Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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2851. zoomiami
3:49 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
New Blog
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
2850. WetBankGuy
6:27 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting Tijer:


NOLA was a man made disaster. From what I have seen, they have learned nothing. Thus, they will repeat it. Since then, my insurance has doubled, and I do not need/have flood. I will guess that thanks to Irene, it will double again. The first bill comes in October.


We have learned everything, the hard way. Its the politicians in the Congress and the Corps and people who make uninformed statements about New Orleans who have learned nothing.

Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
2849. islander101010
4:44 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
see we wont know for awhile the extent of the damage from irene hopefully the bridges and dams are not compromised
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
2847. Tijer
4:14 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.


Why drop the hype, when money and paychecks are involved! LMAO!
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
2846. MahFL
4:13 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
I co-worker just walked by and as he's a long time Floridian said "another one already, well I guess it's that time of year".
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3838
2845. jascott1967
4:13 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
As we are remembering Katrina today, let us not forget The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 next Thursday. Between 6-12 thousand souls perished in that storm and everytime I read Isaac's Storm I feel like I had gone through it myself. Truly heartbreaking.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
2844. bassis
4:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
I was wondering if Irene cooled the waters much.
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
2843. MississippiWx
4:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Then Katia or T.D 12 could pose a threat to the Carribean and the U.S?


It's hard to say at this point. The NAO theories aren't set in stone. Just because we have a neutral or slightly positive NAO doesn't mean we can't have one passing trough that takes it out to sea. If the NAO remains neutral to slightly positive, however, I believe the chances are higher. Also, a slightly negative NAO isn't terribly against landfalling storms in the U.S. either.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2842. hurtadomiami
4:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
2841. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
2840. rv1pop
4:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.
That has been my thought for a long time. This way there is no link back so when someone quotes a post, trying to find it is ..... worse than predicting Irene's track.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
2837. sarepa
4:07 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
New Blog
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
2836. washingtonian115
4:07 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


They were on last night.
I can never catch them.I've been on and off the blog.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2835. MississippiWx
4:06 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
The Atlantic has become much more unstable over the last couple of weeks. The instability has spiked to much closer to normal levels.

Tropical Atlantic



Subtropical Atlantic

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2834. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:06 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Being sheared and has dry air problems, but may develop into something in the Gulf of Mexico, as the NAM as been consistently been hinting. Remember, the NAM has done very well this season, surprisingly.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
2833. washingtonian115
4:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


We are currently in a neutral phase, but forecast by the models to go slightly positive over the coming week.

Then Katia or T.D 12 could pose a threat to the Carribean and the U.S?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2831. CaneHunter031472
4:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.


ok :-) I figured it has to be a joke.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
2830. washingtonian115
4:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Neutral - Slightly positive.
Crap....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2829. Dragod66
4:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


if it is anything like bill or earl, i will be watchin for sure!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625
2828. AstroHurricane001
4:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
2015 impostor or a post-Irene return attempt?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2827. MississippiWx
4:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what NAO phase are we in now?


We are currently in a neutral phase, but forecast by the models to go slightly positive over the coming week.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2826. HCW
4:03 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
We will have INVEST 93L before the end of the day in the Carib :)
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
2825. washingtonian115
4:03 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Where is KOTG or Taz when you need them?
They havn't been posting much as of late.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2824. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:03 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what NAO phase are we in now?


Neutral - Slightly positive.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
2823. NEwxguy
4:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
I see the fish people are already at it,if there anything they're consistent.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
2822. Cotillion
4:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
For those who haven't noticed, there have been a few HURDAT changes this month for some older storms:

"In August 2011 – Multiple changes are introduced to HURDAT:
1) Four new tropical cyclones were added: 1899 (tropical storm), 1901 (hurricane),
1904 (hurricane), and 1909 (tropical storm);
2) Alterations to the track and/or intensity of some tropical cyclones in 1857, 1859,
1866, 1882, 1885, 1887, 1900, 1901, 1909, 1910, 1912, 1915, 1921, 1922, 1925,
1926, 1927, and 1930;
3) Significant changes for U.S. hurricanes: 1857 North Carolina hurricane -
upgraded from Category 1 to Category 2, a new 1859 Florida Category 1 hurricane,
1882 Louisiana hurricane - downgraded from a Category 2 to a tropical storm,
1885 South Carolina hurricane - downgraded from Category 3 to Category 2,
1887 Texas hurricane - downgraded from Category 2 to Category 1, and
1925 Florida hurricane - downgraded from a Category 1 to a tropical storm;
4) Minor intensity changes for Georges (1980), Floyd (1981), Helene (1988), and
Keith (1988). These all contained original best track windspeeds to the overly
precise nearest 1 kt. Values are adjusted to the nearest 5 kt currently used."

The 1925 Florida Hurricane was once thought to be the latest hurricane to hit the US, but analysis has shown that not to be the case.

HURDAT changes Aug2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2821. AstroHurricane001
4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.


I have...hypergraphia.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2820. scott39
4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting scott39:
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.
Negative NAO----Stronger High. Positive NAO-----Amplified stronger troughs that break down the High.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2819. MississippiWx
4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12L is moving fairly slowly right now, may not get a floater until tomorrow. Remember, once the system gets to 30W, it will get a floater.



(Click to enlarge)


Already has a floater on RAMSDIS.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2818. jpsb
4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
2817. bassis
4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting Jasoniscoolman2015:
DO YOU SEE THAT!!! BIG TROPICAL WAVE!!!!


Stay away from Caps lock and somebody might take you a little more seriously
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
2815. washingtonian115
4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's not necessarily true. There is a lot of debate on the effects of the NAO, but we've been in a negative NAO for most of this season and we were also in the negative most of last season. A neutral or slightly positive NAO favors tracks more to the west. In 2005 and 2008, we had a slightly positive NAO during the peak months and we know what happened.

A strongly positive NAO favors a strong A/B high, but it is displaced to the east some, while a trough tends to carve itself out along the Eastern Seaboard.

A neutral to slightly positive NAO is worse for U.S. landfalls.
So what NAO phase are we in now?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2814. AstroHurricane001
4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
On this day six years ago, Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. Are developed countries now more well-prepared for catastrophic tropical cyclones?

Elsewhere in the tropics, Irene floods Canada, and the remnants of Jose are being dragged by Irene toward Cape Breton Island and Newfoundland. Jose's butt is still bringing convection to Bermuda.

Typhoon Nanmadol has hit southern Taiwan, and will track into the southern central provinces of China, presenting a significant flooding risk.

Although tropical storm Talas is currently extremely broad and almost disorganized, current forecasts project it to make landfall just west of the Tokyo-Yokohama Bay region, due in part of Fujiwara interaction with Nanmadol. This is potentially a threatening scenario, considering the storm is about ten degrees (roughly 1,100 km or 690 mi) wide, and will likely make landfall at a similar diameter as a strong category one. Considering that Katrina's initial landfall and Irene's final landfall were both cat. 1, these storms need to be watched.



Talas track forecast.

In the Atlantic still, TD 12L has developed, and promises to be a significant threat to the Gulf, Florida, US East Coast, Bermuda, random fish and/or Newfoundland. The wake left by Irene's slow motion and upwelling thereof has cooled most of the Gulf Stream region significantly, though that could vamp up again when future Katia approaches. A side note: sea surface temperatures off Louisiana are 32C (90F).

Finally, considering that Irene has almost exited the WU consciousness field, let's look again at the famous SST maps. (*groan*)



We observe that La Nina's second episode is picking up again: notice the cool anomaly offshore southern Peru. In the North Pacific, however (read: PDO zone), a 20C SST isotherm lurks barely 1,200 km from Portland, Oregon. Compared to last year, this is much closer to shore, and an axis extending from Hawaii to San Francisco is warmer.

In other news, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake struck the San Andreas two days ago. This is the first M4.5 earthquake in the region in three months.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2813. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
12L is moving fairly slowly right now, may not get a floater until tomorrow. Remember, once the system gets to 30W, it will get a floater.



(Click to enlarge)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
2812. MahFL
4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Don't quote the trolls, just ignore them.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3838
2808. MississippiWx
3:58 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting scott39:
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.


That's not necessarily true. There is a lot of debate on the effects of the NAO, but we've been in a negative NAO for most of this season and we were also in the negative most of last season. A neutral or slightly positive NAO favors tracks more to the west. In 2005 and 2008, we had a slightly positive NAO during the peak months and we know what happened.

A strongly positive NAO favors a strong A/B high, but it is displaced to the east some, while a trough tends to carve itself out along the Eastern Seaboard.

A neutral to slightly positive NAO is worse for U.S. landfalls.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2807. washingtonian115
3:58 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Yep.

That's funny.
Quoting masonsnana:
and don't quote him lol
I only quoted him so everybody can see who I'm talking about.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
2805. masonsnana
3:56 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh lord not again.Remember everybody. "!" and "-".Or press ignore.
and don't quote him lol
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
2803. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:55 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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