TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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3187. Patrap
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I'm so jealous.


Your Time is Gonna Come

Led Zep 1
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
3186. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 119 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting Patrap:


I'm so jealous.
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3184. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting CajunTexan:


Thanks, Idaho!! My feeelings were starting to hurt... I didn't know if anyone remembered/appreciated the poems I used to do on here... Lol


Just as long as it does not start out.. There once was a man from Nantucket...lol
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Quoting CCkid00:

am i seeing this right....that dry air seems to have at first pushed the storm east, but then forced it back west????


No, it's not the dry air steering it.

Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
Quoting CCkid00:
10 miles East of Baton Rouge here........rains have ramped up and winds are gusting significantly stronger than an hour ago.....running 16-18, with gusts up to 25 or so.


Same here, it seemed to be quite sudden. I hope this is the worst it gets, but somehow I seriously doubt it!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Take the wife and kids to the in-laws, stock-up on slim jims and beer go back to the trailer and chain yourself up......time for a poem!


Thanks, Idaho!! My feeelings were starting to hurt... I didn't know if anyone remembered/appreciated the poems I used to do on here... Lol
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If that CMC Ensemble is anywhere close being moderately accurate, the East Coast will be filled with a plethora of happy surfers. That's a few weeks of solid swell beginning with Katia in a couple of days.
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Quoting redwagon:

Well, actually the REAL reason I ask is that I've been staring at LA watching Lee do nothing for three days straight and I thought I'd ask the locals about their geography. Kills time between NHC updates, and locals know more than the 'books'.


I thought maybe you were watching Jeopardy or something...lol
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3177. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ive noticed the NHC always overdoes the wind fields, the New Jersey coast was not getting 75 mph sustained winds from Irene. And, there aren't tropical storm force winds anywhere in Louisiana right now, lol.


New Orleans getting tropical storm force winds? That wind field map is just a wee bit off, shall I say?


That's been my train of thought for many years, the area is always too big, I don't know why it should be so. When Irene was approaching CT they had TS there, but the max winds I could find were 34 mph.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I don't know that the Sabine rives was formed due to an earthquake. IT has been in existence since at least 12k years ago. The Caddo People were it's first inhabitants in the 8th Century. TEXAS HISTORY, 7th GRADE!! I can not believe I remember that!

Well, actually the REAL reason I ask is that I've been staring at LA watching Lee do nothing for three days straight and I thought I'd ask the locals about their geography. Kills time between NHC updates, and locals know more than the 'books'.
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Quoting CajunTexan:
I think its time for a poem... Its been a long time since I've given you good folks a nice poem for the blog... Who thinks its time for a poem???


Take the wife and kids to the in-laws, stock-up on slim jims and beer go back to the trailer and chain yourself up......time for a poem!
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:



awwww, I love my in-laws :o)


You lucky girl... Nah, mine aren't THAT bad... They used to be... But they've really come around, in terms of accepting me as their son in law, in the last 6 months or so... I have to admit, I've been taken back by their hospitality lately... Even my wife has been shocked - lol
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Quoting vince1:
That New Madrid fault line is another one that could shake big at any time. It would be totally disastrous now with how inhabited the area is.

You are also forgetting the Cascadia fault off the coast of Seattle, Portland and Vancouver.
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3172. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CajunTexan:
It should be noted, I hate my in-laws :-)


Better than ridin a twister in the trailer..

Lee's ADT~ Curved Band trying to fight it's way out of the shear scene again..

2011SEP03 011500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.64 -13.43 SHEAR N/A 27.68 91.62 FCST
2011SEP03 014500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.94 -13.41 SHEAR N/A 27.71 91.63 FCST
2011SEP03 021500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.34 -12.48 SHEAR N/A 27.73 91.64 FCST
2011SEP03 024500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.34 -12.25 SHEAR N/A 27.75 91.65 FCST
2011SEP03 031500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF 4.14 -25.97 CRVBND N/A 28.21 91.60 FCST
2011SEP03 034500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 9.44 -26.01 SHEAR N/A 28.23 91.60 FCST
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Quoting CajunTexan:


I'd almost prefer to chain myself to the large tree in my front yard and double dare Lee to "bring it on", but I'm trying to think about my family, instead of myself :-)



awwww, I love my in-laws :o)
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I think its time for a poem... Its been a long time since I've given you good folks a nice poem for the blog... Who thinks its time for a poem???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

The reason I ask is that the Red River could have been
instrumental in forming the Vermillion river and Bay. But it'd have to cross the Sabine... was the Sabine seismically formed?


I don't know that the Sabine rives was formed due to an earthquake. IT has been in existence since at least 12k years ago. The Caddo People were it's first inhabitants in the 8th Century. TEXAS HISTORY, 7th GRADE!! I can not believe I remember that!
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Quoting CajunTexan:
It should be noted, I hate my in-laws :-)


I'd almost prefer to chain myself to the large tree in my front yard and double dare Lee to "bring it on", but I'm trying to think about my family, instead of myself :-)
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3167. Skyepony (Mod)
Lee TRMM pass, click for animation..lotta rain.
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3166. CCkid00
10 miles East of Baton Rouge here........rains have ramped up and winds are gusting significantly stronger than an hour ago.....running 16-18, with gusts up to 25 or so.
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It should be noted, I hate my in-laws :-)
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3164. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°40'N 92°06'W (28.6667N 92.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) to the S (182°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 45kts (From the ENE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (143°) from the flight level center
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Quoting bigwes6844:
tornado Warning for Lafourche Parish. Thats number 4 tonight


I like old maps telling me the different parishes instead of Google :)
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New Iberia, La here.... Heavy rains with light winds (10 mph, I would guess?) for the past couple of hours... Occasional gust to probably 20 mph.... More worried about the flooding and tornado threat (We live in a trailer house 75 ft from the bayou) than anything... Thinking of taking the wife and kids to stay with my in-laws tomorrow night.... Broussard won't be much better in terms of weather conditions, but at least its a brick home... Just in case....
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3161. CCkid00
Quoting washingaway:

am i seeing this right....that dry air seems to have at first pushed the storm east, but then forced it back west????
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Quoting redwagon:

The reason I ask is that the Red River could have been
instrumental in forming the Vermillion river and Bay. But it'd have to cross the Sabine... was the Sabine seismically formed?


Don't really know. Seismic activity is not a common way to form rivers. But they can change course a lot over time.

I could go google it but then...You could go google it...lol!
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I hope this don't scare anyone. Long ways off.
CMC Ensemble 192hrs.



CMC Ensemble 338hrs.


CMC Ensemble 360hrs.


CMC Ensemble 372hrs.


CMC Ensemble 380hrs.
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Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
3156. vince1
That New Madrid fault line is another one that could shake big at any time. It would be totally disastrous now with how inhabited the area is.
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tornado Warning for Lafourche Parish. Thats number 4 tonight
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I'll give ya props! WAY TO GO!!
...Idaho!
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3mb drop in three hours. Surprising with all that dry air.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


No, the Mississippi river has changed course many times. There are some maps that show were scientists think the river channel was and what part of the delta was built at different times in history. It is typical for a river to develop a "birds foot" when it nears the coast. The Nile and Amazon have similiar features.

That said, parts of the river changed course up north and a lake....Reelfoot lake? can't remember, was formed when an oxbow was cut off as a result of the quake.

The reason I ask is that the Red River could have been
instrumental in forming the Vermillion river and Bay. But it'd have to cross the Sabine... was the Sabine seismically formed?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Hey I did pretty good considering I took Ecology of The Mississippi River Delta at UNO in 1989.


I'll give ya props! WAY TO GO!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm Still here. Have have you finished your dehydrated water yet?


Nope, saving it for a rainy day...lol
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Quoting JLPR2:
Dry air getting ready for an invasion from the south.

the weaker Katia stays the more west she will go.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Gotta love Google!


Hey I did pretty good considering I took Ecology of The Mississippi River Delta at UNO in 1989.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
it seems to have gotten quiet in here all of a sudden. Did everyone (except those in TX) float away?

I'm Still here. Have have you finished your dehydrated water yet?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Cheater!

;^)


Gotta love Google!
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


The New Madrid Seismic Zone, along the Mississippi River near New Madrid, Missouri, between Memphis and St. Louis, is related to an aulacogen (failed rift) that formed at the same time as the Gulf of Mexico. This area is still quite active seismically. Four great earthquakes in 1811 and 1812, estimated at approximately 8 on the Richter magnitude scale, had tremendous local effects in the then sparsely settled area, and were felt in many other places in the midwestern and eastern U.S. These earthquakes created Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee from the altered landscape near the river, and temporarily reversed the direction of flow of the Mississippi itself.



Cheater!

;^)
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Night all. check in tomorrow.


Nighty night
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3143. twooks
Kinda asked this earlier, but never really got a response. How much longer should we reasonably expect the ULL to affect it?
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it seems to have gotten quiet in here all of a sudden. Did everyone (except those in TX) float away?
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Night all. check in tomorrow.
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Here is the map I was referring to.

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


No, the Mississippi river has changed course many times. There are some maps that show were scientists think the river channel was and what part of the delta was built at different times in history. It is typical for a river to develop a "birds foot" when it nears the coast. The Nile and Amazon have similiar features.

That said, parts of the river changed course up north and a lake....Reelfoot lake? can't remember, was formed when an oxbow was cut off as a result of the quake.


Reelfoot Lake in TN.
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Quoting redwagon:

Did the Madrid quake help in carving all the waterways
of LA? Was the Mississippi more or less one channel before that?


No, the Mississippi river has changed course many times. There are some maps that show were scientists think the river channel was and what part of the delta was built at different times in history. It is typical for a river to develop a "birds foot" when it nears the coast. The Nile and Amazon have similiar features.

That said, parts of the river changed course up north and a lake....Reelfoot lake? can't remember, was formed when an oxbow was cut off as a result of the quake.
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Quoting washingaway:


997mb??
Yeah. Last dropsonde found a surface pressure of 999mb, and since it had winds of 25mph, they took 2mb off (1mb for every 10mph).

000
UZNT13 KNHC 030553
XXAA 53058 99287 70921 08282 99999 26201 02022 00511 ///// /////
92676 22602 05521 85412 19648 01503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80517
61616 AF306 0413A LEE OB 14
62626 SPL 2867N09211W 0520 MBL WND 03023 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03516
998842 WL150 02023 084 SPG 2867N09211W 051908 =
XXBB 53058 99287 70921 08282 00999 26201 11884 20807
21212 00999 02022 11928 05522 22904 04013 33888 02513 44879 04013
55870 02006 66855 01505
31313 09608 80517
61616 AF306 0413A LEE OB 14
62626 SPL 2867N09211W 0520 MBL WND 03023 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03516
998842 WL150 02023 084 SPG 2867N09211W 051908 =
;

What's weird is, if the circulation is under a CDO, aren't strong winds supposed to be present? I mean, if there was a clear eye, then if there are winds at the surface, the dropsonde missed the exact center, but wouldn't that not be the case in a tropical storm with thunderstorm activity above its circulation?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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