Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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2550. scott39
It will be interesting to see how far W TD 12 tracks before going WNW. This will gives a little better idea of a long term track.
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2549. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
012/TD/K/CX
MARK
XXN/XXW
OUT OF RANGE


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2004!

ok this is a better one

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archive s/2011/al122011.11082906.gif 2011!
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For those who weren't on last night when I posted, here's my blog update. It's a little out of date now that 92L is TD12, but the same principles still apply. :-)

Out until later today. Enjoy.

Blog
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2546. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry could have said it better lol
Looked good to me Taz.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry could have said it better lol



What a surprise.
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sorry wrong picture
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Quoting scott39:
Good advice Taz!



sorry could have said it better lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
The track of soon to be Katia is solely dependent on what the trough does.it is also dependent on the strengh of the trough. the forecast iS for it to start a WNW track today. should the system continues west for most of today and part tomorrow, you can rest assure that the trough will have no effect and we are looking at a caribbean track. something to watch very closely.
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2541. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
well needtoo get ready you guys need too follow the nhc forcast and mode runs too find out where TD 12 will go
Good advice Taz!
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Have a great day folks...
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2539. scott39
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.
Do you mean how far W?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.



so ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
well needtoo get ready you guys need too follow the nhc forcast and mode runs too find out where TD 12 will go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.
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Quoting scott39:
Your thinking further W?



yes
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2534. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:




Bermuda. is safe
Your thinking further W?
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2533. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:




we have are own life other then this old blog and many WU bloger has started school
It does look like life is busy for most this morning.
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Quoting scott39:
I agree Taz, at the very least it will be a threat to the Northern Islands and Bermuda.




Bermuda. is safe
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
2531. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea
I agree Taz, at the very least it will be a threat to the Northern Islands and Bermuda.
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Quoting scott39:
I havent seen the blog this slow since the winter. WU---burnout?? Or is school back in for our enthusiastic young WU bloggers??




we have are own life other then this old blog and many WU bloger has started school
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
Quoting scott39:
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
2528. scott39
I havent seen the blog this slow since the winter. WU---burnout?? Or is school back in for our enthusiastic young WU bloggers??
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I lurk and post every now and then

track forecast for Irene - %100
intensity forecast - no reason to even think about it

I say that because getting the track is all you need....come on folks...why would anyone complain when a disaster doesn't hit? at least we know the forecasters get the track right...money? you say it costs money to close stuff down....I say too bad...people are more important

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Quoting K8eCane:
Good morning TazHope you have a good day!



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
2525. scott39
Quoting scott39:
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.
Who is the HHC??? LOL The NHC
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2524. scott39
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.
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2523. hydrus
Quoting StormHype:
Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:





.......................................Not to mention that Irene picked up in forward speed, hence increasing winds on the right quadrant and decreasing them on the left. A lot of spin with the new depression..
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2522. K8eCane
Good morning TazHope you have a good day!
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i see we have TD 12
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
bump
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
My classroom awaits. Everyone have a great Monday!
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does this pattern continue with Katia, when if she develops? hmmmm


emily path



Irene path

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MSNBC news article:

'Gold medal forecast' of Irene's path saved lives, expert says
24 hours before landfall, National Hurricane Center predicted storm's next day location to within 10 miles or so
Link

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2516. aimetti
Quoting StormHype:
Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:

Link





i live just to the west of this. I am at work now but they are saying we will be without power for at least 3 days. I took a drive yesterday. power lines down everywhere / trees as well. Big mess.
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Quoting Vlad959810:

It form the same day and the same place as DONNA, 51 years ago


Bite your tongue!

Ack!
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2514. scott39
Goodmorning, Does the Bermuda High continue to build back in on TD 12, late in the forecast track?
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2513. Vero1
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Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:

Link



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Quoting Floodman:


Fish storm is an unfortunate turn of phrase; anything that makes the trip from the Cape Verde is most likely to pass through the islands; last I checked there were damned few uninhabited islands in the Leewards and the Lesser Antilles...

3 millions exactly
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Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS at 117 hours. This is why I said in my blog that Puerto Rico and the northern islands should keep an eye on (Katia). Wouldn't take a whole lot to put her right on top of them...


It form the same day and the same place as DONNA, 51 years ago
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big difference between those gulf monsters and atlantic ones thats why my family does not live over on the gulf as for the future only the future knows but nature tends to repeat itself
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2508. MahFL
""We can't believe a hurricane came through here," city spokeswoman Lori Crouch said."

Proberbly because one didn't, more likely it was a TS at the time.

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2507. Vero1
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2506. WxLogic
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning. It's very quiet today.


Indeed... pretty sure quite a bit of people got burned out by Irene. lol.
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Quoting MahFL:
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link


Yeah. My part of Louisiana is in the same drought. We're all hoping the rain forecasted for the latter part of the week comes through.
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2504. MahFL
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link
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Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning


Morning. It's very quiet today.
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2502. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Can someone point me to a site that shows the top sustained winds on the delmarva peninsula during Irene? Thanks in advance..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.