Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Future Ophelia just starting to come into view in bottom right corner
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


here is our little gang of pals


didn't NHC have a AOI on the blob between Katia and Maria with a 20% yesterday?
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MARIA is near death. NEXT!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
Quoting MoltenIce:
Your attitude isn't helping at all. Katia and Irene are not pathetic in terms of intensity. Oh, both didn't reach Category 5 strength, maybe that's the reason why they are pathetic.

So basically, you want 15 Category 5s that make landfall on CONUS at that intensity?

Remember 2010? People went zzzzz after Colin but the blog exploded after Danielle, Earl and Igor.
Maybe robert will get a Cat 5 right up his rear end and then he will be happy.
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here is our little gang of pals
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Ophelia,we haven't met yet,but I sense we will spend much time together in the coming weeks
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Nate,I know it's slow going now but Nate,Don't be late
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Maria,we are just getting to know thee
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Katia,how we loved thee
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I'll keep an eye on things, Im well rested.
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862. THL3
Still have a fire going here in Waller/Grimes County Texas. 3rd day. Orange glow to the east of me about 2 miles away.
http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/t/THL3/2 -thumb.jpg


Time to catch some shut eye before sunrise.
Member Since: December 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone else thinks Maria is moving out of its place?

At this pace it seems it will reach the western little blob of convection while loosing the larger east blob.

Looks like a rather minute blob is forming over the centre.
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Quoting robert88:
This season has been pretty zzzzz.... It's nice if you like to track numerous weak pathetic storms one after another. You have horrible conditions in the Atlantic. Storms can't bomb out because of the massive amounts of dry sinking air that spread through the Atlantic for a long period of time. It's been very stable out there. The Caribbean has been closed for business as well. We are basically in the same pattern as 2009...maybe just slightly different. Now we are possibly getting back to the routine of fish..MX..fish..MX. It would be nice to track some text book majors that don't weaken so quick and sputter the rest of the way. Katia was nice for about an hour or so.
Your attitude isn't helping at all. Katia and Irene are not pathetic in terms of intensity. Oh, both didn't reach Category 5 strength, maybe that's the reason why they are pathetic.

So basically, you want 15 Category 5s that make landfall on CONUS at that intensity?

Remember 2010? People went zzzzz after Colin but the blog exploded after Danielle, Earl and Igor.
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Quoting robert88:
This season has been pretty zzzzz.... It's nice if you like to track numerous weak pathetic storms one after another. You have horrible conditions in the Atlantic. Storms can't bomb out because of the massive amounts of dry sinking air that spread through the Atlantic for a long period of time. It's been very stable out there. The Caribbean has been closed for business as well. We are basically in the same pattern as 2009...maybe just slightly different. Now we are possibly getting back to the routine of fish..MX..fish..MX. It would be nice to track some text book majors that don't weaken so quick and sputter the rest of the way. Katia was nice for about an hour or so.


So... just because Nate might hit Mexico, that automatically means we're entering into last year's pattern? Okay.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Yeah I agree. Watching that hefty spin coming off Africa...
I just hope some of the wickedness manages to sneak some rain into Texas.
southern texas may get a touch of rain from Nate, prayers for you folks in texas
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H.Katia's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_6amGMT and ending 8Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 37.8186n75.501w-9VA3 is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 13mph(20.9k/h) on a heading of 346.8degrees(NNW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over WestSayville(LongIsland)NewYork ~2days1hour from now

Copy&paste 37.8186n75.501w-9va3, 28.2n67.6w-28.8n68.4w, 28.8n68.4w-29.4n69.3w, 29.4n69.3w-30.3n69.9w, 30.3n69.9w-31.4n70.2w, isp, 30.3n69.9w-40.72n73.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 7Sept_12amGMT)
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This season has been pretty zzzzz.... It's nice if you like to track numerous weak pathetic storms one after another. You have horrible conditions in the Atlantic. Storms can't bomb out because of the massive amounts of dry sinking air that spread through the Atlantic for a long period of time. It's been very stable out there. The Caribbean has been closed for business as well. We are basically in the same pattern as 2009...maybe just slightly different. Now we are possibly getting back to the routine of fish..MX..fish..MX. It would be nice to track some text book majors that don't weaken so quick and sputter the rest of the way. Katia was nice for about an hour or so.
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Quoting Bielle:


Usually TIA is "Thanks in advance".


Unless you're watching the movie "Blood Diamond" in that case it means something else.
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Quoting Levi32:


Maria's LLC is displaced WSW of the main area of convection, and is now fully exposed.
I stand corrected then. Earlier I was unsure of exactly where the center is, but if its exposed now to the west of the convection, then that's definitely speed shear.
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853. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL STORM KULAP (T1114)
15:00 PM JST September 8 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kulap (1000 hPa) located at 25.5N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 28.7N 130.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 30.7N 127.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 32.3N 125.3E - Tropical Depression
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Ummm... no.
We're only halfway through the season, and the pattern could change. It ain't over till it's over.

ok well you know what u just may be right i just saw the gfs alo of stuffing going on around here in about 2 weeks but that is so far away it may be nothing,,,lol
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Future Ophelia and/or Phillippe as the Wavey Train in Africa rolls along?

Link
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I just wish there was a "pay attention" button.

What?
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Quoting robert88:
Looks like Maria could become an open wave if she doesn't improve soon.



Another reason for a more Westerly route ......if she does not get stronger.....she keeps going WEST
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Whoa hey, is Katia trying to make a run for category 2 again? The intermediate advisory suggests it may happen now.
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Looks like Maria could become an open wave if she doesn't improve soon.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i oder all rain too go too TX


Yes Sir!
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Quoting swflurker:
Are you really ready to go out on that limb? Pretty slim % against the NHC track?



Didn't really go out on any limb.....there is also Model support also now......


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Are you really ready to go out on that limb? Pretty slim % against the NHC track?
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOt sure MARIA makes it North of Puerto Rico....have to wait and see about the timing as the above is about 7 days out........
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MidLevel Steering.......looks very West through the Caribbean at this moment.
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Yeah I agree. Watching that hefty spin coming off Africa...
I just hope some of the wickedness manages to sneak some rain into Texas.
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NOt sure MARIA makes it North of Puerto Rico....have to wait and see about the timing as the above is about 7 days out........
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Sherwood this is gonna be a wicked 2nd half of the season coming.....
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Oh, hah. TampaSpin beat me to it.

Hey, I wanted to thank you for running the chatroom, TampaSpin. I really enjoyed chatting during Lee's landfall the other night.


YOur welcome........i keep it up all the time. It actually is part of my site......it works pretty good tho.
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Oh, hah. TampaSpin beat me to it.

Hey, I wanted to thank you for running the chatroom, TampaSpin. I really enjoyed chatting during Lee's landfall the other night.
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Something interesting about the NHC intensity Forecast. Looking at the Models it shows a much stronger storm then they are saying after the next 72 hours..........HUM!


Actually the time line is correct my bad......i just looked at it again.
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Quoting oceanblues32:
hello goodmorning all so i am looking at things as if southeast florida is in good shape this hurrican season and we should have nothing really to worry about because all canes are curving out to sea. Is this a pretty good assumption?


Ummm... no.
We're only halfway through the season, and the pattern could change. It ain't over till it's over.
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Quoting Bielle:


Usually TIA is "Thanks in advance".
oh okay never knew that.
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Quoting oceanblues32:
hello goodmorning all so i am looking at things as if southeast florida is in good shape this hurrican season and we should have nothing really to worry about because all canes are curving out to sea. Is this a pretty good assumption?



YOu just jinxed yourself.......LOL! NO, the season is not nearly over......we are only almost 1/2 way through it.........
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Quoting Bielle:


Usually TIA is "Thanks in advance".


Tampa International Airport......if your a local in this area........LOL
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We might just have 4 named storms all the same time in the Atlantic.........LOOK at the Spin starting off the Coast of Africa..........WOW!

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hello goodmorning all so i am looking at things as if southeast florida is in good shape this hurrican season and we should have nothing really to worry about because all canes are curving out to sea. Is this a pretty good assumption?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
60 hours.



Which model id this? I've seen it before PMSL?
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Quoting Hou77083:


I've been a memeber since July 2010, but most of the time just lurk and learn from the blog, but I have 71 posts. Does that make me a troll or a persona non grata?


If your sign up date were today, you'd be on the list.

If you were a member since 2010, and have been through 71 names, then you'd be on the list.

I'll look at a few of the posts before I filter.

It's just my way of finding a way to quickly go through the posts. I've seen that most of the trouble comes from low count posters. There are exceptions.

If you've been lurking since 2010, then you've seen the reasons people use some sort of filter.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting bigwes6844:
Kool now i know and what does TIA stand for too


Usually TIA is "Thanks in advance".
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PLEASE SHARE - AMBER ALERT ISSUED FOR 3 YEAR OLD KIENAN

AN AMBER ALERT HAS BEEN ACTIVATED IN THE SEARCH FOR 3 YEAR OLD KIENAN HEBERT

Elk Valley RCMP have issued an AMBER ALERT in its efforts to locate 3 year old Kienan Hebert of Sparwood BC, reported missing from the family home this morning, Wednesday September 7, 2011.
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i oder all rain too go too TX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
825. JLPR2
Anyone else thinks Maria is moving out of its place?

At this pace it seems it will reach the western little blob of convection while loosing the larger east blob.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
The remnants of T.S. Lee are causing minor flooding in the New England states. The water table just can't take anymore....

roads underwater, lowlands standing water....and t.s. lee just kinda trickled small droplets....a big rainstorm would cause huge problems at this point.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You don't know what CONUS means? Wow. :P

It's short for Contiguous United States. Or in other words, the Lower 48.
Kool now i know and what does TIA stand for too
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.