TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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2887. Levi32
Quoting mcluvincane:


This is true, but It looks like lee will pull Katia more west instead of kicking her out


I don't really think so, unless Lee gets trapped over the southern states and regrogrades back to the southwest as Katia gets to 70W. At this point that is not a solution favored by any model that I see.
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Quoting pcola57:


I agree with you Cosmic.
Without the NHC's input....The discussions here would be mute.
IMO


Agree. The ones here that have been questioning the NHC are certainly no trolls. In fact, they are some of the most respected bloggers here. We have disagreements every now and then. They disagree with the NHC, people like me disagree with them. It happens. It's not a huge issue. It's not "dramatic" like some from the outside portray it. It's a debate. The personal attacks come about when trolls get involved...or just rude people.
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2885. scott39
Quoting MississippiWx:


Recon confirmed a SW drift, so no.
With it drifting WSW, doesnt mean it couldnt be drifting NNE now.
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Quoting Levi32:
Never be afraid to go up against people in high places...

It's ok to disagree with the government agency. Seriously. Just be factual, reasonable, and civilized about it.

Do you guys realize that if the NHC was the word of God then there would be no place for us?

Levi, I agree with what you said here.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MississippiWx:


I like it. Seems more organized and everything you need is right in front of you.


My thoughts exactly, easier to find things much less scrolling.
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2882. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


Um that's not true. Look back at my videos from the last several days and you will see that my first mention of Lee's influence on Katia would be to bulster the ridge between them and kick her out, if he was around as a significant system over the gulf when Katia got to 65W or so.

August 30th Tidbit


Now on Monday I spoke of mischief in the western gulf possibly retrograding westward and helping to lower heights and pull Katia farther west too. That was a different situation where we would have a weak area of low pressure moving westward, not north. Once it became clear Lee would be a northern gulf issue and a stronger system, the dynamics there changed. Back on Monday this whole Lee situation was speculation, and thus I was only listing off possibilities.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


If there was a tropical cyclone approaching Florida, and the NHC had a tropical storm force wind field over me while I'm only getting 20 mph gusts, I'm not going to say "well you know I'm only getting 20 mph winds now but they're experts, so there must be 35 knot winds right nearby because they can't be wrong".

No, sorry, that's illogical. The wind field map is incorrect. I rest my case.
correct me if I am wrong but the wind field map does not mean that EVERYWHERE shaded in orange ARE feeling XX knot winds, instead isnt it supposed to depict a defined area where winds with a speed of XX knots CAN be found.
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2880. CCkid00
Quoting jascott1967:


Thanks. Will do. By the way, your prediction of Lee wavered and you contradicted yourself in the influence Lee (prior to Lee even being designated) would have on Katia. In your tidbit from Monday you said the GOM disturbance would try to pull Katia more westward and when asked the question later you said Lee would have very little or no effect on Katia.

You are not consistent.


that reminds me of my kids....when i say one thing and we end up doing another. THINGS CHANGE.....doesn't make me a liar, it's just the situation may deem a change. if Levi said one thing and now says another......just means the situation changed.
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2879. DFWjc
Quoting JasonisAFOOLman:
WHY DOES EVERYONE NEW GET ACCUSED OF BEING A TROLL THIS IS WORSE THAN A FRAT. IM JUST REPEATING WHAT I SEE IN MY OBSERVATIONS AND WHAT I HEAR FROM CANTORE ON TWC. BASTARDI NO WAY HE IS A FERD.


1st do it without caps...
2nd do it with a reliable source....
3rd do it without sounding like a troll....
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Quoting Levi32:


Um that's entirely untrue. Look back at my videos from the last several days and you will see that my first mention of its influence on here would be to bulster the ridge between them and kick her out.

August 30th Tidbit


This is true, but It looks like lee will pull Katia more west instead of kicking her out
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2876. pcola57
Quoting CosmicEvents:
There haven't been trolls questioning the NHC.
You can go 2-3 years without seeing me, or KMan, question what the NHC says. When it's something as simple as a 2 points on a map, and the NHC's own points, tell one tale(280 degrees and 8), and the discussion, which never previously mentioned a possibility of a shift and change of speed, then says it's been going 305 and 12, without even noting the discrepancy, there's room to question.


I agree with you Cosmic.
Without the NHC's input....The discussions here would be mute.They are the pro's.
IMO
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
What are everyones opinions of the new model page on the NOAA site?

Link


I like it. Seems more organized and everything you need is right in front of you.
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Quoting scooster67:
Looking at the Dvorak. Lee seems to be drifting a little East of due North.?

Link


Recon confirmed a SW drift, so no.
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What are everyones opinions of the new model page on the NOAA site?

Link
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2872. CCkid00
Quoting Levi32:


Honestly I wouldn't expect to actually see 50mph sustained winds that far inland with a storm like this. However, gusts to tropical storm force are likely, and that much rain or more.

My general thinking is unchanged, though the timeline may have to be bumped up a bit due to Lee's little northwest jump this evening. It's a delicate situation due to weak steering currents, and the exact timing of when the center crosses the coast is not an easy forecast to make right now. Some models like the Euro still keep it over water until Sunday night. That might be too long given where the center is right now, but we'll see. I'm still sticking with a landfall on Sunday. It looks like the time allotted will only allow Lee to be a moderate-strong tropical storm though.


thank you!! :-)
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Looking at the Dvorak. Lee seems to be drifting a little East of due North.?

Link
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2870. DFWjc
Quoting MoltenIce:
Ignore that troll and move on...

(Not referring to you DFW. :S)


but it's sooo tempting.. i need to blow something up, where's my buddy with the mini nuke YT video?
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2869. Levi32
Quoting jascott1967:


Thanks. Will do. By the way, your prediction of Lee wavered and you contradicted yourself in the influence Lee (prior to Lee even being designated) would have on Katia. In your tidbit from Monday you said the GOM disturbance would try to pull Katia more westward and when asked the question later you said Lee would have very little or no effect on Katia.

You are not consistent.


Um that's not true. Look back at my videos from the last several days and you will see that my first mention of Lee's influence on Katia would be to bulster the ridge between them and kick her out, if he was around as a significant system over the gulf when Katia got to 65W or so.

August 30th Tidbit
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Quoting Patrap:


Were trying to get ya some relief,,and I know any will help over there

Thank you, Sir.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and once Satan's vacation here ends, all manner of moisture will come screaming in.

We're at least as accomplished at drowning as we are at burning...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey, if there was a tropical cyclone approaching Florida, and the NHC had a tropical storm force wind field over me while I'm only getting 20 mph gusts, I'm not going to say "well you know I'm only getting 20 mph winds now but they're experts, so there must be 35 knot winds right nearby".

No, sorry, that's illogical. The wind field map is incorrect. I rest my case.


Ok, whatever. You use whatever data you want. I'll use recon's data and the data from the NHC.
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There haven't been trolls questioning the NHC.
You can go 2-3 years without seeing me, or KMan, question what the NHC says. When it's something as simple as a 2 points on a map, and the NHC's own points, tell one tale(280 degrees and 8), and the discussion, which never previously mentioned a possibility of a shift and change of speed, then says it's been going 305 and 12, without even noting the discrepancy, there's room to question.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


That graphic was of Katia not Lee.. it sure looked like a small eye forming. But then again. I have been looking at this screen for hours now, I could going cross-eyed
Sorry u right I have been looking at this too long
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


That graphic was of Katia not Lee.. it sure looked like a small eye forming. But then again. I have been looking at this screen for hours now, I could going cross-eyed


mw imagery shows a medium sized eye trying to form. struggling, though.
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2863. JGreco
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moved SSW since the last fix.

000
URNT12 KNHC 030402
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 03/03:33:40Z
B. 27 deg 57 min N
091 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1418 m
D. 28 kt
E. 225 deg 12 nm
F. 325 deg 25 kt
G. 223 deg 11 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 20 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0413A LEE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 02:15:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 33 KT NE QUAD 03:50:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 214 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;



Oh Lord...here we go..maybe the spaghetti models were right withe the loop-tee-loop-tee-loop scenario:0
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
Quoting MississippiWx:


Once again, the bashing of Lee's wind field is inaccurate. The NHC is using RECON DATA, not buoys that average an 8 minute wind speed together. I don't know how to be any more simple with the explanation. Then, you bring in Neapolitan's post about how to read the wind graphic.

Yes this is a blog about opinion, but it has been constant the past two nights. We act like we know more than they do from the limited amount of information that we have. That is absolutely ludicrous. I could understand a disagreement, then moving on. However, the dead horse has been beaten so much that you can barely tell it was a horse. We understand the disagreement, however, let the NHC decide what is what in the end and leave it at that.


If there was a tropical cyclone approaching Florida, and the NHC had a tropical storm force wind field over me while I'm only getting 20 mph gusts, I'm not going to say "well you know I'm only getting 20 mph winds now but they're experts, so there must be 35 knot winds right nearby because they can't be wrong".

No, sorry, that's illogical. The wind field map is incorrect. I rest my case.
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Quoting rushisaband:
some on here need to turn your computers off for a while and do something else ... like jog in one place for about an hour or so. there is life beyond your computer ..........


there is? oh right, it's called Second Life, oh wait, that is on the computer too...
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is Lee poofing?




no
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Quoting Levi32:
Never be afraid to go up against people in high places...

It's ok to disagree with the government agency. Seriously. Just be factual, reasonable, and civilized about it.

Do you guys realize that if the NHC was the word of God then there would be no place for us?

Just my 2 cents for the night.


Thanks. Will do. By the way, your prediction of Lee wavered and you contradicted yourself in the influence Lee (prior to Lee even being designated) would have on Katia. In your tidbit from Monday you said the GOM disturbance would try to pull Katia more westward and when asked the question later you said Lee would have very little or no effect on Katia.

You are not consistent.
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some on here need to turn your computers off for a while and do something else ... like jog in one place for about an hour or so. there is life beyond your computer ..........
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2855. scott39
The EURO has Lee putting on the brakes before landfall. We will see.
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Quoting DFWjc:


speaking of...
Ignore that troll and move on...

(Not referring to you DFW. :S)
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Quoting JGreco:



oh I know. Especially that one dude that always changes his name ...ie...yada yada...florida...I can't even remember now (must not have been important;)) but kept on just saying Katia will be a Cat 5 plow into Florida...cat 5 in NC...oh wait...a cat 5 in the gulf....over and over again. I poofed him, but he changed his name again. If there isn't a sign of mental illness, I don't know what else is:o


Agree.. he suffers from something, that is for sure! I am not sure if stupidity is an actual ailment but it sounds good to me. To bad there is no known cure or treatment except a large dose of iggy has been known to contain it at times.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
2851. Levi32
Quoting CCkid00:

Levi,

has your take on Lee changed any? i live about 10 miles due east of Baton Rouge. our local Met is saying that Lee will come directly over us, with 50 mph sustained winds, with higher gusts and 9.50" of rain. does that sound reasonable this far inland?


Honestly I wouldn't expect to actually see 50mph sustained winds that far inland with a storm like this. However, gusts to tropical storm force are likely, and that much rain or more.

My general thinking is unchanged, though the timeline may have to be bumped up a bit due to Lee's little northwest jump this evening. It's a delicate situation due to weak steering currents, and the exact timing of when the center crosses the coast is not an easy forecast to make right now. Some models like the Euro still keep it over water until Sunday night. That might be too long given where the center is right now, but we'll see. I'm still sticking with a landfall on Sunday. It looks like the time allotted will only allow Lee to be a moderate-strong tropical storm though.
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Moved SSW since the last fix.

000
URNT12 KNHC 030402
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 03/03:33:40Z
B. 27 deg 57 min N
091 deg 55 min W

C. 850 mb 1418 m
D. 28 kt
E. 225 deg 12 nm
F. 325 deg 25 kt
G. 223 deg 11 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 20 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0413A LEE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 02:15:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 33 KT NE QUAD 03:50:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 214 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

;
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2849. JGreco
Quoting DFWjc:


wait until the trolls come in



oh I know. Especially that one dude that always changes his name ...ie...yada yada...florida...I can't even remember now (must not have been important;)) but kept on just saying Katia will be a Cat 5 plow into Florida...cat 5 in NC...oh wait...a cat 5 in the gulf....over and over again. I poofed him, but he changed his name again. If there isn't a sign of mental illness, I don't know what else is:o
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
Quoting weatherrx:
No way this thing called Lee looks more like a winter storm than a tropical storm


That graphic was of Katia not Lee.. it sure looked like a small eye forming. But then again. I have been looking at this screen for hours now, I could going cross-eyed
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Is Lee poofing?
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:



is that a little wink of an eye I see?
No way this thing called Lee looks more like a winter storm than a tropical storm
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2845. DFWjc
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


you just had to say something about them didn't you LOL


(hangs head in shame)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think both you and Miami have made valid points, Miami in defense of oneself, and you in defense of the NHC. I see no problem in either one. And I think this is where the debate reaches a deadlock gridlock, now I think it's time we move on to another topic, like what is at stake here from Lee and the flooding he will bring to areas in the Northern Gulf Coast and Southeast, and to sort out the different scenarios the computer models are presenting from Katia.


Yeah, the problem is that both sides have valid points and that's kind of the reason why the debate isn't going anywhere. Lol.
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Quoting DFWjc:


speaking of...


you just had to say something about them didn't you LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
2842. Levi32
43kts sustained east of the mouth of the Mississippi within the last hour.

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Quoting Jedkins01:


No, I'm in college right now, I think I would know?

I would get a C, because I put in the effort, but if my map was based on tropical storm force winds but the data I provided doesn't support that, the project becomes rather pointless.
Then you haven't been in college long enough...if you are good at giving supportive reasoning that would provide enough evidence to back it up, your project would be a success. The idea in a situation like that would be to be able to convince your professor, whether right or wrong, not just spit out an answer cause that's what the map/graph shows.
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2840. DFWjc
Quoting JasonisAFOOLman:
HEY HEY HEY! SO IS KATIA HEADING TO MIAMI OR WHAT? DROP OFF THE KEY TS LEE GO HOME FREE


speaking of...
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2839. CCkid00
Quoting Levi32:
Never be afraid to go up against people in high places...

It's ok to disagree with the government agency. Seriously. Just be factual, reasonable, and civilized about it.

Do you guys realize that if the NHC was the word of God then there would be no place for us?

Just my 2 cents for the night.

Levi,

has your take on Lee changed any? i live about 10 miles due east of Baton Rouge. our local Met is saying that Lee will come directly over us, with 50 mph sustained winds, with higher gusts and 9.50" of rain. does that sound reasonable this far inland?
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Wow the new fix for Lee is to the SW. Did not expect that.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
2837. pcola57
Quoting pcola57:


High scoring game!!...I like to watch those kind of games where the offense actually clicks like that.Keep us informed!!

78.6 and RH of 80% here in P'cola


Great news ...Thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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