Irene's 1-in-100 year rains trigger deadly flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011

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Hurricane Irene is gone, but the huge hurricane's torrential rains have unleashed one of the Northeast's greatest flood disasters. Videos of rampaging rivers in Vermont, New York State, New Jersey, and surrounding states attest to the extreme nature of the great deluge Hurricane Irene brought. Numerous rivers and creeks throughout the Northeast crested above their highest flood stages on record over the past 24 hours. The previous records were mostly set during some of the great hurricanes of 50 - 60 years ago--Hazel of 1954, Connie and Diane of 1955, and Donna of 1960. Vermont, where 3 - 7 inches of rain fell in just twelve hours, was particularly hard-hit. Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. In northern New Jersey and Southeast New York, where soils were already saturated from the region's wettest August on record even before Irene arrived, record flooding was the norm. According to imagery from metstat.com, Irene's rains were a 1-in-100 year event for portions of eight states.


Figure 1. Water levels on Vermont's Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. Image credit: USGS.

Here are a few of the rivers in the Northeast that set all-time flood height records over the past 24 hours, which I found using our wundermap with the USGS rivers layers turned on:

Mettawee River, Middle Granville, NY
Hoosic River, North Bennington, VT
Saxton River, Saxtons RIver, VT
Schoharie Creek, Gilboa, NY
Esopus Creek, Coldbrook, NY
Passaic River, Millington, NJ
Rockaway River, Boonton, NJ
Pompton River, Pompton Plains, NJ
Millstone RIver, Blackwells Mills, NJ
Assunpink Creek, Trenton, NJ

And here are the unofficial maximum 24-hour rainfall amounts each state received from Irene, as compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

North Carolina: 14.00" Bunyan
Virginia: 12.52" Ft. Eustis
Maryland: 12.96" Plum Point
Delaware: 8.50" Federalsburg
Pennsylvania: 8.00" Goldsboro
New Jersey: 10.20" Wayne
New York: 11.48" Tuxedo Park
Connecticut: 8.70" Burlington
Massachusetts: 9.10" Savoy
Vermont: 7.60" Walden
New Hampshire: 6.09" 5SE Sandwich
Rhode Island: 5.37" Warren
Maine: 6.11" Phillips

Newark, NJ broke its all-time 24-hour precip record with a total of 8.92" (8/27-28)--old record 7.84" on 8/27-28/1971. Also, New York City, Philadelphia, and Newark now have August 2011 as their rainiest month in recorded history. Overall damages from Irene could range from $5 billion to $10 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis, a risk assessment firm that specializes in natural disaster impact. This would put Irene between 13th and 24th place on the list of the most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. Irene is very likely to have its name retired. The multi-billion dollar price tag from Irene puts the year 2011 in first place for the greatest number of billion-dollar disasters in one year, ten. The previous record was nine such disasters, set in 2008.

Irene cuts though barrier island, isolates North Carolina's Outer Banks
Irene's large surge surge and pounding waves breached North Carolina's Pea Island in two places Sunday, cutting U.S. Highway 12 and isolating the Outer Banks from the rest of the world. According to Dr. Rob Young of Western Carolina University, Irene did little damage to the ocean-front homes along North Carolina's Outer Banks, but there was significant soundside flooding impacting many areas of Duck, Kitty Hawk, Collington Village, and Roanoke Island. The $30-plus million dollar beach nourishment project at Nags Head survived the storm, although there has been some loss of sand along the beach.


Figure 2. Hurricane Irene's storm surge and winds carved two new channels through Pea Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks. This cut, near the town of Rodanthe, is the smaller of the two cuts. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland will need to be re-built across these two cuts. Image credit: Western Carolina University.

Tropical Depression 12
Tropical Depression Twelve formed this morning from a strong tropical wave that had moved off the coast of Africa. TD 12 is undergoing some moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong easterly winds, which is keeping most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity limited to the west aide. This shear should relax as TD 12 pulls away from Africa, and allow the storm to become Tropical Storm Katia. Ironically, today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the Gulf Coast, and Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina after that name was retired. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada might be the only land area threatened by TD 12, but it is too early to be confident of this.


Figure 3. Tropical Depression Twelve at 8:10 am EDT August 29, 2011, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

A break in Texas' drought coming
One other area we need to watch later this week is the Gulf of Mexico. A significant shift in the atmospheric circulation is predicted for the region, with the ridge of high pressure that has brought Texas its record heat and drought predicted to shift eastwards and allow a flow of moist, tropical air into the state. A low pressure region is forecast to develop in the Gulf near the coast of Texas on Wednesday or Thursday, and this low will need to be watched for tropical development. The shift in the large scale weather pattern does not signal a permanent end to the Texas drought, but it should bring welcome rains and cooler temperatures to the Lone Star state beginning on Thursday. This will be a relief to the residents of Austin, where the temperature topped out at 112°F yesterday--the hottest day in Austin's recorded history, tied with September 5, 2000. By Labor Day, hot and dry weather will settle back in over the state, but the new ridge of high pressure will be weaker, and temperatures will not be as hot as this week's.

Jeff Masters

Tuttletown Gristmill (dragonfly88)
Tuttltown Gristmill looking South down the Plattekill.
Tuttletown Gristmill
Bad Break (LarryT)
Closeup
Bad Break

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Quoting quakeman55:

MS and AL are MUCH better prepared to deal with a hurricane than New England is. Perhaps that's the reason for the media "overhyping" the storm.


I lived in Minnesota for 10 years and no matter how well we were prepared for snow storms we still had accidents and fatalities. And you can't prepare for a tree falling on you.
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Quoting weatherjr:
Some peopple fears hurricane. BUT the real BEAST is our corrupted society, which do not obey human rules (much less obey GOD rules). Criminality, lack of human justice... I think natural disasters like hurricanes and earthwakes can put our society in the right way, after all... (great contribution of hurricanes, for instance, apart from redistribute and exchange energy)


see ya wack-o poof
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 292033
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WILL LESSEN WITHIN A DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO COMMENCE SOON. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR ABOUT 280/12. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING FROM
THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.2N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.9N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.9N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 14.0N 38.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting quakeman55:

MS and AL are MUCH better prepared to deal with a hurricane than New England is. Perhaps that's the reason for the media "overhyping" the storm.


We'll see how they handle after Labor day when TD 12 then hurricane comes barreling at them again...
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Still 1,500 people without power in my county, Pender county. I wonder if they will cancel school again tomorrow, or at least delay it.

Probably not...
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Still a tropical depression...

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 28.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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I think Grandpato4 is the handle, or was it to2? He was going to Raleigh and maybe they stayed there until power and roadways are restored.
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Last word from me on Irene - some of you are sinckingly gloating over the fact she did as much damage and killed as many people as she did only because it makes you feel superior to those of us who were hoping for less. It's a sick and twisted prideful game you're playing and I for one am tired of it.

But hey, you were right, I was wrong, you win. Happy?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


wasnt his handle Granpado?


grandpato4
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Quoting InTheCone:
Don't know if this has been put up, but here is the ECMWF @ 240...


Ouch.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
According to a post in the New York Times, Irene definitely lived up to the hype.


I just read that. Thanks, it's excellent. Nate Silver is one of the best number-crunchers around. And for those interested, the article includes a table of relative costs of hurricanes hitting the US since 1980, adjusted for inflation and increased wealth.
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The GFDL, HWRF, ICON, IVCN, and SHIPS model all come to an agreement at 100-110 knots in 132 hours for Twelve. That would make it a Category 3 hurricane.

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Quoting jascott1967:


Would yáll give it a rest already? I was one of the people who said the media overhyped the storm but I never said it was a nothing storm. Anyone who watched CNN, Fox or the Weather Channel can tell you they were making Irene out to be apacolyptic and it was only because of where it was headed. If it had been going towards MS, Alabama, anywhere other than New Orleans, it would have gotten maybe a third of the national media attention Irene received, and you know that's true.

MS and AL are MUCH better prepared to deal with a hurricane than New England is. Perhaps that's the reason for the media "overhyping" the storm.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Looks like there are some rain clouds moving to the south from NE Texas..
Sounds lovely!  :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting P451:


Yeah, the nothing storm, has killed 28 and caused 11B in damage and climbing.

Link to Bloomberg State by State damage estimates article.


There's even some people around here where I am who are just laughing at the storm. You tell them what it has done and is still doing and they give you a deer in headlight look and then continue to laugh it off. I honestly don't get that.

Hell, two numbskulls died in this very town here, although from their own stupidity.

Some of the same people still without power in this town, with streets blocked from leftover tree damage, are the ones laughing it off.

Honestly I will never understand.....

I put up a blog entry showing the damage we had here, and video of the same river the two dummies tried to boat down last night.

It wasn't much damage, it was worse in some spots I hear though. What I do know is even just another 10mph in winds and it's a very different story.


Would yáll give it a rest already? I was one of the people who said the media overhyped the storm but I never said it was a nothing storm. Anyone who watched CNN, Fox or the Weather Channel can tell you they were making Irene out to be apacolyptic and it was only because of where it was headed. If it had been going towards MS, Alabama, anywhere other than New Orleans, it would have gotten maybe a third of the national media attention Irene received, and you know that's true.
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Day 6 brings the low to here. Day 7 to the south ala ECMWF. with a front dipping down. I am confused. Ah well. Par for the course for me. :)


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
I'm curious as to why the models didn't pick up so much on the dry air/shear that affected the outcome of Irene's projected intensity.
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Quoting FtMyersBuc:
Has anyone heard from Granpa?


wasnt his handle Granpado?
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Quoting bassis:


God gave us freewill, some use better judgement than others. I have a hard time understanding why some would want to risk it. Even the pro storm chasers know when to run


This is part of Natural Selection. Idiots are dying to get out of the gene pool
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Quoting FtMyersBuc:
Has anyone heard from Granpa?


I have not, not since before the storm anyways. Hope he is okay...He probably doesn't have any power right now.
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That storms developing a hook echo
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Has anyone heard from Granpa?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NCC015-091-292030-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0063.110829T2000Z-110829T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BERTIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AHOSKIE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARRELLSVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE NEWSOME
STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7675 3619 7679 3626 7700 3635 7694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 292DEG 15KT 3628 7691

$$

SCALORA






Yeah, I'm no where near that warning, but I am under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Honestly wasn't paying any attention until The Weather Channel showed it, lol.
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AL, 12, 2011082918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 279W, 30, 1008, TD


8/29/2011 6:26:00 PM
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB still at T1.5. An upgrade wouldn't surprise me though...despite the meager convection in the southern quadrant.

AL, 12, 201108291745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 990N, 2790W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, VI, 5, 1520 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,


Wouldn't expect them to do that...Okay, maybe they will upgrade at 5PM, lol.
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Sigh. Can't tell if this is a good or bad thing bout no support for the 12z Euro run. But the rst sounds interesting. The whole discussion is too long to post but may be interesting to y'all.

Dang it! Can't link again!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscu ssions.php?disc=pmdepd

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011


2Z UPDATE... THE ECMWF HAS MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT
AMONG LATEST SOLNS BY TRENDING FASTER WITH MOST MID-LATITUDE
FEATURES FROM WRN NOAM INTO THE WRN ATLC. EWD TREND OVER THE WRN
ATLC IS LESS EXTREME THAN UPSTREAM BUT COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE. SO FAR THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FROM OTHER
GUIDANCE TO GIVE MUCH WEIGHTING TO THE 12Z ECMWF SCENARIO...
ESPECIALLY ITS DEEP HUDSON BAY SFC LOW DURING FRI-SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH WRN GULF LOW PRESSURE.
ON THE OTHER HAND THE 12Z GFS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW WITH THE
WAVE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE FCST.




THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST FOR DAYS 3-7 THU-MON STARTED WITH A NEARLY
EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN... TO
EMPHASIZE THE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT WHILE REFLECTING AN
INTERMEDIATE APPROACH WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE DETAILS ARE INVOLVED.
12Z SOLNS AS A WHOLE SUGGEST SOME MINOR DETAILS THAT CAN BE
ADJUSTED FOR TO SOME DEGREE DAYS 3-6 BUT CONTINUITY
CHANGES/PERSISTENT SPREAD RECOMMEND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE.


POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALLY HVY RNFL OVER AND INLAND FROM
THE WRN-CNTRL GULF COAST... IN ASSOC WITH THE COMBINATION OF
ILL-DEFINED MID LVL ENERGY OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
MODERATE THOUGH FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW LVL GULF INFLOW AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE WRN GULF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE EXPECT TWO COLD
FRONTS TO TRACK SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING/MORE WAVY
FRONT. THIS FIRST FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH GULF COAST/LOWER MS VLY
MOISTURE BY SUN-MON. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VLY/GRTLKS SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST CHANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE PERIOD... WITH ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS
LATE THIS WEEK TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE A TREND TOWARD GREATER COVERAGE OF A WRN RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND NRN ROCKIES.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting P451:


Yeah, the nothing storm, has killed 28 and caused 11B in damage and climbing.

Link to Bloomberg State by State damage estimates article.


There's even some people around here where I am who are just laughing at the storm. You tell them what it has done and is still doing and they give you a deer in headlight look and then continue to laugh it off. I honestly don't get that.

Hell, two numbskulls died in this very town here, although from their own stupidity.

Some of the same people still without power in this town, with streets blocked from leftover tree damage, are the ones laughing it off.

Honestly I will never understand.....

I put up a blog entry showing the damage we had here, and video of the same river the two dummies tried to boat down last night.

It wasn't much damage, it was worse in some spots I hear though. What I do know is even just another 10mph in winds and it's a very different story.


God gave us freewill, some use better judgement than others. I have a hard time understanding why some would want to risk it. Even the pro storm chasers know when to run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NCC015-091-292030-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0063.110829T2000Z-110829T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BERTIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AHOSKIE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARRELLSVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE NEWSOME
STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7675 3619 7679 3626 7700 3635 7694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 292DEG 15KT 3628 7691

$$

SCALORA




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Quoting CybrTeddy:
T# from the TAFB and SAB have gone up to both 2.0. ADT 2.7. 'Could' see an upgrade to Katia at 5 or 11 tonight.
TAFB still at T1.5. An upgrade wouldn't surprise me though...despite the meager convection in the southern quadrant.

AL, 12, 201108291745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 990N, 2790W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, VI, 5, 1520 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,
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Don't know if this has been put up, but here is the ECMWF @ 240...

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Irene left her footprint on the SSTs.

SST anomaly for Aug 25th and Aug 29th:
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Tropical Depression #12 continues to fire deep convection, mainly on its western semicircle, thanks to 10-20 knots of Easterly shear. However, as noted by the CIMSS Upper Level Winds map, it appears an anticyclone may be trying to set up atop the depression. If I were the National Hurricane Center, I would keep the initial intensity at 30 knots. It does appear likely that Tropical Depression 12 will become Katia over the next 24 hours, but probably not today, unless they declare it at 11PM. We shall see how it looks later on...

Ahead of Tropical Depression 12, a very favorable environment lies. Wind shear is expected to be 10 knots or less, and thanks to Hurricane Irene and Tropical Depression 10, there is little dry air to speak of. Because of the Easterly shear aforementioned, only slow strengthening should be expected for the next 3-4 days. However, as shear becomes less and less of a problem, more gradual, to even rapid, strengthening should begin. At this time, I believe Twelve should reach hurricane status on Thursday or Friday, and continue strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane Friday or Early Saturday. At that time, the storm should still be located several hundred miles away from the Lesser Antilles, probably around 55W 17N. By Sunday, it is possible we could be talking about Major Hurricane Katia, just north of the Lesser Antilles.

Shortwave:



Upper Level Winds:

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18z intensity consensus:

AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 0, 0N, 0W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 12, 0N, 0W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 24, 0N, 0W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 36, 0N, 0W, 53, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 48, 0N, 0W, 63, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 60, 0N, 0W, 72, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 72, 0N, 0W, 81, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 84, 0N, 0W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 96, 0N, 0W, 94, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 108, 0N, 0W, 96, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 120, 0N, 0W, 99, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011082918, 03, IVCN, 132, 0N, 0W, 110, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Outflow from the storm to the North and South ran into each other right over my head.
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540. DFWjc
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Yeah I noticed that too. If the latest EURO pans out TX may not get anything at all.


Looks like there are some rain clouds moving to the south from NE Texas..
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Quoting TerraNova:
Talas is one odd looking storm...



Man there is a ton of moisture in the air over there!!!
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


I guess some do, but they haven't ever been called as such.

Robert Simpson said that winds over 155MPH will cause major damage to most structures, so cat 6 is not needed. I guess that the cat 1-5 hurricane scale will remain just as is.
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T# from the TAFB and SAB have gone up to both 2.0. ADT 2.7. 'Could' see an upgrade to Katia at 5 or 11 tonight.
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536. Tijer
Quoting mcluvincane:


Someone said we couldn't post images from this site. Well it works for me.

This is the 12Z ECMWF at 240


Clear your cache and check again. Remote linking not allowed.
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Quoting Joshfsu123:
It always comes down to timing - TD 12 looks like it could be a long term threat but as usual, it will come down to the TROF and High Pressure systems.

WAY, WAY too early to get concerned about it - check back after Labor Day and then we will start to get a better picture.


What if you're planning to head to Myrtle Beach on Labor Day and stay a week? I can't wait until after I get down there to be concerned. I guess I will have to wait until this weekend to know whether I'll need to postpone my trip. I just hope these early predictions about curving north are correct.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


So.. close to the Northern Islands.
Which means NE caribbean should be on the "Crow nest", watching eastward, since it could be a NE caribbean hurricane in time, as climatology says. Is this time of the year for us islanders, when historically we been hit by the worst CV monsters storms.
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Will Texas be the next target for a Hurricane?
from AccuWeather.com

Link
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting mcluvincane:


Someone said we couldn't post images from this site. Well it works for me.

This is the 12Z ECMWF at 240


You may think it worked for you, but it shows the "remote linking not allowed" black box for the rest of us.
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Talas is one odd looking storm...

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has long this stays weak this wont go out too sea
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Quoting 69Viking:


I see it no problem AND I'm using IE!


You will see it on the blog if you have viewed the image elsewhere.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey guys, here's the damage from the 'Bonnie' of the NE. So much for being all hype as a lot of the nitwits on here where thinking yesterday. Damage totals in the US could be 7 billion, damage to the Caribbean 3 billion. 11 billion USD, or the 8th most destructive hurricane in the Atlantic.




There's more out there, and will be available as the days go on. Sure, it wasn't a 100 billion dollar disaster, but it was certainly much more destructive than anything the US has been hit by since Ike. Full extent of the damage is not yet known.

Irene will almost certainly be retired in 2012.
This reminds me of the old adage, "watch what you wish for". Haven't everyone been wishing for more "jobs" and an increase in spending. Well, here it is, Hurricane recovery.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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