TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Quite the shift east on the 00z ECMWF with Katia. Has it recurving out to sea before reaching 70%u02DAW. No westward motion is indicated, just a smooth recurvature around the subtropical ridge's periphery.


The most likely scenario for Katia is still recurvature. Always has been.
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Quoting mojofearless:


Earhart and Broad in the old American Beauty warehouse. But on the bright side, I have a really big gumbo pot that's proving multifunctional.
HaHa...that's just a cajun catch all. Just don't cook with that water. ;)
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Quoting redwagon:

Don't let him. Lee is tightening up and with that means
more tornado risk.


It's not like he can say no and lose his job. Why do companies put their workers in danger?
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Know what ya mean. Mine's just leaving for work.. gotta be there for 3:30. Don't like anyone driving around in this!


No! It's just flat out dangerous! I don't think that anyone needs to be going anywhere unless they absolutely have to, such as those that work with emergency or law enforcement (even then, I hate the idea of those poor folks in danger).

I hope your husband stays safe!
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Waves of squalls here in Terrebonne parish, tornado warnings. It was bad enough to wake us up. I hope everyone in the region is faring well.
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Oh no...wind picking up again considerably. Just south of N.O. on westbank. Hold on Pat!
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Quoting midgulfmom:
:( Where yat?


Earhart and Broad in the old American Beauty warehouse. But on the bright side, I have a really big gumbo pot that's proving multifunctional.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
There is no way I am letting my husband drive down to the Marathon plant to work in this. He has to leave at 4:30 am. and it's about an hour or so drive in this mess.

Don't let him. Lee is tightening up and with that means
more tornado risk.
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Quite the shift east on the 00z ECMWF with Katia. Has it recurving out to sea before reaching 70W. No westward motion is indicated, just a smooth recurvature around the subtropical ridge's periphery.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
There is no way I am letting my husband drive down to the Marathon plant to work in this. He has to leave at 4:30 am. and it's about an hour or so drive in this mess.
Know what ya mean. Mine's just leaving for work.. gotta be there for 3:30. Don't like anyone driving around in this!
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Quoting GPTGUY:
My weather station measured 3.31" yesterday and since midnight 1.25" and raining heavily winds gusting over 30 mph north of I-10 in Gulfport.


My station measured 5.70" yesterday and 1.68 since midnight. Heavy Rain, winds gusts over 35 mph South of I-10 - 1 mile from the beach in Waveland.
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3276. Patrap
Quoting mojofearless:
Our kitchen is leaking here at the art studio. Ugh.


Not good,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
There is no way I am letting my husband drive down to the Marathon plant to work in this. He has to leave at 4:30 am. and it's about an hour or so drive in this mess.
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3274. GBguy88
Just had some nice storms roll through on Pensacola Beach...sustained around 20-25 and gusting to mid 30's briefly, along with very heavy rain. A bit surprised at the wind, given how far away the center is.
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Quoting mojofearless:
Our kitchen is leaking here at the art studio. Ugh.
:( Where yat?
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3272. Patrap
Quoting JNCali:

Headin to bed in Cali.. prayers are with you all in LA, be safe this morning!


Thanx JN,,sleep well
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
3271. Patrap
Quoting midgulfmom:
Suddenly quiet. In a lull....


we in between bands, the next one is a coming within the Hour.

Down by Lafitte



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
3270. JNCali

Quoting midgulfmom:
Suddenly quiet. In a lull....
Headin to bed in Cali.. prayers are with you all in LA, be safe this morning!
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Our kitchen is leaking here at the art studio. Ugh.
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Suddenly quiet. In a lull....
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3267. Patrap
I hope them QPF totals were off yesterday,,cuz we gonna be in this flow another 24-36 maybe.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
3266. GPTGUY
My weather station measured 3.31" yesterday and since midnight 1.25" and raining heavily winds gusting over 30 mph north of I-10 in Gulfport.
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3265. Patrap
Quoting midgulfmom:
It's rockin and rollin down here on the Westbank, south of N.O. Gusts are up and driving rain. Feeder coming through I guess. Can't sleep in this weather. Cindy in July '05 was worse...so far. Oh, it suddenly got colder in my house... Downdraft maybe?



feeder Bands Uptown too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting Patrap:
Gusts to 45 here last 10min

Lee just got a pretty good haircut of his southern energy so I'd expect a coriolis spinup, pretty soon?
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It's rockin and rollin down here on the Westbank, south of N.O. Gusts are up and driving rain. Feeder coming through I guess. Can't sleep in this weather. Cindy in July '05 was worse...so far. Oh, it suddenly got colder in my house... Downdraft maybe?
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3262. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
3261. Patrap
256
WFUS54 KLIX 030723
TORLIX
LAC005-033-047-121-030745-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0082.110903T0723Z-110903T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
223 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...
SOUTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OAK HILLS PLACE...
CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PLAQUEMINE...
SOUTHERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
PRAIRIEVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GONZALES...MOVING WEST AT 55
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CARVILLE...GARDERE...BRUSLY AND ADDIS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3026 9146 3046 9141 3034 9089 3017 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 102DEG 49KT 3028 9101



95/DM

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
I think we are under tornado watches now in Livingston Parish, as well as BR and others.

Thanks for the info.
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3259. Patrap
Another Up tick on that western convective cell in the New Frame.

Lee is winning seems.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
3258. Patrap
281
WFUS54 KLIX 030716
TORLIX
LAC057-030745-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0081.110903T0716Z-110903T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
216 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAROSE...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GALLIANO...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MATHEWS AND LOCKPORT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 2969 9063 2979 9046 2977 9038 2974 9036
2971 9036 2969 9032 2944 9013 2933 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 144DEG 30KT 2946 9028



95/DM

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Yeah i'm more in South Central LA i know i say SW LA but i'm only about 20 miles or so west of Lafayette so it will be close..looks to come onshore in about 12 to 15 hours so if it will organize it has to do its work now


Judging solely by radar, I think it will come ashore between Morgan City and Lafayette.

However, I will need more time to assess this.
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I hope this thing does not organize further. Fall apart!
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3255. Patrap
Gusts to 45 here last 10min
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Kori, what's your guess on what we should expect around the BR area?

It seems this storm is so unpredictable.


Well, I'm currently in the process of doing a late night blog update on it, but were I to hazard a guess, the advent of tropical storm force (sustained) winds should not occur until Saturday evening, as the center moves ashore. However, gusts to tropical storm force could begin as early as sunrise this morning.

In any case, tropical storm force conditions, with possible hurricane force gusts, are possible in our area if it strengthens a bit more and doesn't come too far west.

Isolated tornadoes will also be possible; doppler radar has been indicating that some of the storms embedded within these bands are staring to rotate. Baton Rouge is not currently under a tornado watch, but this will likely need to be reassessed as we head into tomorrow.

Lastly, I think we will see prodigious rains from this. Fortunately, the ground is rather dry in our area, which will alleviate the otherwise severe flood potential.
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Tornado Warning for Central Lafourche Parish thats 6 already
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TS.Lee's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 2Sept_6amGMT and ending 3Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormLee's path
and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Lee's travel-speed was 6.5mph(10.5k/h) on a heading of 332.1degrees(NNW)
TS.Lee was headed toward passage over PecanIsland,Louisiana ~11hours from now

Copy&paste gls, 26.8n91.5w-27.2n91.4w, 27.2n91.4w-27.4n91.5w, 27.4n91.5w-28.0n91.5w, 28.0n91.5w-28.5n91.8w, lch, 28.0n91.5w-29.55n92.44w, ara, hum into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 3Sept_12amGMT)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah, I didn't realize you were that close. In that case yeah, a landfall there is possible. We will see.


Yeah i'm more in South Central LA i know i say SW LA but i'm only about 20 miles or so west of Lafayette so it will be close..looks to come onshore in about 12 to 15 hours so if it will organize it has to do its work now
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


If the Center comes closer to me that could still give me gusts in excess of 75 to 80mph
Biloxi, Ms. Local tv station reported wind gust of 51mph within the last half hour
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Kori, what's your guess on what we should expect around the BR area?

It seems this storm is so unpredictable.

Ooops, I see you already answered that, lol.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


I'm closer to Lafayette, the storm is now west of its 1AM forecast point the track will most likely be slid a little further west probably coming ashore somewhere near Lafayette


Ah, I didn't realize you were that close. In that case yeah, a landfall there is possible. We will see.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Wondering what the rainfall amounts will really end up being and any sort of winds and power issues. Isn't this supposed to stay over us for a few days, or move slowly?


Well, with the more northward relocation of the center, it will feel the trough a bit quicker, and thus make it to the coast faster.

However, steering will continue to be rather weak, so we will likely have tropical storm conditions in the Baton Rouge metro area until late Sunday night, possibly a little longer.

I don't know if you watch Jay Grimes' forecasts, but he is one of my favorites. He was predicting 10 or more inches of rain for BR and surrounding areas, and I personally think he is right.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. I don't see the center coming ashore in western Louisiana, but you should definitely still feel tropical storm force winds.

Of course, given the enigmatic and unpredictable nature of Lee thus far, expect anything. lol


I'm closer to Lafayette, the storm is now west of its 1AM forecast point the track will most likely be slid a little further west probably coming ashore somewhere near Lafayette
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Link

This is what i'm currently looking at...Notice that the rainband detaching from the main complex trying to dig SW, then S trying to wrap around the COC it almost looks like it has succeed and if thats the case then the COC will be protected for the most part from the dry air...its definitely trying
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3244. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting louisianaboy444:


If the Center comes closer to me that could still give me gusts in excess of 75 to 80mph


I dunno. I don't see the center coming ashore in western Louisiana, but you should definitely still feel tropical storm force winds.

Of course, given the enigmatic and unpredictable nature of Lee thus far, expect anything. lol
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3242. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Why is that?


Wondering what the rainfall amounts will really end up being and any sort of winds and power issues. Isn't this supposed to stay over us for a few days, or move slowly?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


I think 60mph at landfall...you?


That cut-off high (lol) from TX is sure delivering a body blow to Lee. And the hot dry air to the North is trapping him.
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i think we just had the worse rain band yet........
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That has been my forecast all day.


If the Center comes closer to me that could still give me gusts in excess of 75 to 80mph
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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