Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Keeper--- that was priceless
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Cyclone Activity as of 8/28/00-11:

2000:

* Alberto (C1)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (C1)

2001:

* Allison (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (TS)

2002:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (TS)
* Cristobal (TS)

2003:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (TS)
* Claudette (C1)
* Danny (C1)
* Erika (C1)
* Fabian (C4)

2004:

* Alex (TS)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Charley (C4)
* Danielle (C2)

2005:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (C1)
* Dennis (C4)
* Emily (C5)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C2)
* Jose (TS)
* Katrina (C5)
* Lee (TS)

2006:


* Alberto (TS)
* Unnamed (TS)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (TS)
* Ernesto (C1)

2007:

* Andrea (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (C5)
* Erin (TS)

2008:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (C3)
* Cristobal (TS)
* Dolly (C2)
* Edouard (TS)
* Fay (TS)
* Gustav (C4)
* Hanna (C1)

2009:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (C4)
* Claudette (TS)
* Danny (TS)

2010:

* Alex (C2)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Colin (TS)
* Danielle (C4)
* Earl (C4)

2011:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (TS)
* Don (TS)
* Emily (TS)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C3)




you for got Jose
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Quoting reedzone:


Had to quote this one.. Again, try living in this guys shoes who actually LIVES up in the Northeast USA. Irene is a Historic Storm, one for the record books and retired!
,i have,i talkd to grandma up in westchester about 30 miles north of nyc,she said alot of rain and gusty winds ,but she's seen worse,she's lived thier for 45 yrs
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
982mb in 120 hours. Hurricane Katia.



Goes down to 949mb 24 hours later. Wow.



Looks like a Danielle ('10) setup? Thoughts?
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Quoting nostorminflorida:
WATCH OUT NOW FOR 92 ITS 12 DAYS OUT AND ALREADY THEY SAY FLORIDA AGAIN LIKE EMILY AND IRENE LMAO


Mommy away today and you got play on her computer like a big boy? Awwwwwwwwww how cute.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I forgot to add Harvey.
Harvey went into central.Well it was the only one so far this season.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this is from IGOR


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM



this is from are storm now


2nd biges ???


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.


Largest Atlantic hurricanes by gale diameter
Rank Storm Season Diameter
(mi)
1 Igor 2010 920
2 Olga 2001 863
3 Lili 1996 806
4 Karl 2004 777
5 Helene 2006 748
6 Irene 1999 719
7 Gabrielle 1989 690
Florence 2006 690
9 Wilma 2005 662
10 Keith 1988 633
Grace 1991 633
Link

we'd haveto wait until the next forecast advisory when they update the winds per quadrent inorder to tell.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


whatever site you are using doesn't allow linking or picture sharing. You might be able to see it, nobody else can.
Yeah, I forgot. Uploaded both the images to imageshack.
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389. mbjjm
Quoting FLdewey:
Are you on commission Reed? Do you paid by the mph or something?


I agree, He was vocal in disagreeing in Dr.Masters winds and impact forecast for NJ,Ny and northward saying Irene would bring hurricane winds, which he was wrong.
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Quoting ironbanks:
Pic of NOLA after Katrina, hope to never see that anywhere ever again



I remember after Katrina in New Orleans, the media was saying not as bad as they thought until reports started coming in about the levees..rivers and dams still have a story to tell with Irene..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15091
Tropical Cyclone Activity as of 8/28/00-11:

2000:

* Alberto (C1)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (C1)

2001:

* Allison (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (TS)

2002:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (TS)
* Cristobal (TS)

2003:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (TS)
* Claudette (C1)
* Danny (C1)
* Erika (C1)
* Fabian (C4)

2004:

* Alex (TS)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Charley (C4)
* Danielle (C2)

2005:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (C1)
* Dennis (C4)
* Emily (C5)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C2)
* Jose (TS)
* Katrina (C5)
* Lee (TS)

2006:


* Alberto (TS)
* Unnamed (TS)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (TS)
* Ernesto (C1)

2007:

* Andrea (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (C5)
* Erin (TS)

2008:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (C3)
* Cristobal (TS)
* Dolly (C2)
* Edouard (TS)
* Fay (TS)
* Gustav (C4)
* Hanna (C1)

2009:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (C4)
* Claudette (TS)
* Danny (TS)

2010:

* Alex (C2)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Colin (TS)
* Danielle (C4)
* Earl (C4)

2011:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (TS)
* Don (TS)
* Emily (TS)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C3)
* Jose (TS)
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Quoting oceanbug:
Irene isn't finished yet. She's still in northern New England and eastern Canada.

How are our blog friends in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia doing?


Well, here in North Central Vermont about 65 miles south of the Canadian border, it's still raining hard but the wind has yet to pick up much. We lost our old iconic sugarhouse to Hurricane Ike when the tail end of it came through here after battering Galveston and knocked over a giant white pine on top of it. That was a total surprise. This time we've got everything buttoned down (hopefully). One of our cars is in the barn and the other is sitting in the middle of a hay field as far away from possible blow-downs as we can get it. I see from the TV news (WCAX)that southern Vermont has major flooding going on. I'll keep you informed of further developments.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
friend of mine in queens posted this a short time ago as well,ll
img src="310876 10150364168271224 752541223 10161191 5920">
Stillwaiting, what part of Queens is that please?
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nostorminflorida

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know what you're looking at on there, let's hope it's a fish. But maybe Tx is getting a little love. Lol. Good afternoon NC, all.


Hey!! actually its still running..lets hope it keeps out to sea involving no land masses..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15091
Quoting twincomanche:
If there's no flooding in the subways how come they aren't back up and running?


New York Transit Still Paralyzed
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And the NHC has done it AGAIN! Another Useless TC named...


Why "useless" exactly? Did you see some of the posts above - sustained tropical storm force winds on Bermuda already.
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Pic of NOLA after Katrina, hope to never see that anywhere ever again

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Quoting washingtonian115:
So far the storms have liked going to the islands and then make a northeast turn going for the east coast.Don was the only exception so far this season to go into the gulf.
I forgot to add Harvey.
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i really wish you guys stop talking about Emily its starting too get old and annyoing
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Quoting shellyweathers:
92l is developing quickly. There are a few models that put it in the direction of the Bahamas, so Florida would have to watch this system carefully. I'm surprised Mr. Masters didn't mention those models.


Which models show that 92L heads towards the Bahamas? This morning is full of surprises...92L developing quickly (althought it still looks kinda disorganized)...and then JOSE?!

Does anyone think that the classification of JOSE today was a joke....it still looks like an Invest. I was completely surprised...even the NHC had this thing at 0% in the tropical weather outlooks....I am confused...LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
982mb in 120 hours. Hurricane Katia.



whatever site you are using doesn't allow linking or picture sharing. You might be able to see it, nobody else can.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
drama drama drama

looks i picked the wrong week
to quit smoking grass
I chew gum or listen to music while going on the blog.
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Quoting doncooke:
Has a tropical storm ever made it to Greenland or Iceland before?


Try this:

Storm tracks 1851-2005: Link

Three extratropical landfalls at TS strength, one hurricane near-miss dissapation (near Greenland).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
982mb in 120 hours. Hurricane Katia.








did you forget lol you can hot link from there any more
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Watch this one, Emily & Irene should be examples of where this might track.
So far the storms have liked going to the islands and then make a northeast turn going for the east coast.Don was the only exception so far this season to go into the gulf.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
,take a deeep breath,its going to o.k.


No worries, I'm fine... and calm. But it is frustrating to see so many people claim that this was not a disaster, and comparing it to a Nor'Easter is just ridiculous.
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982mb in 120 hours. Hurricane Katia.



Goes down to 949mb 24 hours later. Wow.

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friend of mine in queens posted this a short time ago as well,ll
img src="310876 10150364168271224 752541223 10161191 5920">
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92l is developing quickly. There are a few models that put it in the direction of the Bahamas, so Florida would have to watch this system carefully. I'm surprised Mr. Masters didn't mention those models.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good Afternoon Everyone,
I see Irene is becoming Post-Tropical. And the NHC has done it AGAIN! Another Useless TC named... 10 Named Storms, One Hurricane, One Major Hurricane.
Though With 92L at 70%, NHC thinking it could be a big storm to contend with. Could see the record go to 9-2-1, or even 9-2-2, but way to early to know Track or Intensity for that matter.



right now its 10-1-1
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good Afternoon Everyone,
I see Irene is becoming Post-Tropical. And the NHC has done it AGAIN! Another Useless TC named... 10 Named Storms, One Hurricane, One Major Hurricane.
Though With 92L at 70%, NHC thinking it could be a big storm to contend with. Could see the record go to 9-2-1, or even 9-2-2, but way to early to know Track or Intensity for that matter.


It would be 11-2-1 or 11-2-2.

And we can't just not name systems because it's "useless." If a system is a tropical cyclone, it's a tropical cyclone...no way around it.
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Looks like Little Robin Lake spills into another lake. The dambreak may just cause the downstream lake to rise if its dam is able to hold. If not, then we could have a larger situation with two lakes emptying into Walker Branch.

Link

The Little Robin Lake downstream area looks somewhat populated, as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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