Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2011

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East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.


Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.


Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)
A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.
Crockett Texas Wildfire 2
Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)
This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.
Bastrop's Burnin
Magnolia Fire (shanzi)
Mighty close!
Magnolia Fire
flood (lazzyhazy1)
flood

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1531. will40
Quoting thesituation:
Whats a fish storm mean? Saw someone talking about one.



a storm that affects nothing but the shipping lanes and never hits land
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Quoting BDADUDE:
More Katia


wow, I love that water. Makes you want to just go jump in. :)

We don't have pretty water like that....
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storm that stays out at sea
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's quite possible.
I rarely make a forecast but I've been saying for days this one has Prince Edward Island written all over it. I guess I need to animate my avatar and wave my hands around to get anyone to notice.


Cosmic, are you in PEI? Yarmouth, NS here.
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1527. Dakster
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Doesn't matter what anyone "WISHES" for . It will go where it goes and nothing anyone says or does will change that. No-one is wishing for it to hit anywhere but discussing and debating possibilities. Conditions can and will constantly change and a good friendly debate is a learning tool.




According to some here the US Government is capable of making them go where they want.... (sarcasm:on)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11657
Quoting jdjnola:


I KNEW IT! Haha see my comment 1471 above. Sorry, Texas.

Calm down calm down, it's only a model run. Does it have a COC yet? Models are only reliable 3 days out. 127hrs is 5 days 7hrs.
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1524. BDADUDE
More Katia
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<<<<<<< Troll in training
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Ugh.

This blog is rooting for TD 14/soon to be Maria to hit land. It's sickening and quite frankly getting annoying. You know I used to be on your side. I didn't consciously wish destruction on people but I found it exciting. I enjoyed watching it. I kind of wanted to see something interesting unfold. Like during Hurricane Ike, I was really banking on him regaining major hurricane status before barreling into Texas. I was an enthusisiast. Deep down inside I practically enjoyed it, and I know most of you people are the same. The way you type, the hype you produce, the possibilities (or just fantasies) that you mention.

I came into this hurricane season with a slightly toned down attitude. As August progressed I expressed some thoughts that maybe this hurricane season won't be so bad, that the blog won't get what it craves. The NHC was just naming every little blob on the map. I really don't think it needed to take us 9 freakin' names to get a hurricane.

Anyway as you all know the East Coast was rattled a bit on August 23, a few days before Irene's approach. It threw me into a state of anxiety, which was accelerated much further as the media distorted Irene. While I was aware it was just sensationalism, it really scared me. Plus I would lurk on here and see all the fearmongering going on, which didn't help. I felt the true fear that someone feels when a hurricane is bearing down on their area. It's a horrible feeling and throws a lot of people into chaos.

I'll say you people on the Gulf Coast are VERY brave to risk this every year, or maybe just stubborn. Call me what you like but I just can't handle it. Now I go on the WU blog and here I see you people HOPING Maria (it's obviously going to receive that name soon) will hit the East Coast, don't even deny it. This is pretty obvious considering anyone who dares mention recurvature must get shot down and completely defeated. Keep in mind I realize some are trolls and that it's also VERY possible for AL14 to strike the East Coast. It may be subconsciously but I know you people crave this. It gives you a rush. Believe me I know.

However when the shoe was on the other foot I began to realize how wrong it was to feel this way. I've learned that I have to approach this like a scientist with the least possible bias, and that a storm will go where it goes. You can't wish it somewhere just because you'd be excited to see another hurricane make landfall on the East Coast and the resulting media hype and residential stress. It's just not right. I realize some people are level-headed and that it's difficult not to feel this way when you're so interested in tracking hurricanes and their aftermath, it's just something I felt needed to be pointed out.

Since the AL14 model runs are creeping me out, I think I'll be withdrawing from the blog for a while, like I did during Irene. Perhaps I'll return to lurking in November when the bloodthirst has died off a bit, or at least laid to rest until the 2012 season, when the blog will resume its sadistic ways.


AMEN - some of us check in here to see what is really going on and to get some different opinions but you are right - it seems that lately there are a lot of FOOLS who are hoping for one of these to really blow up and come ashore. No respect for people's lives or property.
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1521. Hhunter
Quoting wxgeek723:
Ugh.

This blog is rooting for TD 14/soon to be Maria to hit land. It's sickening and quite frankly getting annoying. You know I used to be on your side. I didn't consciously wish destruction on people but I found it exciting. I enjoyed watching it. I kind of wanted to see something interesting unfold. Like during Hurricane Ike, I was really banking on him regaining major hurricane status before barreling into Texas. I was an enthusisiast. Deep down inside I practically enjoyed it, and I know most of you people are the same. The way you type, the hype you produce, the possibilities (or just fantasies) that you mention.

I came into this hurricane season with a slightly toned down attitude. As August progressed I expressed some thoughts that maybe this hurricane season won't be so bad, that the blog won't get what it craves. The NHC was just naming every little blob on the map. I really don't think it needed to take us 9 freakin' names to get a hurricane.

Anyway as you all know the East Coast was rattled a bit on August 23, a few days before Irene's approach. It threw me into a state of anxiety, which was accelerated much further as the media distorted Irene. While I was aware it was just sensationalism, it really scared me. Plus I would lurk on here and see all the fearmongering going on, which didn't help. I felt the true fear that someone feels when a hurricane is bearing down on their area. It's a horrible feeling and throws a lot of people into chaos.

I'll say you people on the Gulf Coast are VERY brave to risk this every year, or maybe just stubborn. Call me what you like but I just can't handle it. Now I go on the WU blog and here I see you people HOPING Maria (it's obviously going to receive that name soon) will hit the East Coast, don't even deny it. This is pretty obvious considering anyone who dares mention recurvature must get shot down and completely defeated. Keep in mind I realize some are trolls and that it's also VERY possible for AL14 to strike the East Coast. It may be subconsciously but I know you people crave this. It gives you a rush. Believe me I know.

However when the shoe was on the other foot I began to realize how wrong it was to feel this way. I've learned that I have to approach this like a scientist with the least possible bias, and that a storm will go where it goes. You can't wish it somewhere just because you'd be excited to see another hurricane make landfall on the East Coast and the resulting media hype and residential stress. It's just not right. I realize some people are level-headed and that it's difficult not to feel this way when you're so interested in tracking hurricanes and their aftermath, it's just something I felt needed to be pointed out.

Since the AL14 model runs are creeping me out, I think I'll be withdrawing from the blog for a while, like I did during Irene. Perhaps I'll return to lurking in November when the bloodthirst has died off a bit, or at least laid to rest until the 2012 season, when the blog will resume its sadistic ways.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Doesn't matter what anyone "WISHES" for . It will go where it goes and nothing anyone says or does will change that. No-one is wishing for it to hit anywhere but discussing and debating possibilities. Conditions can and will constantly change and a good friendly debate is a learning tool.


Absolutely, there is no control over it, but I wouldn't say people are having a 'good, friendly debate'. Oh and yeah, they definitely want it to hit land. Subconsciously maybe. I know because I was in that state once so I know what the desire for a destructive storm looks like and it's definitely present here.
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1519. breald
Good evening all, the Atlantic is starting to get busy.
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Quoting AussieStorm:



Five models, five different results !! I guess we really don't know what it's influence will be!
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Katia Waves



That is some pretty water. :)
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Quoting HCW:


Landfall on the AL/MS line as a Cat 1 in about 127 hrs





Notice where TD#14 is also. uh oh. not good.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hmmm....

Seems plausible.


Oh, yeah. I don't like this setup at all.
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1514. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:
ASCAT missed 14L.


Some hefty winds on the north side though
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1513. jdjnola
Quoting will40:



its just a model run gracious


I was just joking. In fact, I hope that model run doesn't come to pass. Lee was enough for one season. And Texas needs the rain.
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1512. Dakster
Quoting twincomanche:
He is ill.


I hope he gets better soon! Nothing serious?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11657
Quoting WeatherWx:


My point exactly. Tired of all the wishcasting for it to destroy the East Coast. I'm rooting for a FISH storm!(one that misses Bermuda as well)
Doesn't matter what anyone "WISHES" for . It will go where it goes and nothing anyone says or does will change that. No-one is wishing for it to hit anywhere but discussing and debating possibilities. Conditions can and will constantly change and a good friendly debate is a learning tool.
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1510. BDADUDE
Katia Waves

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1509. will40
Quoting jdjnola:


I KNEW IT! Haha see my comment 1471 above. Sorry, Texas.



its just a model run gracious
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My dad's gonna fix the generator tomorrow...got over-used thanks to Irene.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Same here. No power or water for days, howling winds and some heavy squalls.


I live in Isabela and we got the weekear side of the storm, The shortcut that Irene took to the north safe the western side of the island.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
1507. jdjnola
Quoting HCW:


Landfall on the AL/MS line as a Cat 1 in about 127 hrs






I KNEW IT! Haha see my comment 1471 above. Sorry, Texas.
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UKM

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.2N 37.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.09.2011 11.2N 37.4W MODERATE

12UTC 07.09.2011 11.6N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2011 12.2N 44.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2011 12.5N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2011 13.2N 51.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2011 14.0N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2011 14.6N 57.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2011 15.6N 60.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2011 17.0N 63.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2011 18.7N 65.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2011 20.2N 67.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2011 22.1N 69.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
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Well, TD 14 is getting itself organized in a hurry. The CIMSS ADT estimate is constrained - at present, it won't rise more than 0.2/hour - but just look at this beautiful graph:

The raw T# is now 3.4, which would make this a very strong Maria, on the verge of graduating to hurricane status. So, yes, SAB still puts the storm at 30 kts. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it named at 11pm.
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Ugh.

This blog is rooting for TD 14/soon to be Maria to hit land. It's sickening and quite frankly getting annoying. You know I used to be on your side. I didn't consciously wish destruction on people but I found it exciting. I enjoyed watching it. I kind of wanted to see something interesting unfold. Like during Hurricane Ike, I was really banking on him regaining major hurricane status before barreling into Texas. I was an enthusisiast. Deep down inside I practically enjoyed it, and I know most of you people are the same. The way you type, the hype you produce, the possibilities (or just fantasies) that you mention.

I came into this hurricane season with a slightly toned down attitude. As August progressed I expressed some thoughts that maybe this hurricane season won't be so bad, that the blog won't get what it craves. The NHC was just naming every little blob on the map. I really don't think it needed to take us 9 freakin' names to get a hurricane.

Anyway as you all know the East Coast was rattled a bit on August 23, a few days before Irene's approach. It threw me into a state of anxiety, which was accelerated much further as the media distorted Irene. While I was aware it was just sensationalism, it really scared me. Plus I would lurk on here and see all the fearmongering going on, which didn't help. I felt the true fear that someone feels when a hurricane is bearing down on their area. It's a horrible feeling and throws a lot of people into chaos.

I'll say you people on the Gulf Coast are VERY brave to risk this every year, or maybe just stubborn. Call me what you like but I just can't handle it. Now I go on the WU blog and here I see you people HOPING Maria (it's obviously going to receive that name soon) will hit the East Coast, don't even deny it. This is pretty obvious considering anyone who dares mention recurvature must get shot down and completely defeated. Keep in mind I realize some are trolls and that it's also VERY possible for AL14 to strike the East Coast. It may be subconsciously but I know you people crave this. It gives you a rush. Believe me I know.

However when the shoe was on the other foot I began to realize how wrong it was to feel this way. I've learned that I have to approach this like a scientist with the least possible bias, and that a storm will go where it goes. You can't wish it somewhere just because you'd be excited to see another hurricane make landfall on the East Coast and the resulting media hype and residential stress. It's just not right. I realize some people are level-headed and that it's difficult not to feel this way when you're so interested in tracking hurricanes and their aftermath, it's just something I felt needed to be pointed out.

Since the AL14 model runs are creeping me out, I think I'll be withdrawing from the blog for a while, like I did during Irene. Perhaps I'll return to lurking in November when the bloodthirst has died off a bit, or at least laid to rest until the 2012 season, when the blog will resume its sadistic ways.
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Quoting HCW:


Landfall on the AL/MS line has a Cat 1 in about 127 hrs




May I have the link please?TIA
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Quoting JLPR2:


Thats not it. XD
It's too far away, once it reaches 50-55w we'll have a better idea of what its planning.

It's all a big "IF" right now. We're still likely to be hit again before the year is over.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
Quoting TuMama:
Mi abuelo said the fires in TX are not as bad today.


That is great news. :)
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Quoting HCW:


Landfall on the AL/MS line has a Cat 1 in about 127 hrs




and that is the euro? at least i think thats what i saw. is that the latest run or is it old?
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1496. Levi32
Back later.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting JLPR2:


Well you were lucky. Lost power for three days and my street flooded, also, I received sustained TS winds and I would dare to say a hurricane force gust could have happened.

Same here. No power or water for days, howling winds and some heavy squalls.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
Someone mentioned the climate in florida. Im on the east central coast of fla, and i live between the halifax river and the ocean. This summer its been unbearable heat since april.

Mostly 90-95 f for months on end. For instance, today the humidity was at 88% for most of the day, so its not just the heat that gets you..its the humidity that makes the air feel like it's heavy and hard to breathe.

Maybe the fact that our house is surrounded by water could make the humidity even higher where i live.

I walk outside and im covered in sweat, dripping with water in less than three minutes.

They say that people get used to the climate that they live in, but ive lived here all my life and i dont think that i could ever get used to this.

Florida heat continues until the last week in november, usually...

Also, It seems that we only have two seasons here - winter and hurricane season.

It seems to me that for the past five years, Florida has so far 'dodged the bullet' when it comes to major hurricane strikes. The last storms that I remember to cross the area where I live were Charlie, Frances and Jean - three storms within a matter of a few weeks.

I'm not wishing for a storm because i know what kind of devastation that they bring - but i know that our luck here won't last forever.

Oh and you guys were totally right about the GoMex storm that's looking like it will develop. Its fascinating to me how these storms interact with each other; their paths are determined by many factors and its interesting to see all of this unfold as it happens.
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1492. HCW
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
what exactly is that showing and is that the most recent model run? and roll tide


Landfall on the AL/MS line as a Cat 1 in about 127 hrs




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Quoting spathy:


Sorry to hear that.
I dont know if you can post it on here but are there any good trustworthy organizations to donate to?

Link
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Hi there. Same here, record low 60 last night. Nice cool ride in the open Jeep to work this morning. :)


Heya! Supposed to be around 52 tomorrow morning, but then over the week the temps go back up again. I had the heat on in the SUV on my way to work this morning! *G*
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AL, 14, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 372W, 30, 1008, TD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116089
1488. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol Laziness.


Thats not it. XD
It's too far away, once it reaches 50-55w we'll have a better idea of what its planning.
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Comments from the experts regarding TD14

Quote from Dr. Masters:

Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

Quote from Levi:

The good news is that because of Lee's cut-off upper low still stuck over the center of the country, a big longwave trough is going to have to dive in over the eastern U.S. to rescue the cut-off low. Thus, we may have a big trough over the eastern seaboard next week that could recurve 95L out to sea

From Crown Weather

After potentially affecting the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands this weekend, this potential tropical cyclone could be pulled north and then northeastward away from the US East Coast next week due to a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern United States

If you don't want to believe me, you might want to listen to them. The system behind TD14 will have a better chance of staying west.
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looking at the steering currents from CIMMS at both the 700mb-850mb and the 500m-850mb it shows that TD14 will move north of west the next 4 days, which will bring it very close to the central antilles by sat. the EURO ,CMC and the UKmet take it thrOUGH the winward islands while the GFS which always have a northerly bias and the NOGAPS take it in the vicinity of the northern leeward islands.
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Quoting spathy:


Sorry to hear that.
I dont know if you can post it on here but are there any good trustworthy organizations to donate to?


Excellent question...I'm 100% certain he can post that
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Quoting AussieStorm:




I vote for the line that goes to TX. :)
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Evening everyone,
Had a beautiful October day in early September here.

Hi there. Same here, record low 60 last night. Nice cool ride in the open Jeep to work this morning. :)
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1482. JLPR2
Quoting prweatherwatcher:



I was lucky with Irene, we never lose power and got just TS gust with no rain at all.


Well you were lucky. Lost power for three days and my street flooded, also, I received sustained TS winds and I would dare to say a hurricane force gust could have happened.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Eh, I wont do anything until it reaches 50W.

lol Laziness.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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