Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like something is missing in the recipe.


Would that be an herb or a spice?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Orca said I have to decontaminate before I come back to his place....worried about communicable disease from Dewey's blog.

Yeah, Orca is a Stickler for Healthy Conditions.
He runs a very Health-Conscious blog. Everyone who goes in there gets sick.
Amazing....
But we have to excuse him, I guess.
He is Canadian after all, Eh?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
KATIA, MARIA AND NOW NATE... how far this season is going to go? Alpha? Beta?...
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Quoting TomTaylor:
mm, not sure I totally agree.

Speed shear would be indicated by the LLC running out ahead, or at least trying, of the MLC/main convective blob. In this case, the LLC does not appear to be doing that. Although we do have a lopsided convection scheme with regards to the center, the lopsidedness is from N to S, not E to W. What that tells me is that there is Southerly shear and greater surface divergence (trade winds pile up on that side) and upper divergence along the northern side, favoring a lopsided convection scheme.

Don't get me wrong, the fast motion of this storm doesn't help at all, it makes surface convergence very difficult. CIMSS maps reflect this



Maria's LLC is displaced WSW of the main area of convection, and is now fully exposed.
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Quoting FLdewey:


I think it's illegal in some states no matter what.
yep some things you just can not say yes to
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@45HR 00Z GFS:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


Not all of us with fewer than 100 comments are trolls....some of us are just long-time lurkers.


Member since has to be taken in consideration.... And most important, the kind of comment....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
713. Ylee
Maybe it's a recipe for Trollhouse Brownies....
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Quoting pottery:

LOL, yeah.
Keeping busy while nursing a bum shoulder.
(Full report on Orca's Medical Emergency Blog).

Keeping one eye on Maria (dont tell the wife)

Good to see you.


Orca said I have to decontaminate before I come back to his place....worried about communicable disease from Dewey's blog.
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Quoting hcubed:


Look at the bottom of the post.
See number of comments.
If # of comments is less than 100, add name to list.

Repeat as necessary.


Not all of us with fewer than 100 comments are trolls....some of us are just long-time lurkers.
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710. DFWjc
Quoting wxobsvps:


You think so?


No, sir, I don't...well, atleast for now, i do have the option to change it, but don't expect it....
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Well but what about threat to the northern Antilles, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the over populated U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.


Who said we are over populated? ;-)

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
post 699, i am pro life too!Innonece ones need protection!
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Looks like something is missing in the recipe.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
Areas Impacted so far this season the most:
a: northern leeward islands emily irene now maria
b: mexico(yucatan aswell) arlene, harvey
c: the US Coast irene lee, maybe nate
d: bermuda, lots of brushes no direct storm, jose katia gert franklin cindy
last year 2010
a: mexico karl alex hermine richard etc: the mexico year
b: belieze- believe it or not matthew, richard alex
c: bermuda- igor fiona lots of brushes as well
d: leewards altogether earl(northern leewards) tomas (southern and central leewards) biggest difference between this year and last years season so far is that we actually have storms make landfall in the US and the northern islands are getting pounded this season
Wow... cant believe u left the Bahamas off this, with Bret, Emily and Irene....
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Where do you guys suppose Granny is from?

Funny that she has the Celsius temp included in her "secret" recipe. She is right on top of things!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:




Just another day in paradise....hmmm no that's you.

I'm soaking up as much sun as I can before the snow flys.

How about yourself? Still constructing and pottery..ing (sp?)?

LOL, yeah.
Keeping busy while nursing a bum shoulder.
(Full report on Orca's Medical Emergency Blog).

Keeping one eye on Maria (dont tell the wife)

Good to see you.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Farthest East. In order of longitude and threat to the CONUS
Well but what about threat to the northern Antilles, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the over populated U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
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Quoting Skyepony:
BP clearing tar balls dumped on Ala. shore by Lee


Thanks Skye,
Was hoping this would come up in the blog tonight...so sad to see all the havoc to marine life..i live down here and have seen the corruption first hand..man can be bought off but who will speak for the innocent ones?...when someone does bring it to the local media's attention they write them off as radicals and not one word of their plight is seen..
rant over...
73 and 63%RH here in Myrtle Grove,P'Cola
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Quoting kmanislander:


The CV season is for the Eastern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas. October and November is the NW and Central Caribbean, Florida and the Central and Northern Bahamas IMO.
thats about right with cv season ending the first week of october then storm focus shifts to nw carb gom sw atlantic for whats left with storms that follow a sw to ne track then by mid nov big drop off in cyclones normally
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Wow man....., that Margaret Tacher GrandmaTroll, really did the the job of looking for that recipe....



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


That's just sick!

Sorry!
Reality suxxs though.
You have to face it, you know?

Tomorrow you get Boiled Potatos.
Friday is Baked....
Saturday, Roasted.
Sunday, Fries.
etc etc..

Enjoy!
Be Happy!

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080











What is this???...Interesting
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Quoting Skyepony:
Flooding in NE is occurring due to Lee remnants. Hersey, PA area has some really high creeks.


Lee went to Nebraska?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
nailed irene 10 days before hit!Big joe!
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Quoting pottery:

This is True.....

heheheh, how you doing, PotatoHead?


Just another day in paradise....hmmm no that's you.

I'm soaking up as much sun as I can before the snow flys.

How about yourself? Still constructing and pottery..ing (sp?)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
687. Skyepony (Mod)
Flooding in NE is occurring due to Lee remnants. Hersey, PA area has some really high creeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

This is True.....

heheheh, how you doing, PotatoHead?


Your on a roll tonight ;)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
685. LBAR
Is it at all possible that Maria is "sling-shot" through the steering currents due to her fast movement?
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Quoting pottery:

Brownies???
It's Mashed Pertaters fer you, my friend!


That's just sick!
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682. Skyepony (Mod)
BP clearing tar balls dumped on Ala. shore by Lee
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I'm a lout.

Jersey Shore Grandma, will you make me some Brownies?

This is True.....

heheheh, how you doing, PotatoHead?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting wxobsvps:


She's just a friendly Grandma that likes to share recipes and is a fan of Jersey Shore. where is the harm?


Maybe she knows Grandpato4...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
00Z GFS Init:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting Hhunter:


more right than you i strongly suspect


He is nothing but pure hype.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I'm a lout.

Jersey Shore Grandma, will you make me some Brownies?

Brownies???
It's Mashed Pertaters fer you, my friend!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Experimental MJO Forecasts
MJO Wheeler/Hendon RMM Plots

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
675. DFWjc
Quoting wxobsvps:


She's just a friendly Grandma that likes to share recipes and is a fan of Jersey Shore. where is the harm?


Current Score...
You = 0
Troll= 1+1+1
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Quoting wxobsvps:


She's just a friendly Grandma that likes to share recipes and is a fan of Jersey Shore. where is the harm?


I'm a lout.

Jersey Shore Grandma, will you make me some Brownies?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDADUDE:
I dont understand the point of these things??


I think he wants is to replace the XTRP Model with his nick?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.