TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2937 - 2887

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

2937. srada
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Hi everyone.. hope everyone is playing nice haha .. Well just checking up and been busy.. hmm a SW drift by Lee.. Thats not good, more time in the water def has a chance to get stronger.. Specially for a slow mover like this one..

Hey i had a thought earlier.. Can we name the next hurricane Shaniqua or something? I feel like if we give hurricanes ghetto names, people will be more inclined to get away from them. Hurricane Irene sounds friendly. Hurricane Shaniqua will rip out your weave if you look at it wrong.. what y'all think?? lol


hmmm..what I think is that Jackie Moon (Will Ferrell) wants his look back..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Levi or Mississipi.. Or anyone that wants to answer if y'all want.. After this SW drift, would it be possible if it stalls.. If it does.. What direction you think it will go from there? Back to the North or go NNE or neither of those..


A drift to the north for a couple of days is more likely, followed by an acceleration to the northeast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2935. JGreco
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, that's the most inaccurate statement of the night.


Thats funny...didn't Taz just state that they found gusts higher than the sustained winds currently depicted on the NHC site for Lee. I must have been imagining things....never mind.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
Quoting Levi32:


Um that's entirely untrue. Look back at my videos from the last several days and you will see that my first mention of Lee's influence on Katia would be to bulster the ridge between them and kick her out, if he was around as a significant system over the gulf when Katia got to 65W or so.

August 30th Tidbit


That's not at all the scenario you portrayed. I know damn well you had the disturbance in the gulf tugging Katia into the lower CONUS as a possibility. I watch your tidbits, I find them informative and I know you're not being honest with the one you doctored regarding the GOM disturbance and Katia. No shame in admiting you're wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2933. pcola57
Quoting franck:
Moot. Sorry, had to.


Thanks...a duh moment...And Bielle..If we had "no public accessable info" from the NCH was my point..Sorry I wasn't more clear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi or Mississipi.. Or anyone that wants to answer if y'all want.. After this SW drift, would it be possible if it stalls.. If it does.. What direction you think it will go from there? Back to the North or go NNE or neither of those..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2930. GetReal


IMO professional opinion (I slept at a Holiday Inn Express once) there is an interesting fearure on this RGB pic of Lee. For the very first time in Lee's existence, there are T-storms that have developed on the western edge of the COC, and they are not being sheared off.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah but when there are no tropical storm force winds present in the entire area, I'm not going to just believe the NHC is right because they said so. The NHC are weather experts, and I do have a lot of respect for them, but they are human beings, and they can be wrong, they didn't create the Universe.
I believe both Levi and recon has proved otherwise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


You know things are bad here in Texas when we have to ration our dehydrated water!
Very funny stuff ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah but when there are no tropical storm force winds present in the entire area, I'm not going to just believe the NHC is right because they said so. The NHC are weather experts, and I do have a lot of respect for them, but they are human beings, and they can be wrong, they didn't create the Universe.


Well, that's the most inaccurate statement of the night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting franck:


Yep, we're going to push him over there on top of ya'll.


Sweet! Ya'll are just to kind to us parched Texans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2925. DFWjc
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
looks like Fujiwara? 132 hours

fujiwhara...with only one TC ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2923. JGreco
Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol...Lee is just meandering around...



I guess we will see what Diurnal max brings to the table.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
2922. franck
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I was away for a few minutes.. did I see that Lee is taking a SW turn now?


Yep, we're going to push him over there on top of ya'll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2921. DFWjc
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Sry u think i was be racist on this.. Im not racist.. Y u put the race card on me like that.. LOL some ppl these days need to loosen up.. crying out loud!


never said you were, just don't wanna go there two nights in a row... no offense to you, just saying that's all. my apologies if you took it that way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
correct me if I am wrong but the wind field map does not mean that EVERYWHERE shaded in orange ARE feeling XX knot winds, instead isnt it supposed to depict a defined area where winds with a speed of XX knots CAN be found.


Yeah but when there are no tropical storm force winds present in the entire area, I'm not going to just believe the NHC is right because they said so. The NHC are weather experts, and I do have a lot of respect for them, but they are human beings, and they can be wrong, they didn't create the Universe.

To err is human.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
Quoting Levi32:


Um that's not true. Look back at my videos from the last several days and you will see that my first mention of Lee's influence on Katia would be to bulster the ridge between them and kick her out, if he was around as a significant system over the gulf when Katia got to 65W or so.

August 30th Tidbit


Levi, just ignore him. most of us know you are one of the most insightful people on here. those who say otherwise are just trying to start trouble and draw attention.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol...Lee is just meandering around...

Edit: My recon pic isn't working, but take my word on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2916. twooks
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I was away for a few minutes.. did I see that Lee is taking a SW turn now?


His center just reformed to the SW, that's all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2914. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #84
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TALAS (T1112)
12:00 PM JST September 3 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Shikoku region of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Talas (985 hPa) located near 34.0N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
300 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 37.7N 133.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 44.5N 135.7E - Extratropical

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Quoting scooster67:


Closer look.


Damn, I'm tired. Night Y'all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2912. franck
Moot. Sorry, had to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2911. Walshy
"Fran strengthened to a category three hurricane by the time it was northeast of the central Bahamas on 4 September. The powerful tropical cyclone began to be influenced by a cyclonic circulation centered over Tennessee that was most pronounced in mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Fran was steered by the resulting flow around the low over Tennessee and the western extension of the subtropical ridge over the northwest Atlantic. The hurricane gradually turned toward the northwest to north- northwest and increased in forward speed."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I don't really think so, unless Lee gets trapped over the southern states and regrogrades back to the southwest as Katia gets to 70W. At this point that is not a solution favored by any model that I see.


Bryan Norcross

Now Hurricane Katia: The forecast is VERY tricky. Bottom line, the threat to the East Coast, especially NC and New England continues. For the next 5 days, Katia will head directly toward the SE US. Then...not sure. How the jet stream and Lee's remnants interact, and the inland position of ex-Lee, will turn Katia out to sea or bring it over or near the East Coast. Forecast has not been good on strength either, so high uncertainty. Threat days: Thu/Fri.

Looks like Norcross is thinking it could or couldn't
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2909. DFWjc
Quoting TampaSpin:



this sounds nasty and dirty..............LOL


Tampa's the only one to catch that, BRAVO! (golf claps)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2908. Bielle
Quoting pcola57:


I agree with you Cosmic.
Without the NHC's input....The discussions here would be mute.They are the pro's.
IMO


Mute discussion? Not likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2907. ncstorm
looks like fujiwara? 132 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
I was away for a few minutes.. did I see that Lee is taking a SW turn now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


1st do it without caps...
2nd do it with a reliable source....
3rd do it without sounding like a troll....



this sounds nasty and dirty..............LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
recon found SFMR winds of 50kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2903. scott39
Remember the loop that the models showed with Lee. He is doing that a little bit. His center is not under that big ball of convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2902. pcola57
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agree. The ones here that have been questioning the NHC are certainly no trolls. In fact, they are some of the most respected bloggers here. We have disagreements every now and then. They disagree with the NHC, people like me disagree with them. It happens. It's not a huge issue. It's not "dramatic" like some from the outside portray it. It's a debate. The personal attacks come about when trolls get involved...or just rude people.


Exactly...If someone is not open-minded enough to the possibility that they could be wrong and are able to be humble enough to admit it then this is the wrong forum for them.They can always take their differences to another room here and hammer it out.
IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2901. DFWjc
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Hi everyone.. hope everyone is playing nice haha .. Well just checking up and been busy.. hmm a SW drift by Lee.. Thats not good, more time in the water def has a chance to get stronger.. Specially for a slow mover like this one..

Hey i had a thought earlier.. Can we name the next hurricane Shaniqua or something? I feel like if we give hurricanes ghetto names, people will be more inclined to get away from them. Hurricane Irene sounds friendly. Hurricane Shaniqua will rip out your weave if you look at it wrong.. what y'all think?? lol


poof, just for this post only...not going there with the race card again (cocks gun)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Hi everyone.. hope everyone is playing nice haha .. Well just checking up and been busy.. hmm a SW drift by Lee.. Thats not good, more time in the water def has a chance to get stronger.. Specially for a slow mover like this one..

Hey i had a thought earlier.. Can we name the next hurricane Shaniqua or something? I feel like if we give hurricanes ghetto names, people will be more inclined to get away from them. Hurricane Irene sounds friendly. Hurricane Shaniqua will rip out your weave if you look at it wrong.. what y'all think?? lol


lmao!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JGreco:



Oh Lord...here we go..maybe the spaghetti models were right withe the loop-tee-loop-tee-loop scenario:0
why didnt they include no closed circulation found yet in their vortex message under comments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2898. twooks
Quoting JGreco:



Geez it looked like for a moment with the Northwest reorganization that it would come ashore as early as midday Saturday. I guess that is thrown out now:0


Jay Grimes was getting a bit excited about the center reformation on tonight's telecast. Guess he spoke too soon :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Recon confirmed a SW drift, so no.


Closer look.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Now on Monday I spoke of mischief in the western gulf possibly retrograding westward and helping to lower heights and pull Katia farther west too. That was a different situation where we would have a weak area of low pressure moving westward, not north. Once it became clear Lee would be a northern gulf issue and a stronger system, the dynamics there changed. Back on Monday this whole Lee situation was speculation, and thus I was only listing off possibilities.


You really don't have to defend yourself to a troll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2894. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


sometimes those oil rigs amometers are 300 feet in the air


45kt (40kt) reports get rounded down to 40kts (35kts) at the surface if they are at flight-level, and oil rigs are even closer to the ground than flight-level. Those reports support TS force winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2893. ncstorm
the difference with the 00Z and the 18Z runs is that Lee remnants are are more amplified when she gets to NC which would bring Katia more west





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Quoting hunkerdown:
Then you haven't been in college long enough...if you are good at giving supportive reasoning that would provide enough evidence to back it up, your project would be a success. The idea in a situation like that would be to be able to convince your professor, whether right or wrong, not just spit out an answer cause that's what the map/graph shows.


With all due respect, that's only true for writing papers, not scientific material, I know the difference. Maybe you had some really, really easy professors, but that is not how it usually works, at least not for me, or anyone else I know in college.

Otherwise, if you want to believe it, go ahead.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
2890. JGreco
Quoting MississippiWx:


Recon confirmed a SW drift, so no.



Geez it looked like for a moment with the Northwest reorganization that it would come ashore as early as midday Saturday. I guess that is thrown out now:0
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
2889. CCkid00
Quoting JGreco:



Oh Lord...here we go..maybe the spaghetti models were right withe the loop-tee-loop-tee-loop scenario:0

Levi said in one of his tidbits (maybe yesterday) that this could happen....the SSW movement (or a loop).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
And just for the record, numerous buoys/rigs have shown these kind of readings today with 35kt or higher winds. That is tropical storm force.



sometimes those oil rigs amometers are 300 feet in the air
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2887. Levi32
Quoting mcluvincane:


This is true, but It looks like lee will pull Katia more west instead of kicking her out


I don't really think so, unless Lee gets trapped over the southern states and regrogrades back to the southwest as Katia gets to 70W. At this point that is not a solution favored by any model that I see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2937 - 2887

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast