lighten up whydoncha, geez somebody needs a fresca!


And you joined yesterday? Here, let me pour for you.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I have seen this before...
A good example would be Colin from last year. He was racing under the influence of a LLJ at over 20 knots. This caused for his circulation to open up. It became a tropical storm again after it interacted with an upper-low which helped it fire convective activity (due to the divergence).
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Good Night...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless the circulation is displaced several degrees west of the CDO, it's pretty safe to say we have tropical wave Maria lol.


13.3 N and 45.2 W

1002 mbs, 45 knots. Not an open wave.
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Quoting kipperedherring:
You're really hung up on this UK thing, what did they ever do to you?




lol nothing?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I have seen this before...


Haha yep, it was forecasted to become a hurricane at one point i think.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



at lest TD 14 be came Maria be for it open backed up
RIP Maria
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A fish storm is by definition a storm that doesn't effect land while active. In that case, Katia would count as a fish storm.

However, there is no such thing as a real fish storm as most major hurricanes this close to the US cause increase swells to the USA, causing several deaths to swimmers on the East Coast from the rip currents.

Julia would count as a true fish storm though. Igor at first glance would be considered a fish, but in truth the damages to Newfoundland where so bad it merited retirement.

WU bloggers use 'fish' though usually as an insult to people who predicted that a certain storm might get close to the USA, and is ill placed imo.

Mother nature is as mother nature does you know.

Night all.


I remember Julia affecting the Cape Verde islands. That ain't a fish storm.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but it could hit UK later


or Norway?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Almost looks like Maria's LLC opened up. But we need a little more evidence before saying that securely.

I have seen this before...
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
My bedtime too. Taz I might do another model narration Sunday night.




sunday night can you stay up and do one tonight this kinding


but ok have a good night
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maria is moving awfully quickly. It can be hard for tropical storms in the deep tropics to maintain a closed circulation.


Exactly right. Since it is moving at 23 mph, it will have a hard time maintaining that closed surface circulation. Its possible it could open back up, if it hasn't already.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless the circulation is displaced several degrees west of the CDO, it's pretty safe to say we have tropical wave Maria lol.



at lest TD 14 be came Maria be for it open backed up
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My bedtime too. Taz I might do another model narration Sunday night.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Night all, see you all in the morning.


Good night.
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00z SHIPS suggests that Maria could be strengthening by day 5 as shear decreases late in the period.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, best to use this link.


Thanks Miami'
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A fish storm is by definition a storm that doesn't effect land while active. In that case, Katia would count as a fish storm.

However, there is no such thing as a real fish storm as most major hurricanes this close to the US cause increase swells to the USA, causing several deaths to swimmers on the East Coast from the rip currents.

Julia would count as a true fish storm though. Igor at first glance would be considered a fish, but in truth the damages to Newfoundland where so bad it merited retirement.

WU bloggers use 'fish' though usually as an insult to people who predicted that a certain storm might get close to the USA, and is ill placed imo.

Mother nature is as mother nature does you know.

Night all.



+1
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Quoting JLPR2:
Almost looks like Maria's LLC opened up. But we need a little more evidence before saying that securely.
Unless the circulation is displaced several degrees west of the CDO, it's pretty safe to say we have tropical wave Maria lol.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Almost looks like Maria's LLC opened up. But we need a little more evidence before saying that securely.


Maria is moving awfully quickly. It can be hard for tropical storms in the deep tropics to maintain a closed circulation when they move so fast.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
What I don't understand is with all this bickering of whether a storm is a fish or not, hello?! Isn't all Tropical Systems fish storms since they develop over water where fishes live...sheeeshhh!!!


My thoughts exactly ;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:




not if are K storm hits UK later on

As it stands right now, though, Katia is indeed a fish until it reaches landfall. Pretty soon Katia will become extratropical and the NHC could issue the last advisory before it reaches Europe, as they usually do with extratropical storms. Therefore, on the plot the storm will most likely "die" at sea. Sure the remaining low pressure could stir up waves and bring gusty winds and heavy rains to England but it wouldn't "count" as a landfall for the storm, according to the nhc tracking charts anyways.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




not if are K storm hits UK later on


But the UK isn't in the NHC forecast area..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
A fish storm is by definition a storm that doesn't effect land while active. In that case, Katia would count as a fish storm.

However, there is no such thing as a real fish storm as most major hurricanes this close to the US cause increase swells to the USA, causing several deaths to swimmers on the East Coast from the rip currents.

Julia would count as a true fish storm though. Igor at first glance would be considered a fish, but in truth the damages to Newfoundland where so bad it merited retirement.

WU bloggers use 'fish' though usually as an insult to people who predicted that a certain storm might get close to the USA, and is ill placed imo.

Mother nature is as mother nature does you know.

Night all.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
What I don't understand is with all this bickering of whether a storm is a fish or not, hello?! Isn't all Tropical Systems fish storms since they develop over water where fishes live...sheeeshhh!!!
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All storms are fish storms...
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Actually the FSU page wasn't updated..

Link
Yeah, best to use this link.
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422. JLPR2
Almost looks like Maria's LLC opened up. But we need a little more evidence before saying that securely.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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