TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
too me Katia is moveing right a long 18N 54W or 19N 54W wish do you guys think all so Katia is starting too come vary cloes too the Leeward Islands even no it may still be a few 100 ms off too there W but when toy look at it it looks like it is a lot closer then you think it is all so if this keeps moveing W i think a TS watch or hurricane watch could go up for the Leeward Islands if this dos not start turning a little WNW soon


so if you live any where on the Leeward Islands i would keep a vary close eye on this has this may be comeing closer then mode runs are saying



but hey what do i no lol



any commets?


Water vapor imagery shows that a weakness within the ridge still exists, as the flow is southeasterly or even east-southeast. She should turn again soon.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Storm Allison (2001)


Tropical Storm Lee


Similar in structure.. pretty cool.

wow ... look how similar!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
Just got a call from my friend in Robertsdale AL, the other side of Mobile, she said it is raining cats and dogs there. She also said she had a few large fans and would put them out to blow some of it to TX...LOL

Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
1984. luigi18
Quoting sunlinepr:


Closer to the islands... have to keep an eye on her...


we have tto keep an eye on this beauty she is dancing close to us
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just a little reminder to those along the Gulf Coast who will be impacted by Lee (or anyone else who will be impacted by future storms)....possible power outages are possible so: wash as many clothes as you can now and turn refrigerators and freezers to coldest settings. If your pets stay outside, make sure they have safe shelter, or better yet, bring them indoors. Stay away from downed lines of any kind - call your electric company. Check on elder or invalid neighbors - especially those living alone. Pick up any loose debris or items in your yard - they can turn into projectiles. Best bet is to stay in and stay safe :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Well shoot!  I was really hoping we here in TX would get some rain out of 13 but it seems as though we are out of luck...AGAIN!!

NO FAIR!


Well, here's worse news. It's gonna become even drier in Texas because of Lee,
because Texas has been very hot and dry, wind is gonna make that fire.
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Quoting 996tt:


I hear you, but no surge and no winds to speak off also. Won't get those either unless convection can build in and wrap around the center of circulation.


Winds continue to gust to tropical storm force offshore, though.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
1979. scott39
Lee will be slow to strengthen with that dry air from Texas, being blown into it. Depending on how far N Lee goes before turning NE, will depend on what he can show us. Once he pulls away from that dry air and stays far enough out in the GOM...then he could start filling in that W side. Land interaction will be a factor for slow strengthening......but it wont be like that dry air.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
too me Katia is moveing right a long 18N 54W or 19N 54W wish do you guys think all so Katia is starting too come vary cloes too the Leeward Islands even no it may still be a few 100 ms off too there W but when you look at it it looks like it is a lot closer then you think it is all so if this keeps moveing W i think a TS watch or hurricane watch could go up for the Leeward Islands if this dos not start turning a little WNW soon


so if you live any where on the Leeward Islands i would keep a vary close eye on this has this may be comeing closer then mode runs are saying



but hey what do i no lol



any commets?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
1976. 996tt
Quoting scott39:
You cant judge a TC strength by convection alone.


I hear you, but no surge and no winds to speak off also. Won't get those either unless convection can build in and wrap around the center of circulation.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Tropical Storm Allison (2001)


Tropical Storm Lee


Similar in structure.. pretty cool.
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Quoting weatherguy03:
As far as teleconnections go. Normally if a Tropical Cyclone hits Japan from the South the teleconnection would have a trough in the Central CONUS in about 7 days. This would in turn create a stronger Western Atlantic Ridge. Thus you have seen the models trending farther West with Katia.
Thank you for your opinion WX03, it carries a lot of weight with me...for those who don't know WX03 is the ONLY formally trained met that posts on this blog, besides the Dr., Angela, and Rob of course. We do have some other promising posters currently studying and close to getting their degree who do great as well.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting Drakoen:


lol. 94L sustained itself plenty enough. They called 93L 13L with a weak closed low and convection displaced east of the trough axis due to high shear.


I'm not here to argue whether or not 13L was a legitimate tropical cyclone yesterday. I do not believe it was either.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
Let's face it. 94L is right on the border of the warm water and chilly water. It will take a miracle for it to get warmer and bigger.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


As was pondered earlier, could Lee be effecting the western movement of Katia? She was suppose to turn more North but she is still tracking West


What is the correct term for a huge wobble West ? :( :(
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1968. Zeec94
Quoting notanothergoof:
keping a very close eye on 94 lee and katia here in florida


I'm almost 99% sure 94L won't affect Florida. ;)
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Click to see the 2Sept_12amGMT mapping for TS.Lee

The 12amGMT_ATCF is already due, but for the sake of continuity...
12pmGMT's TS.Katia was upgraded to hurricane status at 3:17pmGMT
17.5n52.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Katia's_6pmGMT_ATCF
17.4n52.1w, 17.9n52.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 1Sept_6pmGMT and ending 2Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 8.7mph(13.9k/h) on a heading of 311.1degrees(NW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over Wilmington,NorthCarolina ~8days22hours from now

Copy&paste 15.7n48.6w-16.2n50.0w, 16.2n50.0w-16.9n51.3w, 16.9n51.3w-17.4n52.1w, 17.4n52.1w-17.9n52.7w, ilm, 17.4n52.1w-34.22n77.785w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 2Sept_12pmGMT)
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1966. 996tt
Quoting hurricanehanna:

It's a long drive for us too. I like Galveston - nice little town and I love the Strand. I guess if people are going to pay to go somewhere on vacation, they want as nice as they can get.


I have been down to Galveston and South of there twice to surf. Didn't stay long or do much. it was fine with me. Some nice enough areas.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
1965. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


Tropical cyclones are supposed to be self-sustaining. Seeing as though the thunderstorms persisted near the center for less than 12 hours is rather telling.


lol. 94L sustained itself plenty enough. They called 93L 13L with a weak closed low and convection displaced east of the trough axis due to high shear.
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1964. Zeec94
Quoting CC45:


May not be relevant now, but a couple days ago Jim Cantore said he saw the possibility of Lee interacting with Katia and bringing her west to threaten the East Coast. He said if that happens there was a small chance of Katia making landfall on the east coast at the same time Lee makes landfall on the gulf coast. A dual landfall. But like I said, that was a couple days ago, not sure he would say thay now.


Considering Katia is still a WAYS out I would say a dual landfall would be out of play now.
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Looks like Katia might be temporarily caught between a rock and a hard place
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
can someone tell me if by sat. lee will start to drift more ne and maybe begin to strengthen? i see that the pressure continues to drop but will convection start to pick up? thanks!
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
Quoting scott39:
Texas has a HUGE NATURAL BLOW DRYER, and is pointing it right at Lees W side and COC. IF and when that relaxes, then you will see further strengthening. Texas is tired of being scorched. If they cant have Lee....It will try to kill it!


lol
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1959. CC45
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


As was pondered earlier, could Lee be effecting the western movement of Katia? She was suppose to turn more North but she is still tracking West


May not be relevant now, but a couple days ago Jim Cantore said he saw the possibility of Lee interacting with Katia and bringing her west to threaten the East Coast. He said if that happens there was a small chance of Katia making landfall on the east coast at the same time Lee makes landfall on the gulf coast.

Hard to buy into a dual landfall. But like I said, that was a couple days ago, not sure he would say that now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I won't. Yesterday morning and afternoon, 94L looked as good as Cindy and Franklin did, maybe a little bit weaker...but still, it deserved at least brief classification, no matter how long it lasted.


Tropical cyclones are supposed to be self-sustaining. Seeing as though the thunderstorms persisted near the center for less than 12 hours is rather telling.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
1957. Drakoen
500mb set up like this would probably lead to some action for the Mid-Atlantic states.

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i am tracking Katia at 19N 54W moveing W it seems
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Quoting scott39:
You cant judge a TC strength by convection alone.


No you cannot...
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1954. scott39
You cant judge a TC strength by convection alone.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting kmanislander:


No, Lee is too far away but there may be several reasons for the track of Katia flattening out for the past couple of hours. The ridge that is centered to the NE and around which Katia has been moving may have strengthened a bit and pushed back to the West some. The steering flow does suggest this a little even though the trough off the East coast is digging down.

Of course, this may be a temporary "stair step" by Katia and it could resume a NW motion at any time. About 3 hours ago it made a jump to the NW from about 17.7 to about 18.4 but has since settled down to what appears to be a Westerly motion.

We will just have to watch it, not much else one can do really.


Those poor folks on the Eastern Seaboard do not need another storm. I sure hope she makes a sharp right turn soon!
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
Complete Update

Models have finally started to show the hard track alteration to STBD before FL.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly, I'm glad they didn't waste another name like they did with Jose. Granted, 94L looked more tropical than Jose ever did, but since classification is subjective, I'll go ahead and say it wasn't a tropical cyclone either.


I won't. Yesterday morning and afternoon, 94L looked as good as Cindy and Franklin did, maybe a little bit weaker...but still, it deserved at least brief classification, no matter how long it lasted.
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1950. CCkid00
Quoting ncstorm:


if hybrid, those systems intensify much quicker than a typical tropical cyclone..LA could wake up tomorrow with a strong hurricane..


didn't know that....interesting..thanks.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
1949. IKE

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Quoting IKE:



Looks JUST LIKE Allison in 2001.. Wow.. Amazing..
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

My personal opinion is that Florida's beaches are more beautiful. I'm not saying they are nicer, as I grew up going to Galveston often, but the sand is white and the water is emerald green to blue. Just my take.
Tis true IMO also. People from around the world come to N.O or LA. for just as obvious reasons also. Just depends on what you are looking to experience as to where you go.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't know about you, but living here in southeastern North Carolina, the fact that models are trending left (west) is a little concerning to me...Of course, things can change, but...


Me too!!!!
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


As was pondered earlier, could Lee be effecting the western movement of Katia? She was suppose to turn more North but she is still tracking West


No, Lee is too far away but there may be several reasons for the track of Katia flattening out for the past couple of hours. The ridge that is centered to the NE and around which Katia has been moving may have strengthened a bit and pushed back to the West some. The steering flow does suggest this a little even though the trough off the East coast is digging down.

Of course, this may be a temporary "stair step" by Katia and it could resume a NW motion at any time. About 3 hours ago it made a jump to the NW from about 17.7 to about 18.4 but has since settled down to what appears to be a Westerly motion.

We will just have to watch it, not much else one can do really.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting KoritheMan:


What Masters says is correct. Everything is directly proportionate to something else in meteorology. As heights fall and steer Talas northeast after passing Japan, heights will be pumped downstream, over the western US. That in turn typically leads to troughing over the central US as heights fall downstream of the western US ridge. Then we typically see a stronger western Atlantic ridge.


Kind of like the so-called "butterfly effect"
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yup, a yellow circle...I knew it! (lol)

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE AND THE LOW IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


Honestly, I'm glad they didn't waste another name like they did with Jose. Granted, 94L looked more tropical than Jose ever did, but since classification is subjective, I'll go ahead and say it wasn't a tropical cyclone either.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
1942. IKE

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting Drakoen:
HWRF 18z a little more to the south and more to the left:



I don't know about you, but living here in southeastern North Carolina, the fact that models are trending left (west) is a little concerning to me...Of course, things can change, but...
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Quoting TexasHoosier:


CE, RedWagon and Houston Girl thank you for your comments.

Levi, do you have anything to say on ths matter? You have been around for a while.....Korithe Man, seen you on this blog many times in past years, what do you think about Dr. M's postulations about Talas affecting Katia, many days and 10,000+ miles away?

No kidding everyone, never seen somebody with the professional smarts ever and I mean ever, try to draw a correlation like this before with atmospheric weather.....

Anyway, thanks for the comments my post did elicit and I will be back again tonight - now its time girls HS Volleyball at North Crowley High School, here in Fort Worth!!! and yes, its still about 102 degrees for what seems forever.....


What Masters says is correct. Everything is directly proportionate to something else in meteorology. As heights fall and steer Talas northeast after passing Japan, heights will be pumped downstream, over the western US. That in turn typically leads to troughing over the central US as heights fall downstream of the western US ridge. Then we typically see a stronger western Atlantic ridge.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
Quoting Drakoen:
HWRF 18z a little more to the south and more to the left:



Looking very ominous.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Looks like the fat lady is ready to sing.


Closer to the islands... have to keep an eye on her...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.