Irene's 1-in-100 year rains trigger deadly flooding
Hurricane Irene is gone, but the huge hurricane's torrential rains have unleashed one of the Northeast's greatest flood disasters. Videos of rampaging rivers in Vermont, New York State, New Jersey, and surrounding states attest to the extreme nature of the great deluge Hurricane Irene brought. Numerous rivers and creeks throughout the Northeast crested above their highest flood stages on record over the past 24 hours. The previous records were mostly set during some of the great hurricanes of 50 - 60 years ago--Hazel of 1954, Connie and Diane of 1955, and Donna of 1960. Vermont, where 3 - 7 inches of rain fell in just twelve hours, was particularly hard-hit. Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. In northern New Jersey and Southeast New York, where soils were already saturated from the region's wettest August on record even before Irene arrived, record flooding was the norm. According to imagery from metstat.com, Irene's rains were a 1-in-100 year event for portions of eight states.
Figure 1. Water levels on Vermont's Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. Image credit: USGS.
Here are a few of the rivers in the Northeast that set all-time flood height records over the past 24 hours, which I found using our wundermap with the USGS rivers layers turned on:
Mettawee River, Middle Granville, NY
Hoosic River, North Bennington, VT
Saxton River, Saxtons RIver, VT
Schoharie Creek, Gilboa, NY
Esopus Creek, Coldbrook, NY
Passaic River, Millington, NJ
Rockaway River, Boonton, NJ
Pompton River, Pompton Plains, NJ
Millstone RIver, Blackwells Mills, NJ
Assunpink Creek, Trenton, NJ
And here are the unofficial maximum 24-hour rainfall amounts each state received from Irene, as compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:
North Carolina: 14.00" Bunyan
Virginia: 12.52" Ft. Eustis
Maryland: 12.96" Plum Point
Delaware: 8.50" Federalsburg
Pennsylvania: 8.00" Goldsboro
New Jersey: 10.20" Wayne
New York: 11.48" Tuxedo Park
Connecticut: 8.70" Burlington
Massachusetts: 9.10" Savoy
Vermont: 7.60" Walden
New Hampshire: 6.09" 5SE Sandwich
Rhode Island: 5.37" Warren
Maine: 6.11" Phillips
Newark, NJ broke its all-time 24-hour precip record with a total of 8.92" (8/27-28)--old record 7.84" on 8/27-28/1971. Also, New York City, Philadelphia, and Newark now have August 2011 as their rainiest month in recorded history. Overall damages from Irene could range from $5 billion to $10 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis, a risk assessment firm that specializes in natural disaster impact. This would put Irene between 13th and 24th place on the list of the most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. Irene is very likely to have its name retired. The multi-billion dollar price tag from Irene puts the year 2011 in first place for the greatest number of billion-dollar disasters in one year, ten. The previous record was nine such disasters, set in 2008.
Irene cuts though barrier island, isolates North Carolina's Outer Banks
Irene's large surge surge and pounding waves breached North Carolina's Pea Island in two places Sunday, cutting U.S. Highway 12 and isolating the Outer Banks from the rest of the world. According to Dr. Rob Young of Western Carolina University, Irene did little damage to the ocean-front homes along North Carolina's Outer Banks, but there was significant soundside flooding impacting many areas of Duck, Kitty Hawk, Collington Village, and Roanoke Island. The $30-plus million dollar beach nourishment project at Nags Head survived the storm, although there has been some loss of sand along the beach.
Figure 2. Hurricane Irene's storm surge and winds carved two new channels through Pea Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks. This cut, near the town of Rodanthe, is the smaller of the two cuts. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland will need to be re-built across these two cuts. Image credit: Western Carolina University.
Tropical Depression 12
Tropical Depression Twelve formed this morning from a strong tropical wave that had moved off the coast of Africa. TD 12 is undergoing some moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong easterly winds, which is keeping most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity limited to the west aide. This shear should relax as TD 12 pulls away from Africa, and allow the storm to become Tropical Storm Katia. Ironically, today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the Gulf Coast, and Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina after that name was retired. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada might be the only land area threatened by TD 12, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Figure 3. Tropical Depression Twelve at 8:10 am EDT August 29, 2011, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.
A break in Texas' drought coming
One other area we need to watch later this week is the Gulf of Mexico. A significant shift in the atmospheric circulation is predicted for the region, with the ridge of high pressure that has brought Texas its record heat and drought predicted to shift eastwards and allow a flow of moist, tropical air into the state. A low pressure region is forecast to develop in the Gulf near the coast of Texas on Wednesday or Thursday, and this low will need to be watched for tropical development. The shift in the large scale weather pattern does not signal a permanent end to the Texas drought, but it should bring welcome rains and cooler temperatures to the Lone Star state beginning on Thursday. This will be a relief to the residents of Austin, where the temperature topped out at 112°F yesterday--the hottest day in Austin's recorded history, tied with September 5, 2000. By Labor Day, hot and dry weather will settle back in over the state, but the new ridge of high pressure will be weaker, and temperatures will not be as hot as this week's.
Jeff Masters
Tuttltown Gristmill looking South down the Plattekill.
Reader Comments
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011
IT APPEARS
ANY MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW DEVELOPING AND SLOW MOVING
AND WILL IMPACT FORECASTS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
Believe it or not, in certain measurable ways, Irene was under-hyped by the media. But, yes, Irene is already the third most deadly tropical cyclone to strike the US since 1980, her insured and uninsured dollar losses could be close to $20 billion, more than 5 million customers are still without electricity, and she gave many parts of the northeast their heaviest rains in at least 100 years or more. IOW, Irene was to many the literal storm of the century; to accuse anyone of "overhype", then--with the possible exception of TV outlets that get excited over water skiing squirrels and discussing what Kim Kardashian is wearing--is plain wrong.
The source of this possible system is the unsettled weather to the SW of Cayman where pressures in the Gulf of Honduras are fairly low now. This weather will probably migrate into the GOM. Obs at Roatan show winds out of the SW and a pressure of 1010 mbs which could be a sign of something trying to develop in this area.
MARK
18.88N/81.63W
Exactly, people who bash him are pretty clueless. Yeah, he can overhype stuff, he loves the tropics and weather just like we do. It gets him excited. He is a better forecaster then probably anyone on this blog with the exception of Dr. Masters.
EACH OF THE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES WILL RECORD THEIR WARMEST
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IN WEATHER HISTORY. IN OTHER
WORDS...NO MONTH HAS EVER BEEN WARMER. THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION HAVE ENDURED AN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FOUR DAYS. 43
Thank you sir....from your part of the world to ours...many a vacation I have taken your way.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011
ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
Come again soon :-)
MARINE...MARINE FCST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND BECOME QUIET
INTERESTING. MOST OF THE RAW MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING AND DEVELOPING AN ACTUAL SFC LOW IN THE
WRN GULF. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION AND FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW BUT AT LEAST A
MAJORITY OF THE MDLS ARE NOW FCSTING IT. RIGHT NOW WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. IF THE GFS ACTUALLY VERIFIES
CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH WORSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WED
AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SERN CONUS. BY WED NIGHT AND INTO THU THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN.
WINDS WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE SE AND REMAIN OUT OF THIS DIRECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DEVELOP A SWELL ACROSS THE GULF. IN
ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AND BY FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT WE
COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THIS ON TOP OF A SWELL FROM THE SE COULD LEAD TO SIG SEA HGTS OF
9-11 FT AND A FEW WAVES POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LATER FCST. /CAB/
Looks like she's ramping up much faster than forecast.
It wouldn't surprise me to see a cane in 12-24hrs.
This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.
I do BUT that is not something I advertise.......
Something to watch...
10.6n28.1w, 11.0n29.4w, 11.5n30.9w, 12.0n32.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 29August_12pmGMT and ending 30August_12pmGMT
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicaStormKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Katia's travel-speed was []mph([]k/h) on a heading of []degrees([])
TS.Katia was headed toward passage over [],[] ~[]days[]hours from now
Copy&paste [coordinates] into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 29August_6amGMT)
Where do you want to go??
So many good choices huh?
Is it easier for a high pressure sytem to stay high if the air is drier, as opposed to moisture. And can a low pressure system stay low if there is more moisture in the atmosphere at the time?
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A
WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH IF SOMETHING
WERE TO FORM, ITS MOST PLAUSIBLE TRACK WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
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