TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Oh lordy, this blog sometimes.. LOL.

Tropical Storm Lee is a 60 mph Tropical Storm according to the NHC.

That's what it is, they've been having a recon flying in there finding them winds, and the recon data isn't always 100% available to us, even if its on tropical recon site.

Recon data > Buoy data.

That's just the facts.

Storms like Jose though, not so much should be named. But TS Lee is a TS. No matter how much we disagree, that's what it is.
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Lee.
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3785. GetReal


Rain west of the Sabine into Texas!!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8896
On vis sat. Lee is producing a beautiful off shore effect from all the dry air coming off the Texas coast.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Wow man what are you looking at(no offense buddy lol) if the storm is really at 29.3 degrees Lat Like the NHC said it was then thats the circulation right off the coast of Vermillion and it is drifting west if it was moving NNW it would have at least made landfall by now at them coordinates


I guess we'll have to wait for recon. Lee has consistently been a difficult storm to forecast.
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Quoting P451:
Tropical Storm Lee:



More resembles in satellite signature a winter storm: (that actually had 60mph sustained winds extending 100s of miles)



Than a tropical storm:




I just hope Louisiana can pull through this wide region of 60mph/75mph Gusts unscathed.

200 miles east, 200 miles north, 200 miles south. An area of 60mph sustained winds 200 miles wide by 400 miles deep is nothing to fool with!

Unless, of course, the most you find is a 46mph sustained wind 122M above the surface on a single oil rig.

Then, maybe just maybe, NOLA will be spared widespread wind damage.



Your right about it looking like a "Norther"... That easily brings 30-40kt sustained winds for a day... The only difference is the rain... And of course the cool air mass after
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by Eric Berger/SciGuy:
"Don’t believe the hype about Katia menacing the East Coast next week."
Should we believe Eric Berger?


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Quoting notanothergoof:
STOP WATCHING THE MODELS EVERY YEAR OR THE EXPERT WEATHER FORCASTORS YOU SHOULD KNOW THAT BY NOW


Really?
oh, and STOP YELLING!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, and I don't really think it's becoming that much better organized. IMO, it's changed little since this morning.


Again i would have to respectfully disagree that moisture on the western side looks to be trying to wrap around nicely which would filter out the dry air somewhat...
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3773. scott39
Quoting P451:
Tropical Storm Lee:



More resembles in satellite signature a winter storm: (that actually had 60mph sustained winds extending 100s of miles)



Than a tropical storm:




I just hope Louisiana can pull through this wide region of 60mph/75mph Gusts unscathed.

200 miles east, 200 miles north, 200 miles south. An area of 60mph sustained winds 200 miles wide by 400 miles deep is nothing to fool with!

Unless, of course, the most you find is a 46mph sustained wind 122M above the surface on a single oil rig.

Then, maybe just maybe, NOLA will be spared widespread wind damage.

It looks likes the worst storms are still ESE from the center out in the GOM. Wind shear and dry air shouldnt disrupt those storms as they slide N.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
3771. A4Guy
Quoting notanothergoof:
HAVE THE MODELS GOT TOGETHER YET ON WHERE LEE WILL MAKE LANDFALL? OR DO WE HAVE WAIT UNTIL TOMMOROW?


http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20wea ther/hurricane%20model%20plots
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Quoting tkeith:
I just came off of a tug boat an hour ago. We were getting 30-35 sustained, had a couple a gust bumpin 50 at the HPL bridge.
Very Heavy rain in the Mandeville area. If this keeps up for another hour or two, we will see flooding.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Still looks NNW to me. Perhaps a hint of a westward component.


Wow man what are you looking at(no offense buddy lol) if the storm is really at 29.3 degrees Lat Like the NHC said it was then thats the circulation right off the coast of Vermillion and it is drifting west if it was moving NNW it would have at least made landfall by now at them coordinates
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Quoting mojofearless:

Neither - he was two blocks in on either side and already had someone helping him push. Looked to be submerged about halfway up his doors, but it was a little car.


Look for that one to be on the used car lot once it dries out!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Still looks NNW to me. Perhaps a hint of a westward component.


Oh, and I don't really think it's becoming that much better organized. IMO, it's changed little since this morning.
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Quoting tkeith:
I just came off of a tug boat an hour ago. We were getting 30-35 sustained, had a couple a gust bumpin 50 at the HPL bridge.


A bumpy ride, Keith!
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Quoting uptxcoast:
Millions of trees in the Houston area are likely to perish due to the drought gripping the state, potentially worsening air quality problems, destroying wildlife habitat and making the area warmer, experts said.

The most dire prediction came from Barry Ward, executive director of the nonprofit Trees for Houston, who estimated that 66 million trees - about 10 percent of the entire canopy in the eight-county Houston area - would die within two years as a result of the worst drought in Houston's history.

Houston city workers are removing dead trees from city parks, including Memorial Park, where at least 341 trees have died - some from pine bark beetles but others due to the drought, said Joe Turner, director of the city's Parks and Recreation Department.

Link

Click the link above for the entire story but it is rather depressing.


Bad all the way around. Between the freeze last winter and the drought I've lost 6 palm trees.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Do you see this westward slide by the COC also...Look at the NWS radar out of Lake Charles...definitely looks like this storm is coming together also


Still looks NNW to me. Perhaps a hint of a westward component.
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3760. A4Guy
Quoting MZT:
WeatherGuy03 making the same points on his blog. The inducement on Katia very influnced by how long Lee stays over land and his northeast track.

Tropical storms repeal each other - but I suppose a weakening storm over land without much outflow creates an attractive force like a trough does.


Seems like as of this morning, the models have come into much better agreement that the trof of low pressure will pull Katia north, then northeast. Models are clearly not perfect...but there would need to be a dramatic change in the pattern to show a w-ward movement back towards the coast, IMHO.
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3758. AtlCan
Quoting WeatherInterest:
Crown Weather:
"I think Katia will struggle today due to the shear and dry air, however, shear levels will drop off once we get into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and Katia should be a Category 2 hurricane on Tuesday. I think we will see Katia track west-northwestward to near 28 North Latitude, 73 West Longitude before it turns to the north on Thursday. From there, I think Katia will track north-northeastward moving just east of the outer banks of North Carolina and then tracking extremely closely to eastern New England on Friday followed by a possible impact into Nova Scotia next weekend.

The future track of the remnants of Lee is a key part of the forecast for next week. The difference in some of the models is that they track Lee much quicker to the northeast, which breaks down the ridge of high pressure and causing Katia to turn much quicker into the open Atlantic. If the remnants of Lee stalls instead, what could happen is that the ridge of high pressure would build back to the west and cause Katia to track westward all the way to the US East Coast. So, the remnants of Lee is a big key in this forecast."




It is early yet I know but they are already talking about Katia here in Nova Scotia. All signs are pointing to a possible direct hit similar to Juan. Keep in mind that up here even a Cat 1 can cause severe damage.
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Millions of trees in the Houston area are likely to perish due to the drought gripping the state, potentially worsening air quality problems, destroying wildlife habitat and making the area warmer, experts said.

The most dire prediction came from Barry Ward, executive director of the nonprofit Trees for Houston, who estimated that 66 million trees - about 10 percent of the entire canopy in the eight-county Houston area - would die within two years as a result of the worst drought in Houston's history.

Houston city workers are removing dead trees from city parks, including Memorial Park, where at least 341 trees have died - some from pine bark beetles but others due to the drought, said Joe Turner, director of the city's Parks and Recreation Department.

Link

Click the link above for the entire story but it is rather depressing.
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3756. CCkid00
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
its amazing to me to see this horrible drought airmass even get sucked into LEE as he gets closer to shore... wow... pretty potent airmass. This will probably help the rainfall not be as high especially in deep south Louisiana IF the dry continues to affect LEE... in fact, most of the models show the most rainfall from LEE occuring between Slidell, LA to Mobile, AL... interesting...

we are at 5.25" ALREADY....rained the last 12 hours non-stop....winds gusting to 35.....in Denham Springs.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Where do you live? Gusts have consistently been in the 30 to 35 mph range in Prairieville. I estimate our highest gust was around 45 mph.


Do you see this westward slide by the COC also...Look at the NWS radar out of Lake Charles...definitely looks like this storm is coming together also
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3754. tkeith
Quoting KoritheMan:


Where do you live? Gusts have consistently been in the 30 to 35 mph range in Prairieville. I estimate our highest gust was around 45 mph.
I just came off of a tug boat an hour ago. We were getting 30-35 sustained, had a couple a gust bumpin 50 at the HPL bridge.
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3752. scott39
Quoting mcluvincane:
just a few more weeks and Hurricane season will be over. Nothing on the horizon after Katia and Lee on the models. The peek of the season is Sept 10 and It doesn't look like there will even be a storm brewing on that date. Not that bad of a Season for the CONUS besides Vermont, other than that the CONUS looks like it will be unscathed again this year from a major cane. Kept hearing of this dangerous pattern that was setting up for a direct hit for the CONUS this year from many reliable mets, looks the mother nature decided to take those predictions and throw them out the door. I personally am tired of hearing all the hype at the beginning of the season which never pans out.
Its Sept 3rd and stop watching T.V. That should help:)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
TS.Lee's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 2Sept_12pmGMT and ending 3Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormLee's path
and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Lee's travel-speed was 5.8mph(9.4k/h) on a heading of 350degrees(N)
TS.Lee was headed toward passage over IntracoastalCity,Lousiana ~8hours from now
(after having passed over MarshIslandStateWildlifeRefuge)

Copy&paste gls, 27.2n91.4w-27.4n91.5w, 27.4n91.5w-28.0n91.5w, 28.0n91.5w-28.5n91.8w, 28.5n91.8w-29.0n91.9w, lch, 28.5n91.8w-29.77n92.056w, ara, nbg into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 3Sept_6amGMT)
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


The definition of "shoreline" down here gets very gray. What do you count as "land?" Dry 50% of the time? 100%?

I agree...
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all.

Never seen recon fly in that many circles before. They must be having some sort of issue.

Wow!
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
...and another thing... I'm sort of disappointed with the winds/expected winds from this TS LEE so far. As of 10pm last night we in the orange area of tropical storm force winds... and still today we have only received gust to around 30mph or a little higher.... Why would the NHC put us in the tropical storm force winds if we havent received any Tropical Storm Gusts MUCH LESS and Tropical Storm sustained winds? very confusing to me...

The winds come in the rain squalls...
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just a few more weeks and Hurricane season will be over. Nothing on the horizon after Katia and Lee on the models. The peek of the season is Sept 10 and It doesn't look like there will even be a storm brewing on that date. Not that bad of a Season for the CONUS besides Vermont, other than that the CONUS looks like it will be unscathed again this year from a major cane. Kept hearing of this dangerous pattern that was setting up for a direct hit for the CONUS this year from many reliable mets, looks the mother nature decided to take those predictions and throw them out the door. I personally am tired of hearing all the hype at the beginning of the season which never pans out.
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Quoting LAnovice:

Be interested to know how accurate the "shoreline" is for south LA - it is very marshy in that area and there have been years of erosion.
Looks like Lee is bumping into something and not sure he wants to go there....


The definition of "shoreline" down here gets very gray. What do you count as "land?" Dry 50% of the time? 100%?
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3743. scott39
Quoting wxobsvps:


You will be hard pressed to find any of the forecasted DOOM from Lee. Dry air never allowed for anything of true significance to get going.

TS Lee is a huge joke. NOLA has worse memories from TD5 a year or two back.
Wheres the joke in flooding?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
...and another thing... I'm sort of disappointed with the winds/expected winds from this TS LEE so far. As of 10pm last night we in the orange area of tropical storm force winds... and still today we have only received gust to around 30mph or a little higher.... Why would the NHC put us in the tropical storm force winds if we havent received any Tropical Storm Gusts MUCH LESS and Tropical Storm sustained winds? very confusing to me...


Where do you live? Gusts have consistently been in the 30 to 35 mph range in Prairieville. I estimate our highest gust was around 45 mph.
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Is there anything else out there that is expected to form in the near future? I have been hearing hints that the pattern may change and allow for more west moving storms as opposed to our train of fish/Novia Scotia storms. Florida has yet to even sniff a threat from a storm this year and that is very surprising.
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cant post a pic but 6z GFS in 3 weeks shows a hurricane in the western carribean and 2 tropical storms off africa
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
I noticed that too..
Oh, good Morning!!
Steady rain falling here.


Morning Beach, good to see ya.

It's like one of their hats flew out the window and they're running around looking for it...
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3737. MZT
Quoting WeatherInterest:
Crown Weather:
If the remnants of Lee stalls instead, what could happen is that the ridge of high pressure would build back to the west and cause Katia to track westward all the way to the US East Coast. So, the remnants of Lee is a big key in this forecast."

WeatherGuy03 making the same points on his blog. The inducement on Katia very influnced by how long Lee stays over land and his northeast track.

Tropical storms repeal each other - but I suppose a weakening storm over land without much outflow creates an attractive force like a trough does.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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