Irene's rains heaviest on record in Vermont; Tropical Storm Katia forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

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Record flooding continues in the Northeast from Irene's torrential rains. Hardest hit was Vermont, where heavy rains in the weeks prior to Irene's arrival had left soils in the top 20% for moisture, historically. Irene dumped 5 - 8 inches of rain over large sections of Vermont, with a peak of 11.23" at Mendo. The reading from Mendo was the greatest single-day rainfall in Vermont's history, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, beating the 9.92" that fell at Mt. Mansfield on 9/17/1999 during the passage of Tropical Storm Floyd. The 13.30" that fell on East Durham, NY during Irene was just shy of New York State's all-time 1-day rainfall record: 13.70" at Brewster on 9/16/1999, from Tropical Storm Floyd.


Figure 1. Wunderphotographer 43BJAGER recorded this image of a house in Sharon, Vermont, that started out the week on the other side of this underpass.

According to the final Hurricane Irene summary from the NWS, the storm dropped 20" of rain in two locations, one in North Carolina and one in Virginia. Here are the highest rain amounts from the hurricane for each state:

Virginia Beach, VA: 20.40"
Jacksonville, NC: 20.00"
East Durham, NY: 13.30"
Freehold Twp, NJ: 11.27"
Mendon, VT: 11.23"
Ellendale, DE: 10.43"
New Hartford, CT 10.15"
Baxter St. Park, ME: 9.91"
Savoy, MA: 9.10"
Lafayette, PA: 8.82"
Pinkham North, NH: 7.33"
Warren, RI: 5.37"

Tropical Storm Katia forms
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Katia will be in a moist, low wind shear environment with ocean temperature 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed to support a hurricane, and should be able to intensify to major hurricane strength when it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands 5 - 6 days from now. It is possible that some of the outer spiral bands of the storm might bring heavy rain squalls to the northern Lesser Antilles, but it would be a surprise if the core of the storm passed through the islands. The long term fate of Katia is unknown. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 19% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 16% chance of hitting Canada, an 11% chance of hitting Florida, and a 47% chance of never hitting land.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast.

Katia is the 11th named storm this year, and comes a full twelve days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 25 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Katia's formation date of August 30 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 11th storm.

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteer Thomas Hudson clears a driveway yesterday in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday discussing if the evacuations and media hype surrounding Irene were excessive.

Jeff Masters

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1615. angiest
Quoting scott39:
The bad thing about a GOM developement,is that it HAS to hit land!


Bonnie last year ceased to be a TC just before landfall. ;)
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1614. SLU
Not much wind south of the center.

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1613. scott39
The bad thing about a GOM developement,is that it HAS to hit land!
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1611. BtnTx
Quoting presslord:


yes...they cover some odd territory
I find coast to coast very entertaining at times
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A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Zone Forecast: Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River Louisiana out 20 NM (GMZ550)

Synopsis...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON STEERING CURRENTS...THE LOW OVER THE GULF MAY STALL FOR A TIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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Quoting scott39:
Hope its not worth much, chillin in the GOM for a week couldnt be good for somebodies!




Tell Me about it--I'm heading offshore out of Venice Friday morning
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Quoting twincomanche:
He will think up all the reasons to discredit the author the scientists and anyone who funded this experiment. I thought of him when I read this today. He calls others denialists however he and the Doc are some of the worst.



Both Neopolitan and the "Doc" back up any opinions they may have with facts. They stick with the data rather than conjecture. If you have so little regard for the "Doc" I wonder why you spend so much time on the blog.
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1607. scott39
Looks like the latest outside of the cone for Katia, is N of the Islands.
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1606. Oct8
Quoting Orcasystems:
I figure Neoploitan is going to have a conniption when he reads this :)

Link


Sunspots are so complicated of an explanation, and proved wrong when all the data are carefully examined.

http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/global_w arming_myths.html

If you shine light on earth, some energy is reflected at IR. CO2 absorbs IR and retransmits back to earth or into space, hence the greenhouse effect. It is simple science. Did CO2 levels increase during the last 100 years? Yep.
Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
Quoting Bluestorm5:
figures... thanks for infos.

On the other hand FALAFEL taste pretty good. There are a couple of these phony models like the "McTavish", some tongue in cheek some clearly malicious.
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Quoting twincomanche:
He will think up all the reasons to discredit the author the scientists and anyone who funded this experiment. I thought of him when I read this today. He calls others denialists however he and the Doc are some of the worst.



AMEN!!!!
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1603. scott39
Quoting Huracaneer:
Both the GFS long term and the ECMWF seem to hint at something meandering in the Gulf (I don't think it's the yellow circle that the NHC mentioned). What does everybody think? Too early to worry?
The yellow circle (wave) will be moving into the GOM and possibly develope.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
I figure Neoploitan is going to have a conniption when he reads this :)

Link


I had heard about that over the weekend, but that is a great article.
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Both the GFS long term and the ECMWF seem to hint at something meandering in the Gulf (I don't think it's the yellow circle that the NHC mentioned). What does everybody think? Too early to worry?
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Google it.The PLANFALF model is fake, something that a troll made up.
figures... thanks for infos.
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Katia is really moving right along. More than 100 miles ahead of her forecast 12 hour position at 11 a.m.

Maybe she's moving too fast to really tighten up and will wait to ramp up when she drops below 20 mph.
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125 mph Category 4 96 hours from now? I'm glad it's not going close to East Coast (Too early to say this for sure, though....). BUT this is not a fish storm because Bermuda can be in trouble.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


How bad was Fabian there? What's your Fabian story?


Fabian was terrifying in the northern part of the Bermuda isles (and we didn't even get the worst) I believe we saw Cat.2 sustained conditions here, and there were some Cat.3 conditions just to the south, the wind was howling like I had never heard before. Although our building codes are quite good here, I thought the concrete structure I was in could collapse certainly the worst experience of my life to this point. The aftermath was pretty bad too, power out, roofs scattered all over the place, the airport got hit pretty hard as well.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
still 60 mph TS at 11 pm update... good night y'all. See you tomorrow afternoon... maybe check in the morning for one or two posts.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its herring... dry smoked... then boiled


everything sounded ok until the boiled part...ewww
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Quoting zerveftexas:

All time record of 111 was recorded this last weekend. Was 106 today. I'm still in shock.

Maybe we'll have El Nino this winter which means rain.
not unless the world turns upside down. Wait , that doesn't happen until 12/21/12.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
I figure Neoploitan is going to have a conniption when he reads this :)

Link


lol might be a fun read
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 310238
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWED
THAT THE CENTER OF KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...ANOTHER BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM
1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. KATIA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
WATER AND VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
KATIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE HWRF/GFDL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

KATIA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/19 KT. KATIA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INDUCES A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.3N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 31/1200Z 14.0N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.8N 43.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 15.5N 46.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 16.5N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 18.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting zerveftexas:
18z PLANFALF model takes a strong Hurricane Katia into Central America...with McTavish numbers exceeding 8.0.
never heard of this model.... and more than 8.0? That model is talking about 200 mph hurricane into Central America? Impossible....
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Quoting muddertracker:

Is that like canned pickeled fish? Seriously...what is it? Never heard of it.


Its herring... dry smoked... then boiled
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Quoting MysteryMeat:


I was looking for a screenname that says "i don't want none of y'all knowing who I am" but couldn't think of anything clever offhand. Got hungry, walked to 7-11, and it came to me.

Meatloaf distributor sounds like a dream job. Especially if the means of distribution are those t-shirt cannons.
Screennames can be misleading if people look into them too much. Mine, for instance, back in 2005 when I didn't know what a blog really was, is named after my old golden lab/shephard mix, named Cosmic. Finally had to put her down 6 months ago, but she was in too much pain. She lived a nice long life.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5611
1584. Walshy
Quoting zerveftexas:
anyone think El Nino for this upcoming winter??????


La Nina.
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1582. Oct8
Quoting StormHype:
Some Hurricane Irene during vs after contrast video:
Link



CHERRY PICKING. LOLOLOL
Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
I figure Neoploitan is going to have a conniption when he reads this :)

Link
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Quoting ncstorm:
whoa..has anyone seen the ECMWF ensembles..Florida/Katia and much farther west to the East coast..

Link


The ensembles also had Irene in the GOM. Grain of salt.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, this is just wrong...
After actually having Kippered Herring in the navy for Breakfast... I would have called it Mystery meat.

Is that like canned pickeled fish? Seriously...what is it? Never heard of it.
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Quoting BDAwx:
The thing about Jose is that naming it made no real difference in our warnings as we were under gale warnings, thunderstorm advisories, and small craft warnings anyways. Plus the swell from Irene was still a good 5-10', so our beaches were pretty much closed anyways.

I'd hesitate before saying anything is the next Fabian. People may think we are crying wolf after Igor. But it gets me a little on edge to see models pointing anything at me even at such a timeframe because I know it can and has happened before. We get struck surprisingly frequently for being such a small spot to hit, these storms have good aim!


Hey where are you from? St. George's here
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
Some Hurricane Irene during vs after contrast video:
Link

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Quoting BDAwx:
The thing about Jose is that naming it made no real difference in our warnings as we were under gale warnings, thunderstorm advisories, and small craft warnings anyways. Plus the swell from Irene was still a good 5-10', so our beaches were pretty much closed anyways.

I'd hesitate before saying anything is the next Fabian. People may think we are crying wolf after Igor. But it gets me a little on edge to see models pointing anything at me even at such a timeframe because I know it can and has happened before. We get struck surprisingly frequently for being such a small spot to hit, these storms have good aim!


How bad was Fabian there? What's your Fabian story?
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Quoting kipperedherring:
Only Mysterymeat can stop this now!


OK, this is just wrong...
After actually having Kippered Herring in the navy for Breakfast... I would have called it Mystery meat.

Hmmm Pot calling the Kettle black
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh we have 93L?

No
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting blsealevel:


Listing to this program sounds like their talking about some kind of dooms day thing is this what this program usaly about?


yes...they cover some odd territory
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Quoting blsealevel:


Listing to this program sounds like their talking about some kind of dooms day thing is this what this program usaly about?


Aliens...UFO's...Time Travel...Big Foot...Just a fun show to listen to.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
1568. scott39
Quoting coffeecrusader:
For what it's worth, the 18z GFS has the GOM storm meandering around the gulf for nearly a week and eventually moving southeast towards the west coast of Florida.
Hope its not worth much, chillin in the GOM for a week couldnt be good for somebodies!
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Quoting MysteryMeat:


I was looking for a screenname that says "i don't want none of y'all knowing who I am" but couldn't think of anything clever offhand. Got hungry, walked to 7-11, and it came to me.

Meatloaf distributor sounds like a dream job. Especially if the means of distribution are those t-shirt cannons.


lol...t-shirt cannons rock...

just having some fun tonight, thanks for not getting offended...lol...some do :)

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1566. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:


What the heck happened at the end of the loop?


shows the ensembles spread..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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