Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Can someone point me to a site that shows the top sustained winds on the delmarva peninsula during Irene? Thanks in advance..
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2500. ncstorm
CMC is much farther west with TD12..WATCH OUT CONUS

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14673
Good morning.

Looking at the set-up aloft it looks like a big risk down the line to Bermuda. I suspect anywhere else other then maybe E.Canada should be fine.Its a track that probably the NE Caribbean needs to keep a close eye on, I think it should clear the islands to the north but then again the models thought the same with Earl last year and that had a mighty close call.I expect a slightly further west version of Danielle from last year.


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Quoting RussianWinter:

I think it is quiet ironic that this one starts when the other one finished. It's almost as if Katrina had unfinished business to do when it crossed Florida as a mere category one.

Now I'm a bit more superstitious about naming storms than most but that's the way I see it, although currently the situation is unlikely. I always thought giving names to storms is one of the worst things man has done, it's as if man takes the hurricane and gives it the soul of the devil.


I always feel bad for the little ones with the same name as a bad storm. I was teaching a little girl named Katrina when Katrina hit. She was so confused when everyone was talking about how bad 'Katrina' was. She cried several times because 'no one would believe her when she said she was good'. It took a while before she could understand.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning all,
I thought we might see Katia this morning, but I see not yet. My thoughts are with all those today who went through Katrina.

I think it is quiet ironic that this one starts when the other one finished. It's almost as if Katrina had unfinished business to do when it crossed Florida as a mere category one.

Now I'm a bit more superstitious about naming storms than most but that's the way I see it, although currently the situation is unlikely. I always thought giving names to storms is one of the worst things man has done, it's as if man takes the hurricane and gives it the soul of the devil.
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2496. MahFL
Quoting Seawall:
New Hampshire flooding...
Link


That webpage could not be more cluttered if they even tried.....
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Morning all,
I thought we might see Katia this morning, but I see not yet. My thoughts are with all those today who went through Katrina.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Today is a day we all look back here in New Orleans as the day that changed all of our lives. Katrina is the word around the whole Gulf Coast when you here the date August 29th. This day will be remembered for the rest of our lives. I thank God that he pulled me threw one of the worst natural disasters in the history and my family to see the next day and many more. I will never forget this day as long as i lived.

#August 29th Louisiana,Mississippi,Alabama,and Florida#


+1,000
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Oh and GM Red, Cyber, all. :)
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Quoting redwagon:

GM, at home, did you see in the GFS where two ships passing in the night on wed-fri bring us rain?

I've been seeing some rain on the models and discussions. May have a little more if that high backs off. Not the big high a lower level one now. Lol. They're everywhere.

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Good morning! I see we have TD12.
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Lol. If it's not one ridge it's another. GO AWAY RIDGES!

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION
EXTENDS SW TO 27N88W...AND NW TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF
TONIGHT AND TRACK WNW TOWARDS MEXICO THROUGH WED WHILE AN ATLC
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD JUST N OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
FRI.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Nope, not quite yet. Still TD12.

GM, at home, did you see in the GFS where two ships passing in the night on wed-fri bring us rain?
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LOL This still isn't working right for me. I wrote the last line of that not Brwnsville.
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Brownsville

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...PATTERN SHIFT
APPROACHING FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE STARTING BRIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR
THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS IS GOING TO GET SHUNTED EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US..
.WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH SWEEPS IN BEHIND IT
INTO TEXAS. PW VALUES JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY NOON. WELL SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD HELP THE SEABREEZE FIRE UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SATURATION SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN PLACES. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY OWING TO
PATTERN SHIFTING TO STANDARD SEPTEMBER PATTERN AND GOOD RUN TO RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS POISED TO STALL ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PW VALUES HOLDING STEADY ACROSS
THE REGION. FORESEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO EXTREME HIGHS...LOWERING A
CAT INTO THE 90S WITH ONLY SOME FRINGE CHANCES OF REACH 100 RIGHT
AROUND FALCON LAKE.
WOOHOO! AND GOOD RIDDANCE!!!  :D
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Quoting breald:


Is this already a tropical storm?
Nope, not quite yet. Still TD12.
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2484. breald
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



Is this already a tropical storm?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:



Looks like the beginning of a true historic storm... This won't be developing in the caribbean, it will be thriving there!
Bring it on!

*Gets into boxing position.

This is going to be a wild ride!
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Wilma's replacement name is Whitney.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Lol. That's what I said about Rina!
Wow and wat about wilma's replacement. wats dat name
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2480. gippgig
Look at TD10.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Yea u right. But it seems weird that we almost catching up with 2005 names. and there goes another K storm that i think the people who does the names want to be funny by taking off the r and the n. C'MON MAN!
Lol. That's what I said about Rina!
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Quoting Seasidecove:


Oh no...not another Ka - Ca named storm, those always find the MS Coast...Camille, Katrina...LOL
Yea u right. But it seems weird that we almost catching up with 2005 names. and there goes another K storm that i think the people who does the names want to be funny by taking off the r and the n. C'MON MAN!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

I dont like that track at home i hope something recurves this thing because this may get into the GOM the way it looks like it may be heading. Mood- Nervous
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Quoting bigwes6844:
at home in TX we got td 12 on the same day as katrina anniversary. We may get the name katia in a few

Just saw that on the NHC site. Yep looks like the K storm soon. Lets hope she's nothing like Katrina. And that we don't stay on track with 2005 numbers wise either. Although this season has picked up fast all of a sudden!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
at home in TX we got td 12 on the same day as katrina anniversary. We may get the name katia in a few


Oh no...not another Ka - Ca named storm, those always find the MS Coast...Camille, Katrina...LOL
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at home in TX we got td 12 on the same day as katrina anniversary. We may get the name katia in a few
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Quoting bigwes6844:
i told you at home in Tx that August would be the month yall would end the drought of no rain.

Looks like you may have been right. If I don't jinx it. Lol. Sure hope this is a sign of change. Things are reaching some extreme levels. Hopefully the whole state can catch up before La Nina is supposed to set back in. I don't mean to drone on about this heat and drought. And many of y'all have been so kind about it. Thank you. :)

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Big smile  :D


i told you at home in Tx that August would be the month yall would end the drought of no rain.
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welcome td12
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Big smile  :D


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This may sound like a silly question but I just gotta ask, is "noodling" an official meteorological term? Lol. From Mobile

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY ON)WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFT AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MEMPHIS
AREA....NOODLING AROUND...THEN SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE THE MOISTURE LEVELS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FA. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF OVER THE SW-ERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE ADVERTISING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING A
CHANCE FOR TSRA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER EAST TX. FROM THERE...GUIDANCE
DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE CLOSED SYSTEM NOODLING AROUND
NEAR THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF OPENS THE
SYSTEM UP AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EAST TOWARDS THE AREA...BEFORE THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH(STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES) SLOWS AND THE NORTH END SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES STRETCHED SW TO NE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH SOLUTIONS MEAN ABOVE SEASONAL CHANCE FOR POPS FOR THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&
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Today is a day we all look back here in New Orleans as the day that changed all of our lives. Katrina is the word around the whole Gulf Coast when you here the date August 29th. This day will be remembered for the rest of our lives. I thank God that he pulled me threw one of the worst natural disasters in the history and my family to see the next day and many more. I will never forget this day as long as i lived.

#August 29th Louisiana,Mississippi,Alabama,and Florida#
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Hi, TD 12?
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922011_al122011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108290741
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Mexico again? ;-)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
OBSERVED SEAS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT. THE
PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A RATHER WEAK PRES
PATTERN OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION SW TO 27N88W...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO SW
LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALL AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILD WESTWARD TO THE N OF THE AREA
THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKENS SOME FRI. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL
BECOME E-SE THROUGHOUT BEGINNING TUE AND INTO FRI. THE EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SW ZONE AND S OF ABOUT 26N IN THE MIDDLE
ZONE WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN EXPECTED BROAD LOW
PRES IN THE SW GULF AND THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR E-SE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THOSE PORTIONS AS GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE WINDS MATERIALIZING. AS IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING...THE EXPECTED LOW PRES SHOULD EVOLVE FROM A
WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE THAT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EVENTUALLY COMES INTO FAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF TO SPIN UP THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW IN A GENERAL NW
DIRECTION TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. THE LATEST
REGIONAL NAM GUIDANCE IS A LOT SLOWER KEEPING THE LOW IN THE NE
PART OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH DAY 5 FT...AND AS A STRONGER SYSTEM.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHILE
MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING BY NOT
DEVIATING FROM CURRENT FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WITH LOW.

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Quoting Seasidecove:




HPC - showing our Gulf Low in 5 Days!


that looks rather unpleasant.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

If 92L forms into Katia today, it will be a day before 6 years since KATRINA(!) dissipated.


Yeah, Waveland, is having a memorial service this morning on the beach. As well as the other towns along the MS coast.
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Yesterday's graphic day 7. Can't believe I missed all this. lol


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Quoting Bobbyweather:

If 92L forms into Katia today, it will be a day before 6 years since KATRINA(!) dissipated.


Yeah, if she could hold out one more day......

naaaah, NHC will jump the gun......again!
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Quoting Seasidecove:




HPC - showing our Gulf Low in 5 Days!

Wow! Didn't have that link. Lol. Lots of rain right south of me.

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As of August 28
2005: 13/11/5/3
2011: 11/10/1/1
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Quoting Kowaliga:
Mornin' y'all... "Katia" says hi...


If 92L forms into Katia today, it will be a day before 6 years since KATRINA(!) dissipated.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks that way. The EURO just ran. So far looks like a huge trough comes in to save the day. But you know how that goes wait and see. Still not showing gulf development but does have low pressure over TX for a few days coming up. For a change. :)




HPC - showing our Gulf Low in 5 Days!
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Mornin' y'all... "Katia" says hi...

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Recurvature is not set in stone, but appears most likely at this time, given the favorable synoptic environment which could lead to quick intensification. But we will need to watch this regardless.

And I hope you guys get some rain.
Thanks Kori. :)
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Quoting Seasidecove:


Does it show whether 92L is headed to the East Coast, or Gulf Coast or still to far out?


At the end of the run still looks to be out to sea. Wow this site is messed up can't link now. Ah well. Guess it has gremlins tonight.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks that way. The EURO just ran. So far looks like a huge trough comes in to save the day. But you know how that goes wait and see. Still not showing gulf development but does have low pressure over TX for a few days coming up. For a change. :)


Recurvature is not set in stone, but appears most likely at this time, given the favorable synoptic environment which could lead to quick intensification. But we will need to watch this regardless.

And I hope you guys get some rain.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks that way. The EURO just ran. So far looks like a huge trough comes in to save the day. But you know how that goes wait and see. Still not showing gulf development but does have low pressure over TX for a few days coming up. For a change. :)


Does it show whether 92L is headed to the East Coast, or Gulf Coast or still to far out?
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Quoting Seawall:
Sorry if this has been posted before, but video out of Vermont. This is just incredible what damage these folks are sustaining. I can only imagine what some other states are going through, or about to go through with Irene. It's not over, even though the media coverage is dying down.

Link


Incredible and sad. Reminds me of Ike's flooding but his was mostly from surge around here. That water is some powerful stuff.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.