Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 151 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

12Z NOGAPS is much farther south with 92L
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13458
150. mbjjm
Quoting reedzone:
Irene will be one for the record books for sure.. Winds at 75 mph. all the way up to northern NJ. While the actual eye made landfall in NYC as a TS, Hurricane force winds were reported from NYC to Western Long Island.



The map is over done. I cant find any obs of huricane conditions only gusts to hurricane force .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

NEW ORLEANS (AP)

Six years after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, the New Orleans neighborhood that was hardest hit still looks like a ghost town. Redevelopment has been slow in coming, and the neighborhood has just 5,500 residents — one-third its pre-Katrina population.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
You know, Irene may have not been another "Katrina", but put your shoes in someone who lives up north, rarely even gets Tropical Storms now and days.. Cut the crap! Irene made history whether you like it or not, NYC did receive Hurricane force winds, as well as Western Long Island, according to the NHC map. I'm getting tired of the hate mail for just showing the reality of the storm. It had a PRESSURE of a Category 3 storm, didn't say it WAS a Category 3 storm. How you youngsters go outside and play for a while before you attack people who have more knowledge and are more mature then you. Irene will be known as one for the costliest storms on record, BEHIND Katrina due to the 650 trees uprooted in the Tri-State area alone, lot more elsewhere, the dozen death, toll probably gonna rise a bit more, damage form the erratic slow movement of the storm, and the massive evacuations along the East Coast. Levi himself even said this storm would make history and is a very intense storm and was not to be treated as a low end Category 1 storm. Sorry for the rant but I got alot of hate mail just recently saying I'm a doomcaster and stuff... Don't forget who predicted this to be an East Coast storm when everyone was sure it was headed in the Gulf.


Yeah, I have to say, you DID do a good job of predicting where it was going to go.

Had to commend you on that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting P451:
Video to go with Post #21


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58leYRHXJec

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)




You know, it is amazing what you and Matt can do with PowerPoint, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting chsstormgirl:


The invests in the Atlantic start at 90L; once they reach 99L, the numbers start over again at 90. Hope that helps!
Thanks all for the answers. That is what I appreciate most about this site - I learn a lot. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know, Irene may have not been another "Katrina", but put your shoes in someone who lives up north, rarely even gets Tropical Storms now and days.. Cut the crap! Irene made history whether you like it or not, NYC did receive Hurricane force winds, as well as Western Long Island, according to the NHC map. I'm getting tired of the hate mail for just showing the reality of the storm. It had a PRESSURE of a Category 3 storm, didn't say it WAS a Category 3 storm. How you youngsters go outside and play for a while before you attack people who have more knowledge and are more mature then you. Irene will be known as one for the costliest storms on record, BEHIND Katrina due to the 650 trees uprooted in the Tri-State area alone, lot more elsewhere, the dozen death, toll probably gonna rise a bit more, damage form the erratic slow movement of the storm, and the massive evacuations along the East Coast. Levi himself even said this storm would make history and is a very intense storm and was not to be treated as a low end Category 1 storm. Sorry for the rant but I got alot of hate mail just recently saying I'm a doomcaster and stuff... Don't forget who predicted this to be an East Coast storm when everyone was sure it was headed in the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question about Dr. Master's blog post. Is NYC not considered a city within the Northeast region? I say this because 19.68" of August precip in NYC is greater than 19.40" in Philadelphia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Nice avatar and graphics man.It won't be to soon before we may see "Katia" added to those graphics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

round 1


90L bust

91L bust

94L bust

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust

97L bust

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L absorbed by Gert.

93L be comes HARVEY

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust

97L be comes Irene

98L bust

99L bust



round 3

90L be comes TD 10

91L be comes JOSE

92L ???




here is where we stan so far i wounder if i will get too round 4 or 5 this year the way its going
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)




Graphics get more fancy every time, good job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
92L should turn North and pass well over 500 miles to the north of the islands. Seems unlikely a hit will happen especially with climatology against it.


Yeah, and you said it was unlikely you had to prepare for Irene when it was in the Central Atlantic...You guys got a hurricane.

I'm just messing with you :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting avthunder:
Wanted to ask a question about the invest numbering and I apologize if it has already been answered in the past. How are the numbers determined? We have had 97L (I think that was how Irene started) and 98L which was around for over a week and now we have 92L. How are the numbers designated?


The invests in the Atlantic start at 90L; once they reach 99L, the numbers start over again at 90. Hope that helps!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting avthunder:
Wanted to ask a question about the invest numbering and I apologize if it has already been answered in the past. How are the numbers determined? We have had 97L (I think that was how Irene started) and 98L which was around for over a week and now we have 92L. How are the numbers designated?


The invest numbering in the Atlantic goes from 90L to 99L. After 99L, it repeats back to 90L, and so on. For instance, there is 92L out in the Eastern Atlantic. The next invest classified will be 93L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
133. Relix
92L should turn North and pass well over 500 miles to the north of the islands. Seems unlikely a hit will happen especially with climatology against it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting avthunder:
Wanted to ask a question about the invest numbering and I apologize if it has already been answered in the past. How are the numbers determined? We have had 97L (I think that was how Irene started) and 98L which was around for over a week and now we have 92L. How are the numbers designated?
They just reuse them over and over in order starting with 90L up through 99L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KILL DEVIL HILLS, N.C. (AP) — From North Carolina to New Jersey, Hurricane Irene's winds and storm surge fell short of the doomsday predictions. But the danger is far from over: With rivers still rising, severe flooding is feared across much of the East Coast over the next few days.

More than 4.5 million homes and businesses along the coast lost power, and at least 14 deaths were blamed on the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting avthunder:
Wanted to ask a question about the invest numbering and I apologize if it has already been answered in the past. How are the numbers determined? We have had 97L (I think that was how Irene started) and 98L which was around for over a week and now we have 92L. How are the numbers designated?


There were a few others in there too. It goes 90L-99L and recycles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good job, troll gone.... Keep on the good bloggin... Almost gone?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ohhh, I see. Wow I din't even see it as an invest before it became Jose.. I was too zoomed in Irene... I forgot to look out
Everybody did.I was surprised to see Jose on the map as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder if 92L will be our first Cape Verde named storm (seems likely). Recon won't be able to fly into the system until 55W, so the National Hurricane Center will have to go off of observations from the Cape Verde Islands, Satelliet appearance, and Dvorak numbers. Will be interesting to see what happens with this invest.
Wanted to ask a question about the invest numbering and I apologize if it has already been answered in the past. How are the numbers determined? We have had 97L (I think that was how Irene started) and 98L which was around for over a week and now we have 92L. How are the numbers designated?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of Texas heat:

--Wichita Falls is already 101 before noon again. This is the city's 92nd day this year at or above 100. The previous record was 79 in 1980. (It's also the 84th out of the last 87 to reach 100.) Forecast for today: 108. For tomorrow: 110.

--The previous record for 100-degree days in Amarillo, Texas--which averages six such days per year--was 26. Today will be the 48th time this summer it hits that mark.

--Today will also be the 62nd 100-degree day in Dallas this year.

--Bonus fact: 2,449 new record high temperature records have been set (not tied) so far this month across the US. Just 128 new record low temperature records have been set during that period. That's a ratio of better than 19 to 1 (and this in a month that at least one well-known bodybuilder forecaster swore would see major cooling across the US).


LOL.

Looks like Texas might receive at least SLIGHT relief, as the models show a breakdown in the Texas ridge by 7-10 days. That, or it shifts west past the Rockies.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't want another Irene...


There is that one other ensemble member that takes it to the west-south-west, but I have a feeling these will all start to right themselves later on the next runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
everybody please press the "-" and "!" button.I'm tired of seeing that things post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tha was Irene on road 30 Juncos PR.. I was going to my work early in the morning... Irene again at Ocean Park, San Juan later afternoon in my home
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropical Storm Jose formed from an Upper Level Low that worked down to the surface and developed tropical cyclone characteristics. It had deep thunderstorm activity last night, and ASCAT confirmed tropical storm force winds last night, but today...Convection has diminished and I'm not so sure it meets classification now. It is just a naked swirl right now because it is being sheared by Irene's outflow, several hundred miles away.



ohhh, I see. Wow I din't even see it as an invest before it became Jose.. I was too zoomed in Irene... I forgot to look out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P451:

Thanks for sharing the images... beautiful place, I enjoyed looking..

We call those hung up broken branches "widow makers"

Dennis... if it was leather, it couldn't melt.. just saying :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters,
Nice update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATMO - level gauge must have reached max height it can measure, so water was def. higher than that for a while but unsure how long.
I've seen that in a distillation tower.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys 92L may not go out too sea has mode runs show it is vary far S and i think its rare for a storm too go out too sea this far S has 92L is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
just got off the phone with granndma up in westchester county,she said no big deal ,just alot of rain,and some wind,she never lost power and is safe:)


Good to hear, I hope the same applies for the rest of where she lives, groceries are always nice nice. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of Texas heat:

--Wichita Falls is already 101 before noon again. This is the city's 92nd day this year at or above 100. The previous record was 79 in 1980. (It's also the 84th out of the last 87 to reach 100.) Forecast for today: 108. For tomorrow: 110.

--The previous record for 100-degree days in Amarillo, Texas--which averages six such days per year--was 26. Today will be the 48th time this summer it hits that mark.

--Today will also be the 62nd 100-degree day in Dallas this year.

--Bonus fact: 2,449 new record high temperature records have been set (not tied) so far this month across the US. Just 128 new record low temperature records have been set during that period. That's a ratio of better than 19 to 1 (and this in a month that at least one well-known bodybuilder forecaster swore would see major cooling across the US).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
I'm still not convinced it'll be a U.S threat, but it's something to watch I guess.

@104
last night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
when and from what did Jose form??? I just found out


Tropical Storm Jose formed from an Upper Level Low that worked down to the surface and developed tropical cyclone characteristics. It had deep thunderstorm activity last night, and ASCAT confirmed tropical storm force winds last night, but today...Convection has diminished and I'm not so sure it meets classification now. It is just a naked swirl right now because it is being sheared by Irene's outflow, several hundred miles away.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting nofailsafe:


The track though seems a bit uncertain though, only three of the ensemble members take it anywhere at this point.

Link


I don't want another Irene...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder if 92L will be our first Cape Verde named storm (seems likely). Recon won't be able to fly into the system until 55W, so the National Hurricane Center will have to go off of observations from the Cape Verde Islands, Satelliet appearance, and Dvorak numbers. Will be interesting to see what happens with this invest.


Or it could just flop like TD 10, but a CV storm would be exciting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just got off the phone with granndma up in westchester county,she said no big deal ,just alot of rain,and some wind,she never lost power and is safe:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Katia seems about certain...Link


The track though seems a bit uncertain though, only three of the ensemble members take it anywhere at this point.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
May 92L stay out to sea. With a home in Philly, one at the Jersey shore, I feel lucky that the west side wasn't as bad as forecast with Irene. Different story if you're in the floodplain but we're not. Only one downed tree for me far not impacting anything significant. Day not over yet and gusts still over 40 at times, but hoping we're done.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if 92L will be our first Cape Verde named storm (seems likely). Recon won't be able to fly into the system until 55W, so the National Hurricane Center will have to go off of observations from the Cape Verde Islands, Satelliet appearance, and Dvorak numbers. Will be interesting to see what happens with this invest.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
when and from what did Jose form??? I just found out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
If I lived up there I'd be out looking for good trees to turn into lumber. A lot of good wood that could be recycled into usable lumber for woodworkers is just going to get turned into debris for the dumps or firewood. Penn/NY has lots of woodworkers.
After the 1938 storm there was a documented, concerted effort to harvest what could be had swiftly.
I'd be surprised if the same didn't happen, provided there is enough to make it worthwhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 151 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.