Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Well the storm is almost over here but i did get some video go to my page www.youtube.com/agentwhite8 to view the 4 vids click hd and like or dislike i dont care, my grandparents basement flooded 3 inches of water on the floor we got it all up, also it may not look like the winds were that fast in the video but look at the aftermath video and see how easily it brought down trees and limbs.
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Quoting chsstormgirl:


The invests in the Atlantic start at 90L; once they reach 99L, the numbers start over again at 90. Hope that helps!

Is there a reason for them using the 90s for Invests? I've always wondered why not 0-9 or 30-39, but everyone I've asked has only shrugged and said they didn't know.
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Quoting P451:
Went out and did a 3 mile walk/run. Took a couple of pics. Had some trees down in the 6-8" thick range. A couple of roads had been blocked but someone had chainsawed and moved the debris so people could pass. You can always count on random chainsaw guy to pull you through the rough times LOL.


Thanks for sharing your pics. Glad you're safe. My son used to live up there (Mayopac, NY) when he worked for IBM (T.J. Watson Research Ctr), but moved to NC... but in Raleigh area.

I heard that the Tappan Zee bridge is closed due to flooding! Wow!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


At any rate, remember that it takes a while for the whole story to come out after something like this; it may be a day or two or more before we know everything that happened...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, and you said it was unlikely you had to prepare for Irene when it was in the Central Atlantic...You guys got a hurricane.

I'm just messing with you :P
well said!.see my post # 121
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Quoting reedzone:
Irene will be one for the record books for sure.. Winds at 75 mph. all the way up to northern NJ. While the actual eye made landfall in NYC as a TS, Hurricane force winds were reported from NYC to Western Long Island.


Not a reliable map. From last night's discussion:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.
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Quoting necanicumwoman:
I am disapppointed with this blog entry and with the news coverage of Irene's landfall in New York in general. After all the advance information on what could happen I expected some details on what actually did happen. TV coverage is almost entirely talking heads making general comments with little actual footage or specific information on what happened where. I saw a little bit of people wading through water somewhere in New York. They didn't say where. Some waves splashing over the sea wall in R.I after the storm has passed. I live on the west coast - turned on the TV at 9 - is it already old news, they can't show or talk about what happened at the Battery? Is there any video of the Battery or lower Manhattan at landfall? Did any water get into the subway or the trains/tunnels under the rivers? Exactly where are there power outages? Exactly where in the metro area was there flooding? I used to live there and know a lot of people there, including my son. I want some information. TV is a visual medium, but you might as well listen to the radio, with as little visuals as they give. It's frustrating.

There is also very little on the internet. With a lot of digging I found a Con Ed map of power outages in the NYC metro area. I found out that most of Lindenhurst, a south shore suburb of 28,000 people, is under water. A fair number of comments that there was too much hype, that the preparation and precautions were excessive. This is just dumb. If the storm surge had been a little bit higher or the eye had tracked a little further west and all these preparations had not been made, there would have been a loud complaints that nothing had been done. Twitter - forget about it. Dumb and Dumber.

Jeff, I figure you're just tired and will do a more detailed blog with some juicy links and videos later. Thanks for all your work. The TV news is another story - I expect to be disappointed with them.
As reported by CNN, there thankfully wasn't much flooding, never close to getting into the subways or disrupting power. There's some puddles left in Battery Park. Along the east river and Hudson there's minor "flooding" that's effecting the pedestrian pathways. No big deal. It could have been a lot worse had it not weakened after NC.
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Quoting necanicumwoman:
I am disapppointed with this blog entry and with the news coverage of Irene's landfall in New York in general. After all the advance information on what could happen I expected some details on what actually did happen. TV coverage is almost entirely talking heads making general comments with little actual footage or specific information on what happened where. I saw a little bit of people wading through water somewhere in New York. They didn't say where. Some waves splashing over the sea wall in R.I after the storm has passed. I live on the west coast - turned on the TV at 9 - is it already old news, they can't show or talk about what happened at the Battery? Is there any video of the Battery or lower Manhattan at landfall? Did any water get into the subway or the trains/tunnels under the rivers? Exactly where are there power outages? Exactly where in the metro area was there flooding? I used to live there and know a lot of people there, including my son. I want some information. TV is a visual medium, but you might as well listen to the radio, with as little visuals as they give. It's frustrating.

There is also very little on the internet. With a lot of digging I found a Con Ed map of power outages in the NYC metro area. I found out that most of Lindenhurst, a south shore suburb of 28,000 people, is under water. A fair number of comments that there was too much hype, that the preparation and precautions were excessive. This is just dumb. If the storm surge had been a little bit higher or the eye had tracked a little further west and all these preparations had not been made, there would have been a loud complaints that nothing had been done. Twitter - forget about it. Dumb and Dumber.

Jeff, I figure you're just tired and will do a more detailed blog with some juicy links and videos later. Thanks for all your work. The TV news is another story - I expect to be disappointed with them.

Wait: if you expect to be disappointed in the media for a lack of coverage, and they indeed have that lack of coverage, you can't rightly say they've disappointed, can you? ;-)

At any rate, remember that it takes a while for the whole story to come out after something like this; it may be a day or two or more before we know everything that happened...
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
August: Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia easily. 7 storms possible. Record is 8 in 2004.



we have not had Katia yet so there for you cant add here too AUGS
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It's interesting that the Euro shows the ridge building it and sending 92L (Katia?) to the west.
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Quoting ncstorm:
18Z NOGAPS is much farther south with 92L
Link
no like NOGAPS...not my friend anymore ;(
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i think its safe too say the E pac is done for the season
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August: Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia easily. 7 storms possible. Record is 8 in 2004.
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane Irene has also made history in being the first Hurricane to make landfall in the USA since Ike in 2008. Ida in 2009, technically did not make landfall as a Hurricane.

Irene is also the first Hurricane to hit the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Irene will be known for her massive surge and flooding and there was a good couple of wind damage reported. Hurricane Force winds from North Carolina to New York, which is pretty intense. Pressure of a Category 3 storm = very Intense and large storm. This was the Northeast USAs version of Hurricane Ike.
My man Reed telling it like it is!!.It is almost certain that Irene will be retired.
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104 at my house ALREADY -12:41 pm.....3 miles north downtown Houston. We may surpass the all time historical iah record of 109 which as Dr. Masters said was tied yesterday. This time yesterday I was at 103 degrees. My outside lawn furniture is too sit on..:>)
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I am disapppointed with this blog entry and with the news coverage of Irene's landfall in New York in general. After all the advance information on what could happen I expected some details on what actually did happen. TV coverage is almost entirely talking heads making general comments with little actual footage or specific information on what happened where. I saw a little bit of people wading through water somewhere in New York. They didn't say where. Some waves splashing over the sea wall in R.I after the storm has passed. I live on the west coast - turned on the TV at 9 - is it already old news, they can't show or talk about what happened at the Battery? Is there any video of the Battery or lower Manhattan at landfall? Did any water get into the subway or the trains/tunnels under the rivers? Exactly where are there power outages? Exactly where in the metro area was there flooding? I used to live there and know a lot of people there, including my son. I want some information. TV is a visual medium, but you might as well listen to the radio, with as little visuals as they give. It's frustrating.

There is also very little on the internet. With a lot of digging I found a Con Ed map of power outages in the NYC metro area. I found out that most of Lindenhurst, a south shore suburb of 28,000 people, is under water. A fair number of comments that there was too much hype, that the preparation and precautions were excessive. This is just dumb. If the storm surge had been a little bit higher or the eye had tracked a little further west and all these preparations had not been made, there would have been a loud complaints that nothing had been done. Twitter - forget about it. Dumb and Dumber.

Jeff, I figure you're just tired and will do a more detailed blog with some juicy links and videos later. Thanks for all your work. The TV news is another story - I expect to be disappointed with them.
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Quoting atl134:
"Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
"

If Newark set a record and Philly's record is the highest since Newark's from 1843... then wouldn't Newark's record this month be higher than the old Newark one?


Sorry, you're right, Newark should still be the champ because NYC and Philadelphia are no where close to Newark's old record.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I have a question and I hope you think it's not a stupid one...

Why is it that all the times a hurricane or TS forms and get the wind speeds let say 70, 85, 115, 160 etc... and not numbers like 73, 88, 104, 157 etc.

What i'm trying to say is that the NHC always uses numbers ending in 0 or 5 not 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,8 or 9. But they do for pressure using all 9 numbers as in 954, 917 etc and not 930, 945, 1000...
does someone understand??? I would like to know the answer for that


Not a stupid question at all. Bothered me too. The reason is that the "official" wind measurements are measured in knots. So when you convert knot measurements to mph there are certain number combinations that cannot occur.
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172. mbjjm
Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane Irene has also made history in being the first Hurricane to make landfall in the USA since Ike in 2008. Ida in 2009, technically did not make landfall as a Hurricane.

Irene is also the first Hurricane to hit the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Irene will be known for her massive surge and flooding and there was a good couple of wind damage reported. Hurricane Force winds from North Carolina to New York, which is pretty intense. Pressure of a Category 3 storm = very Intense and large storm. This was the Northeast USAs version of Hurricane Ike.


Reed, Bastardi,Cnn,Twc peas in a pod.
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171. beell
"it's time to grab the bull by the tail and look it right in the eye"
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane Irene has also made history in being the first Hurricane to make landfall in the USA since Ike in 2008. Ida in 2009, technically did not make landfall as a Hurricane.

Irene is also the first Hurricane to hit the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Irene will be known for her massive surge and flooding and there was a good couple of wind damage reported. Hurricane Force winds from North Carolina to New York, which is pretty intense. Pressure of a Category 3 storm = very Intense and large storm. This was the Northeast USAs version of Hurricane Ike.


Reed... I havent seen any surge levels above 9 feet...I hate to say it and I'm not bashing you but Ike was triple that in surge values
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Bermuda-Jose

12:00 PM 82 °F - 75 °F 75% 29.94 in 9 mi SE 27.6 mph - - Rain Light Rain Showers
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Quoting atl134:
"Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
"

If Newark set a record and Philly's record is the highest since Newark's from 1843... then wouldn't Newark's record this month be higher than the old Newark one?


Both Philly and Newark broke the old record, but Philly is higher. I want to know why NYC, with 19.68", isn't the winner.
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Hurricane Irene has also made history in being the first Hurricane to make landfall in the USA since Ike in 2008. Ida in 2009, technically did not make landfall as a Hurricane.

Irene is also the first Hurricane to hit the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Irene will be known for her massive surge and flooding and there was a good couple of wind damage reported. Hurricane Force winds from North Carolina to New York, which is pretty intense. Pressure of a Category 3 storm = very Intense and large storm. This was the Northeast USAs version of Hurricane Ike.
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166. beell
but put your shoes in someone who lives up north

I like that part, reed. That will be added to my quote list.

: - )
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165. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:
18Z NOGAPS is much farther south with 92L
Link

you meant 12z
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As we enter September, I have a bad feeling for the Caribbean and Florida. The waters are so warm.
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163. BDAwx
near tropical storm/tropical storm conditions are occurring in Bermuda now.Bermuda AWOS Commissioner's Point gusted to 53kts at higher than official observation elevation. All is good so far.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Not true. They predicted many recurving storms with monotonous regularity last year from many days in advance.

Irene's path from the Bahamas to New England was predicted with exquisite accuracy.
Don't quot him.I have that thing on ignore.
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I have a question and I hope you think it's not a stupid one...

Why is it that all the times a hurricane or TS forms and get the wind speeds let say 70, 85, 115, 160 etc... and not numbers like 73, 88, 104, 157 etc.

What i'm trying to say is that the NHC always uses numbers ending in 0 or 5 not 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,8 or 9. But they do for pressure using all 9 numbers as in 954, 917 etc and not 930, 945, 1000...
does someone understand??? I would like to know the answer for that
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"Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
"

If Newark set a record and Philly's record is the highest since Newark's from 1843... then wouldn't Newark's record this month be higher than the old Newark one?
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12Z CMC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
Quoting nostorminflorida:
STOP ALREADY NO ONE CARES THEY HAVE NO CLUE WHAT ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL DO OR WHERE THEY WILL GO SO STOP UNTIL ITS 24 HOURS NEAR LAND


Not true. They predicted many recurving storms with monotonous regularity last year from many days in advance.

Irene's path from the Bahamas to New England was predicted with exquisite accuracy.
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Quoting P451:
Video to go with Post #21


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58leYRHXJec



This is usually a lazy stream a foot or two deep.



WOW! Impressive
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Quoting Dennis8:


Good Job sir..win some we lose some in forecasting


Sorry, I just wanted to make a point to people that I was not comparing Katrina with Irene. Though Irene is no small storm and will be retired.
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Quoting Relix:
92L should turn North and pass well over 500 miles to the north of the islands. Seems unlikely a hit will happen especially with climatology against it.

It seems not, due to high pressure
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Quoting Dennis8:

NEW ORLEANS (AP)

Six years after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, the New Orleans neighborhood that was hardest hit still looks like a ghost town. Redevelopment has been slow in coming, and the neighborhood has just 5,500 residents — one-third its pre-Katrina population.


Really sad...Wish that storm never even formed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting reedzone:
You know, Irene may have not been another "Katrina", but put your shoes in someone who lives up north, rarely even gets Tropical Storms now and days.. Cut the crap! Irene made history whether you like it or not, NYC did receive Hurricane force winds, as well as Western Long Island, according to the NHC map. I'm getting tired of the hate mail for just showing the reality of the storm. It had a PRESSURE of a Category 3 storm, didn't say it WAS a Category 3 storm. How you youngsters go outside and play for a while before you attack people who have more knowledge and are more mature then you. Irene will be known as one for the costliest storms on record, BEHIND Katrina due to the 650 trees uprooted in the Tri-State area alone, lot more elsewhere, the dozen death, toll probably gonna rise a bit more, damage form the erratic slow movement of the storm, and the massive evacuations along the East Coast. Levi himself even said this storm would make history and is a very intense storm and was not to be treated as a low end Category 1 storm. Sorry for the rant but I got alot of hate mail just recently saying I'm a doomcaster and stuff... Don't forget who predicted this to be an East Coast storm when everyone was sure it was headed in the Gulf.


Good Job sir..win some we lose some in forecasting
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Quoting Tazmanian:

round 1


90L bust

91L bust

94L bust

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust

97L bust

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L absorbed by Gert.

93L be comes HARVEY

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust

97L be comes Irene

98L bust

99L bust



round 3

90L be comes TD 10

91L be comes JOSE

92L ???




here is where we stan so far i wounder if i will get too round 4 or 5 this year the way its going


92L missed classification the first two times, will Round 3 92L break that streak? We will see...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
12Z NOGAPS is much farther south with 92L
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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