TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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2537. HCW
Quoting scott39:
I just watched the Chief Met in Mobile about Lee. Right now it looks to be a major long rain event and TS winds. Im wondering if the rain will be around long enough to make trees fall down. Oak trees roots here in Mobile dont run deep.


I wouldn't believe a thing that Jason Smith says unless it has to do with fishing :)
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1413
2536. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
Quoting tiggeriffic:


thank you please....but with my luck not...i made reservations last weekend for NEXT weekend at a campsite...then Katia showed her ugly self...had i not made them...she would be going due north by now lol


The best thing would have been if all the models were pointing west in the beginning. then you would expect them to change.. but now for days I've thought this isn't one we have to watch.. It's gonna go nw and miss everyone... I guess we will spend a few more days staring at the loops wondering when it's gonna turn.. And keep believing eventually it will.. Just like they've said all along.
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2534. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
2533. Dennis8
Quoting franck:
I like Patrap graphics.

me too Mikey!
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Quoting Patrap:



When you get off the bench and join the fray,,...LOL

You'll master the Link and Image button one day.


OH SNAP! Mt Dew on the puter screen...SPIT TAKE!
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2531. Dennis8
Precipitation 0.20 in New Orleans Audubon Park
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If she gets in the way of football, the only thing I will be throwing is her---out the door!
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2529. franck
I like Patrap graphics.
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2528. scott39
I just watched the Chief Met in Mobile about Lee. Right now it looks to be a major long rain event and TS winds. Im wondering if the rain will be around long enough to make trees fall down. Oak trees roots here in Mobile dont run deep.
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2527. Dennis8
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Apparently the UKMET has learned about the awesome Hurricane parties Louisiana throws.


YIKES!
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2526. Patrap
Quoting Dennis8:


Shouldn't you be posting a graphic..it has been 5 minutes



When you get off the bench and join the fray,,...LOL

You'll master the Link and Image button one day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
Quoting P451:


Oh, yeah it's still a complete mess.

It's just for the first time it appears to be shedding all that extra crap from itself and has consolidated to a blob.

It's a step in the right direction for continued development.

Still a lot of hurdles to overcome if it were to actually intensify much.



True, it has consolidated - I think it will continue the radical movements moving east will keep it over water and may intensify more. Pensacola is going to get lots and lots of rain..
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Apparently the UKMET has learned about the awesome Hurricane parties Louisiana throws.
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2523. Dennis8
Quoting Patrap:
NAS Belle Chase aint NOLA,,it's on the West Bank down river by 15 miles.



Shouldn't you be posting a graphic..it has been 5 minutes
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Would someone take a look at this loop of Katia, visable, speed it up to full speed and let me know if you think the very last frame is an eye or the coc. tia

Link

Edit, never mind, I see post 2501 sees the same thing
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Signs, Signs, everywhere are signs....


Do this, don't do that, can't you read the signs?
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2520. Patrap
NAS Belle Chase aint NOLA,,it's on the West Bank down river by 15 miles.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
2519. CC45
Quoting bigwes6844:
why the heck is the UKMET looking to bring Katia in the darn GOM??


Isn't that the same model that kept showing Irene going into the GOM?
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2516. Drakoen
Quoting bigwes6844:
why the heck is the UKMET looking to bring Katia in the darn GOM??


Some one gave it a Fresca*
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2515. Dennis8
Quoting sigh:


The rain has been light and intermittent. It will probably get worse, but New Orleans could EASILY handle another 96 hours of this...


Precipitation 1.30 in at NAS New Orleans today...NOT MUCH so far as far as southern rains go..no Tropical downpours for sure!

I have seen that much in 10 minutes in a Tropical system
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Quoting RMM34667:


Ahh.. I think I'll pass on that hope. I say go North girl!


thank you please....but with my luck not...i made reservations last weekend for NEXT weekend at a campsite...then Katia showed her ugly self...had i not made them...she would be going due north by now lol
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Quoting Allyson00:

No Sh**t....this is ridiculous.  Our rain chances have gone from 5 days of 40 - 60% chance to 2 days of 10%.  BTW......prays go out to east coast hope u guys don't get hit again.


I just drove from Slidell to Beaumont, TX and checked into a hotel here about half an hour ago. Here's the very western edge of the storm around sunset just west of Lake Charles:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



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Quoting bigwes6844:
why the heck is the UKMET looking to bring Katia in the darn GOM??


With all the weird stuff these storms are doing this season, I shudder to think what the UKMET is thinking.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
2510. CC45
Quoting JupiterFL:


Signs, Signs, everywhere are signs....


My favorite band, I even got to meet them. Really cool guys and still doing it well after 25 years. Um, I think my age is showing...

Sorry, back to tropics.
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2509. luigi18
Quoting JupiterFL:


Signs, Signs, everywhere are signs....

AC Energy!
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2508. scott39
Quoting P451:
Starting to consolidate and resemble a weak TS.



Dont encourage it now! Lol
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2507. Dennis8
Quoting RMM34667:


Ahh.. I think I'll pass on that hope. I say go North girl!


Oh okay..GO NORTH Girl NORTH
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2506. sigh
Quoting weatherman566:
Looking at New Orleans, they have had sustain winds around 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph and nonstop rain for hours. Flooding is going to be huge story with Lee. In fact, 2011 seems to be pretty epic in regards to flooding in many areas.


The rain has been light and intermittent. It will probably get worse, but New Orleans could EASILY handle another 96 hours of this...
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2505. Dennis8
Quoting bigwes6844:
why the heck is the UKMET looking to bring Katia in the darn GOM??


WHY????????????????????????????
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2504. CCkid00
Quoting Patrap:
Some Lime in the FunkTop

Close to the center now


what does the lime color mean? thanks!! :-)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
Quoting stoormfury:
with Katia moving west at snail's pace, would this not allow the ridge to rebuild stronger and keep it on a west track
Quoting Dennis8:


Lets hope so...ALL of us at once.


Ahh.. I think I'll pass on that hope. I say go North girl!
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...pinhole eye...lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
Hurricane Katia Advisory 19Issued: Friday, September 2nd 2011 2:42pm CDT
Current Location:
18.1N/53.4W
Geographic Reference:
550 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Movement:
West-northwest at 13 mph
Max Winds:
75 mph gusting to 90 mph
Organizational Trend:
Increasing
Current Hurricane Severity Index:
9 out of a possible 50 points (4 size /5 intensity)
Peak Hurricane Severity Index:
24 out of a possible 50 points (11 size /13 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence:
Average, due to reasonable model agreement.
Changes to Our Previous Forecast
We have relocated the center to the north.

Our Forecast

Katia has become a little better organized this afternoon with a
possible eye forming a little north of our previous center. The overall
track remains similar but has been shifted northward. Katia is
expected to pass well north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands on Sunday.
A slight westerly turn is possible early next week followed by a turn
to the north and north-northeast late in the week. This track will keep
Katia east of the U.S. East Coast but it could pass close enough for
some of the outer squalls to brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina
late next week. Upper-level wind shear over Katia
weakened earlier in the day, allowing it to become a hurricane again
late this morning. Conditions are favorable for additional
strengthening and we think Katia will eventually be a category 2 or 3
hurricane as it moves northward off the East Coast. The confidence in
the intensity forecast remains about average.

Expected Impacts on Land

High waves could affect the north facing beaches of the Virgin Islands
and northern Leeward Islands this weekend. Outer squalls could move over
the far northern islands by late Saturday or early Sunday. Our next full advisory will be issued by 10PM CDT. Meteorologists: Jim Palmer/Matt Haworth
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why the heck is the UKMET looking to bring Katia in the darn GOM??
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Evenin' 2nd shift!

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HWRF Model
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Why do I think Katia is going to fool the forecasters and end up doing what Andrew did
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Quoting P451:
Starting to consolidate and resemble a weak TS.





Still westerly sheer and it looks like the center may relocate south and east...
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2494. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
2493. GetReal
recon is finding some surprising strong winds on the NW side of Lee:

Time: 02:12:00Z
Coordinates: 28.9N 92.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,520 meters (~ 4,987 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 54° at 42 knots (From the NE at ~ 48.3 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (~ 64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
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Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
2491. CCkid00
Quoting twooks:


All we've had was light rain all day off an on. Nothing rally sustained for long periods of times.

i'm actually in between DS and Walker. my Dad is in DS and he hasn't had the rain we have had in the last hour or so. our winds just started gusting good about an hour ago and are picking up.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
Quoting CC45:


I love Tesla. It's not what ya got it's what you give...

Tesla science, Tesla coil, pretty cool too. ;)


Signs, Signs, everywhere are signs....
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2489. Dennis8
Quoting divdog:
How long before it goes inland ??
could reform inland
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2488. DFWjc
Quoting jonelu:
That was a good one!!! Poor Texas...


I'm working outside for the LSU/Oregon CFB game tomorrow, and I'm not liking the forecast for tomorrow... :(
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2487. Dennis8
Quoting JupiterFL:


Is that Ron Paul?

Unshaved
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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