Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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821. MTWX
Quoting louisianaboy444:


With all these troughs i still think we have a hard winter coming up for the CONUS

Are your leaves turning already too? It's really odd to see ours start until at least mid October. The squirrels have been making quick work of my oak trees too. Chewed up acorns everywhere!!
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


I should have rephrased.. yes a Caribbean cruiser would suffice, but although it could come off Africa, it would have to stay as an open wave until the Caribbean. At this point it does not seem likely that Atlantic crossers like Maria/Katia would cause problems (it should be noted that generally storms that develop that far east don't cause problems anyway). I do think we will have at least some system to worry about at some point, namely a system that sneaks into the Caribbean.


I do find it hard to fathom that Lee will be our last US landfall, admittedly.
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Quoting JLPR2:


How so?
The previous position was 13.2N, 43.1W

OOOps!
I thought it was 14.something earlier...
My mistake.

Im out.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


I should have rephrased.. yes a Caribbean cruiser would suffice, but although it could come off Africa, it would have to stay as an open wave until the Caribbean. At this point it does not seem likely that Atlantic crossers like Maria/Katia would cause problems (it should be noted that generally storms that develop that far east don't cause problems anyway). I do think we will have at least some system to worry about at some point, namely a system that sneaks into the Caribbean.


With all these troughs i still think we have a hard winter coming up for the CONUS
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good night all i give you this



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1245 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR
...
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
EASTERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 445 AM EDT

* AT 1236 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN PRINCE GEORGES
AND CHARLES COUNTY REPORTED SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...WITH
NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING PARTICULARLY IN THE WALDORF AND
BRANDYWINE AREAS. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY
RAIN INCLUDE BOWIE...CLINTON...CROFTON...FORT MEADE...GLEN
BURNIE...GREEN HAVEN...KETTERING...LA PLATA...LARGO...MARLTON...
MILLERSVILLE...MITCHELLVILLE...ODENTON...PASADENA ...SEVERN...SEVERNA
PARK...SOUTH GATE...ST. CHARLES...UPPER MARLBORO...WALDORF...
WOODMORE AND RIVERIA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR ESTIMATES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 3 HOURS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...IN
A BAND FROM LA PLATA AND WALDORF TO UPPER MARLBORO AND BOWIE...TO
CROFTON AND MILLERSVILLE. WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR STILL OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. STAY OFF THE ROADS UNLESS IT
IS AN EMERGENCY! NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER
COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY
APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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I am getting nailed right now with flooding in westchester county.
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812. JLPR2
In 36hrs Maria is going to get a little boost, that is if it manages to slow down.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting quicksilverskys:


Very long time lurkers! At WU since around 2002 or so and this blog since probly 8 yrs? not sure when it started. Posted maybe 4-5 times. Some of us are here to watch the weather, learn & for the entertainment of watchin ya'll :) I have noticed way more "grumpyness" & antagonism especially to new people recently, as that post shows. There are some very intelligent & Fun people to watch too. It can be a great blog. Sometimes everyone just needs to take a parachute & leap off the soapbox:) Without new people, new Ideas etc this blog would really suffer. Share the blog, dont hog the toys & play nice:)


Nice pony!
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Quoting BrockBerlin:



At the moment we have a nice hurricane shield up (for the CONUS) persistent troughing off the east coast, and a ridge over part of the Northern Gulf. It would take a Carib cruiser (probably homegrown) to affect the CONUS at this point.


I disagree. It won't necessarily take a homegrown storm to have a US hit. As you say, a Caribbean cruiser would do it. The Texas ridge is persistent, but it is not dominating east of its native homeland like it was last year.
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Quoting LillyMyrrh:


Not all of us with fewer than 100 comments are trolls....some of us are just long-time lurkers.


Very long time lurkers! At WU since around 2002 or so and this blog since probly 8 yrs? not sure when it started. Posted maybe 4-5 times. Some of us are here to watch the weather, learn & for the entertainment of watchin ya'll :) I have noticed way more "grumpyness" & antagonism especially to new people recently, as that post shows. There are some very intelligent & Fun people to watch too. It can be a great blog. Sometimes everyone just needs to take a parachute & leap off the soapbox:) Without new people, new Ideas etc this blog would really suffer. Share the blog, dont hog the toys & play nice:)
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Excellent video...


Muchas gracias.
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Quoting pottery:
See you guys tomorrow.
Watching Maria, in case she does something un-predicted.
It's Tropical Weather, after all!


Me too... Goodnite all...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting pottery:
PotatoHead...

No Prob.
I have myself on ignore for years.....

:):))


I just wish there was a "pay attention" button.
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804. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

13.3N is a jump south....


How so?
The previous position was 13.2N, 43.1W
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting PrivateIdaho:




Excellent video...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
802. JRRP
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Quoting robert88:
I don't care if you have 100 healthy monster shoe in waves coming off Africa..They are all fish with a weak subtropical ridge in place. The pattern is really going to have to change


You are acting like this year is the same as last year, when it's not. Do not forget, we have already had three US landfalls, including one hurricane landfall.
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See you guys tomorrow.
Watching Maria, in case she does something un-predicted.
It's Tropical Weather, after all!
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Quoting Bielle:
Does post#607 not show the Member Since, Number of posts line on anyone else's screen? If it is absent, does anyone know how that is done? Thanks


No, it doesn't show.
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PotatoHead...

No Prob.
I have myself on ignore for years.....

:):))
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Quoting nweatherlover:


Not free! We pay for it. Just not an arm and a leg so to speak! :)

Looks like the East Coast and Bermuda have dodged a bullet with Katia.

True!
Nothing is Free.
Here we pay National Insurance which is a Tax for Medical Services.
But EVERYONE is entitled to the Service whether they are working/paying, or not.
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I don't care if you have 100 healthy monster shoe in waves coming off Africa..They are all fish with a weak subtropical ridge in place. The pattern is really going to have to change
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks for watching my back, my Friend!
(and with friends like you, etc etc..)

heheheh


Anytime!!...the least I can do. Oh and stop quoting me 'cause I am putting you on ignore right.....now!
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks for watching my back, my Friend!
(and with friends like you, etc etc..)

heheheh


I remember when I saw that documentary and comented to my Brother in law about it...
He thought I was the psycho and a communist...

But I would pay the taxes.... happily..... I they gave me a reasonably HC system...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
looks like Maria gets Bermuda on this run
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori help me out what is dat CONUS stuff im confused


You don't know what CONUS means? Wow. :P

It's short for Contiguous United States. Or in other words, the Lower 48.
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Quoting pottery:

GASP!!
I had no idea that Canada was so Civilized....

Free HealthCare, huh?

:):))


Not free! We pay for it. Just not an arm and a leg so to speak! :)

Looks like the East Coast and Bermuda have dodged a bullet with Katia.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





i think the center of are M storm has this refrom


AL, 14, 2011090800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 452W, 45, 1002, TS


too 13N i put on the LL and it looks like it right on the 13N line or vary close

13.3N is a jump south....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Very true...

Got family that went ill in Spain, were taken to Emergency and were treated, Labs done and medicated for only 1 Euro...

It's what people pay taxes for.
Or, it should be!

Health Care is free here too.
But you can go Private if you wish.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Here comes the Train again!!


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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's possible, given that Nate is a slow moving system, which leaves it prone to unpredictability due to changes within the synoptic pattern. However, I do not consider it particularly likely at this time, as it is hard to ignore a solid consensus.
Kori help me out what is dat CONUS stuff im confused
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African Photo Link

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks like 00z GFS still likes Mexico. However, it did shift a good bit north.





i think the center of are M storm has this refrom


AL, 14, 2011090800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 452W, 45, 1002, TS


too 13N i put on the LL and it looks like it right on the 13N line or vary close
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00Z at 144hrs headed into MX...pretty far S too...NEXT
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I just didn't want sunline to insult sickos.

Thanks for watching my back, my Friend!
(and with friends like you, etc etc..)

heheheh
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..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks like 00z GFS still likes Mexico. However, it did shift a good bit north.


yea he got close to Texas
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Quoting bigwes6844:
DAMN just got off and now we got Maria and Nate. WTF!I went to work seeing TD 14 and invest 96L. does anybody see that Nate may end up in LA. Cuz its moving slow like Lee. I hate slow storms i really do.


It's possible, given that Nate is a slow moving system, which leaves it prone to unpredictability due to changes within the synoptic pattern. However, I do not consider it particularly likely at this time, as it is hard to ignore a solid consensus.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Here comes the Train again!!
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Beautiful image of West Africa in #765 sunlinepr :)
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Just a flashlight in the woods compared to NY,NY and rest of eastern sprawl.


tru dat.
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Quoting sunlinepr:

It appear that the train continue, at least for now.Good evening everyone.
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Quoting pottery:

It's not so much a "Health Care System" as an "Eat Bad and we will supply the needed drugs so that you can stay alive System".

It is happening all over the World.
Illness is a Zillion Dollar Industry.
There is no money in Health.


Very true...

Got family that went ill in Spain, were taken to Emergency and were treated, Labs done and medicated for only 1 Euro...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting pottery:

Why not?
Beats 'mentally deranged'.


I just didn't want sunline to insult sickos.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.