Wilma--major threat to Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2005

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Wilma is steadily intensifying. The hurricane hunters reached the storm at 4:05 pm EDT, finding maximum surface winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 989 mb. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection is starting to wrap all the way around the center, and infrared imagery hints at a warm center spot where an eye may form by Tuesday. The hurricane hunters noted that spiral banding looked good, and satellite imagery also shows an impressive amount of spiral banding developing on all sides. The dry air intruding on the northwest side is starting to mix out, and upper-level outflow is well established on the south and east sides of the storm.

The upper level environment continues to look favorable for intensification, with low wind shear and an anti-cyclone on top generating good outflow. Intensification into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday still seems like a good bet. Once Wilma gets further north into the Gulf of Mexico, shear increases as a upper-level trough of low pressure generates strong westerly winds over Wilma. This shear will likely reduce Wilma's winds by at least 20 mph.


Figure 1. Track of 1974's Hurricane Fifi, which killed over 8000 people in Honduras.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and some erratic motion is possible. All of the forecast models predict a generally west or west-northwest motion over the next two days. However, today's southerly motion at 2 - 5 mph is something none of the forecast models called for, except the UKMET model. This gives me some concern that Wilma may pass close enough to Honduras to create heavy downpours of 10 - 15 inches that would cause severe flooding and significant mudslides. It doesn't take a very strong hurricane to kill thousands in Honduras, as 1974's Category 2 Hurricane Fifi demonstrated. Hurricane Fifi moved along the north of the coast of Honduras at about latitude 16.1, bringing heavy rains of up to 24 inches that killed 8000 people. Wilma is currently at latitude 15.9, and looks like it will also be a Category 2 hurricane as it passes along the north shore of Honduras. Heavy rains will begin in northeastern Honduras tonight, and may well continue for three days. Hopefully, Wilma will pull north as forecast and not subject the entire coast of Honduras to flooding rains as Fifi did. I do expect severe flooding in northeast Honduras that will cause heavy loss of life. Better disaster prevention measures were implemented in Honduras after the devastation Hurricane Mitch wrought in 1998, so hopefully the government will be able to get the people in flood-prone areas to safe shelter and reduce the death toll.

Wilma presents it's next greatest threat to Mexico, which is still cleaning up the damage from Hurricane Emily earlier this year. Heavy rains in Belize, Nicaragua, and northern Guatemala may also create flooding problems in those nations. If Wilma grows large enough to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, El Salvador and the southern portions of Guatemala hard-hit by Hurricane Stan may get addtional rains that could be a problem. However, the computer models are not indicating that this will happen.

The models have reached more of a consensus this afternoon on the longer term track of Wilma. After struggling mightily to properly resolve a weak trough of low pressure over the central U.S., the models now agree that this trough should be able to pull Wilma west-northwest by Tuesday. Later in the week, a strong low pressure system currently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east and exert a strong pull on Wilma, turning her more northwest by Thursday. After Wilma makes a landfall near Cancun/Cozumel or a passage through the Yucatan Channel, the trough is expected to pull her northeastward, resulting in a landfall on the west coast of Florida somewhere between Key West and Tampa. The timing and location of the U.S. landfall forecasts look like this:

Candian model: Friday, Sarasota
GFS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
NOGAPS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
GFDL model: Sunday, Tampa
UKMET model: Wilma stalls out over the Yucatan at day 6; eventual track after that not known.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon, and we'll have a much better idea of the likely U.S. landfall point on Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update in the morning about 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

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219. WillJax
11:13 PM GMT on September 12, 2007
No sick of running, go to Iraq
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
218. sickofrunning
3:18 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
Would you go to Cancun?

I live in New Orleans--evacuated to Texas from Katrina--then left Texas becasue of Rita. Thought it was dumb luck. Now I am supposed to to to Cancun in the morning for a well needed vacation paid for 6 months ago....WOULD YOU GO?
217. a22
8:39 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
i live in miami do you think i will go under any watches or warnings
216. snowboy
3:28 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Just in case there's anyone checking in foir info, here's the 11 am NHC discussion. Batten down the hatches in south Florida for the weekend!

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS
FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST
HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.5N 80.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 75 KT
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
215. watchingnva
2:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
ok wannabe/fagfrog...lol...anyways...as to the post b4 of bastardis...i seriously dont see this storm effecting the mid-atlantic/northeast much at all unless something drastically changes...just my 2 cents, what do yall think??
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
214. ClydeFrog
2:12 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
I THINK DR JEFF SHOULD STEP IN WITH LEFTY, I THINK IT IS WRONG FOR HIM TO TRY TO BE A FRONT SEAT FORECASTER, SO TO SPEAK. DR JEFF SHOULD BE CONCERNED NO COLLEGE DEGREE AND HE IS TRYING TO MAKE FORECASTS (WHICH ARE JUST WAY OFF), THERE COULD BE NEWBIES WHO THINK HE IS A METEOROLOGIST AND TAKE HIS BS SERIOUSLY. LEFTY YOU HAVE ISSUES, YOU NEED TO BE HEARD YOU NEED TO BE MAKING PREDICTIONS, ITS WEIRD.


PLEASE IF YOU WANT TO FORECAST.... FINISH COLLEGE AND START YOUR OWN BLOG.... TX

LEFTY IS A JOKE!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
213. MandyFSU
2:06 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
The #1 lesson I've learned from this season (Besides the ever popular "It ain't over till it's over.") is that those storms never do what they're told. Katrina was posed to hardly come off the coast of Florida, but it ended up going in @ LA. It slowed down, went southwest when it was posed to northwest... zigged when it shoulda zagged... know what I mean? I'm just afraid it's a crap shoot until she hits the tip of the Yucatan and we can see where she is in proximity to the California factor... but that's just me...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
212. CoconutCreekFLA
2:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Yeah, go to accuweather.com and there's a pretty pix of him saying "read my .. for free today"
211. CoconutCreekFLA
2:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Nash: if you are still there, talk to you later. Gotta run. We'll know more in an hour. I hope they can narrow the cone of doom down a bit.
210. nash28
2:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Is that Bastardi's post from today?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
209. CoconutCreekFLA
1:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Nash, just an amateur here. Here's bastardi's free sample take on Wacky Wilma....

In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was Charley, this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike Charley, which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.
208. nash28
1:52 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Good question Coconut. Can anyone tell via the water vapor imagery whether the system out of Cali is ahead of the storm or behind?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
207. CoconutCreekFLA
1:48 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
It all depends on when that jet stream gets down here. Does anyone know if it is moving as fast as, slower than, or faster than they have expected? I guess the faster it comes, the more south Wilma will go.
206. nash28
1:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
I still think that is too far south. More towards Sarasota seems likely.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
205. CoconutCreekFLA
1:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
In the link I just posted, I'm between Coral Springs and Deerfield Beach. If you look closely you'll see me waving :)
204. CoconutCreekFLA
1:44 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Morning, everyone!

Looks like Wilma is going to hit Florida... where o' where is the question. The Skeeter pix has her coming over all the sofla morning groups homes...

Link
203. watchingnva
1:41 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
so hows everyone doing this morning...any thoughts on landfall and what time frame we will be getting that landfall...and i dont think that a cat3 is too high... she should have time to strenghten dramatically in the caribbean the next 2 days...then lose a little punch as she enters the cooler gulf and more hostile environment near the coast of florida...so i think 110-120mph isnt out of the question here...we'll just have to wait and see...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
202. jaxparrothead
1:39 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
I am a regular reader of Dr. Masters blog, but very rarely do I read these comments, and never do I post, but, I must agree with watchingnva, too much bitching and childish posting in here.

i hang out in bob's chatroom at the weather community and, yes, we get trolls, but we either run them off or ban them, keeps things on topic when they need to be.

just my 2 cents worth.
201. nash28
1:36 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Hey Weatherguy. I could easily be wrong, but I just can't see such a severe right hook into the Key West area. The GFDL may not be that out to lunch on this one. Just a hunch.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
200. hiseasdrifter
1:32 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
morning all,hey hokie,im a terrapin who lives in coastal n.c. i hope we give you a better game thurs.then we did lastyear.lol
199. weatherguy03
1:19 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Goodmorning!!!...Alittle update this morning on Wilma..She is finally on the move and almost a hurricane..She has begun her NW track towards the Yucatan channel and should be a hurricane by 11AM adv...Here are the rundown of all the model landfalls...

GFS, Canadian, NOGAPS:..Naples
FSU, UKMET:..Florida Straits near Key West.
GFDL:..Tampa

The SHIPS and the GFDL bring her to CAT 3 strength at landfall..

Again my thinking is this figure is alittle too high and I am still leaning towards a CAT1/2 at landfall due to increasing shear when she gets into the Gulf..

As far as landfall, Naples to Key West is my points right now, but again we still may see this get shifted even more southward during the day and the Florida straits are still not out of the question.. As far as the East Coast of Florida..Ft.Pierce southward would be affected...

Of course the only fly in the ointment has been that persistent GFDL taking it more north, we will have to see if this model comes into better agreement with the rest today..But again all of the west coast of Florida is still in the cone so everyone must be aware and monitor the situation.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
198. MandyFSU
1:17 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Hi all! Just saw the latest models (I think) seems that wouthwest florida is under the gun- for now at least. We know how these things can change- look at Katrina!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
197. palmbeacher
1:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Seems things are not looking to good for the sunshine state this morning.
196. palmbeacher
1:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
On a lighter note, Good morning Billsfan!
195. watchingnva
1:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
lol...yes...that was a complaint...one of maybe 3 I have ever typed in this blog...and this complaint was/is not to start anything (arguement or otherwise)... It is meant to end it...and it being all the grade school bickering that goes on...keep track of wilma, not lefty...lefty doesnt come in here often anymore...and neither do alot of other people because of all the bickering... so as an ending and to say it again...that post was to say stop with the childish behavoir and talk about weather, is that too much to ask, or no???....anyways thats all the "complaining" you'll see from me for some time....carry on..lol...and wilma will be a cane at next advisory...lol...will make no predictions on track till later this afternoon...and if this long blog has irratated or pissed others off, i do apologize once again...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
194. GPBurdell
1:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Riverluvr, one October hurricane went across Florida turned north and eventually hit Maryland in 1901. All the others went out to sea, caught in the westerlies. I think the chance of the east coast getting hit from the Atlantic are remote. Of course the storm could travel up the eastern seaboard as a depression and cause heavy rain and flooding, which has happened a number of times, but not much chance as a hurricane coming of the ocean.
193. billsfaninsofla
12:54 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
watching... geez, what is your problem? talk about complaining.....
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5458
192. caneman
12:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Assuming that say it hits Tampa area as a cat 3 then moves across FL......this of course is simply an assumption......what do you think the wind speeds could be on the E coast of fl when the storm exits the state?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
191. watchingnva
12:48 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
jesus christ...i sit here scrolling down, and i see wannabe bitching again...is that all you and you few friends on here can ever do? if its not political, then it has to do with lefty. do you have any good weather-related stuff to post? Or do you just sit there waiting to see something you can complain about? its a fvckin joke if you ask me and about 75% of the people who use this blog as well...I am gone for 2 weeks on business, come back..and nothing has changed...lol... what a waste of typing space...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
190. oriondarkwood
12:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
caneman,

Wilma as a Cat5 in Rock Vegas (LOL), Seriously I tend to think its going where most of the models say its going to go. But I am not making any offical predictions until tommorrow.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
189. nash28
12:26 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Very funny.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
188. rxse7en
12:21 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Wilma to hit Bedrock as a Cat 3 Hurricane-osaurus.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
187. nash28
12:19 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Good morning guys. Another interesting/nerve wracking day ahead...

Cane-- This is just a stab, but I do believe landfall will be between Tampa and Venice as a strong CAT 2 or weak CAT 3.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
186. caneman
12:16 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
anyone want to take a stab at the predicted path and strength?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
185. Hokie76
12:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Here in Palm Harbor (about 30 miles west of Tampa), we're hoping Wilma makes a hard right once she enters the gulf. Otherwise, our luck might have run out. Hasn't been a full-scale evacuation here since Elena in '85. Three bridges/causeways won't be able to empty the barrier islands after 20 years of development, so many could be stuck in their high-rises.
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
184. RiverLuvr
11:55 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
You all give me input of the chances of Wilma hopping over Keys and then forming again and coming towards NC coast.
183. FtLauderdalepunk
11:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 11a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
...Wilma begins to drift northwestward...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.

Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. All interests in western Cuba...the Yucatan Peninsula...the Florida Peninsula...and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Wilma during the next several days.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 245 miles ...400 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 210 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua /Honduras border.

Wilma has been drifting northwestward over the past several hours...and a slow motion to the west-northwest or northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane today.

Reports from NOAA buoy 42057 indicate that tropical storm force winds associated with Wilma are expanding...and now extend outward up to 125 miles ...200 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...15.9 N... 80.2 W. Movement ...Drifting northwest. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$
182. FtLauderdalepunk
11:50 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
im gonna say shes a cane
181. hurricanewayne
11:30 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
Remember if you are in the 5 day forecast spot you will not be hit... That is how it has been all year! I still see Wilma not turing as sharp and going to Tampa
180. cirrus99
10:59 AM GMT on October 18, 2005

** DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 1 Degree Fahrenheit ** :-|)

http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Los_Angeles.html

Hey did some Hollywood dude leave their champagne icebucket under the wunder thermometer ? :-)

Or is the Hurricane cooling things down in the peripheries?



179. caneman
9:32 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
TIme to due diligence and batten down the hatches! This could be a major storm when it hits florida
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
178. leftyy420
8:04 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
anybody looking for info or have any questions on wilma please stop by my blog. all are welcome

lefty's blog
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
177. timl2k5
6:38 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
wow wilma is rapidly deepening.
176. leftyy420
6:27 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
175. FtLauderdalepunk
5:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
i need to see consistancy in the model runs... The new GFS just came out and its much slower than previous runs..I do belive this is a florida storm but where in FL is up in the air
174. subtropic
5:49 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
Not really crazy about that GFDL track. That puts us on the south side and it looks like the GFDL is moving it at a pretty good clip. Forward speed gets added to sustained winds (whatever they are at that point). Could be some nasty gusts. On the other hand, there would have to be some serious sheer going on in that scenario. Maybe not so much sustained wind to add on to? Ftl, your thoughts?
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
173. ndcohn
5:38 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
seems like there is a bit of a chance the nhc could give this 75mph winds at 2am based on the central pressure drop... of course they dont like upgrading without flight level winds that prove it. They also dont like strenghtening storms too much on partial advisories. They could just keep it the SQ or nudge it up to 70.
172. FtLauderdalepunk
5:34 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
LOOKIE WHAT THE GFDL IS DOING...SOUTH FL STORM???


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


171. 8888888889gg
5:31 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
i got a new post out and it is a fun one to take a look any one
170. CalGal
5:23 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
Not my husband. I wish. If you have some advice on that action plan I'd be glad to hear it. But right now I'm off to bed.

Thanks for all your advice, all of you. I'll go back to sitting on the sidelines now, unless I get freaked out again. I'm born and raised in California and not too well travelled. I have enjoyed learning so much from you all over the past few days. It's fascinating.
See ya.
169. dr0b3rts
5:21 AM GMT on October 18, 2005
Here are the latest models.



Click here for more images, links.



Some landfall possibilities:

GFDL, Ft Myers, 10/22 5AM EDT.

NoGaPS, Naples, 10/22 7PM EDT.

GFS, Marathon, 10/22 1PM EDT.

BAMM, Ponce de Leon Bay/Everglades, 10/22 6PM EDT.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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