Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Katia seems about certain...Link
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Quoting atmoaggie:
They really do not want those images embedded (read the text).

If we continue to do so, they may start restricting access.

Links are welcome, though.



Oops, didn't see that. Fixed it, thanks for the heads up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Looking at the EURO 10 day model forecast, it looks like a threat for the Bahamas and south Florida ,from to soon to be KASIA.
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In terms of numbers, picking four very active seasons with early active periods as well:

1933: What would become Hurricane 11 forms on this date.
1936: Hurricanes 10 and 11 form on this date.
1995: Karen is named.
2005: TD13 forms.

Considering the peculiar beginning of the season, be interesting to see which season it mostly resembles. Keeps up the same intensity? Gets even quicker? Or comes shuddering to a halt?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 92L continues to fire deep convection, thanks to a moist environment. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook will be released within the next hour, and in my opinion, it should be given a 60% chance for development.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



Rainbow:



It could be TD 12 by 11 PM
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to the top 10 best analogues for 92L, it has a very small chance of making it to the USA.

They really do not want those images embedded (read the text).

If we continue to do so, they may start restricting access.

Links are welcome, though.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Looks folks, the way i see it is...A very large and powerful storm was predicted by the models to run up the east coast. This is very rare, especially as it was forecasted only 3 days out. Irenen ended up taking in a lot of dry air from the west, along with some shear which kept her weaker as she was running up the Florida coast. She also went through an eyewall replacement cycle and couldn't fully recover from that before she hit north carolina. It also seemed as if she spent quite a bit of time over the outer banks.

It was these factors, coupled with others, as I am not a professional meteorologist that kept her weaker than the FORECASTED strength. we got lucky. we should be happy! because the economic and social losses of preparing for a strong storm, are MUCH MUCH MUCH less than actually experiencing a strong strorm.

Meteorology and forecasting is a science, and science is not perfect.

Irene could have just as easily been above the forecasted expectations, peaking at a strong cat 4 and bearly missing the outer banks, leaving a strong cat 2/3 for the NYC area. Then all of our dire predictions may have been true...we got lucky folks. chill out and be happy.

It is freaking mother nature we are dealing with here. She is not a robot, and I am glad she isn't. She is hard to predict just like us people haha. Just be glad many of us dodged a bullet, because some, such as those in north carolina, recieved tremendously serious flooding.
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Irene will be one for the record books for sure.. Winds at 75 mph. all the way up to northern NJ. While the actual eye made landfall in NYC as a TS, Hurricane force winds were reported from NYC to Western Long Island.

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Can someone fetch me a link to the euro which isn't the Raleigh site?

Is the convection behind 92L apart of it or another t-wave?
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A much different Atlantic than a couple of weeks ago

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting P451:
Went out and did a 3 mile walk/run. Took a couple of pics. Had some trees down in the 6-8" thick range. A couple of roads had been blocked but someone had chainsawed and moved the debris so people could pass. You can always count on random chainsaw guy to pull you through the rough times LOL.

I would assume most of this occurred in the band that came through early this morning around 6am which caused many stations to post their 60s and low 70s wind gusts. I estimated we had about 10 minutes of torrential rain, 50mph sustained, 65 gust. More common was 35 sustained, 50 gusts, through most of the night.


Anyways, this is representative of what we had up here, ~30 miles north of NYC just off the Hudson River.

Most common is of course the smaller branch photo'd - stuff like this that deserved to come down one way or another.



More isolated but still frequent every 1/4 mile or so is this type of debris:





Some bad flooding of yards of course, you can note the broken tree just in the photo:



And a pretty raging river that is usually just a lazy stream. I took video will post that later. I can only imagine what the bigger rivers show. This river only has a few miles of length to it and it's just raging along. So it must be very serious in a lot of locations if this little thing is doing that. The bridge was vibrating from it. Kind of eerie. You can see it is well out of it's banks and many times deeper than it should be.




Something to keep in mind. As I was walking every modest wind gust would produce a crashing sound somewhere. A lot of snapped branches are dangling as you can see in the following photo. Be wary and careful of this. Look closely you will see the snapped limb hanging upsidedown just to the right of where it snapped from. That's a big branch it would do serious damage to what it falls on. It spans part of the road.



Walking in the "eye" was fun but it was filled in with at least thin clouds. Sun popped out temporarily. Satellite imagery confirmed I was dead center until the COC. Shortly afterwards the wind came back from the West or North West with some modest gusts - causing loose debris to fall.

Great area for running!
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Quoting Floodman:


Welcome to the Cape Verde Express during a neutral ENSO year


I'm really hoping we either hold ENSO-neutral (or, somehow magically) have a weak ENSO, because the CPC report at the beginning of the month indicated we've got a 50/50 chance of either ENSO-Neutral or La Nina.

ENSO Advisory August 4 2011
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey!.I'm a she!


Sorry!! Not had that great of a morning so far! :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
This plot looks very much like the instrumentation was incapable of measuring a higher value for some reason and it doesn't actually show the peak.


Possibly a foot higher...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Hey, Walmart, get the capital letter troll out please...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Think he may have been being sarcastic??
Hey!.I'm a she!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Link

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Quoting AWeatherLover:
To everyone posting in all caps, stop yelling. Nobody wants to read that.

Does anyone know the numbers for cape verde season? As in, what is the average number of cape verde type storms to form every season? TIA. Just curious.


Not sure in full average, but even the less active seasons or seasons with high amounts of SAL and other factors, typically churn out at least one or two.
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RE: Post 47. P451

Thanks, much appreciated.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


It's dirvin me nuts!


;)



LOL
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Quoting AWeatherLover:
To everyone posting in all caps, stop yelling. Nobody wants to read that.

Does anyone know the numbers for cape verde season? As in, what is the average number of cape verde type storms to form every season? TIA. Just curious.


I do not believe there is one set average, because La Nina, El Nino, and Neutral years all produce different numbers. However, each season has at least one or two.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
sorry if it has been posted already, but look at these fellas lmao


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc9ZSjcsFU0&featur e=player_embedded#!
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Quoting breald:


Great pictures P. Are you in NJ or NY?

BTW PcolaDan, I love your avatar.


It's drivin me nuts!


;)
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Quoting Floodman:


Welcome to the Cape Verde Express during a neutral ENSO year
Not to mention home grown activity that could/can happen.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)
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Quoting PcolaDan:
P451, good pictures. And good tip about keeping an eye out for branches stuck in trees. People get killed all the time after a storm from branches that finally fall loose from a tree. Can happen weeks later too if not taken care of.


Great pictures P. Are you in NJ or NY?

BTW PcolaDan, I love your avatar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To everyone posting in all caps, stop yelling. Nobody wants to read that.

Does anyone know the numbers for cape verde season? As in, what is the average number of cape verde type storms to form every season? TIA. Just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


clearly was not my point, but whatever


Think he may have been being sarcastic??
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting Dennis8:


YEPPERS AND THE LEATHER BINDING ON MY JEEP GRAND CHEROKEE STEERING WHEEL MELTED..NO LIE


Mine is so old I wouldn't notice. Been meaning to get a new steering wheel cover. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It seems like ever since Emily formed the storms just don't wanna stop coming.


Welcome to the Cape Verde Express during a neutral ENSO year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Invest 92L continues to fire deep convection, thanks to a moist environment. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook will be released within the next hour, and in my opinion, it should be given a 60% chance for development.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



Rainbow:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting P451:


Or saying it was going Due West 270. LOL


The dynamic instead shifted to downcasting the storm to a gust of wind or declaring it dead all together.


Went through "the eye" just a little while ago. Wind has shifted the other way and gusts are increasing. It's going to be a few hours more of worry - weakened trees that didn't quite go over but now might - so power could go again. A few times while walking as I mentioned above I would hear limbs crashing in the woods - obviously they were already snapped from earlier but were resting in the canopy.

This is going to be a continued problem for a while. I hope folks don't think it's okay to walk on wooded trails or drive nonchalantly down forested roads. If you do, please look up at what you're about to walk under, you may just find you were about to walk under what my last photo showed.

Despite an overall lack of heavy damage I wouldn't want anything I saw down falling on my head. No way.

I work disater recovery and have since Andrew... We call those branches "hangers" or "widow makers". Thousands are probably poised up and down the coastal forested regions now. Please everyone, just because the storm has passed don't think the danger is over. Also look for power lines in the trees before you attempt to remove such debris
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...one honest man...



heh heh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


clearly was not my point, but whatever
I was being sarcastic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...one honest man...

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
Link

I have good news and bad news about your boat....


Now thats crazy
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
If I lived up there I'd be out looking for good trees to turn into lumber. A lot of good wood that could be recycled into usable lumber for woodworkers is just going to get turned into debris for the dumps or firewood. Penn/NY has lots of woodworkers.
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48.
Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

Evidence enough to me your a troll. Welcome to ignore moron.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
rule # 7 Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.



but oh cares lol we all do it any ways


LOL...one honest man...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Your 4th sir.


clearly was not my point, but whatever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Went out and did a 3 mile walk/run. Took a couple of pics. Had some trees down in the 6-8" thick range. A couple of roads had been blocked but someone had chainsawed and moved the debris so people could pass. You can always count on random chainsaw guy to pull you through the rough times LOL.

I would assume most of this occurred in the band that came through early this morning around 6am which caused many stations to post their 60s and low 70s wind gusts. I estimated we had about 10 minutes of torrential rain, 50mph sustained, 65 gust. More common was 35 sustained, 50 gusts, through most of the night.


Anyways, this is representative of what we had up here, ~30 miles north of NYC just off the Hudson River.

Most common is of course the smaller branch photo'd - stuff like this that deserved to come down one way or another.



More isolated but still frequent every 1/4 mile or so is this type of debris:





Some bad flooding of yards of course, you can note the broken tree just in the photo:



And a pretty raging river that is usually just a lazy stream. I took video will post that later. I can only imagine what the bigger rivers show. This river only has a few miles of length to it and it's just raging along. So it must be very serious in a lot of locations if this little thing is doing that. The bridge was vibrating from it. Kind of eerie. You can see it is well out of it's banks and many times deeper than it should be.




Something to keep in mind. As I was walking every modest wind gust would produce a crashing sound somewhere. A lot of snapped branches are dangling as you can see in the following photo. Be wary and careful of this. Look closely you will see the snapped limb hanging upsidedown just to the right of where it snapped from. That's a big branch it would do serious damage to what it falls on. It spans part of the road.



Walking in the "eye" was fun but it was filled in with at least thin clouds. Sun popped out temporarily. Satellite imagery confirmed I was dead center until the COC. Shortly afterwards the wind came back from the West or North West with some modest gusts - causing loose debris to fall.



Great photos, I haven't seen too many images from Irene up on flickr yet. It's always nice to see things from an individual and not CNN or TWC.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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