TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3387 - 3337

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISHES...

AT 506 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHALMETTE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
ORLEANS...LAKEFRONT AIRPORT AND METAIRIE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Me either.

I need to sleep but kind of worried being right under a tornado warning.


I can't remember ever seeing this many tornado warnings at one time, especially for a storm they said was moving very slow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Hard to keep track...are you sure there aren't more?
make that 7 atone time now. we just got another one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Hi neighbor! I am sitting here in Denham watching this mess.

Hey there! I just made a good ole pot of Community coffee, just in case we lose power!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sassy2002:
Here in Holden it's been off & on rain all night long but, a few minutes ago, it got awfully quiet! I don't like that!


Me either.

I need to sleep but kind of worried being right under a tornado warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tornado Warning(s)

all or portions of the following counties,
In Louisiana: East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, Jefferson, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stay safe everyone that is being affected by Lee.

I am going to try to get some sleep, it's been over 24 hrs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in Holden it's been off & on rain all night long but, a few minutes ago, it got awfully quiet! I don't like that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sassy2002:


I'm more than happy to share with you...I'm in Livingston parish...Holden! It's been pretty hairy tonight.


Hi neighbor! I am sitting here in Denham watching this mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another tornado warning for Orleans/New Orleans/Metairie/Kenner/Harvey/Belle Chase/Chalmette til 5:45 am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water Vapor imagery shows that mass of dry air being drawn into Lee seriously shrinking in size. Looks like it's trying to get some convection wrapped around the CoC as well. Don't expect a whole lot of strengthening in it's future, but it's definately looking better despite the close proximity to shore, and the dry air it's been dealing with...

Stay safe LA!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
another tornado warning for jefferson. We now have 6 tornado warnings at one time now in effect.


Hard to keep track...are you sure there aren't more?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
tornado warning for st. tammany and orleans. that close to me now


I'm more than happy to share with you...I'm in Livingston parish...Holden! It's been pretty hairy tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There are many areas being affected by this system, not just NOLA, lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
another tornado warning for jefferson. We now have 6 tornado warnings at one time now in effect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Up temporarily (darned cats playing on the bed). Wow that was a major Katia track change since the 5pm track from yesterday.

Stay safe NOLA folks. Looks like it's going to be a rough day or two with Lee and its tornadoes/rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wish this thing would just go ahead and spin up and move on out of here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tornado Warning(s)
all or portions of the following counties,
In Louisiana: Jefferson, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I hear ya .. But tell/give a call to mother nature about that.. lol But anyways, it is what it is and can't do anything about it.. But hopefully nothing happens but looks like im about to get hit by nice band coming into the panhandle of FL.. and its looking nice but seems im not going to get that much sleep and of course I have to work Saturday evening.. blah.. Well good luck to everyone and be safe..

Im going to try to get sum shut eye if i can..


It's so sad that Texas is under such drought and can't seem to catch anything!

Be careful!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lots of spinners popping up and their moving fast


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Here r bunch of models and future cast of what could happen.. Hope no1 minds.. This last one the GFSX is pretty interesting and has maybe another system in the GOMEX.. But anyways eyes r on Lee then Katia..

I saw something in the Gulf on a model earlier. I wanted to ignore it, lol! No more storms in the Gulf, please.


I hear ya .. But tell/give a call to mother nature about that.. lol But anyways, it is what it is and can't do anything about it.. But hopefully nothing happens but looks like im about to get hit by nice band coming into the panhandle of FL.. and its looking nice but seems im not going to get that much sleep and of course I have to work Saturday evening.. blah.. Well good luck to everyone and be safe..

Im going to try to get sum shut eye if i can..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep, this is nerve-racking with the warnings. I am waiting to go to sleep when I find out he made it to work okay, driving through a couple of the bad areas.

Here I am sitting by a window, lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
another warning for jefferson parish! what the hell!! thats 15 warning all in one day so far
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tornado Warning(s)
all or portions of the following counties,
In Louisiana: Livingston, Orleans, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tangiphoa, st john the baphtist and now linvingston parish. This is getting ridiculous. thats 5 tornado warnings in 5 mins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
YSCLOSKEY...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VIOLET
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3358. vince1
dupe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCHATOULA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANDEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPRINGFIELD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3355. vince1
Interesting timing with this shameless display: Southern Decadence

I'll say no more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So many tornado warnings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EDEN ISLE...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 412 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CATHERINE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDEN ISLE...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LACOMBE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tornado warning for st. tammany and orleans. that close to me now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF RESERVE...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 335 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR EDGARD...OR
NEAR RESERVE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GARYVILLE...GRAMERCY...LUTCHER...WHITEHALL...SORRE NTO AND GEISMER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3349. vince1
Looks like GFSX sends the next GOM disturbance on a more northeastward direction through the FL panhandle...while TX burns. >-(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

WILL KEEP IT SHORT THIS MORNING. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND SOME TS ACTIVITY MIXED IN. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES AS AN AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GREATER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE SHOWING UP IN
ST.TAMMANY...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... AND PLAQUEMINES.

ISOLATED AREAS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE FOUND IN TERREBONNE PARISH. EXPECTE THESE TALLIES TO BE A LOT HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FLOODING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY WHEN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER AN AREA. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIME FOR THESE FEATURES AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN TUESDAY AND BRINGS US SOME VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS BY MID-WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here r bunch of models and future cast of what could happen.. Hope no1 minds.. This last one the GFSX is pretty interesting and has maybe another system in the GOMEX.. But anyways eyes r on Lee then Katia..

I saw something in the Gulf on a model earlier. I wanted to ignore it, lol! No more storms in the Gulf, please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:












Here r bunch of models and future cast of what could happen.. Hope no1 minds.. This last one the GFSX is pretty interesting and has maybe another system in the GOMEX.. But anyways eyes r on Lee then Katia..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that we should all go out drinking heaviley in TX and use our bodily requirements with a strong fan behind us to help water the state since we can't seem to get a drop on the ground.........party in TX............lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

I'm worried for LA. I'm jealous as a Texan, this storm should be ours!

Nite nite, louisianans, but y'all stay up as the twisters might get worse as Lee's energy compresses upon
landfall (two days early!)


Thanks.

I do wish that Texas would get some of this rainfall. I know its needed badly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We can';t control what is to come, only make smart decisions on what we gain knowledge from. But thank you and be safe. All in this region need to keep an eye to the sky and our feet to dry ground. Not my region for my life but deployed to this region once again to try and help the needed God speed to all in this region
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Ugh and that is where he has has to drive through on the way to the Garyville area shortly.

You better be safe too!



He'll be fine. Right now, these bands aren't overly impressive -- we deal with stronger storms during severe weather events in winter.

I'll be safe. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't worry. :)

I'm worried for LA. I'm jealous as a Texan, this storm should be ours!

Nite nite, louisianans, but y'all stay up as the twisters might get worse as Lee's energy compresses upon
landfall (two days early!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm in the thick of it now. Gusts are probably still below tropical storm force, I'd say 30 to 35 mph. But this is definitely the worst I've seen here.


Ugh and that is where he has has to drive through on the way to the Garyville area shortly.

You better be safe too!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nodramaman1022:


In Morgan City right now, winds 40+ rain in sheets, the worst is yet to come, flooding is going to be the big issue here right now, power flickering every 25 min or so


I hear ya mane.. hopefully ur power will stay on and wont have power issues and all.. Just stay safe and the rest of us on the gulf coast here.. Some reason I have a feeling that Lee might have a trick up its sleeve..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3387 - 3337

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.