Irene's rains heaviest on record in Vermont; Tropical Storm Katia forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

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Record flooding continues in the Northeast from Irene's torrential rains. Hardest hit was Vermont, where heavy rains in the weeks prior to Irene's arrival had left soils in the top 20% for moisture, historically. Irene dumped 5 - 8 inches of rain over large sections of Vermont, with a peak of 11.23" at Mendo. The reading from Mendo was the greatest single-day rainfall in Vermont's history, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, beating the 9.92" that fell at Mt. Mansfield on 9/17/1999 during the passage of Tropical Storm Floyd. The 13.30" that fell on East Durham, NY during Irene was just shy of New York State's all-time 1-day rainfall record: 13.70" at Brewster on 9/16/1999, from Tropical Storm Floyd.


Figure 1. Wunderphotographer 43BJAGER recorded this image of a house in Sharon, Vermont, that started out the week on the other side of this underpass.

According to the final Hurricane Irene summary from the NWS, the storm dropped 20" of rain in two locations, one in North Carolina and one in Virginia. Here are the highest rain amounts from the hurricane for each state:

Virginia Beach, VA: 20.40"
Jacksonville, NC: 20.00"
East Durham, NY: 13.30"
Freehold Twp, NJ: 11.27"
Mendon, VT: 11.23"
Ellendale, DE: 10.43"
New Hartford, CT 10.15"
Baxter St. Park, ME: 9.91"
Savoy, MA: 9.10"
Lafayette, PA: 8.82"
Pinkham North, NH: 7.33"
Warren, RI: 5.37"

Tropical Storm Katia forms
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Katia will be in a moist, low wind shear environment with ocean temperature 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed to support a hurricane, and should be able to intensify to major hurricane strength when it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands 5 - 6 days from now. It is possible that some of the outer spiral bands of the storm might bring heavy rain squalls to the northern Lesser Antilles, but it would be a surprise if the core of the storm passed through the islands. The long term fate of Katia is unknown. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 19% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 16% chance of hitting Canada, an 11% chance of hitting Florida, and a 47% chance of never hitting land.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast.

Katia is the 11th named storm this year, and comes a full twelve days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 25 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Katia's formation date of August 30 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 11th storm.

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteer Thomas Hudson clears a driveway yesterday in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday discussing if the evacuations and media hype surrounding Irene were excessive.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaneGurl:


Interesting, does that mean "somethin's comin" again? Last time I saw that happening was back in '79 just before David. Lots of crabs moving ... We lived in Jensen Beach at the time and had to keep swerving to avoid squishing them on A1A.


You were driving in the water?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
2414. scott39
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Most of the models show it manifesting along the Texas or Louisiana coastline so i am pretty confident with that...Texas and Louisiana should start preparing for a heavy rain event because if it hovers around our coasts then a major flood event could be in the making
The stronger the AOI is, the more it will be drawn to the NE, because of the weakness caused by the trough. It may have time to sneak into Texas before the dreaded death ridge comes back. IMHO
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Messing with my weekend plans, for sure!

Quoting Chicklit:


a tropical system meandering in the central GOM this time of year spells trouble for someone.

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Quoting Elena85Vet:


sweet spot there huh?


Vorticity is there right near where I would put it on the visible, but nothing is going to happen with that shear the way it is across that region. That will have to go away before anything has a chance.
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I am liking the NAM it has been the most consistent model with its track for days now..the CMC has been bouncing around the Texas coastline, the European also, the GFS has just gone retarded so the NAM might be the one to follow the next couple of days
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So what should be someone's expectations for this weekend be if taking a cruise from Tampa to Cozumel leaving Tampa tomorrow eve, arriving in Cozumel Sat am, and leaving Cozumel for Tampa Sunday eve?? Looks like a possible bouncy wet trip to me.
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Quoting Stormridr911:
Is bad vision on my part, or is Katia moving almost due west. It appears that way to me in the last few frames of the RGB loop.

BTW, the blue crabs are moving west off the beaches and eastern waterways into the western waterways and St. Lucie River here in Martin County, FL.


Interesting, does that mean "somethin's comin" again? Last time I saw that happening was back in '79 just before David. Lots of crabs moving ... We lived in Jensen Beach at the time and had to keep swerving to avoid squishing them on A1A.
Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

ALL RIGHT...THE PART OF THE FORECAST EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW
ABOUT. IS IT GOING TO RAIN THIS WEEKEND OR NOT? IF YOU LIVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...YOU WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING AT
LEAST A FEW DROPS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW TO SAY
THE LEAST.

FIRST...TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS NOT ALL THAT
ORGANIZED AND LOOKS TO POSSIBLY MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HARD TO KNOW WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE WAVE ONCE IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF SOMETIME TOMORROW. THE WAVE IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED
BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. SAID ALL OF THIS TO
SAY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHERE IT CAN DEVELOP A CORE OF CONVECTION.

SECOND...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ILL-DEFINED...NONE OF THE MODELS
REALLY HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON HOW TO INITIALIZE IT OR HOW TO HANDLE
ITS EVOLUTION ONCE SOMETHING DOES FORM. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AT LEAST A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SOME
SHAPE AND DEEPENING IT OFF THE LA COAST FRI. THINK IT WEAKENS THE
RIDGE TOO MUCH WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM THE S ROCKIES TO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MINDS AS WELL BE POLAR
OPPOSITES WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS A BROAD WEAK LOW ALONG
THE LA COAST AND MOVES IT EAST WITH TIME AND THEN UP THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK LOW FRI/SAT AND THEN
DEEPENS IT OFF THE LOWER TX COAST SUN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE
W GULF THROUGH MID OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING N INTO SE TX.
NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROBABLY OFFER AT LEAST SOME
GUIDANCE. THE SREF LIKE THE NAM DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE LA COAST
BY FRI BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE GFS
ENSEMBLE. SREF DOES LOOK TO MOVE THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST
SOME LIKE THE NAM AS WELL. THE MAIN TRICK WILL BE TO SEE IF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL BE
ABLE TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM SUN/MON WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
S ROCKIES AND WEAKENING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY OPEN
UP ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO PULL INLAND SUN/MON. ADD TOO THAT
THAT THE EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION MON...THIS
TOO MAY GIVE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM TO PUSH INLAND IN THE SUN/MON
TIME FRAME.

SO UNTIL THE MODELS COME IN TO MORE AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...BEST COURSE SEEMS TO BE TO GO WITH PARTS OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT MAKE THE MOST PHYSICAL SENSE WHICH REALLY IS NOT
MUCH. ALIGNED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND KEEPING
IN MIND LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE N GULF FRI. SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE N/NW GULF
THROUGH SUN WHEN STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH BEGINS TO PULL
IT INLAND SUN/MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION
MON/TUE WHICH CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO CLIMO NORMS WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TEMPS FROM THIS PAST WEEK. AGAIN...WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM BECAUSE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE RAINBANDS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG EAST WINDS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD ALSO BUILD UP SEAS AND COASTAL FLOODING
THREAT. WHILE SE TX COULD USE THE RAINFALL...STILL LOTS OF OTHER
IMPACTS THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY ARE SKETCHY AT BEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME IMPACTS TO THE AREA...BEST TO MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
hmmmmmm....






sweet spot there huh?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Hmmmmm...going on a cruise this weekend from Key West to Cozumel...looks like it could be interesting. Hopefully anything that spins up stays up near Texas and dumps some beneficial rains on them!!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
Quoting bwi:


Yes. I've got over 4k miles on my commuter bike since January. But I don't ride to prevent CO2 emissions or other pollutants necessarily -- I do it because it's so dang much fun!

Plus, it's kind of cool for somebody my age to be able to eat 2k more calories per day than my staff (most of whom are in their 20s and 30s -- mere babes).

Ultimately people will drive less when they realize how annoying driving has become compared with using their own power. We simply don't have enough money to keep building more and more highways and parking spaces to meet the potential demand for "free" roads and "free" parking. Congestion will continue to worsen unless we make a major move toward widespread tolls and higher parking fees. Either way, more people will eventually get out of their cars and demand that their local government shift some of the public resources away from car-dominated planning. In the end, I predict drivers will be grateful that fewer people are clogging the roads when they actually need to use a car to get somewhere!



Ever try to get 4 kids and hockey gear on a bike? Doesn't work.
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hmmmmmm....




shear is high and on the increase in the northern gulf.



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2403. WxLogic
Quoting Chicklit:


a tropical system meandering in the central GOM this time of year spells trouble for someone.



That's for sure.
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Quoting scott39:
The biggest question is when and where it forms.


Most of the models show it manifesting along the Texas or Louisiana coastline so i am pretty confident with that...Texas and Louisiana should start preparing for a heavy rain event because if it hovers around our coasts then a major flood event could be in the making
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2401. LBAR
Charleston, SC NWC discussion...

MODEL GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A LONG WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
THE TROUGH SHOULD STEER TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA AWAY FROM THE U.S.
EAST COAST...HOWEVER DIFFER LARGELY IN DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF A
POTENTIALLY NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT
THAT MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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Quoting scott39:
The biggest question is when and where it forms.


or if it forms
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
2399. scott39
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Now the big Question is how strong it will be when it reaches the Texas/Louisiana coastline right
The biggest question is when and where it forms.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Has it meandering in the C GOM.


a tropical system meandering in the central GOM this time of year spells trouble for someone.

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2397. jpsb
Off topic, but thought folks in the drought area that like to grow veggies might be interested in a how to video

http://earthtainer.tomatofest.com/

video links at bottom of the page.
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Now the big Question is how strong it will be when it reaches the Texas/Louisiana coastline right
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Quoting Jedkins01:


The steering pattern may favor the gulf system heading back east into western Florida. However, its rather early to even discuss that, considering we are talking about a steering pattern that isn't in place yet, and a tropical cyclone that doesn't exist yet either.

A trough pattern would generally favor a gulf system moving east.


Yep, still have time to see what type of pattern we will have. It's been interesting this year. Not exactly like 2010, but hints of it.
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Quoting reedzone:


There are two patterns this year.. Recurvature and blocking. Katia should go right into recurvature pattern and recurve near or west of Bermuda. Irene was under a blocking pattern where the high was building in, however it became a recurvature pattern (somewhat) when a trough came down, strong, then quickly left, but left a weakness behind. This year has been about shortwaves, not necessarily huge troughs as some say on here. As for the GOM system, would not surprise me if it becomes a Hurricane due to the waters being untouched and shear very low. It may spend some time in their as well.


Thank you, Allan and have a nice day.
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I like the way these guys keep their language simple and are not embarrassed to give their confidence percentages, even when they are low : )

Intermediate Update:

Tropical Disturbance 35

Current Location: 20.5N/87.5W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
Movement: West-northwest at 7-10 mph
Max Winds: 25 mph
Organizational Trend: Little change
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 15%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 70%
Forecast Track Confidence: Average first 72 hours, low beyond then due to poor model agreement.

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
There are no significant changes on this advisory.

Our Forecast The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is likely to form into a broad area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, and quite possibly into a tropical storm on Saturday. On this, almost all of the models agree. It's the track beyond Friday and Saturday that is in question. Models are wildly divergent on a possible solution. Much will depend upon when and where development occurs.

We think it is very likely that a tropical storm will form somewhere off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the weekend. If the storm was to remain offshore for 2-3 days as some models indicate, then it could very easily become a hurricane. If the storm moves ashore more quickly, as the Canadian model forecasts, then it would likely only reach tropical storm strength. Given the projected eastward movement of the high pressure over the U.S. this weekend, it may be more likely that any developing storm would move northwestward and inland between the mid Texas coast and the mid Louisiana coast by late this weekend, probably as a tropical storm. Our confidence in any eventual landfall point is very low.

Expected Impacts on Land Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday. Due to the very slow motion expected near the coast, the squalls may last for several days.

Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday evening, which means that Thursday may be the last day of good helicopter flying weather. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.

The next update will be issued by 4PM CDT
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
© ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved
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Quoting reedzone:


There are two patterns this year.. Recurvature and blocking. Katia should go right into recurvature pattern and recurve near or west of Bermuda. Irene was under a blocking pattern where the high was building in, however it became a recurvature pattern (somewhat) when a trough came down, strong, then quickly left, but left a weakness behind. This year has been about shortwaves, not necessarily huge troughs as some say on here. As for the GOM system, would not surprise me if it becomes a Hurricane due to the waters being untouched and shear very low. It may spend some time in their as well.


The steering pattern may favor the gulf system heading back east into western Florida. However, its rather early to even discuss that, considering we are talking about a steering pattern that isn't in place yet, and a tropical cyclone that doesn't exist yet either.

A trough pattern would generally favor a gulf system moving east.
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Quoting TexasMariner:
this whole gulf model scenerio......... couldn't this just be a a fluke of sorts? I mean honestly I really don't see much at all in that region that a cyclone could develop from, and there is also quite a bit of shear in the GOM right now.


Just kinda crossing my fingers it doesn't happen. Even though Texas needs rain we do not need ike 2.


THE NAM, UKMET and the European all show this storm heading towards Texas or Louisiana so theres a good chance Texas and Louisiana will get very beneficial rains
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2389. dearmas
Sooo is Katia going to play with the fish or does she want to come see us in Sunny Flordia??? I know it's prob too soon to tell but...
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Link

Check that formation out west of tampa, its moving in a Counter Clockwise fashion.
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Quoting TexasMariner:



I am thinking that its this area here in the bay of campeche that the models are latching onto. Must be thinking that it will interact with that trough that's moving nw.
No...NAM latching onto the clouds in the se gulf.
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2386. 996tt
Quoting Allyson00:


No worries I won't be posting anymore....it's not worth the aggravation. But FYI, we have more than 38,000 employees who all have access to these updates so not too concerned with how many "extra" people read it. It's a summary anyway, it's not like I'm posting the tons of graphics and tools that go along with it, nor posting a link to their server with login information. I'm also posting their copyright info so they get the credit and future business.

Back to being a lurker only ....hope you all have a good day !


No worries. Not sure if aspectre is a lawyer, but I am. Everyone who thinks they know something, but really do not, always throws out the fair use doctrine. No concern of theirs even if it were to be a violation. I am sure you made vast unjust profits and originator is readily able to show how your post caused a huge monetary loss. If anything, you may have gotten them more business . . .
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Quoting Stormridr911:
Is bad vision on my part, or is Katia moving almost due west. It appears that way to me in the last few frames of the RGB loop.

BTW, the blue crabs are moving west off the beaches and eastern waterways into the western waterways and St. Lucie River here in Martin County, FL.


Crabcaster!
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I am thinking that its this area here in the bay of campeche that the models are latching onto. Must be thinking that it will interact with that trough that's moving nw.
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Only when I see 3-5 more days of consensus of Katia re curving out to sea will I then jump on the Fish/Bermuda forecast. For now, I see Katia as a US east coast threat. Models have started trending west, just like Ive been mentioning for the past few days.

I tend to look at the position and trajectory from Puerto Rico to Cuba to really get a handle on where anything may go.....
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Quoting ackee:
KATIA does look like she is moving WEST
Current trend still appears 275--280 degrees ( W-NW )
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Is bad vision on my part, or is Katia moving almost due west. It appears that way to me in the last few frames of the RGB loop.

BTW, the blue crabs are moving west off the beaches and eastern waterways into the western waterways and St. Lucie River here in Martin County, FL.
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this whole gulf model scenerio......... couldn't this just be a a fluke of sorts? I mean honestly I really don't see much at all in that region that a cyclone could develop from, and there is also quite a bit of shear in the GOM right now.


Just kinda crossing my fingers it doesn't happen. Even though Texas needs rain we do not need ike 2.
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Only when I see 3-5 more days of consensus of Katia re curving out to sea will I then jump on the Fish/Bermuda forecast. For now, I see Katia as a US east coast threat. Models have started trending west, just like Ive been mentioning for the past few days.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Hi Allan:
What are your thoughts on Katia and the GOM system-to-be?


There are two patterns this year.. Recurvature and blocking. Katia should go right into recurvature pattern and recurve near or west of Bermuda. Irene was under a blocking pattern where the high was building in, however it became a recurvature pattern (somewhat) when a trough came down, strong, then quickly left, but left a weakness behind. This year has been about shortwaves, not necessarily huge troughs as some say on here. As for the GOM system, would not surprise me if it becomes a Hurricane due to the waters being untouched and shear very low. It may spend some time in their as well.
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Quoting reedzone:


I have to disagree with Adrian though.. It hasn't been powerful troughs this year. ore like strong/flat troughs that move out quickly with ridge building in. Not totally a recurvature pattern, which is where Irene got stuck under.


Hey reed, thoughts on Katia and future Lee?
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2374. ncstorm




this is not promising..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14230
2373. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
The UKMET Office text indicates a significant cyclone to form in the Gulf of Mexico:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 72 : 28.2N 91.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 03.09.2011 28.2N 91.4W WEAK

12UTC 03.09.2011 28.5N 91.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.09.2011 28.5N 90.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2011 29.1N 90.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 05.09.2011 28.8N 90.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2011 28.0N 91.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2011 27.5N 91.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



Has it meandering in the C GOM.
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2372. GetReal
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Hi Allan:
What are your thoughts on Katia and the GOM system-to-be?
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2370. ackee
KATIA does look like she is moving WEST
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...KATIA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 31
Location: 14.2°N 40.8°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
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Quoting jascott1967:


I believe hurricane was refering to the entire year not just one storm. One storm does not a trend make.


I have to disagree with Adrian though.. It hasn't been powerful troughs this year. ore like strong/flat troughs that move out quickly with ridge building in. Not totally a recurvature pattern, which is where Irene got stuck under.
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Quoting synthvol:
"Thanks...I've decided to post twice a day..."

Thank YOU Allyson. We appreciate the info very much!!!


Agree 100%. I look foward to your posts too
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.