TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


HPC has 7-10 inches over that area. You would likely get up to TS-force winds for over a day, maybe two, as the storm very slowly moves inland near the coast. It will depend on the exact timing of landfall, but the winds shouldn't be the big problem - it would be the rainfall.

Do you think it will sound like a hurricane in a trailor?? Lol There pretty and big, but thin thin walls!
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486. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Thanks for your time and good video. What kind of winds and rain can I expect to see on the Miss/Al. line if TD 13 is a TS with winds of 60 to 65 mph, and for how long? I am in a doublewide manufactured home that is up to code, but I have small children and I am wondering what it will sound like to them. This is the first time I have been in a manufactured home with a TC threat. I am 35 miles from the water.


This one is coming with a higher risk than normal for tornadoes. Start thinking about a friend or some family with a block type house you can hang out in case it heads your way.
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Quoting iamajeepmom:


May resort to just planting mint instead of grass around the house then. It grows like crazy when everything else dies and HEY it will deter ants! :)


Hey, that is an excellent idea! lol I think I just might do that also...
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484. KY50
Quoting connie1976:
Which model was it that has been doing the best this year? Thank you in advance? (ps- is this question ok to ask? or is this a "bad" question to ask?)


Not a bad question Connie -- European has bene pretty good - ECMWF. GFS has been OK, too.
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Almost makes you think the LLC would relocate further to the E.



Yet... latest recon has relocated the center further to the SW (from the original point) which definitely agrees with a sheared system.
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Quoting Hurlo:


That cell north of Pine Bluff has some hair on its chest.
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481. Hurlo
Quoting MtnWX10:


I used crushed mint leaves...the menthol oils deter ants.


Fresca is a good insect repellant and a good aftershave as well.
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Quoting Levi32:
TD 13 still looks somewhat sheared by the upper low to its northwest, and the lopsided look may persist into the weekend, but that shouldn't prevent it from becoming a strong tropical storm.


I think it's more about the dry air now than shear.

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Does that mean TX may still get some rain?  Oh I sure hope so. 


Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
New center fix is approx. 50 Miles SW of this mornings Vortex Message...Hmmmmm the models may shift west with a new initialization point!!

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Quoting jpsb:
Works for me.


Just remember, NOGAPS is NOt Good At Predicting Stuff.
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UKMET bahamas Katia.
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks for your time and good video. What kind of winds and rain can I expect to see on the Miss/Al. line if TD 13 is a TS with winds of 60 to 65 mph, and for how long? I am in a doublewide manufactured home that is up to code, but I have small children and I am wondering what it will sound like to them. This is the first time I have been in a manufactured home with a TC threat. I am 35 miles from the water.


HPC has 7-10 inches over that area. You would likely get up to TS-force winds for over a day, maybe two, as the storm very slowly moves inland near the coast. It will depend on the exact timing of landfall, but the winds shouldn't be the big problem - it would be the rainfall.

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Quoting wxobsvps:


I think you mean "dat way"


Me tinks.. dis, dat, and de udder way :P
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Quoting MtnWX10:


I used crushed mint leaves...the menthol oils deter ants.


May resort to just planting mint instead of grass around the house then. It grows like crazy when everything else dies and HEY it will deter ants! :)
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Quoting Skyepony:
That vortex message should bring us Tropical Storm Lee by 2pm..
what kind of winds do you think?
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is the hh going back out into td13, and if so when? thanks!
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New center fix is approx. 50 Miles SW of this mornings Vortex Message...Hmmmmm the models may shift west with a new initialization point!!
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469. Hurlo
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468. Skyepony (Mod)
That vortex message should bring us Tropical Storm Lee by 2pm..
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CIMSS seems to think we have Lee:


Three hours ago that was an L.
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Quoting WXHEAD:


Yes, after being ready every year since Charley and Wilma, no self respecting hurricane dares show it's face in S FL.

An old sea Captain said we wouldn't get any hurricane this year because there is a barrier around the gulf stream keeping them away.

Of course here on the blog I have heard of another mystical force that protects Florida. It originally was some sort of shower curtain device, but perhpas I misunderstood. Drinking Fresca will do that.


Not so sure about Mystical Forces/Creatures, but do know that there are a LOT of sea turtle nests still on Ft Lauderdale beach ... and I read a LONG time ago this: Link
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465. jpsb
Quoting BoroDad17:
So let me get this straight. We are all wishing TD13 to head to TX. Problem is, NOGAPS is implying that to save texas, we have to sacrifice the East Coast to Katia. Nice.
Works for me.
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The Latest 11:00am Advisories
*Click graphics to magnify (graphics can further be magnified in Link window by clicking on them)


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Quoting iamajeepmom:


Hey Connie, I think it's from all the rain? I've got a pest control company that comes in every month and they do something to the outside of the house and around the windows but the week before they are due to come out, the little tiny things start making their appearance.


I used crushed mint leaves...the menthol oils deter ants.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Sure looks like it.


How is that?  And where in South TX are they talking about?

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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 2nd, with Video
Thanks for your time and good video. What kind of winds and rain can I expect to see on the Miss/Al. line if TD 13 is a TS with winds of 60 to 65 mph, and for how long? I am in a doublewide manufactured home that is up to code, but I have small children and I am wondering what it will sound like to them. This is the first time I have been in a manufactured home with a TC threat. I am 35 miles from the water.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


TD13 with 3 landfalls?

2 in LA

and the final in S. Texas?


Sure looks like it.
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Quoting icebear7:


and certainly don' need any more rain.
Especially in the Northeast!
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457. jpsb
Quoting icebear7:


and certainly don' need any more rain.
If td13 does as the NHC thinks it will do, it will bring more rain then Irene ever could.
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Visible loops show that the westerly inflow into TD 13 has remarkably improved since yesterday. We usually don't see such a strong southern side so early.
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455. 996tt
Quoting overwash12:
East Coast beaches suffered erosion from Irene,will not handle another round of large waves and tidal surge from Katia very well! Even if Katia stays 150 miles offshore,she will more than likely cause damage to an already eroded coastline.


Yep, but it is nature's course. Problem is not beach erosion, but we built houses to close to the ocean so we have to artificially build it back up again, dunes and beaches that is . . . Still not as bad as say Malibu . . .
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Quoting P451:


#209 ? Trying to understand. where? looks like the second graphic is bouys but what is the first? I finally got a computer that allows me to see most graphics - so after several years on the blog, maybe this old grandpa can learn something about maps. TIA.
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Quoting BoroDad17:
So let me get this straight. We are all wishing TD13 to head to TX. Problem is, NOGAPS is implying that to save texas, we have to sacrifice the East Coast to Katia. Nice.


LOL!!!
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:




Is that different than a pm poster?  lol




lol
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Quoting flowrida:
Wow!!!!!! that looks like Florida!!!!!!


that looks like Florida, Georgia, SC and NC..LOL..it has a thing for the southeast..
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Quoting Tazmanian:




its a am poster



Is that different than a pm poster?  lol
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Quoting iamajeepmom:


Hey Connie, I think it's from all the rain? I've got a pest control company that comes in every month and they do something to the outside of the house and around the windows but the week before they are due to come out, the little tiny things start making their appearance.


yup, I thought it was from all of the rain! I was going to do the pest control thing...but I have cats & kids and am afraid of it...lol...(mostly for the cats because they would be the ones to walk through it or lay in it) I have tried borax...but it doesn't seem to be working! I am now desperate! I have also tried the baits...all different kinds!
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So let me get this straight. We are all wishing TD13 to head to TX. Problem is, NOGAPS is implying that to save texas, we have to sacrifice the East Coast to Katia. Nice.
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Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NGP... at it again.


TD13 with 3 landfalls?

2 in LA

and the final in S. Texas?
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Quoting flowrida:
Is plywood tape just as good?


You're being punked. If you need to cover windows, there is no useful tape. You must put plywood up with screws to protect windows. Tape is just supposed to keep it from shattering but it really doesn't do that.
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Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NGP... at it again.


That's not good...
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TD 13 still looks somewhat sheared by the upper low to its northwest, and the lopsided look may persist into the weekend, but that shouldn't prevent it from becoming a strong tropical storm.
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442. 996tt
Quoting flowrida:
I think im worried about the waves behind Katia since the high pressure will be building back in after katia exits. I am really afraid for Florida once that happens.


Waves won't be too much in Florida. More concerned about oil. Didn't see any tar balls or stuff last night when I surfed for about an hour at sunset. Will be curious to see if anything surfaces if storm gets strong enough to cause some serious upwelling.
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roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 16:38:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°21'N 91°30'W (27.35N 91.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the S (171°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,464m (4,803ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 36kts (From the SSE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:11:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E/ESE (101°) from the flight level center
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Quoting overwash12:
East Coast beaches suffered erosion from Irene,will not handle another round of large waves and tidal surge from Katia very well! Even if Katia stays 150 miles offshore,she will more than likely cause damage to an already eroded coastline.


and certainly don' need any more rain.
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439. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting oracle28:


Is 94L remnants of Irene?


No, when the T-wave that is now 13L was over FL a piece of it broke off & went north. 94L is part of that mixed with something that come off the CONUS.
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Quoting yoboi:
why do people post stuff like taz7 ???




its a am poster
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437. jpsb
Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NGP... at it again.
NOGAPS is my favorite, it loves Texas and tries it's best to bring us rain. Come on NOGAPS!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.