Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting Gorty:
So now it is Katia tracking! Wouldn't it be amazing if she forms in August! Will that be like 7 named storms this month?


Yes, that would be seven named storms if 92L became Katia over the coming days.

August: Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, KATIA
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Do TD's count as CV storms though? Is there an intensity requirement as well as location requirement?
It's considered a Cape Verde-type cyclone as long as it develops within 1000km of the islands (620mi). It then goes on to say that it must become a hurricane before the Caribbean, but since 10L isn't a Cape Verde-type hurricane, I wouldn't know how to categorize it. Pretty much is a Cape Verde-type depression lol.

This FAQ was conducted by Chris Landsea of the NHC, btw.
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296. Gorty
So now it is Katia tracking! Wouldn't it be amazing if she forms in August! Will that be like 7 named storms this month?
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Take it from somebody who lives just north of coastal southwestern CT.... this storm was in no way like a Nor'Easter. It was much worse! Those who claim there have been worse Nor'Easters obviously aren't around here to see the damage. It's not just flooding, there's tons of wind damage as well. Even a few houses with severe structural damage per local news coverage. People saying this storm was no big deal obviously do not live where it really took its toll... Southern New England. Not even the Blizzard of 12/26/10, which had Hurricane force wind gusts over a small area... was nearly this severe, and the winds in that only lasted for 2 or 3 hours. Not to mention the actually frightening thunderstorms we got with the outer bands, followed by sheets of rain for 10 hours. Nope.... no Nor'Easter could hold up to Irene, at least in terms of this area. A Nor'Easter has never pushed water half a mile inland, not even the '92 "Superstorm"
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In the Northeast dam Collapse is a real danger, due to 100-150 year old dams abound.
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Quoting FLdewey:
BREAKING: Dam Failure Chester, MA (HAMPDEN) Westfield River damn has collapsed


Speaking of dams - I was watching TWC around 1:26pm CST during Bloomberg's briefing and they flashed on the screen "Breaking news - NY dam failed - people being asked to leave NY" (not in these words but something like this) - a second later it was off the screen so even though this is a diff state, maybe someone got their locations wrong.. don't see any other mentions of it.
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Gusts on Bermuda are surpassing 40-45 mph. In this case, the National Hurricane Center made a good call on declaring this a tropical cyclone.

14:55 Mostly Cloudy Showers S 29/39 (33/45) 28(83) 77 1012 / 29.89

Pressure dropping, winds rising.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
Very nice that 92L seems to be developing quickly increases odds of a recurve
Not all storms that develpe quick recurve (Ivan)!!
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Wow...up to 70% chance on 92L...Katia is looming:/ I really dont want another hurricane up the east coast. didnt want one in the first place.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Some word on SE Virginia flooding: It looks like it may be worse than Isabel, but well short of Floyd.

Link

The storm surge was a few inches short of Isabel's.

And, apparently, it was not just me that noticed a lot of wind on the backside.

NC12 to Hatteras is washed out.

An apparent tornado tore through Sandbridge.


And and on a lighter note apparently this blog wasn't the only place where people decided to publicly show their rear ends.

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Quoting FLdewey:
BREAKING: Dam Failure Chester, MA (HAMPDEN) Westfield River damn has collapsed


link please????
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Quoting FLdewey:
BREAKING: Dam Failure Chester, MA (HAMPDEN) Westfield River damn has collapsed


Do you have a link for this? I can't seem to find anything. Tia.
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276. mbjjm
Reported dam failure in East Becket

Dam at Big Robin Lake in East Becket

Updated: Sunday, 28 Aug 2011, 1:25 PM EDT
Published : Sunday, 28 Aug 2011, 1:25 PM EDT



BECKET, Mass. (WWLP) - The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for central Berkshire County and in Western Hampden and Hampshire Counties after a trained weather spotter reported that the dam at Big Robin Lake in East Becket had failed.

The water from the dam will be rushing into Walker Brook West Branch of the Westfield River, toward Chester and Huntington.

If you are near any of these bodies of water, you are urged to be vigilant and seek higher ground if necessary.
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I think the NHC center did a great job. They had the track dead on days in advance. As for intensity Irene did have cat 2 or 3 pressures the biggest factor in strength. Size of the storm and other factors kept the strength down. remember this is a "FORECAST" and the NHC did an outstanding job. Tax dollars well spent
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Quoting FLdewey:
BREAKING: Dam Failure Chester, MA (HAMPDEN) Westfield River damn has collapsed
Did anyone hear from Gordy, he lives in that area, thats in the Springfield area.
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Maybe, just maybe, we may finally learn that comparing current systems to past storms never pans out. Weather changes daily, different atmospheric conditions prevail and patterns are never exactly the same from one to the next. I understand saying "Ike like" or Katrina like" to emphasize the danger of a system to an area and its inhabitants but this can also de-synthesize the general public to the dangers each and every system may possess. Have a safe and sound day folks... I'm off to do PDA's
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Bermuda TS Gusts Jose

Hurricane Center calls it right

2:55 PM 82.4 °F 89.5 °F 75.2 °F 79% 29.89 in 6.2 mi South 33.4 mph 44.9 mph N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm gonna say this was the NE's version of Gustav. Not as bad as people thought it would be, but still a bad storm and probably warrants retirement.

I haven't seen any aftermath photos that are in the same league as some of Ike's yet. Maybe I just missed them or they aren't available yet. Not saying Irene wasn't bad though.

*Note: before someone flames me, just because I said it wasn't as bad as people thought it would be, doesn't mean I'm downplaying the storm.. just telling the truth. People did think it would be worse.


Not really!

People who knew what they were taking about here on this board were speaking in mathematical (statistical) probabilities. Not ...Good/Worse/Bad!

The new lesson I learned from this board over the last several days is the number of people who comment here over and over and over and don't understand statistical probabilities and more troublesome ... They don't know that they don't know anything about statistically probabilities.
::
GP
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It did. For a cyclone to be a considered a Cape Verde-type storm is must develop within a 620 mile circumference of the islands. 10L develops 435 miles southwest of the islands.


Do TD's count as CV storms though? Is there an intensity requirement as well as location requirement?
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THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF PITTSFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JOSE...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES
WEST OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM S OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE...AND FOR
CHESAPEAKE BAY...IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK
ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN
CANADA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND ISLAND SOUND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS. THE
HIGHEST SURGES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


WOW. Didn't see them raising it that much. Looks like this might be our first CV storm.. Unless TD 10 counts.
It did. For a cyclone to be a considered a Cape Verde-type storm is must develop within a 620 mile circumference of the islands. 10L developed 435 miles southwest of the islands.
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this is from IGOR


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM



this is from are storm now


2nd biges ???


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they use the highest set of numbers so that you NEVER have to worry about the storm count to reach that high .. when an invest is renumbered to a storm it is given the number of the TD... like 01.Alex was last year or like 09.Irene this year. 80s are used for testing and 90s are used for invests so we could have 79 storms and never worry about overlapping

Huh. Okay, I guess that makes sense. It seems like having the TS label would be enough, but I guess this way gives better clarity without it. Thanks for the answer!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.