Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Well if the GFS has this hitting Maine or the Canadian Maritimes in it's early runs then it will more than likely be a threat from Texas to Florida.
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Quoting greenmtboy:
It's a beautiful post-hurricane morning here in North Central Vermont, with some sun and clouds. Up here on our hill, we sat it out successfully. But the folks below us along U.S. Route 2 and the Winooski River running into Montpelier (and eventually out into Lake Champlain) are in trouble. The New Deal-era dam in Marshfield built to prevent devastating floods on this watershed like the famous one in 1927 old-timers still talk about is in danger of overflowing and possibly breaking. (See the WCAX news story.) So the road has been closed and the people below the dam evacuated. Montpelier is partly flooded (again, like in May). So are Rutland and Middlebury on the other side of the Green Mountains. Whoever says this storm was being hyped and is a "disappointment" is an idiot. Here in Vermont, folks will remember this one for a long time.

Yea, you guys took the brunt of the rain. Here in NH
we lost a couple tree branches and some rain. Power
never went out thankfully. Thank goodness they closed the National Forest yesterday.
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Irene's waves and surge slam camera man in New England:
Irene video - POV surge

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2598. LBAR
Hey! I got a shout-out from the NHC!

DURING THIS TIME THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LBAR...WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS
WELL IN THE DEEP TROPICS
.
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2597. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Vero1:
Or: "Is your heart healthy enough for..." (and then the Hurricane symbol")


how about

"have you been pumped today"

lol

ok enough iam gone be back at lunch
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I think any low in the GOM bears close watching. 90 degree water coupled with low shear could spin one up fast. I remember Cindy in July 2005. Came out of nowhere and spun up fast. I am not wishing one just concerned about the amount of energy available in the Gulf.
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It's a beautiful post-hurricane morning here in North Central Vermont, with some sun and clouds. Up here on our hill, we sat it out successfully. But the folks below us along U.S. Route 2 and the Winooski River running into Montpelier (and eventually out into Lake Champlain) are in trouble. The New Deal-era dam in Marshfield built to prevent devastating floods on this watershed like the famous one in 1927 old-timers still talk about is in danger of overflowing and possibly breaking. (See the WCAX news story.) So the road has been closed and the people below the dam evacuated. Montpelier's downtown is partly flooded (again, like back in May). So are Rutland and Middlebury on the other side of the Green Mountains. Whoever says this storm was being hyped and is a "disappointment" is an idiot. Here in Vermont, folks will remember this one for a long time.
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2594. Vero1
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.
Or: "Is your heart healthy enough for..." (and then the Hurricane symbol")
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Quoting FLdewey:
Best video of Irene... street hockey in Times Square.

"
,i could here them on the times square cam sat night,i was wondering were all the whooting and hollaring was coming from,
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2590. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
or wait

"shift always happens"

"i've been pumped"


i got to stop this before i get in trouble
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Looks like the military saved a guy in that video, (the man with the red shirt on!).
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2588. CBJeff
Quoting hurricaneben:
Will Irene be retired? I think so.


No question about it. Any US loss of life is almost a guaranteed trip to the retired list.
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2587. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.
lol
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2584. ncstorm
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.


LOL!!!
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2583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Twinkster:
This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.


yes sit back and watch where she goes maybe just a highhseas player
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Will Irene be retired? I think so.
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2581. Gearsts
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo.

Patent pending.
LOL
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TD12 is very far south. the trough most of the global models are expecting to create a weakness in the ridge, and move the system wnw, has 48 hrs to do so. there after the trough weakens and allows the the ridge to build back stronger. should this happen, then soon to be Kasia will continue west towards the central islands as a hurricane and track into the caribbean sea.
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This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.


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Quoting Gearsts:
OMG shift west now! The eye has miss the forecast point! ;)



Next thing you know is, it'll "pump the ridge" and "bust the trough" and then the "shift" will really "hit the fan."
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5:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


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FYI - Mom's place in Cape May made it through fine.. no damage, no flooding.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled life...
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Quoting MahFL:
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link


It's pretty sad when parts of West TX have less drought conditions than the Gulf Coast part of the state.

We're going to Ireland next month just to see green and feel a little rain.
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I think the key to tracking TD#12 is if its below 15N at 45W, this will increase the chances of it affecting land before it recurves, if it does recurve at all? Sure hope the East coast don't take a 1-2 punch but it is not impossible, just saying
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Back later tonight...
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Nogaps takes her the farthest south going due W toward the islands, most of the others show it go north of the islands and likely out to sea, or Canadian landfall. Another thing models show is another African coming off in 7 days, one last thing to keep some watch on is the little tropical wave in the W. Caribbean, the Nam forms it 3 days or so. I know its the nam, but it's not that far out to forecast
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2567. NASA101
I just think the models develop TD12 too fast... East side lacks convection and it may be while before it develops into Katia - currently it's moving due West - it's to easy on the loops...

Wait and See....
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2566. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


General rule is any storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W will more then likely miss the continental US. The high is much weaker to the north of this disturbance as it was during irene. European global model has a pretty substantial trof in its path which will more than likely keep it out to sea.

That is the general rule of thumb. Although Ivan didnt pay any attention to that rule in 2004. He formed on 9/2/04 in the same general area.... as TD 12, and hit the N Gulf Coast. It will also depend on how fast TD 12 strengthens and many other factors are still at play, so Im not saying out to sea yet.
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2565. Gearsts
Quoting GetReal:


TD 12 has been tracking almost due west for the past several hours, and may continue on the more westerly track.





OMG shift west now! The eye has miss the forecast point! ;)
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Sure is slow this morning...little surprised with the latitude of the track forecast with TD Twelve
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting scott39:
Do you mean how far W?
Yes..I was thinking West
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lol Cimss sat estimates on TD 12 have Raw estimation of 3.3
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1012.0mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 3.3
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Good morning all - have not heard how Abaco fared during Irene. I have some friends and interests there, but have not heard much regarding damage, etc... Thanks!
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I see we have TD Twelve...what a way to wake up. guess i will monitor this threat too
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
2555. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2554. GetReal


TD 12 has been tracking almost due west for the past several hours, and may continue on the more westerly track.





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2553. 7544
looks like td 12 will be another intresting storm to watch ge here we go again will the others follow

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zgge m500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.htmlLink
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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Does the Bermuda High continue to build back in on TD 12, late in the forecast track?


General rule is any storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W will more then likely miss the continental US. The high is much weaker to the north of this disturbance as it was during irene. European global model has a pretty substantial trof in its path which will more than likely keep it out to sea.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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