TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1937. sunlinepr
11:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Looks like the fat lady is ready to sing.


Closer to the islands... have to keep an eye on her...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9719
1936. jascott1967
11:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting beell:
It's obvious that there is still a fairly decent cyclonic non-tropical upper-level flow towards the tropical lower level center in place of an attempt at upper-level outflow. Not unheard of but it does not happen every day.

Click for loop.



Looks more like Texas dry air giving it a punch in the gut.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 607
1935. Drakoen
11:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey drak does Katia look to be a problem for the bahamas and florida ??? just thought


It is too early to say. The situation is very complex as it involves TS Lee.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1934. 996tt
11:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Lol That does noy mean Lee is weakning, because waves in DESTIN are not kicking it.


Pretty weak when not strong enough to kick any surf up when so close and no more feeder bands and 30 mph gust in Pensacola area does reflect weakening. Look at clouds tops now versus earlier. Is it your opinion it is getting stronger?
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1933. Drakoen
11:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
HWRF 18z a little more to the south and more to the left:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1931. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Yup, a yellow circle...I knew it! (lol)

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE AND THE LOW IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
1930. HoustonTxGal
11:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like the fat lady is ready to sing.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
1929. CCkid00
11:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


Yeah, it is nice here, but a long drive. Kids don't care as long as they have water to play in. Like the beach house I am sitting in. owner is only here a few times a year from Baton Rouge. Seems like he would be at his beach house much more often if it was closer to home.


ummmmm.....have you ever seen the upper Texas beaches (Galveston, etc.) or the Lousiana/Miss. beaches (Grand Isle, Biloxi)? then you would FULLY understand why the Texans and us from Louisiana go to the Florida beaches and the Floridians should be thankful for that, as that is most of the beach area's $$$.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
1928. hurricanehanna
11:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


Yeah, it is nice here, but a long drive. Kids don't care as long as they have water to play in. Like the beach house I am sitting in. owner is only here a few times a year from Baton Rouge. Seems like he would be at his beach house much more often if it was closer to home.

It's a long drive for us too. I like Galveston - nice little town and I love the Strand. I guess if people are going to pay to go somewhere on vacation, they want as nice as they can get.
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1927. Seflhurricane
11:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
the gulf coast is going t take a relentless pounding this weekend , but very welcomed rain should wipe out the drought
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1926. IKE
11:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
RECENTLY MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.
A WIND GUST TO 38 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
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1925. sunlinepr
11:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
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1924. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Lee continuing to strengthen, pressure down 2 mb.

Weakening...ha!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
1923. sarahjola
11:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting IKE:
...TROPICAL STORM LEE INCHING NORTHWARD...


7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2

Location: 27.8�N 91.6�W

Max sustained: 45 mph

Moving: N at 3 mph

Min pressure: 1001 mb
wow! so pressure is dropping? it looks as though its falling apart or weakening. did this come from hh? thanks
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1922. hurricanehanna
11:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 - TS Lee

Location: 27.8°N 91.6°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
1921. Seflhurricane
11:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:


Looking at the GFS upper level vorticity maps, it keeps the vorticity fairly decently for the next 48 hours or so.
hey drak does Katia look to be a problem for the bahamas and florida ??? just thought
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1920. 996tt
11:53 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting hurricanehanna:

My personal opinion is that Florida's beaches are more beautiful. I'm not saying they are nicer, as I grew up going to Galveston often, but the sand is white and the water is emerald green to blue. Just my take.


Yeah, it is nice here, but a long drive. Kids don't care as long as they have water to play in. Like the beach house I am sitting in. owner is only here a few times a year from Baton Rouge. Seems like he would be at his beach house much more often if it was closer to home.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
1919. kmanislander
11:53 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
kman looks to me that Katia wants to go further west than expected and some models indicate this ??


Last night about this time I posted that the Northern Leewards and the Central to Northern Bahamas needed to pay attention to Katia. The UK Met is the only model that really threatens the Bahamas but I do believe the models generally have underestimated the struggle that Katia has had with shear and dry air. These two factors have affected the system's organization and strength, both of which determine how it responds to the steering.

It is not guaranteed that it will recurve before striking land somewhere to its West. I believe the jury is still very much out on whether or where it will threaten land but it is awfully close to the Islands by about 400 miles.
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1918. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Katia has been tracking due West for a while now and the eye can be seen where the cloud tops have warmed with the "green dot" near 18.3N and close to 54W.



So it is an eye...I knew it!
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1917. Drakoen
11:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Lee is not an STS:

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1916. scott39
11:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


Yep, there were actually some nice feeder bands going through Pensacola area earlier today. Not any longer. Very calm here in Destin. Waves are not even kicked up enough to bother.
Lol That does noy mean Lee is weakning, because waves in DESTIN are not kicking it.
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1915. 996tt
11:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting CC45:


Dry air from TX is trying to kill it. (Shocker!) If it doesn't get away from that dry air I don't think it'll be able to intensify.


Yep, it needs to drift east a bit. Might. Otherwise, I am not even sure there will be enough swell to surf. Would be a cat 1 now if not for dry air entraining.
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1914. HoustonTxGal
11:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting hurricanehanna:

My personal opinion is that Florida's beaches are more beautiful. I'm not saying they are nicer, as I grew up going to Galveston often, but the sand is white and the water is emerald green to blue. Just my take.


I will agree with you there. Fl does have pretty sand!
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1913. weatherguy03
11:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting TexasHoosier:


CE, RedWagon and Houston Girl thank you for your comments.

Levi, do you have anything to say on ths matter? You have been around for a while.....Korithe Man, seen you on this blog many times in past years, what do you think about Dr. M's postulations about Talas affecting Katia, many days and 10,000+ miles away?

No kidding everyone, never seen somebody with the professional smarts ever and I mean ever, try to draw a correlation like this before with atmospheric weather.....

Anyway, thanks for the comments my post did elicit and I will be back again tonight - now its time girls HS Volleyball at North Crowley High School, here in Fort Worth!!! and yes, its still about 102 degrees for what seems forever.....




1869. weatherguy03 7:38 PM EDT on September 02, 2011 +1
As far as teleconnections go. Normally if a Tropical Cyclone hits Japan from the South the teleconnection would have a trough in the Central CONUS in about 7 days. This would in turn create a stronger Western Atlantic Ridge. Thus you have seen the models trending farther West with Katia. ;)
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29700
1912. defdogz
11:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Good post.
I've heard of teleconnection from other posters, and I've seen the Dr. mention it briefly a few times over the years, but I've never seen him or anyone make that direct teleconnection between a specific cyclone on the other side of the world and the domino effect it can have to a cyclone 9-10 days later. And that difference between whether it takes 9 or 10 days, and how strong it is..is what will tell the tail of where Katia's coc goes. Whether it'll turn out true or not I can't tell you, but it's fascinating.


Henry Margusity discussed this on Tuesday. Watch the video, starting about 4:20

Henry Margusity's blog for 8/30/11
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1911. sunlinepr
11:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9719
1910. hurricanehanna
11:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting 996tt:
Always wondered, if Texas has so much coast line, why do so many Texans drive all the way to Destin, Florida, to vacation in the summer. Same for the Louisiana folks? 98 through Destin is constantly clogged with Texas and Louisiana vehicles.

My personal opinion is that Florida's beaches are more beautiful. I'm not saying they are nicer, as I grew up going to Galveston often, but the sand is white and the water is emerald green to blue. Just my take.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
1909. Drakoen
11:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting beell:
It's obvious that there is still a fairly decent cyclonic non-tropical upper-level flow towards the tropical lower level center in place of an attempt at upper-level outflow. Not unheard of but it does not happen every day.

Click for loop.



Looking at the GFS upper level vorticity maps, it keeps the vorticity fairly decently for the next 48 hours or so.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1907. Nolehead
11:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
evening everyone, Lee is pumping some nice waves over here in Orange Beach, Al....going to be 1 very long wet weekend...scratch boat plans this weekend...
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1906. IKE
11:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
...TROPICAL STORM LEE INCHING NORTHWARD...


7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2

Location: 27.8N 91.6W

Max sustained: 45 mph

Moving: N at 3 mph

Min pressure: 1001 mb
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1905. franck
11:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Is Lee getting split in two like his girlfriennd Irene??
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1904. canehater1
11:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Well there you have it.. NOLA is safe! Jim Cantore has boots on the ground there.
he just didn't want Mike Seidel to drink all the Hurricanes..(no pun
intended)
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1020
1903. HoustonTxGal
11:48 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Katia has been tracking due West for a while now and the eye can be seen where the cloud tops have warmed with the "green dot" near 18.3N and close to 54W.



As was pondered earlier, could Lee be effecting the western movement of Katia? She was suppose to turn more North but she is still tracking West
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1902. CC45
11:48 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey guys is lee weakining or what?


Dry air from TX is trying to kill it. (Shocker!) If it doesn't get away from that dry air I don't think it'll be able to intensify, probably continue to weaken.
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1901. 996tt
11:48 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


This thing is getting shredded. If it stays toward the West, their won't be much left.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey guys is lee weakining or what?


Yep, there were actually some nice feeder bands going through Pensacola area earlier today. Not any longer. Very calm here in Destin. Waves are not even kicked up enough to bother.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Quoting sarahjola:
thanks, but what about the hurricane hunters? did they go out at 4 and if so what did they find? tia!


No flight at 4 but they are on their way now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 996tt:
Always wondered, if Texas has so much coast line, why do so many Texans drive all the way to Destin, Florida, to vacation in the summer. Same for the Louisiana folks? 98 through Destin is constantly clogged with Texas and Louisiana vehicles.





Just to piss you off maybe?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1898. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:
is lee still in a position to strengthen, or is he falling apart? i would think with all that hot water that it would have gotten a little stronger by now. has anyone gotten any info from the hh that was supposed to take off at 4p.m.? thanks!
Texas has a HUGE NATURAL BLOW DRYER, and is pointing it right at Lees W side and COC. IF and when that relaxes, then you will see further strengthening. Texas is tired of being scorched. If they cant have Lee....It will try to kill it!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
1897. ncstorm
Quoting CCkid00:


local METS here (just outside of Baton Rouge) are calling it Subtropical or hybrid.....but really, what difference does it make?


if hybrid, those systems intensify much quicker than a typical tropical cyclone..LA could wake up tomorrow with a strong hurricane..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Katia has been tracking due West for a while now and the eye can be seen where the cloud tops have warmed with the "green dot" near 18.3N and close to 54W.

kman looks to me that Katia wants to go further west than expected and some models indicate this ??
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting 996tt:
Always wondered, if Texas has so much coast line, why do so many Texans drive all the way to Destin, Florida, to vacation in the summer. Same for the Louisiana folks? 98 through Destin is constantly clogged with Texas and Louisiana vehicles.


And if the world is covered 75% in water, why is ocean front property so expensive? just saying
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1894. 996tt
Quoting beell:
It's obvious that there is still a fairly decent cyclonic non-tropical upper-level flow towards the tropical lower level center in place of an attempt at upper-level outflow. Not unheard of but it does not happen every day.

Click for loop.



This thing is getting shredded. If it stays toward the West, their won't be much left.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9719
1892. amd
Quoting P451:


I don't know if it is a hybrid or not, Taz, but the satellite signature sure does hint at it. I've brought up the question a few times.


I'm in the STS camp for Lee as well. In fact, I decided to quickly check some of the discussions from Hurricane Otto when it was a subtropical system, and I found this little nugget. Note: Sorry for the all caps in the next section.

2nd discussion for what would become Hurricane Otto last year

VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS LOCATED AT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS TROPICAL T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.1/31 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. EARLIER AMSU TEMPERATURE DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A WEAK WARM CORE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 600-400 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS NOT FULLY NOT FULLY TROPICAL. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT AND THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETAIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Now, let's compare to this nugget from the latest discussion for Lee.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LEE HAS BECOME ENTANGLED WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

With the presence of heavy mid-level dry air, a flat temperature core as measured by recon both today and yesterday, and the strongest winds well away from the center, doesn't Lee fit the classical definition of a subtropical storm.

Note, I am not in any way trying to downplay the actual effects of this system, but I find the discussion of sub-tropical versus fully-tropical interesting.
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Good evening

Katia has been tracking due West for a while now and the eye can be seen where the cloud tops have warmed with the "green dot" near 18.3N and close to 54W.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
1890. CCkid00
Quoting P451:


I don't know if it is a hybrid or not, Taz, but the satellite signature sure does hint at it. I've brought up the question a few times.


local METS here (just outside of Baton Rouge) are calling it Subtropical or hybrid.....but really, what difference does it make?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
1889. 996tt
Always wondered, if Texas has so much coast line, why do so many Texans drive all the way to Destin, Florida, to vacation in the summer. Same for the Louisiana folks? 98 through Destin is constantly clogged with Texas and Louisiana vehicles.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
1888. beell
It's obvious that there is still a fairly decent cyclonic non-tropical upper-level flow towards the tropical lower level center in place of an attempt at upper-level outflow. Not unheard of but it does not happen every day.

Click for loop.

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i should go thank cantore for saving me from devistation
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.