TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3137 - 3087

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

Quoting washingaway:


997mb??
Yeah. Last dropsonde found a surface pressure of 999mb, and since it had winds of 25mph, they took 2mb off (1mb for every 10mph).

000
UZNT13 KNHC 030553
XXAA 53058 99287 70921 08282 99999 26201 02022 00511 ///// /////
92676 22602 05521 85412 19648 01503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80517
61616 AF306 0413A LEE OB 14
62626 SPL 2867N09211W 0520 MBL WND 03023 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03516
998842 WL150 02023 084 SPG 2867N09211W 051908 =
XXBB 53058 99287 70921 08282 00999 26201 11884 20807
21212 00999 02022 11928 05522 22904 04013 33888 02513 44879 04013
55870 02006 66855 01505
31313 09608 80517
61616 AF306 0413A LEE OB 14
62626 SPL 2867N09211W 0520 MBL WND 03023 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03516
998842 WL150 02023 084 SPG 2867N09211W 051908 =
;

What's weird is, if the circulation is under a CDO, aren't strong winds supposed to be present? I mean, if there was a clear eye, then if there are winds at the surface, the dropsonde missed the exact center, but wouldn't that not be the case in a tropical storm with thunderstorm activity above its circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

Did the Madrid quake help in carving all the waterways
of LA? Was the Mississippi more or less one channel before that?


The New Madrid Seismic Zone, along the Mississippi River near New Madrid, Missouri, between Memphis and St. Louis, is related to an aulacogen (failed rift) that formed at the same time as the Gulf of Mexico. This area is still quite active seismically. Four great earthquakes in 1811 and 1812, estimated at approximately 8 on the Richter magnitude scale, had tremendous local effects in the then sparsely settled area, and were felt in many other places in the midwestern and eastern U.S. These earthquakes created Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee from the altered landscape near the river, and temporarily reversed the direction of flow of the Mississippi itself.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


If you're referring to the symbol representing Katia --- I wouldn't consult that for storm center fixes. Seems someone just goes in with a graphic editor and just pastes the image where they think it belongs more than anything.

Katia continues to lift northward as she heads west. Doing a couple of curley cue like wobbles along the way ala Irene.


Logical...sounds like something I would do to get attention......if I lived in Wisc. (lol)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


997mb??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


There is also a Vermillion snapper and a Vermillion Flycatcher. Large schools of redfish can make the water appear to have a redish hue.....but I think Orca is on the right track.

The off-colored water from a river running into the ocean was used by early explorers to find waterways that allowed exploration into the interior.

Did the Madrid quake help in carving all the waterways
of LA? Was the Mississippi more or less one channel before that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Pressure is down a little from earlier I believe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I have been wish-casting Lee to come our way for days now. No dice yet though.


yeah....that high just won't leave us alone. It has got to give sometime and hopefully there will be something there to help when it does.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can we expect a new update from Dr. Master's tonight or will that be in the morning?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3128. Remek
Quoting JLPR2:
Katia better fire up soon or it'll loose its hurricane status.


I'm all for that. The less powerful the better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3127. JLPR2
Dry air getting ready for an invasion from the south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the rain is coming down by the buckets right now.......... twxans can take all they want.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I hear ya....we definitely could use it.


I have been wish-casting Lee to come our way for days now. No dice yet though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:



I wish we could get a sw jog out of Lee..

I know LA doesn't want all of that rain. We sure could use it though.


I hear ya....we definitely could use it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:


Texas actually began as a suburb of Louisiana. Today's Houston ship channel was settled to compete with the Mighty Mississippi.

It's just climate that made Louisianans and Texans so culturally different... we both had to move our Capitols north so the politicians could escape the skeeters.


There is also a Vermillion snapper and a Vermillion Flycatcher. Large schools of redfish can make the water appear to have a redish hue.....but I think Orca is on the right track.

The off-colored water from a river running into the ocean was used by early explorers to find waterways that allowed exploration into the interior.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Info re: drilling rig evac's

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3121. Seawall
Quoting sarahjola:
hey pat! can you tell me if lee is about to come inland? i have been off all night can you please fill me in? its been steady raining out here


Why not just go to your local news, or pull up Wunderground radar for your location? It would be easy enough to see if Lee was/is/going/maybe move inland? I guess it's just me, but I wouldn't depend on any single individual from here to answer a question like that. If you're here already, then you most likely already know the answer to your question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


lol...ok , I see it. :)



I wish we could get a sw jog out of Lee..

I know LA doesn't want all of that rain. We sure could use it though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Could be...


Texas actually began as a suburb of Louisiana. Today's Houston ship channel was settled to compete with the Mighty Mississippi.

It's just climate that made Louisianans and Texans so culturally different... we both had to move our Capitols north so the politicians could escape the skeeters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


I believe he was referring to Katia...


lol...ok , I see it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


maybe it is just me. I don't notice it.


I believe he was referring to Katia...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3113. scott39
If the NHC dont slow Lee down in forward motion on the 2. It may on the next one. It looks like Lee is stationary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kowaliga:
Sssup 3rd shift!

Interesting...notice trof is lifting out and the little SW jog at the end...



maybe it is just me. I don't notice it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3111. Patrap
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


12 Hours. Hostile environment but doing a decent job maintaining in the face of it all this time.

Notice how she is curley cueing her way forward much how Irene had quite frequently done. What appears to be a westward bend, perhaps even sw, then a stall, then a northward jump, followed by a resumption of NW or WNW motion ---- is really nothing more than a special wobble that seems to find itself on an overall general heading of WNW/NW (much like Irene).



It would appear she is about to start the whole wobble process over again.


So your saying she's heading due west with an occasional jog to the west. yeah I can see that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3109. Patrap
Tropical Storm LEE Public Advisory
www.nhc.noaa.gov

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030323
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN SUMMARY SECTION

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND
GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW
ORLEANS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 1000 MB...29.53
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3108. scott39
There is one little lone thunderstorm in the middle of lees COC. He aint moved much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3106. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At least the blog is giving me a few laughs tonight, LOL. Nothing else to do at 1:30a.m.

Pretty obvious why ADT has Katia as such an intense hurricane...they have the circulation in the wrong location.


Yeah, convection is waning too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
does anyone have the latest center fix on Lee?

i wish so bad that he could get that convection wrapped around his west side
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3104. jonelu
Quoting JLPR2:
Katia better fire up soon or it'll loose its hurricane status.
wouldnt be the first time. Weaker system might mean more WEST...no bueno.. NC and NE cant handle another hit so soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey pat! can you tell me if lee is about to come inland? i have been off all night can you please fill me in? its been steady raining out here
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1293
Quoting DFWjc:


looks like a baby with it's umbilical cord wrapping around...


IS it a boy or is that a tail I see? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least the blog is giving me a few laughs tonight, LOL. Nothing else to do at 1:30a.m.

Quoting JLPR2:
This:

Reached this:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 979.2mb/ 79.6kt

O.o
Pretty obvious why ADT has Katia as such an intense hurricane...they have the circulation in the wrong location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3100. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Katia better fire up soon or it'll loose its hurricane status.


Any new stats on her?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3098. JLPR2
Katia better fire up soon or it'll loose its hurricane status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3097. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
I do believe TS Gen Lee is Flipping us all off.



or she wants to be milked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


That's a good question.. I had never thought of that before.


Historical Background

Legend has it that the Bayou Vermilion was named after the red color of the water, the result of floodwaters from the Red River.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3095. Patrap
Lotsa rotating cells a coming in this next Batch inbound.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


That's a good question.. I had never thought of that before.


I tried to look it up but did not find anything on the origin of the name. It did say that the Vermillion river will at times reverse it's flow in heavy rain events. That is interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

I wonder if Vermillion Bay is named for the red tide algae we get here in TX also. Back in the day (1700s) when colonization was catching on, coastal features were named for their characteristics for easy ID if you were sailing in.


That's a good question.. I had never thought of that before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3092. Patrap
Quoting redwagon:

I wonder if Vermillion Bay is named for the red tide algae we get here in TX also. Back in the day (1700s) when colonization was catching on, coastal features were named for their characteristics for easy ID if you were sailing in.


Could be...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


thank you taz, Father Orca already warned us...


Just trying to break up the monotony, everyone was getting so touchy and grumpy there for a little while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Cindy 2005 July5/6


I wonder if Vermillion Bay is named for the red tide algae we get here in TX also. Back in the day (1700s) when colonization was catching on, coastal features were named for their characteristics for easy ID if you were sailing in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sssup 3rd shift!

Interesting...notice trof is lifting out and the little SW jog at the end...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3088. Patrap
I do believe TS Gen Lee is Flipping us all off.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3087. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:



you no if you keep posting thing like that your going too in up geting ban


so if you want too get a 24hr ban then go a head and keep posting that the admin druning storm mode on the blogs will and could ban any one posting off topic and dos not haveing any thing too do with this blog



so if you keep posting off topic photos on this blog that dos not have any thing too do with the weather then you could get a 24 hr ban for posting off topic



this giveing you a warning



good night


thank you taz, Father Orca already warned us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3137 - 3087

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 °F
Overcast