Irene's rains heaviest on record in Vermont; Tropical Storm Katia forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

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Record flooding continues in the Northeast from Irene's torrential rains. Hardest hit was Vermont, where heavy rains in the weeks prior to Irene's arrival had left soils in the top 20% for moisture, historically. Irene dumped 5 - 8 inches of rain over large sections of Vermont, with a peak of 11.23" at Mendo. The reading from Mendo was the greatest single-day rainfall in Vermont's history, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, beating the 9.92" that fell at Mt. Mansfield on 9/17/1999 during the passage of Tropical Storm Floyd. The 13.30" that fell on East Durham, NY during Irene was just shy of New York State's all-time 1-day rainfall record: 13.70" at Brewster on 9/16/1999, from Tropical Storm Floyd.


Figure 1. Wunderphotographer 43BJAGER recorded this image of a house in Sharon, Vermont, that started out the week on the other side of this underpass.

According to the final Hurricane Irene summary from the NWS, the storm dropped 20" of rain in two locations, one in North Carolina and one in Virginia. Here are the highest rain amounts from the hurricane for each state:

Virginia Beach, VA: 20.40"
Jacksonville, NC: 20.00"
East Durham, NY: 13.30"
Freehold Twp, NJ: 11.27"
Mendon, VT: 11.23"
Ellendale, DE: 10.43"
New Hartford, CT 10.15"
Baxter St. Park, ME: 9.91"
Savoy, MA: 9.10"
Lafayette, PA: 8.82"
Pinkham North, NH: 7.33"
Warren, RI: 5.37"

Tropical Storm Katia forms
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Katia will be in a moist, low wind shear environment with ocean temperature 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed to support a hurricane, and should be able to intensify to major hurricane strength when it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands 5 - 6 days from now. It is possible that some of the outer spiral bands of the storm might bring heavy rain squalls to the northern Lesser Antilles, but it would be a surprise if the core of the storm passed through the islands. The long term fate of Katia is unknown. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 19% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 16% chance of hitting Canada, an 11% chance of hitting Florida, and a 47% chance of never hitting land.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast.

Katia is the 11th named storm this year, and comes a full twelve days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 25 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Katia's formation date of August 30 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 11th storm.

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteer Thomas Hudson clears a driveway yesterday in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday discussing if the evacuations and media hype surrounding Irene were excessive.

Jeff Masters

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TS.Katia's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 30August_6amGMT and ending 31August_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicaStormKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Katia's travel-speed was 19.8mph(31.9k/h) on a heading of 286.9degrees(WNW)
TS.Katia was headed toward passage over Moa,Cuba ~5days2&1/3.hours from now

Copy&paste 11.5n30.9w-12.0n32.8w, 12.0n32.8w-12.6n34.7w, 12.6n34.7w-13.1n36.6w, 13.1n36.6w-13.6n38.3w, moa, 13.1n36.6w-20.670n74.944w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 31August_12amGMT)
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Trying to nudge it a little west!
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Much needed rain.
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Quoting Seawall:


Well, the whole season has been weird, have to admit that!
I agree. Should be interesting to say the least.
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Quoting Seawall:
This is a chilling video of the damage in Vermont. Let it load first, click pause, then when the bar is halfway, click play. Just absolutely incredible damage in Vermont.
Link
Wow! A sobering reminder. She was definitely NOT over-hyped! :(
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2010. Seawall
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Lol. I've seen some coastal riders in our history but like 300 years ago. Racer's storm comes to mind. But if that played out it would go down at least as a weird one.


Well, the whole season has been weird, have to admit that!
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Quoting Seawall:

Oh no! I'm closing my eyes, don't want to see it... We need rain so badly, and you do as well, but not in THAT dose... !!!!
Lol. I've seen some coastal riders in our history but like 300 years ago. Racer's storm comes to mind. But if that played out it would go down at least as a weird one.
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2008. Seawall
This is a chilling video of the damage in Vermont. Let it load first, click pause, then when the bar is halfway, click play. Just absolutely incredible damage in Vermont.
Link
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Quoting EastTexJake:


At this point I'd take it and be thankful for it.
Yeah, it doesn't show a very deep storm even at landfall. Best I can tell. Just hope its as wet as it is windy.
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2006. Seawall
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Hey Seawall. Not familiar with the Lake Charles crew or Robins. But Have you seen the latest EURO? It is crazy for our area and ends up on top of us. Keeps it off shore of TX keeping SW LA, TX and part of mexico under near constant thirty + knot winds the entire run. Then moves onshore around GAL, then NE to SW LA. First model i've seen landfall. Lol Talk about a bumpy ride!





Oh no! I'm closing my eyes, don't want to see it... We need rain so badly, and you do as well, but not in THAT dose... !!!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Hey Seawall. Not familiar with the Lake Charles crew or Robins. But Have you seen the latest EURO? It is crazy for our area and ends up on top of us. Keeps it off shore of TX keeping SW LA, TX and part of mexico under near constant thirty + knot winds the entire run. Then moves onshore around GAL, then NE to SW LA. First model i've seen landfall. Lol Talk about a bumpy ride!






At this point I'd take it and be thankful for it.
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Trofs over atl now.......I'd say all bets are off!

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Quoting Seawall:
When you're in SE TX, or SW LA, who is your "Go To" guy for the weather? Is it Kerry Cooper and Greg Boswick of KFDM, or Patrick Vaughn and Bert out of KMBT, or Dana Melancon, out of Fox?, or Wade Hampton, out of channel 7 in Lake Charles. Rob Robbin is now on Gator 99.5 instead of 96.1. Rob was the old stand by back in the day.
Hey Seawall. Not familiar with the Lake Charles crew or Robins. But Have you seen the latest EURO? It is crazy for our area and ends up on top of us. Keeps it off shore of TX keeping SW LA, TX and part of mexico under near constant thirty + knot winds the entire run. Then moves onshore around GAL, then NE to SW LA. First model i've seen landfall. Lol Talk about a bumpy ride!




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Quoting nodramaman1022:
There is definite signartures that have this area in the concerned realm I wish Texas to get the rain that htey need, but htis my be a system to the sklight North of the anticipated area. Iwishcast it to be a good rain, minimal wind event for the Texas region but realily is amoderate risk to the gulf region at best IMHO


Ummm... Well said?
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2001. Seawall
When you're in SE TX, or SW LA, who is your "Go To" guy for the weather? Is it Kerry Cooper and Greg Boswick of KFDM, or Patrick Vaughn and Bert out of KMBT, or Dana Melancon, out of Fox?, or Wade Hampton, out of channel 7 in Lake Charles. Rob Robbin is now on Gator 99.5 instead of 96.1. Rob was the old stand by back in the day.
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Wow, the Texas Dry just sucks that thing up, doesn't it? It might take a major to bust that pattern.
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Quoting GetReal:


The pieces are coming together tonight in the extreme NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel.

Why has this area not been designated an invert yet, or has it and I missed it???

In the 2am advisory it's listed as a disorganized tropical wave that they expect to develop. It just isn't there yet. Link
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Here ya go guys...

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Quoting lordhuracan01:
31-08-1979 Hurricane David



when I was born!!!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!! Man, I'm old. Lol.

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31-08-1979 Hurricane David



when I was born!!!!
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Quoting nodramaman1022:
There is definite signartures that have this area in the concerned realm I wish Texas to get the rain that htey need, but htis my be a system to the sklight North of the anticipated area. Iwishcast it to be a good rain, minimal wind event for the Texas region but realily is amoderate risk to the gulf region at best IMHO
Yeah, I think I agree with all of that. :)
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Out 72hrs, EURO spinning it up somewhat off suth TX shore. Looks to be showing that Rex block pattern with the bridged high with the weakness over TX/LA. Can't post or link the site.
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There is definite signartures that have this area in the concerned realm I wish Texas to get the rain that htey need, but htis my be a system to the sklight North of the anticipated area. Iwishcast it to be a good rain, minimal wind event for the Texas region but realily is amoderate risk to the gulf region at best IMHO
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Quoting GetReal:


The pieces are coming together tonight in the extreme NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel.

Why has this area not been designated an invert yet, or has it and I missed it???
I don't see an invest listed on the site where I usually look. But I've been out all day so haven't seen a sat loop yet.
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plenty of time toduck and run, but the models are not in agreeance for the path or the intensty to follow. Very concerning though with the present climatology i spelled it wrong
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Have one odd Question seeing we have a little relax moment, does anyone fly using Microsoft Flight Simulator -X-?

Been doing some test flights using my capt Sims Hurc bird and two other programs from HiFi called 'Active Sky -X-' and 'X-Graphics'. and I have to say so far I am pretty well impressed.

tonight I had to work my way up through TS kat from 5k to just under 31 to get a decent eye shot that opened for a while before it closed, yes it was a rather nice ride.

For the ones who are interested you can set a date back til 2010 that you know -x- cain was ...where, or about where and take off from the nearest location...and go hunt for it.

how they do it I am clueless but how ever they managed to show this current storm, same thing with Irene also, Flew in 1's and 2's with the hurc I am hoping Kat goes to a three or better just to see how I manage it.

My hat goes off to the Hunters, totally 100% work all the time on the ride in..and out.
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We are in for a tough month of Septemeber loking at the current patterns and the statistical facts for these patterns
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Quoting nodramaman1022:


Tis can be a stay at home and duck sytem

Looks like it'll have to be. Don't look like there's time to run by time this thing approaches. If it does come here, locals say it will be sitting off our coast closest approach Saturday.

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not at all I agre with your synopis of the current facts
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1986. jpsb
After 3 days of listening to Leecasting I am (sadly) giving up on Lee.
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1985. GetReal


The pieces are coming together tonight in the extreme NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel.

Why has this area not been designated an invert yet, or has it and I missed it???
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
The track is questionable but well supported by the model guidance this is going to be a wait and see situation everyone should be gaurded
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
148 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC

...UPR LOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: A NON-NAM/00Z CMC SOLN

IN A REGION THE NHC CURRENTLY ADVERTISES A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...UPR ENERGY EMANATING FROM NEARBY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RISE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN GULF
WATERS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE EMPHATIC IN BRINGING A FAIRLY
POTENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTLINE. BY
03/0000Z...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM BRING A SUB-1000 MB LOW
CENTER TOWARD THE TX/LA BORDER WHILE THE 00Z/18Z NAM HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE MUCH STRONGER SOLN POSED BY THE 12Z RUN. ON THE
CONTRARY...THE GFS WHICH MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH THE INTENSITY OF
THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH ITS RECENT RUNS STILL ADVERTISE A 1004 MB LOW
IN THE NORTH-CNTRL GULF OF MX. WHILE THE PLACEMENT HAS VARIED...IT
SEEMS TO CONSISTENTLY RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE NAM.

OVERALL...THE GENERAL IDEA OF A DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE NRN GULF
OF MX IS THERE AMONG THE MODELS...ITS PLACEMENT IS A DIFFERENT
STORY. THE 00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED TO BE THE MOST OUTLYING SOLN
AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH THE 00Z CMC HAS JOINED WITH A CYCLONE 7 MB
DEEPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. GIVEN A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY...IT IS HARD TO TRUST THESE STRONGER MODELS. SO A
NON-NAM/00Z CMC SOLN WILL BE CHOSEN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: LOW


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well, nite all. Check back in tomorrow, so we can continue our crazy ride. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

84HRS as long as the NAM goes out. I can't tell how strong it is though. One thing about models, they are less accurate predicting strength than direction. We might be in for a heck of a ride.


Tis can be a stay at home and duck sytem
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


already has been :)

Probably will be until it develops and we can get a track for it.
Lol. Ya got a point.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:
Our local weather guy said if a tropical storm forms in the GOM, it will suck up any chance of precip and dump it on Florida.

Lol. Ours said the same about TX. Guess we'll see.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

84HRS as long as the NAM goes out. I can't tell how strong it is though. One thing about models, they are less accurate predicting strength than direction. We might be in for a heck of a ride.


already has been :)

Probably will be until it develops and we can get a track for it.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


what hour and how strong? Although I know this isn't set in stone.
84HRS as long as the NAM goes out. I can't tell how strong it is though. One thing about models, they are less accurate predicting strength than direction. We might be in for a heck of a ride.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Little farther south and much stronger but at the same time. CMC is notorious for bombing things out. So hopefully the case here. The EURO will tell the tale I guess.






Thanks for the picture. :)

Yeah, we don't don't need a major, just good rains.
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Our local weather guy said if a tropical storm forms in the GOM, it will suck up any chance of precip and dump it on Florida.
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Little farther south and much stronger but at the same time. CMC is notorious for bombing things out. So hopefully the case here. The EURO will tell the tale I guess.




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Quoting nofailsafe:


Link go click on submit, and then FWD on the next page. See if that works for ya.


not sure why, still can't view.
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Have a great night, everyone!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
FWIW the nam and nogaps has the storm.lee? basially over TX/LA ish at the same hour.




what hour and how strong? Although I know this isn't set in stone.
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Hilary is likely to form in the EPAC and be a significant rain-maker all along the Mexican coastline including Baja California.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...
MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

Atlantic area is status-quot for now - 10%.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300

Quoting 7544:
cmc things that make u go hmmmmmmmmmmmmminteresting new run
Link
Yep didnt check the hour but mirrors nogaps and nam
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1968. 7544
Quoting TexasHurricane:


all I get is an error. What is it showing?
xed

fixed
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Quoting nofailsafe:


Link go click on submit, and then FWD on the next page. See if that works for ya.


Ok, I'm too tired. night all.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


all I get is an error. What is it showing?


Link go click on submit, and then FWD on the next page. See if that works for ya.
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FWIW the nam and nogaps has the storm.lee? basially over TX/LA ish at the same hour.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.