Irene's rains heaviest on record in Vermont; Tropical Storm Katia forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

Share this Blog
29
+

Record flooding continues in the Northeast from Irene's torrential rains. Hardest hit was Vermont, where heavy rains in the weeks prior to Irene's arrival had left soils in the top 20% for moisture, historically. Irene dumped 5 - 8 inches of rain over large sections of Vermont, with a peak of 11.23" at Mendo. The reading from Mendo was the greatest single-day rainfall in Vermont's history, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, beating the 9.92" that fell at Mt. Mansfield on 9/17/1999 during the passage of Tropical Storm Floyd. The 13.30" that fell on East Durham, NY during Irene was just shy of New York State's all-time 1-day rainfall record: 13.70" at Brewster on 9/16/1999, from Tropical Storm Floyd.


Figure 1. Wunderphotographer 43BJAGER recorded this image of a house in Sharon, Vermont, that started out the week on the other side of this underpass.

According to the final Hurricane Irene summary from the NWS, the storm dropped 20" of rain in two locations, one in North Carolina and one in Virginia. Here are the highest rain amounts from the hurricane for each state:

Virginia Beach, VA: 20.40"
Jacksonville, NC: 20.00"
East Durham, NY: 13.30"
Freehold Twp, NJ: 11.27"
Mendon, VT: 11.23"
Ellendale, DE: 10.43"
New Hartford, CT 10.15"
Baxter St. Park, ME: 9.91"
Savoy, MA: 9.10"
Lafayette, PA: 8.82"
Pinkham North, NH: 7.33"
Warren, RI: 5.37"

Tropical Storm Katia forms
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Katia will be in a moist, low wind shear environment with ocean temperature 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed to support a hurricane, and should be able to intensify to major hurricane strength when it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands 5 - 6 days from now. It is possible that some of the outer spiral bands of the storm might bring heavy rain squalls to the northern Lesser Antilles, but it would be a surprise if the core of the storm passed through the islands. The long term fate of Katia is unknown. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 19% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 16% chance of hitting Canada, an 11% chance of hitting Florida, and a 47% chance of never hitting land.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast.

Katia is the 11th named storm this year, and comes a full twelve days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 25 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Katia's formation date of August 30 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 11th storm.

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteer Thomas Hudson clears a driveway yesterday in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday discussing if the evacuations and media hype surrounding Irene were excessive.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1165 - 1115

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Quoting levi33:
lol, good one
Quoting levi33:
lol, i'm serious
I'm going with C


Levi33 huh? WTF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You're right, Taz.

He made it look like Katia by taking out the number one in front of the second paragraph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very funny...eating nicely together without fighting or being mean to each other.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Monsoonal? The monsoon trough is on the other side of Mexico. The 8 pm TWO (conveniently posted above by CloudGatherer) clearly states:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.


The monsoon trough isn't the only thing that makes a system monsoonal, though. I have seen large circulations form without direct influence from the monsoon trough. Other mechanisms are sometimes present for that, usually when there are several factors going on at once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. Levi32
Quoting weatherh98:
Amazing Levi 33 has successfully copied levi 32 and I cant ignore 33 just my luck no poofing* can anyone help with that


Yes you can ignore him. Just hit the "ignore user" button.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone has a loop to see if Katia is tracking thru the forecast points or is missing them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
NO!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN





did you even look at post 1119? so yes they did lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting levi33:
lol, i'm serious
I'm going with C


Oh were being serious then I'm thhinking the nhc will declare it a cat 12 with winds of 540 mph because a meteor will randomly hit and make a hypercane :P
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting KoritheMan:


The only reason I disagree is that the circulation envelope may be rather large.


The set-up being depicted by the models doesn't appear to be of monsoonal nature though...Its a tropical wave interacting with an Upper Level Low, can't really see anything monsoonal out of that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
1148. aquak9
Quoting DrLucreto:


I don't claim extensive knowledge in zoology.

(aqua is left speechless for a moment)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The GOMEX storm doesn't appear to be monsoonal in nature, where you have heat building up in Caribbean and that energy transfers to the GOMEX as we saw with Arlene and Alex. Rather, this appears to be a tropical wave interacting with a split off MLC that formed off a frontal boundary. The situation somewhat reminds me of Lorenzo in 2007, which did indeed become a hurricane. It will be interesting how this transpires though, whether it develops or not. Given that we're in the time of year that storms develop, this becoming Lee is certainly possible.


Well, the models did at least loosely support my conclusion yesterday, showing a sizable cyclonic envelope. But, I will get back to you on this once I finish analysis today. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Katrina-Katia
Rita-Rina
What kind of names are these?! Lee-le Maria-Mari Nate-Nat LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. Vero1
Quoting Chicklit:
Did somebody just post a bogus NHC report?
NO!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re Post 1119: Katia is nowhere near the Yucatan nor is she forecast to go there in the near future.

OOPS! My sincere apologies!
I read it wrong...not wearing my glasses!
Again, my sincere apologies CloudB!

Must find those glasses before reading the blog...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1142. bappit
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm going to assume you're joking again. :P

Yes, storms in the Gulf do sometimes rapidly intensify if conditions are ideal, but they should not be with this disturbance. It appears to me that it will be monsoonal in nature, for one thing, and how often do you see one of those undergo rapid intensification?

Monsoonal? The monsoon trough is on the other side of Mexico. The 8 pm TWO (conveniently posted above by CloudGatherer) clearly states:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
Must be Levi (the real one) wanting to mess w us ;) jk Levi32
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting FLdewey:
I kind of like how they come in waves. Fake accounts at landfall looking for help, dupe accounts, jason accounts.

I wonder if there is an entire wunder-troll blog where they come up with this stuff.

Either that, or it's just one very, very lonely individual.



Yea, it's NOSTORM playin' w/himself under levi and Drlucy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm going to assume you're joking again. :P

Yes, storms in the Gulf do sometimes rapidly intensify if conditions are ideal, but they should not be with this disturbance. It appears to me that it will be monsoonal in nature, for one thing, and how often do you see one of those undergo rapid intensification?
No, I was no joking with that post. Alicia caught most of the HouGalv area totally by surprise. But in this case, you are most likely correct for the points you listed (monsoonal , conditions not ideal, etc). Just need to have everything on hand for the unexpected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. JGreco
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Disagree - The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, very, very warm. The models are also showing a favorable shear environment for strengthening. Lastly, without that high pressure system parked right over Texas, there will not be dry continental air being pulled into the systems circulation.

All systems are a go IMO...


I'm afraid of how strong this thing will get depending on the speed of formation:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did somebody just post a bogus NHC report?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GOMEX storm doesn't appear to be monsoonal in nature, where you have heat building up in Caribbean and that energy transfers to the GOMEX as we saw with Arlene and Alex. Rather, this appears to be a tropical wave interacting with a split off MLC that formed off a frontal boundary. The situation somewhat reminds me of Lorenzo in 2007, which did indeed become a hurricane. It will be interesting how this transpires though, whether it develops or not. Given that we're in the time of year that storms develop, this becoming Lee is certainly possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Disagree - The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, very, very warm. The models are also showing a favorable shear environment for strengthening. Lastly, without that high pressure system parked right over Texas, there will not be dry continental air being pulled into the systems circulation.

All systems are a go IMO...


The only reason I disagree is that the circulation envelope may be rather large.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1132. ackee
WHAT does steering pattern looks like as we go towards the peak of the seasons does seem like CV system will go fish
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1129. scott39
I guess its ZOO hour here at WU! Time to do some choppin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1128. DFWjc
Quoting aquak9:

They're not BOTH rabbits.

(permission requested to use "bonehead"?)


shhhh in his little world they are "rabbits"
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting levi33:
What intensity will Katia attain?

A ) 95
B ) 115
C ) 130
D ) 155


279Mph
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting xcool:


Thanks xcool....a good visual....we needed it :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Fortunately, whatever does develop down here, be it a broad low pressure area of a full-fledged tropical cyclone, is unlikely to rapidly intensify (or even become a hurricane) for a variety of reasons.


Disagree - The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, very, very warm. The models are also showing a favorable shear environment for strengthening. Lastly, without that high pressure system parked right over Texas, there will not be dry continental air being pulled into the systems circulation.

All systems are a go IMO...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting aquak9:


That's good news for Texas, right?

Plenty of popcorn here (passes bowl around to other laughing lurkers)


Great news, it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1121. aquak9
Quoting DrLucreto:


Useless image, unless you are implying that these rabbits could somehow effect the weather (ie. chaos theory/butterfly effect)

They're not BOTH rabbits.

(permission requested to use "bonehead"?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HouGalv08:
Umm...I beg to differ. Alicia was supposed to do the same thing. We went to bed with a T/Storm headed our way from LA, and woke up with a stron cat 2 headed our way. SURPRISE!


I'm going to assume you're joking again. :P

Yes, storms in the Gulf do sometimes rapidly intensify if conditions are ideal, but they should not be with this disturbance. It appears to me that it will be monsoonal in nature, for one thing, and how often do you see one of those undergo rapid intensification?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


naahhh..JupiterFL is a handsome charming devil. And you? well you're a, uhmm...planet.


Thank aquak9! At least he is not Uranus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hear imitation is the best form of flattery...not in this case LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1116. DFWjc
Quoting HouGalv08:
Umm...I beg to differ. Alicia was supposed to do the same thing. We went to bed with a T/Storm headed our way from LA, and woke up with a strong cat 2 headed our way. SURPRISE!


Hurricane Humberto?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting Neapolitan:

Umm---thanks?

Seriously, though: you may think you hate me now--but wait until you get to know me. ;-)


LOL! time will tell, and I fear we have a long season a head of us on DR Master's Blog..
plus, I don't "Hate" I am a Christian Conservative Liberatarian, I don't Hate.. I just "agree to disagree"




Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1165 - 1115

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
78 °F
Scattered Clouds