Irene's rains heaviest on record in Vermont; Tropical Storm Katia forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

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Record flooding continues in the Northeast from Irene's torrential rains. Hardest hit was Vermont, where heavy rains in the weeks prior to Irene's arrival had left soils in the top 20% for moisture, historically. Irene dumped 5 - 8 inches of rain over large sections of Vermont, with a peak of 11.23" at Mendo. The reading from Mendo was the greatest single-day rainfall in Vermont's history, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, beating the 9.92" that fell at Mt. Mansfield on 9/17/1999 during the passage of Tropical Storm Floyd. The 13.30" that fell on East Durham, NY during Irene was just shy of New York State's all-time 1-day rainfall record: 13.70" at Brewster on 9/16/1999, from Tropical Storm Floyd.


Figure 1. Wunderphotographer 43BJAGER recorded this image of a house in Sharon, Vermont, that started out the week on the other side of this underpass.

According to the final Hurricane Irene summary from the NWS, the storm dropped 20" of rain in two locations, one in North Carolina and one in Virginia. Here are the highest rain amounts from the hurricane for each state:

Virginia Beach, VA: 20.40"
Jacksonville, NC: 20.00"
East Durham, NY: 13.30"
Freehold Twp, NJ: 11.27"
Mendon, VT: 11.23"
Ellendale, DE: 10.43"
New Hartford, CT 10.15"
Baxter St. Park, ME: 9.91"
Savoy, MA: 9.10"
Lafayette, PA: 8.82"
Pinkham North, NH: 7.33"
Warren, RI: 5.37"

Tropical Storm Katia forms
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Katia will be in a moist, low wind shear environment with ocean temperature 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed to support a hurricane, and should be able to intensify to major hurricane strength when it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands 5 - 6 days from now. It is possible that some of the outer spiral bands of the storm might bring heavy rain squalls to the northern Lesser Antilles, but it would be a surprise if the core of the storm passed through the islands. The long term fate of Katia is unknown. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 19% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 16% chance of hitting Canada, an 11% chance of hitting Florida, and a 47% chance of never hitting land.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast.

Katia is the 11th named storm this year, and comes a full twelve days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 25 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Katia's formation date of August 30 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 11th storm.

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteer Thomas Hudson clears a driveway yesterday in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday discussing if the evacuations and media hype surrounding Irene were excessive.

Jeff Masters

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1214. Dennis8
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES WAS SET AT HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103
DEGREES SET IN 1909. THIS IS THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD AND THE 39TH 100 DEGREE DAY THIS SUMMER.




..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY
AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 DEGREES SET IN
1998. THIS WAS THE 13TH DAY THIS SUMMER WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 100
DEGREES OR HIGHER.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. Dakster
PRESSLORD!!!

HOW are you and the folks doing? I see you are up to helping other as always. Glad you could come on the blog.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FookyMonster:
I have been lurking in this blog for a few years now and I do get some great information out of it. However, many of you continue to wish cast and mentally lure a storm to a location that is outside of the NHC forecast. I am not sure if many of you that do this have ever been through a destructive storm or hurricane but I must say this. You do not want to live the results of a hurricane. I have lived in FL for more than 25 years and I have been through 3 storms, Erin, Open and Ivan while living in Pensacola.

This blog should be used to gain information and help guide those who are less knowledgeable about the details of meteorology and receive information to better themselves.

Poof me if you want but this is my 2 cents.

We can't change what will naturally happen, but we can increase our knowledge to obtain a better standard and way of life.


nah,,,that guy got banned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The storms that roll off Cuba usually die half way here. Looks like these are crankin' up for a change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1210. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
Yo Dak
just enjoying the free comedy here


Yes... It has been an interesting day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1209. aquak9
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I fear the same thing. Let's hope it stays contained within the blog, and doesn't cause much damage.
.
I probably shouldn't say anything...but I think both you and Nea are really good bloggers that help make the site better. It's not right to see one of you saying they don't like the other. Agreeing that everyone has their own political pov or personality quirks, I keep these things private...away from the blogs, especially the main.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry for the interuption folks but this is never a good sign this time of the year in the GOMEX

Day 3



Day 6 and its still over water umm in the GOMEX

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1207. rv1pop
Quoting weatherh98:


Yea tried man it doesn't work
after you go through the update list page and get back to main blog page hit F5.
The way it always works best for me:
Right click on ignore user
and left click open in new tab.
Scroll down to update list.
when the go to your blog comes up
Close the TAB. You are then back to whee you started.
If you hit F5 at that point, usually it will refresh the page, but sometimes will go to the next set of posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z UKMET
Has an area of low pressure forming just off the coast of Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CrazyDuke:
I think Katia will max out at exactly (2.4 x 10^6)^(1/3) * i^5 knots.

You will need to know a decent amount of math to get that joke.


nerd
(I don't get it) :(
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting seflagamma:


LOL! time will tell, and I fear we have a long season a head of us on DR Master's Blog..
plus, I don't "Hate" I am a Christian Conservative Liberatarian, I don't Hate.. I just "agree to disagree"




I fear the same thing. Let's hope it stays contained within the blog, and doesn't cause much damage.
.
I probably shouldn't say anything...but I think both you and Nea are really good bloggers that help make the site better. It's not right to see one of you saying they don't like the other. Agreeing that everyone has their own political pov or personality quirks, I keep these things private...away from the blogs, especially the main.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
1202. Dakster
Quoting Chicklit:
Re Post 1119: Katia is nowhere near the Yucatan nor is she forecast to go there in the near future.

OOPS! My sincere apologies!
I read it wrong...not wearing my glasses!
Again, my sincere apologies CloudB!

Must find those glasses before reading the blog...


Don't forget the pepto-bismal either... need that too sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:

I said, "...a moment".


It was in pencil. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Katia will max out at exactly (2.4 x 10^6)^(1/3) * i^5 knots.

You will need to know a decent amount of math to get that joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FookyMonster:
I have been lurking in this blog for a few years now and I do get some great information out of it. However, many of you continue to wish cast and mentally lure a storm to a location that is outside of the NHC forecast. I am not sure if many of you that do this have ever been through a destructive storm or hurricane but I must say this. You do not want to live the results of a hurricane. I have lived in FL for more than 25 years and I have been through 3 storms, Erin, Open and Ivan while living in Pensacola.

This blog should be used to gain information and help guide those who are less knowledgeable about the details of meteorology and receive information to better themselves.

Poof me if you want but this is my 2 cents.

We can't change what will naturally happen, but we can increase our knowledge to obtain a better standard and way of life.


It is human nature to speculate. I have been through numerous hurricanes, but that doesn't mean I don't keep two eyes on a storm potentially getting to my location at all times, even if the chances are nil.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
1196. aquak9
Yo Dak
just enjoying the free comedy here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just hope winter stays away from me for as long as possible. Hot summer though it has been, I do not feel compelled to freeze to death just yet. :/



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
Quoting Tazmanian:
now for some in vary new


and its geting closer too that time of year



look what MT has for the 1st time this season


WWUS45 KTFX 302043
WSWTFX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

MTZ009-310400-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WW.Y.0045.110901T0600Z-110901T1800Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
THURSDAY.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

* MAIN IMPACTS: ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. THOSE WHO HAVE RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
LIKE CONDITIONS.

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY AT TIMES OVER LOGAN PASS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AT THE PASS LEVEL MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE GRASSY AREAS.




000
WWUS45 KMSO 301733
WSWMSO

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1133 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011


MTZ002-311215-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WW.Y.0055.110901T0600Z-110901T1800Z/
WEST GLACIER REGION-
1133 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
LOGAN PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON LOGAN
PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS/TIMING: SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 6500 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GLACIER PARK INCLUDING OVER LOGAN PASS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


I just hope winter stays away from me for as long as possible. Hot summer though it has been, I do not feel compelled to freeze to death just yet. :/
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
1193. aquak9
Quoting PcolaDan:


calendar marked :)

I said, "...a moment".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have been lurking in this blog for a few years now and I do get some great information out of it. However, many of you continue to wish cast and mentally lure a storm to a location that is outside of the NHC forecast. I am not sure if many of you that do this have ever been through a destructive storm or hurricane but I must say this. You do not want to live the results of a hurricane. I have lived in FL for more than 25 years and I have been through 3 storms, Erin, Open and Ivan while living in Pensacola.

This blog should be used to gain information and help guide those who are less knowledgeable about the details of meteorology and receive information to better themselves.

Poof me if you want but this is my 2 cents.

We can't change what will naturally happen, but we can increase our knowledge to obtain a better standard and way of life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1191. Dakster
Hey Waterdog!!! How is it going in Central Florida???

Getting geared up to watch all the fun in the tropics?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



That network still has viewers????!!!!

Why not?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
now for some in vary new


and its geting closer too that time of year



look what MT has for the 1st time this season


WWUS45 KTFX 302043
WSWTFX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

MTZ009-310400-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WW.Y.0045.110901T0600Z-110901T1800Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
THURSDAY.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

* MAIN IMPACTS: ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. THOSE WHO HAVE RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
LIKE CONDITIONS.

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY AT TIMES OVER LOGAN PASS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AT THE PASS LEVEL MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE GRASSY AREAS.




000
WWUS45 KMSO 301733
WSWMSO

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1133 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011


MTZ002-311215-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WW.Y.0055.110901T0600Z-110901T1800Z/
WEST GLACIER REGION-
1133 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
LOGAN PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON LOGAN
PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS/TIMING: SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 6500 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GLACIER PARK INCLUDING OVER LOGAN PASS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:

(aqua is left speechless for a moment)


calendar marked :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting OcalaGator:
Jeff Masters is on MSNBC right now.



That network still has viewers????!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
For What?


For not worshiping the MacTavish numbers, obviously.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
1182. aquak9
Quoting DrLucreto:
I really hope that Katia develops concentric eyewalls and is forced to undergo an EWRC, that could be what saves Bermuda.

You're kidding, right? can I quote you on this(modified- ooops I just did, hahahaha)

You're a little ahead of yourself, don'tcha think?

Rabbit. Squirrel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1181. scott39
Quoting DrLucreto:


Reported.

Also GOM event looks like a go at this point.
For What?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1179. rv1pop
Quoting aquak9:

(aqua is left speechless for a moment)
but she is quoting the troll and it's not!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Great news, it is.


Great news indeed, the little woodland critters around here aren't looking so hot. So many birds losing their feathers and downright scrawny looking. The squirrels have been making use of whatever smooth, shady surface they can find to cool down on too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. scott39
test
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
1169. You do that.


Go levi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why are there trolls? Why do they com here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
1169. You do that.


lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting Chicklit:
You're right, Taz.

He made it look like Katia by taking out the number one in front of the second paragraph.



Um thats not a bogus TWO, when you look at the graphical TWO it does number the systems that they are talking about

Graphical TWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1170. Levi32
1169. You do that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yes you can ignore him. Just hit the "ignore user" button.


Yea tried man it doesn't work
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Yes you can ignore him. Just hit the "ignore user" button.
When do you think the the AOI in the Caribbean will be labeled an Invest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My bad. Seems he's here with multiple names tonight. not just two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting levi33:
lol, good one
Quoting levi33:
lol, i'm serious
I'm going with C


Levi33 huh? WTF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.