Irene's 1-in-100 year rains trigger deadly flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011

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Hurricane Irene is gone, but the huge hurricane's torrential rains have unleashed one of the Northeast's greatest flood disasters. Videos of rampaging rivers in Vermont, New York State, New Jersey, and surrounding states attest to the extreme nature of the great deluge Hurricane Irene brought. Numerous rivers and creeks throughout the Northeast crested above their highest flood stages on record over the past 24 hours. The previous records were mostly set during some of the great hurricanes of 50 - 60 years ago--Hazel of 1954, Connie and Diane of 1955, and Donna of 1960. Vermont, where 3 - 7 inches of rain fell in just twelve hours, was particularly hard-hit. Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. In northern New Jersey and Southeast New York, where soils were already saturated from the region's wettest August on record even before Irene arrived, record flooding was the norm. According to imagery from metstat.com, Irene's rains were a 1-in-100 year event for portions of eight states.


Figure 1. Water levels on Vermont's Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. Image credit: USGS.

Here are a few of the rivers in the Northeast that set all-time flood height records over the past 24 hours, which I found using our wundermap with the USGS rivers layers turned on:

Mettawee River, Middle Granville, NY
Hoosic River, North Bennington, VT
Saxton River, Saxtons RIver, VT
Schoharie Creek, Gilboa, NY
Esopus Creek, Coldbrook, NY
Passaic River, Millington, NJ
Rockaway River, Boonton, NJ
Pompton River, Pompton Plains, NJ
Millstone RIver, Blackwells Mills, NJ
Assunpink Creek, Trenton, NJ

And here are the unofficial maximum 24-hour rainfall amounts each state received from Irene, as compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

North Carolina: 14.00" Bunyan
Virginia: 12.52" Ft. Eustis
Maryland: 12.96" Plum Point
Delaware: 8.50" Federalsburg
Pennsylvania: 8.00" Goldsboro
New Jersey: 10.20" Wayne
New York: 11.48" Tuxedo Park
Connecticut: 8.70" Burlington
Massachusetts: 9.10" Savoy
Vermont: 7.60" Walden
New Hampshire: 6.09" 5SE Sandwich
Rhode Island: 5.37" Warren
Maine: 6.11" Phillips

Newark, NJ broke its all-time 24-hour precip record with a total of 8.92" (8/27-28)--old record 7.84" on 8/27-28/1971. Also, New York City, Philadelphia, and Newark now have August 2011 as their rainiest month in recorded history. Overall damages from Irene could range from $5 billion to $10 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis, a risk assessment firm that specializes in natural disaster impact. This would put Irene between 13th and 24th place on the list of the most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. Irene is very likely to have its name retired. The multi-billion dollar price tag from Irene puts the year 2011 in first place for the greatest number of billion-dollar disasters in one year, ten. The previous record was nine such disasters, set in 2008.

Irene cuts though barrier island, isolates North Carolina's Outer Banks
Irene's large surge surge and pounding waves breached North Carolina's Pea Island in two places Sunday, cutting U.S. Highway 12 and isolating the Outer Banks from the rest of the world. According to Dr. Rob Young of Western Carolina University, Irene did little damage to the ocean-front homes along North Carolina's Outer Banks, but there was significant soundside flooding impacting many areas of Duck, Kitty Hawk, Collington Village, and Roanoke Island. The $30-plus million dollar beach nourishment project at Nags Head survived the storm, although there has been some loss of sand along the beach.


Figure 2. Hurricane Irene's storm surge and winds carved two new channels through Pea Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks. This cut, near the town of Rodanthe, is the smaller of the two cuts. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland will need to be re-built across these two cuts. Image credit: Western Carolina University.

Tropical Depression 12
Tropical Depression Twelve formed this morning from a strong tropical wave that had moved off the coast of Africa. TD 12 is undergoing some moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong easterly winds, which is keeping most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity limited to the west aide. This shear should relax as TD 12 pulls away from Africa, and allow the storm to become Tropical Storm Katia. Ironically, today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the Gulf Coast, and Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina after that name was retired. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada might be the only land area threatened by TD 12, but it is too early to be confident of this.


Figure 3. Tropical Depression Twelve at 8:10 am EDT August 29, 2011, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

A break in Texas' drought coming
One other area we need to watch later this week is the Gulf of Mexico. A significant shift in the atmospheric circulation is predicted for the region, with the ridge of high pressure that has brought Texas its record heat and drought predicted to shift eastwards and allow a flow of moist, tropical air into the state. A low pressure region is forecast to develop in the Gulf near the coast of Texas on Wednesday or Thursday, and this low will need to be watched for tropical development. The shift in the large scale weather pattern does not signal a permanent end to the Texas drought, but it should bring welcome rains and cooler temperatures to the Lone Star state beginning on Thursday. This will be a relief to the residents of Austin, where the temperature topped out at 112°F yesterday--the hottest day in Austin's recorded history, tied with September 5, 2000. By Labor Day, hot and dry weather will settle back in over the state, but the new ridge of high pressure will be weaker, and temperatures will not be as hot as this week's.

Jeff Masters

Tuttletown Gristmill (dragonfly88)
Tuttltown Gristmill looking South down the Plattekill.
Tuttletown Gristmill
Bad Break (LarryT)
Closeup
Bad Break

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2676. portcharlotte
12:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2011
Looks more like the NE Gulf...no Houston


THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A
WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH IF SOMETHING
WERE TO FORM, ITS MOST PLAUSIBLE TRACK WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.




Quoting DavidHOUTX:


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2675. Trouper415
8:38 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
I have a question.

Is it easier for a high pressure sytem to stay high if the air is drier, as opposed to moisture. And can a low pressure system stay low if there is more moisture in the atmosphere at the time?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
2674. tropicfreak
5:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Katia:


I have to agree with you on that, wait, are we talking about the same thing here?


Where do you want to go??

So many good choices huh?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
2673. JBirdFireMedic
5:27 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
2672. aspectre
3:54 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
10.3n28.2w, 10.8n29.4w, 11.5n30.8w have been re-evaluated&altered for TD.12's_12pmGMT_ATCF
10.6n28.1w, 11.0n29.4w, 11.5n30.9w, 12.0n32.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 29August_12pmGMT and ending 30August_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicaStormKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Katia's travel-speed was []mph([]k/h) on a heading of []degrees([])
TS.Katia was headed toward passage over [],[] ~[]days[]hours from now

Copy&paste [coordinates] into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 29August_6amGMT)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2671. TBird78
3:47 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Someone posted about a weather station yesterday and I missed any responses. I still haven't decided which one to get. Any ideas?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
2670. Seastep
3:43 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
2669. Dennis8
3:43 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.


Something to watch...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2668. Seastep
3:43 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Nea.... you're up.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
2667. Dennis8
3:43 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Nobody here (unless i am missing something) has a degree in meteorology. The Doc does, so therefore he is the expert here. Everyone else is an "amateur" who do the best they can with the tools available. They may have good forecasts, but they don't have that sheet of paper (ie a college degree) I still have learned a lot from people on here regardless.


I do BUT that is not something I advertise.......
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2666. DavidHOUTX
3:42 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Dennis8:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
2665. Seastep
3:42 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Looks like it, kman.

Looks like she's ramping up much faster than forecast.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a cane in 12-24hrs.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
2663. NOLAmike
3:41 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
The discussion from NWS New Orleans this morning:

MARINE...MARINE FCST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND BECOME QUIET
INTERESTING. MOST OF THE RAW MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING AND DEVELOPING AN ACTUAL SFC LOW IN THE
WRN GULF. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION AND FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW BUT AT LEAST A
MAJORITY OF THE MDLS ARE NOW FCSTING IT. RIGHT NOW WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. IF THE GFS ACTUALLY VERIFIES
CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH WORSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WED
AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SERN CONUS. BY WED NIGHT AND INTO THU THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN.
WINDS WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE SE AND REMAIN OUT OF THIS DIRECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DEVELOP A SWELL ACROSS THE GULF. IN
ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AND BY FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT WE
COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THIS ON TOP OF A SWELL FROM THE SE COULD LEAD TO SIG SEA HGTS OF
9-11 FT AND A FEW WAVES POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LATER FCST. /CAB/
Member Since: August 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
2662. DavidHOUTX
3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Does anybody know why the storm in the Caribbean is not an invest yet? perhaps because there is not a LLC?
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
2661. kmanislander
3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Dennis8:


Thank you sir....from your part of the world to ours...many a vacation I have taken your way.


Come again soon :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2660. Dennis8
3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2659. kmanislander
3:39 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Katia appears to have relocated the center to 11.5N and 33.5 W on a heading of 280 to 285 degrees. Consolidation taking place quite quickly now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2658. Dennis8
3:37 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


The source of this possible system is the unsettled weather to the SW of Cayman where pressures in the Gulf of Honduras are fairly low now. This weather will probably migrate into the GOM. Obs at Roatan show winds out of the SW and a pressure of 1010 mbs which could be a sign of something trying to develop in this area.


Thank you sir....from your part of the world to ours...many a vacation I have taken your way.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2657. Dennis8
3:36 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
HOUSTON TEXAS CLIMATE...
EACH OF THE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES WILL RECORD THEIR WARMEST
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IN WEATHER HISTORY. IN OTHER
WORDS...NO MONTH HAS EVER BEEN WARMER.
THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION HAVE ENDURED AN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FOUR DAYS. 43
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2656. IceCoast
3:36 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Even if JB hypes too much he still knows his stuff.


Exactly, people who bash him are pretty clueless. Yeah, he can overhype stuff, he loves the tropics and weather just like we do. It gets him excited. He is a better forecaster then probably anyone on this blog with the exception of Dr. Masters.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
2655. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:36 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
18.88N/81.63W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2654. kmanislander
3:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Dennis8:
Houston HWO

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AS SOON AS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.


The source of this possible system is the unsettled weather to the SW of Cayman where pressures in the Gulf of Honduras are fairly low now. This weather will probably migrate into the GOM. Obs at Roatan show winds out of the SW and a pressure of 1010 mbs which could be a sign of something trying to develop in this area.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2653. Neapolitan
3:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting BDAwx:
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.

Believe it or not, in certain measurable ways, Irene was under-hyped by the media. But, yes, Irene is already the third most deadly tropical cyclone to strike the US since 1980, her insured and uninsured dollar losses could be close to $20 billion, more than 5 million customers are still without electricity, and she gave many parts of the northeast their heaviest rains in at least 100 years or more. IOW, Irene was to many the literal storm of the century; to accuse anyone of "overhype", then--with the possible exception of TV outlets that get excited over water skiing squirrels and discussing what Kim Kardashian is wearing--is plain wrong.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
2652. Dennis8
3:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

IT APPEARS
ANY MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW DEVELOPING AND SLOW MOVING
AND WILL IMPACT FORECASTS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2650. Grothar
3:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
2649. Dennis8
3:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011
WILL COMMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUESSES REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NW GULF LATER THIS AFTN. 47
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2648. Allyson00
3:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting MahFL:


Posting paid for stuff might be against terms and conditions and you could get fired....


As long as I don't post propietary data referring to a specific operation there's no problem. This is just general weather update for the area. Now if I were to post the username and login I might be in trouble. Thanks for the concern though!
Member Since: April 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2647. Grothar
3:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
2646. Vero1
3:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


well Joe did call the GOM storm potential before Irene even made landfall in NY...not saying I am a huge fan of his but you have to give credit where its due..yeah I know he calls a lot of NE storms but he still got Irene track right as well as Henry..
So did "StormTop".
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2645. reedzone
3:28 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Twinkster:



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there


Levi talks about the same thing with typhoon and USA Hurricanes. Not just Bastardi.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
2644. Grothar
3:27 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
2643. IceCoast
3:27 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting wxobsvps:
Nobody likes coming here anymore for fear of being banned.

Is this really the vision for the comments here on The Main Blog?

So many got so amped up on the Power to Report on "minus" that now the rich flavor that the blog had developed over the years is stripped away.

The self-righteous killed this place, one minus at a time. Failure to comprehend how to Ignore, rather than Report, is really the only offense worthy of excommunication from the Blog.

In the immortal words of the Grand Freakin Poobah of the Blog:

pfffft,,,..!


OHH NO! The fear of being banned on a weather blog! I see your point(just ignore the morons), but if people are actually in fear they are going to be banned here, they should probably find better use of there time.

It's not like it isn't extremely easy to circumvent a ban here. Why do you think the blog gets infested by the same few trolls on a daily basis.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
2642. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:27 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
T.C.F.W.
012/TS/K/CX
MARK
11.38N/34.03W



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2641. Dennis8
3:26 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Houston HWO

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AS SOON AS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
2640. yesterway
3:25 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting BDAwx:
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.


Good commentary...thank you
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
2639. ncstorm
3:25 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Twinkster:



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there


well Joe did call the GOM storm potential before Irene even made landfall in NY...not saying I am a huge fan of his but you have to give credit where its due..yeah I know he calls a lot of NE storms but he still got Irene track right as well as Henry..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
2638. BDAwx
3:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 545
2637. ncstorm
3:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Yup. I watch his videos every day.


I just finish watching it myself.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
2636. txag91met
3:21 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
NAM is too fast developing this thing (LEE GULF)...ignore...lean on the more reliable Euro model...

GFS next.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 751
2635. yesterway
3:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good question, they took rain out of our forecast and instead of 110 to 112 it will be 100 to 102? Is that really improvement?


I feel ya...
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
2633. bohonkweatherman
3:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it gonna rain or not?! damn models

Good question, they took rain out of our forecast and instead of 110 to 112 it will be 100 to 102? Is that really improvement?
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
2632. Twinkster
3:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:
I know some people dont care for accuweather but I like Henry Margusity and he got Irene's track right..

Lee Should Form in the Gulf. Katia, I Hope, is Wide Right
Aug 30, 2011; 8:35 AM ET

Disco

1. Lee - The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico, and I expect that we will have Lee by the end of the Labor Day weekend. I think NAM may be too fast on the development while the GFS and Euro are slower. The landfall of the storm I am unsure of just yet. I can see Lee just sitting around the Gulf next week then eventually getting pulled north. However, that will really depend on a lot of factors that will affect Katia as well. The problem I see, you can't have a storm going north into the Tennessee Valley per the GFS and have a hurricane hit the East coast at the same time. That just not happen. Stop here and go below to Katia.

2. Katia - The key to Katia hitting the East coast will be the trough that might come into the East. I say might because an old friend of mine would always talk about the typhoon rule where if a typhoon recurves to the northeast in the Pacific, watch for a trough in the eastern U.S. 10 days later. Right now, it does not appear the typhoon will recurve so no trough in the East, thus there is room for Katia to come west toward the coast.

Now that you are totally confused, one of two things will happen. Lee will form and go into southern Texas and Katia will threaten the East coast, or the trough will come in, pick up Lee and take the storm into the Tennessee Valley while Katia stays out in the Atlantic and totally misses the East coast.



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
2631. IceCoast
3:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Still 2.5 million without power and ongoing flooding from Irene if the blog still cares
Link

NEWFANE, Vt. (AP) — Flooding isolated entire towns in Vermont and New York, some communities warily watched swollen rivers and more than 2.5 million people from North Carolina to Maine lacked electricity Tuesday, three days after Hurricane Irene churned up the Eastern Seaboard.
The storm has been blamed for at least 40 deaths in 11 states.

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
2630. Orcasystems
3:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







GW Busted by CERN
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
2629. kmanislander
3:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah. Not sure why NHC went contrary to ASCAT. Can't imagine it went NNW in less than four hours.



EDIT: NNW. Directionally challenged this AM.


I looked at that pass and wondered about that myself but what we really need is an updated microwave pass and who knows when that will show up on the Navy site.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2627. kmanislander
3:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi Kman --


Hi there. We are getting into the heart of the season now and the signs for that are all out there.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2626. SWLACajun
3:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Heard the same
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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