TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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2487. Dennis8
Quoting JupiterFL:


Is that Ron Paul?

Unshaved
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2486. Dennis8
Quoting stoormfury:
with Katia moving west at snail's pace, would this not allow the ridge to rebuild stronger and keep it on a west track


Lets hope so...ALL of us at once.
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2485. divdog
Quoting P451:
Starting to consolidate and resemble a weak TS.



How long before it goes inland ??
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting DFWjc:
This is more like it for Texas....





Is that Ron Paul?
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with Katia moving west at snail's pace, would this not allow the ridge to rebuild stronger and keep it on a west track
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2482. Patrap
Some Lime in the FunkTop

Close to the center now

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
2481. CC45
Quoting franck:
As with Irene the water vapor loop shows the dry air entraining into Lee looks very geometric. Could a little Tesla science be in play here??


I love Tesla. It's not what ya got it's what you give...

Tesla science, Tesla coil, pretty cool too. ;)
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2480. jonelu
Quoting DFWjc:
This is more like it for Texas....



That was a good one!!! Poor Texas...
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Looking at New Orleans, they have had sustain winds around 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph and nonstop rain for hours. Flooding is going to be huge story with Lee. In fact, 2011 seems to be pretty epic in regards to flooding in many areas.
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Link

Katia- Short Floater AVN Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
2476. Thrawst
Quoting LBAR:
It doesn't seem like Tropical Storm Talas is moving fast enough to create that "ripple" to pick up Katia. Maybe the UKMET is on to something?


Well, does anyone have any record of the UKMET stalling Talas south of Japan? Then it would make a whole lot more sense :P UKMET still an outlier at the moment though..
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Quoting RMM34667:
What I find amazing is that it looks like someone told Lee NOT TO GO TO TEXAS so everything just (moisture/rain) just STOPS at the border.

The heat and dry air is too much for anything. Look what happened to Don. I have seen dozens of Trolls enter this state but once they hit the border they just vanished. LOL The real killer has been high pressure sitting on top of us which seems like forever.
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Quoting JLPR2:


If that is really an eye and the one that was visible at 22z was too then Katia is moving west, very slowly.


Yes, I agree with west. Definitely NOT northwest.
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2473. CCkid00
Quoting truecajun:
Hi everyone! Haven't dropped in since last season. Hope you all are doing well. Quick question, that maybe you'll be able to help me with. But, it's possible though that your guess is as good as mine. Either way, the local news isn't helping me out yet.

We live in Baton Rouge and had/have plans to watch the LSU v. Oregon game at a friend's house in Lafayette (about 60 miles SW of Baton Rouge) We were planning on driving BACK to Baton Rouge AFTER the game. (I'm 7 months pregnant, so I'm the desginated driver.)

I'm guessing our drive home will be before the big time rains and higher winds get here?? I don't really want to chance it, but my husband thinks it'll be fine, as do our friends.

Also, we have 3 kids, so I really don't want to get "stuck" there and have to spend the night.

What say you?


gonna be very very wet, with quite gusty winds, by then.
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2472. Dennis8
Quoting justsouthofnola:
all around the kmart area from what we are told....

ON No SWEET Jesus NOT K MART!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting justsouthofnola:
all around the kmart area from what we are told....


Thank You.


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Link

Gulf Of Mexico - AVN Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
2469. yoboi
Quoting Allyson00:


Tropical Storm Lee Advisory 5Issued: Friday, September 2nd 2011 9:16pm CDT Current Location: 28.3N/91.5W Geographic Reference: 85 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, LA Movement: North at 5 mph Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized Current Hurricane Severity Index: 4 out of a possible 50 points (2 size / 2 intensity) Peak Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (3 size / 3 intensity) Forecast Track Confidence: Average due to the slow movement of this system. This slow movement is expected to continue over the next few days. Changes From Our Previous Forecast We are now forecasting Lee to move over southern Louisiana tomorrow evening. Our Forecast
The center of Lee reformed a little to the north this evening. This has
placed it closer to the coast of Louisiana. A general northward motion
at a very slow forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours, along
with further possible center relocations. Therefore, the timing of
landfall has been accelerated. Landfall is now forecast to occur late
tomorrow in south central Louisiana. After landfall, Lee is forecast to
move slowly for 12 to 24 hours before a gradual acceleration to the
northeast. On this forecast, the center is likely to pass north of New
Orleans during the day Monday. Lee is gradually
becoming better organized and the latest aircraft data indicates the
pressure is slowly falling. Environmental conditions remain somewhat
favorable for slow development and nearly all model guidance indicates
intensification until landfall. Therefore, we are forecasting Lee to
intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before it crosses the coast
tomorrow. There is a slight chance the system could become a hurricane,
though these chances appear lower than earlier. Only slow weakening is
expected after the system moves over land. By next Tuesday, Lee is
forecast to merge with a frontal system over the southeast United
States. The confidence in the intensity forecast remains average. Expected Impacts on Land Louisiana/Mississippi Coasts:
Squalls will affect much of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday morning. Conditions will begin to improve
from the west on Sunday night as Lee begins accelerating off to the
east. Upper Texas Coast: Most of the squalls should remain east of Sabine Pass over the next few days. No significant impact. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf Lease Areas:
Squalls have spread westward to between 92W-93W and extend from the
Louisiana coast south to 25N. This area of squalls will move a little
more to the west over the next day or two, probably to between 93-94W.
Conditions offshore will remain rough with heavy squalls through early
Monday. Conditions will begin improving from the west Sunday night as
Lee begins accelerating off to the east and northeast. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 1AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued by 4AM CDT. Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / David Piece


thanks your the best thats a great site
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2468. DFWjc
This is more like it for Texas....



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Quoting notanothergoof:
<----- NOT SPENDING A DIME ON ANYTHING WHEN THEY SAY KATIA WILL HIT FLORIDA


^^^ May regret that decision
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all around the kmart area from what we are told....
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2465. pudy68
Quoting hurricane556:
Very good website to track Katia and compare with how the models are doing.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/



Doesn't work with IE8 browsers...too bad.
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2464. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye...



If that is really an eye and the one that was visible at 22z was too then Katia is moving west, very slowly.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8668
2463. twooks
Quoting CCkid00:


i'm in Denham Springs. we've had rain for the last 3 or 4 hrs....but mostly light. winds 10-15, gusting to 20.


All we've had was light rain all day off an on. Nothing rally sustained for long periods of times.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

They have soap for that now. ;)


OOPS, typo.... *Stationed*
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074

Quoting yoboi:



what is impact weather saying???

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory 5Issued: Friday, September 2nd 2011 9:16pm CDT Current Location: 28.3N/91.5W Geographic Reference: 85 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, LA Movement: North at 5 mph Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized Current Hurricane Severity Index: 4 out of a possible 50 points (2 size / 2 intensity) Peak Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (3 size / 3 intensity) Forecast Track Confidence: Average due to the slow movement of this system. This slow movement is expected to continue over the next few days. Changes From Our Previous Forecast We are now forecasting Lee to move over southern Louisiana tomorrow evening. Our Forecast
The center of Lee reformed a little to the north this evening. This has
placed it closer to the coast of Louisiana. A general northward motion
at a very slow forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours, along
with further possible center relocations. Therefore, the timing of
landfall has been accelerated. Landfall is now forecast to occur late
tomorrow in south central Louisiana. After landfall, Lee is forecast to
move slowly for 12 to 24 hours before a gradual acceleration to the
northeast. On this forecast, the center is likely to pass north of New
Orleans during the day Monday. Lee is gradually
becoming better organized and the latest aircraft data indicates the
pressure is slowly falling. Environmental conditions remain somewhat
favorable for slow development and nearly all model guidance indicates
intensification until landfall. Therefore, we are forecasting Lee to
intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before it crosses the coast
tomorrow. There is a slight chance the system could become a hurricane,
though these chances appear lower than earlier. Only slow weakening is
expected after the system moves over land. By next Tuesday, Lee is
forecast to merge with a frontal system over the southeast United
States. The confidence in the intensity forecast remains average. Expected Impacts on Land Louisiana/Mississippi Coasts:
Squalls will affect much of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday morning. Conditions will begin to improve
from the west on Sunday night as Lee begins accelerating off to the
east. Upper Texas Coast: Most of the squalls should remain east of Sabine Pass over the next few days. No significant impact. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf Lease Areas:
Squalls have spread westward to between 92W-93W and extend from the
Louisiana coast south to 25N. This area of squalls will move a little
more to the west over the next day or two, probably to between 93-94W.
Conditions offshore will remain rough with heavy squalls through early
Monday. Conditions will begin improving from the west Sunday night as
Lee begins accelerating off to the east and northeast. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 1AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued by 4AM CDT. Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / David Piece
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2460. yoboi
Quoting truecajun:
Hi everyone! Haven't dropped in since last season. Hope you all are doing well. Quick question, that maybe you'll be able to help me with. But, it's possible though that your guess is as good as mine. Either way, the local news isn't helping me out yet.

We live in Baton Rouge and had/have plans to watch the LSU v. Oregon game at a friend's house in Lafayette (about 60 miles SW of Baton Rouge) We were planning on driving BACK to Baton Rouge AFTER the game. (I'm 7 months pregnant, so I'm the desginated driver.)

I'm guessing our drive home will be before the big time rains and higher winds get here?? I don't really want to chance it, but my husband thinks it'll be fine, as do our friends.

Also, we have 3 kids, so I really don't want to get "stuck" there and have to spend the night.

What say you?



how far from vermillion bay will you be is the question thats where lee is going just east of there
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2459. GetReal
Quoting truecajun:
Hi everyone! Haven't dropped in since last season. Hope you all are doing well. Quick question, that maybe you'll be able to help me with. But, it's possible though that your guess is as good as mine. Either way, the local news isn't helping me out yet.

We live in Baton Rouge and had/have plans to watch the LSU v. Oregon game at a friend's house in Lafayette (about 60 miles SW of Baton Rouge) We were planning on driving BACK to Baton Rouge AFTER the game. (I'm 7 months pregnant, so I'm the desginated driver.)

I'm guessing our drive home will be before the big time rains and higher winds get here?? I don't really want to chance it, but my husband thinks it'll be fine, as do our friends.

Also, we have 3 kids, so I really don't want to get "stuck" there and have to spend the night.

What say you?



Watch the game at home.... No need to be on the road and become a possible statistic! IMO
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lee consolidating into a ball? Oil rig reported a gust of 60 mph? Katia slower down more than anticipated? Trough may leave before Katia reaches it?

All bad...
It's not all bad.
It's going to be a nice weekend for those in the Bahamas and along the Texas Coast, for those in Texas who haven't gone loco from the heat and drought.
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Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Winds have picked up in Northern St. Tammany Parish, LA...just had a good sized limb crash down onto my roof (no damage just a lot of noise since the roof is metal). Rain has picked up a good bit as well. We only got @ 3/4 of an inch of rain between 8 am and 8 pm today.
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Quoting justsouthofnola:
its bad down here in houma,LA power went out in some areas..... the last gust was 50 mph on the wind





Ashland South here. What areas are out.
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2454. franck
As with Irene the water vapor loop shows the dry air entraining into Lee looks very geometric. Could a little Tesla science be in play here??
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2453. Patrap
Quoting justsouthofnola:
its bad down here in houma,LA power went out in some areas..... the last gust was 50 mph on the wind gauge


That sounds right as the Vortex is Sw of you offshore.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
2452. CCkid00
Quoting twooks:
Not much has happened here in BR yet, guess I got to wait until tomorrow for anything.

Pretty cloudy today though...

What kind of gust y'all getting in NO?


i'm in Denham Springs. we've had rain for the last 3 or 4 hrs....but mostly light. winds 10-15, gusting to 20.
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2451. yoboi
Quoting RMM34667:
What I find amazing is that it looks like someone told Lee NOT TO GO TO TEXAS so everything just (moisture/rain) just STOPS at the border.




google HAARP explains texas high
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Why thank you! Retired AF eh? My son is in the AF Security Forces stained in Italy now.

They have soap for that now. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everyone! Haven't dropped in since last season. Hope you all are doing well. Quick question, that maybe you'll be able to help me with. But, it's possible though that your guess is as good as mine. Either way, the local news isn't helping me out yet.

We live in Baton Rouge and had/have plans to watch the LSU v. Oregon game at a friend's house in Lafayette (about 60 miles SW of Baton Rouge) We were planning on driving BACK to Baton Rouge AFTER the game. (I'm 7 months pregnant, so I'm the desginated driver.)

I'm guessing our drive home will be before the big time rains and higher winds get here?? I don't really want to chance it, but my husband thinks it'll be fine, as do our friends.

Also, we have 3 kids, so I really don't want to get "stuck" there and have to spend the night.

What say you?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting RMM34667:
What I find amazing is that it looks like someone told Lee NOT TO GO TO TEXAS so everything just (moisture/rain) just STOPS at the border.

No Sh**t....this is ridiculous.  Our rain chances have gone from 5 days of 40 - 60% chance to 2 days of 10%.  BTW......prays go out to east coast hope u guys don't get hit again.
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2446. hahaguy
I think Lee is flashing gang signs.
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its bad down here in houma,LA power went out in some areas..... the last gust was 50 mph on the wind gauge
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2444. Patrap
Newest Frame




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
2443. GetReal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2442. yoboi
Quoting Allyson00:
This sucks...no rain, NO TS watch, instead  we get a fire watch...ugggh!  IS THERE ANY CHANCE THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH TO THE WEST AND WE'LL GET SOME RAIN?

Issued by The National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston, TX
Fri, Sep 2, 2011, 4:17 PM CDT
Local Temperature Map
Updated Sep 2, 2011, 8:55pm CDT

... FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 178... 179... 199... 212... 213... 226... 227... 235 AND 236...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA... FIRE WEATHER ZONES 178... 179... 199... 212... 213... 226... 227... 235 AND 236.

* WIND... AROUND 20 KNOTS

* HUMIDITY... 15 TO 25 PERCENT

* THUNDERSTORMS... NONE

* IMPACTS... ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.


... FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT...

.VERY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CORRIGAN TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLUMBUS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM LEE... MUCH DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS COULD MOVE INTO MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.




what is impact weather saying???
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Eye...

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2438. CC45
Quoting RMM34667:
What I find amazing is that it looks like someone told Lee NOT TO GO TO TEXAS so everything just (moisture/rain) just STOPS at the border.



Looks like there's a giant wall up and down the TX/LA border doesn't it? Nothing's getting in here.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
Lee consolidating into a ball? Oil rig reported a gust of 60 mph? Katia slower down more than anticipated? Trough may leave before Katia reaches it?

All bad...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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