Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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671. Drakoen
3:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Current Score...
You = 0
Troll= 1


LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
670. TomTaylor
3:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting ryang:
Is there another site for the MJO forecast besides the CPC website?


Yes, plenty

don't be afraid to use Google search lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
669. redwagon
3:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting cctxshirl:

yes, it's too much to ask-it's never going to rain here again (or at least it seems we won't get rain ever again!)
The last thing we need is lightening, but some nice rain would sure be welcome.



There's nothing here Nate can work with for us.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
668. PrivateIdaho
3:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, but she looks to old to be a troll


apparently you missed my troll rant last night.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
667. ryang
3:30 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Is there another site for the MJO forecast besides the CPC website?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
666. 7544
3:28 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
looks like the trof over fl is weakening now ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
665. Hou77083
3:28 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, but she looks to old to be a troll


Looks can be deceiving!
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
664. sunlinepr
3:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, but she looks to old to be a troll


Esa es la abuela del Troll que lo esta ayudando...
Grandma is helping the troll

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
663. kmanislander
3:26 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Out now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
662. BDADUDE
3:25 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
H.Katia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_12amGMT and ending 8Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 34.348n77.648w-01NC is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 330degrees(NNW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over MARSpaceport(Bloxom)Virginia ~1days23hours from now

Copy&paste 34.348n77.648w-01nc, 27.7n66.9w-28.2n67.6w, 28.2n67.6w-28.8n68.4w, 28.8n68.4w-29.4n69.3w, 29.4n69.3w-30.3n69.9w, 9va3, 29.4n69.3w-37.8186n75.501w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 7Sept_6pmGMT)
I dont understand the point of these things??
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 605
661. docrod
3:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting JeffMasters:
Bad news in Binghamton, NY, which has just had it's heaviest 24-hour rainfall in history:

The Flood Warning continues for
the Susquehanna River at Binghamton Washington street.
* At 9:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 26.0 feet by
early Thursday afternoon. Then begin falling.
* Impact... at 25.6 feet... the river overtops the flood walls in downtown Binghamton.

Jeff Masters


Checking on a friend there now ... I think he is on higher ground - thanks
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
660. kmanislander
3:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Current Score...
You = 0
Troll= 1


Sell by Jan 14th 2009 LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
659. mcluvincane
3:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Current Score...
You = 0
Troll= 1


Yeah, but she looks to old to be a troll
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
658. Clearwater1
3:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting ktymisty:
For those following the sun, another X-class flare today


One day, who knows when, the Earth will get caught in a major X class solar flare. (this one missed us for the most part) But when the big one hits, it will put satellite and other communications out of commission for some time. Set hurricane tracking back a few years, to say the least. Just a matter of when, not if. Have a good evening and sleep well.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
657. aspectre
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
H.Katia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_12amGMT and ending 8Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 34.348n77.648w-01NC is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 330degrees(NNW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over MARSpaceport(Bloxom)Virginia ~1days23hours from now

Copy&paste 34.348n77.648w-01nc, 27.7n66.9w-28.2n67.6w, 28.2n67.6w-28.8n68.4w, 28.8n68.4w-29.4n69.3w, 29.4n69.3w-30.3n69.9w, 9va3, 29.4n69.3w-37.8186n75.501w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 7Sept_6pmGMT)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
656. 7544
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
ok track shifted west by 2 degrees so far
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
655. sunlinepr
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
We are under a groupal Anti wallmart TROLL attack....
Relax... press the ! and keep on bloggin....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
654. pottery
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


WTH is up with these pics you are posting? Are they of any importance to you.

Current Score...
You = 0
Troll= 1
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
653. TomTaylor
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


I think it has more to do with speed shear. It's very difficult to keep a tropical cyclone together when it's moving 23mph and then has 15kts of shear. CIMSS maps don't really support anything higher than 15-20kts of shear, but that is plenty when the storm is moving so fast.
mm, not sure I totally agree.

Speed shear would be indicated by the LLC running out ahead, or at least trying, of the MLC/main convective blob. In this case, the LLC does not appear to be doing that. Although we do have a lopsided convection scheme with regards to the center, the lopsidedness is from N to S, not E to W. What that tells me is that there is Southerly shear and greater surface divergence (trade winds pile up on that side) and upper divergence along the northern side, favoring a lopsided convection scheme.

Don't get me wrong, the fast motion of this storm doesn't help at all, it makes surface convergence very difficult. CIMSS maps reflect this

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
652. kmanislander
3:22 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting ackee:
think we see another TOMAS guess westrn cuba and the caymans should be on there gaurds later on in the seasons then


The CV season is for the Eastern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas. October and November is the NW and Central Caribbean, Florida and the Central and Northern Bahamas IMO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
651. Orcasystems
3:21 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

TS Maria
is coming
CAT 1 Katia is going
TS Nate is in the dreaded NFI Cone of Doom.






Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting thesituation:
Bananas Bread



WTH is up with these pics you are posting? Are they of any importance to you.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Quoting robert88:


lmao...maybe he will get one right one day.


more right than you i strongly suspect
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Link
Quoting scooster67:
14 day precipitation for the North East.

Link

And still raining. Hang in there my northern brothers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
646. ackee
Quoting kmanislander:


Very similar in terms of recurvature but not in terms of activity. The Caribbean has to watch for late season storms from cold fronts this year, particularly the NW Caribbean.
think we see another TOMAS guess westrn cuba and the caymans should be on there gaurds later on in the seasons then
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MJO Influence on tropical cyclogenesis

Although tropical cyclones occur throughout the boreal warm season (typically May–November) in both the north Pacific and the north Atlantic basins, in any given year there are periods of enhanced/suppressed activity within the season. There is evidence that the MJO modulates this activity (particularly for the strongest storms) by providing a large-scale environment that is favorable (or unfavorable) for development. MJO-related descending motion is not favorable for tropical storm development. However, MJO-related ascending motion is a favorable pattern for thunderstorm formation within the tropics, which is quite favorable for tropical storm development. As the MJO progresses eastward, the favored region for tropical cyclone activity also shifts eastward from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific and finally to the Atlantic basin.

There is an inverse relationship between tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific basin and the north Atlantic basin, however. When one basin is active, the other is normally quiet, and vice versa. The main reason for this appears to be the phase of the MJO, which is normally in opposite modes between the two basins at any given time.[5] While this relationship appears robust, the MJO is one of many factors that contribute to the development of tropical cyclones. For example, sea surface temperatures must be sufficiently warm and vertical wind shear must be sufficiently weak for tropical disturbances to form and persist.[6] However, the MJO also influences these conditions that facilitate or suppress tropical cyclone formation. The MJO is monitored routinely by both the USA National Hurricane Center and the USA Climate Prediction Center during the Atlantic hurricane (tropical cyclone) season to aid in anticipating periods of relative activity or inactivity.[7]
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
So long for tonight folks. Have a great evening and see you all tomorrow.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Areas Impacted so far this season the most:
a: northern leeward islands emily irene now maria
b: mexico(yucatan aswell) arlene, harvey
c: the US Coast irene lee, maybe nate
d: bermuda, lots of brushes no direct storm, jose katia gert franklin cindy
last year 2010
a: mexico karl alex hermine richard etc: the mexico year
b: belieze- believe it or not matthew, richard alex
c: bermuda- igor fiona lots of brushes as well
d: leewards altogether earl(northern leewards) tomas (southern and central leewards) biggest difference between this year and last years season so far is that we actually have storms make landfall in the US and the northern islands are getting pounded this season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
14 day precipitation for the North East.

Link

And still raining. Hang in there my northern brothers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:


i know what left is nut head
Just checking. You had us all worried.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 605
639. 7544
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


you think she may take the southern path of the cone ? hmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting BDADUDE:
Its moving west dude. Thats left.


i know what left is nut head
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:


Look at the bottom of the post.
See number of comments.
If # of comments is less than 100, add name to list.

Repeat as necessary.


I've been a memeber since July 2010, but most of the time just lurk and learn from the blog, but I have 71 posts. Does that make me a troll or a persona non grata?
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
Well, as I said before read the 5 pm on Maria to get the 11 pm update. Status quo.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting will40:
well they did shift Maria left
Its moving west dude. Thats left.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 605
Quoting Hhunter:
still sticking with cat2/3 into La


lmao...maybe he will get one right one day.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
A NW to NNW heading for Nate sure would be nice. Splitting the uprights between Corpus Christi and Galveston would give Texas the soaking it needs.

Is that too much to ask?

yes, it's too much to ask-it's never going to rain here again (or at least it seems we won't get rain ever again!)
The last thing we need is lightening, but some nice rain would sure be welcome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well they did shift Maria left
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Quoting kmanislander:
A partial catch of Maria by ASCAT this evening.

she will maintain herself until she gets further west. with all the shear shes doing pretty well.
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Quoting katharsiss:
What is MJO?
MJO stands for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's an oscillation in the large scale circulation over the tropics which moves eastward and can take anywhere from 30-60 (sometimes even longer if it gets stuck in an area of the world) days to circle the globe. The MJO is characterized by a large area of anomalous upward motion (with corresponding anomalous downward motion over the other regions of the world). This anomalous upward motion results in all kinds of anomalies, which is why it is said to be the largest source of intraseasonal (within seasons) variability in the tropics.

With regards to tropical storms and hurricanes specifically, the anomalous upward motion favors enhanced convection which naturally favors tropical disturbances to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, the anomalous rising air pushes more air up through the rest of the atmosphere, resulting in more surface convergence, more upper divergence, lower surface pressures, and a moister air column.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
628. 7544
maria is still moving west <-------
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting ackee:
DO u think this year steering pattern are similar to last no system seem have made more souther track throught the carrb into the gulf been notice this trend in recent seasons on the other hand the NE carrb seem to the area of risk for tropical activity of late anythoughts


Very similar in terms of recurvature but not in terms of activity. The Caribbean has to watch for late season storms from cold fronts this year, particularly the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
For those following the sun, another X-class flare today
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katharsiss:
What is MJO?


Madden-Julian Oscillation


LOL... assistance already provided, but going to leave this one alone.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038

Tropical Storm MARIA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080307
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...MARIA RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 46.2W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT KITTS
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS RAPID MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WOULD APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
MARIA LATE THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41041 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...AND A
WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A partial catch of Maria by ASCAT this evening.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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