Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.
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2650. 7544
cat 2 by thurs hmmmm
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Da dum... da dum...da dum...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why?


I suspect it is going to ride along the Bermuda High, ridging should set it up so it goes WNW for at least the next 5 days, if not more before making a sudden Northern jog E of Bermuda.
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2647. HCW
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You mean to say that TD12 looks weak on the southeastern quadrant right, because the whole western semicircle looks great, the eastern side is the one struggling do to the easterly shear.
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2645. 7544
with all these trofs due to come down in sept if a storm does get into the gulf can we see a wilma track wwith the trofs pushing systems ne into fla tia
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Quoting MrstormX:
I think 012L going to go WNW, and "fish"...


Why?



Quoting capquest:
Is TD 12 and Invest 92 the same storm?


Yes, Invest 92L was renamed as TD #12.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32229
Is TD 12 and Invest 92 the same storm?
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I think 012L going to go WNW, and "fish"...
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2641. beell
In case some of you missed it, the Colorado State University Tropical Cyclone Operational Model Guidance (TCGP) page will cease to exist tomorrow, August 30th.

Replacement site from NCAR is available here:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/curre nt

One immediate benefit from the change:
"Bloggers will be interested to hear that the TCGP site does not feature the same prohibitions on hot linking that the old site had. All plots for numbered systems (depressions or higher) will have a permanent URL that blogs may freely link to. Please be aware that all content on the new site falls under the UCAR Terms of Use. In general commercial use is prohibited."
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16713
Good morning everyone.


On this dreaded day, six years ago, the costliest hurricane in USA history made landfall. Taking 1,836 lives and causing $108 billion in damage, Katrina made landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana as a 125 MPH Category 3 hurricane.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32229
TD 12 is still struggling to have clouds wrap around it's southwest. his is due to 20-30 khots easterly shear. i cannot see td 12 forming ijto a ts today as forecast by the hhc. the weak td will track west with the low level wind flow. There is a big anticyclone tothe west of td 12 which will make it more conducive for further development. expect td 12 to track west for the next few days
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2635. A4Guy
Quoting Drakoen:
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.


I read that in the TD12 discussion...but it seens as though their track is right along the consensu, and is not very different from the models.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
they were having a discussion on the WC this morning if IRENE should be retired....no question in my mind IRENE should be retired could be the most expensive in terms of damage ever to hit the east coast but the most important thing is IRENE killed 22 people as she ravaged the eastcoast...

26 dead and counting. Floods are still active, and the power line danger will persist for a few days yet. Link
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REPOST: 5:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


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GFS Ensemble split at the end, some continue NW track, others recurve



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2627. Brock31
All the models seem to show the high over the Atlantic braking down on its west side and pulling TD 12 north. All the models develope it, but also, show it to not be a CONUS threat......yet
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2626. ackee
Quoting Brock31:
Thats another big blob about to come off Africa behind TD 12. A little higher in Latitude. I wonder what it will do when it makes it to the water?
the fact that it is coming off at a HIGHER latitude not too concern
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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect...
Conditions at 4:17 AM

Weather: Fog w/ moderate rain

Temperature: 52°F

Wind: SE 24 mph

Visibility: 75 feet

Relative Humidity: 100%

Station Pressue: 23.79" falling

Ground Conditions: Wet
24 Hour Statistics

Maximum Temperature: 56°F

Minimum Temperature: 48°F

Peak Wind Gust: W 49 mph

Average Wind Speed: 23.7 mph

Liquid Precipitation: 0.00"

Snowfall: 0.0"
Almanac Data

Record High: 70°F (1952)

Record Low: 23°F (1986)

Average Daily Temperature: 46°F

Average Monthly Melted Precipitation: 8.08

Average Monthly Snowfall: 0.20

Total Snowfall So Far This Month: 0.6"

Average Monthly Winds: 24.6

Sunrise: 5:57

Sunset: 7:35
Forecast Discussion

Hurricane Irene will make its way northward into New England today, producing torrential rains and very windy conditions atop the higher summits. Irene will make landfall along the Connecticut coastline this morning, but will spread bands of heavy rainfall well in advance of its center. The periods of rain will become progressively heavier as the day wears on and Irene's eye comes extremely close to a direct pass over the White Mountains. Intense thunderstorms are often imbedded within the structure of a tropical cyclone, so rumbles of thunder and dangerous lightning are not out of the question as well. Wind speeds will pick up quickly through the day, gusting near hurricane force by afternoon. Winds are predicted to drop off around dusk as Irene's calm eye perhaps makes its way overhead. However, as Irene passes north of the region and begins to transition to an extratropical storm, winds will pick up tremendously, gusting well in excess of 100 mph--perhaps as high as 130 mph--in the wee hours of Monday. Temperatures will take a nose dive as well as the winds sharply shift towards the west and pull in chillier air, with overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s. Rain will taper to showers by daybreak, and come to an end early tomorrow, with the summits emerging from the fog tomorrow to reveal mostly sunny skies. Irene's fury will be in full force today, dumping as much as 6-8" of rain atop the higher summits. Tropical cyclones generally do not generate particularly significant wind events on Mt. Washington. However, Irene will be in the unique state of transition between tropical and extratropical system as it passes over and to the north. Should this transition occur quick enough, wind speeds will be on the higher end of the forecasted numbers, perhaps even a bit higher, as a tremendous pressure gradient forms. However, a slower or later transition will translate to less formidable wind speeds tonight. Nevertheless, at minimum, overnight winds will regularly gust in excess of 100 mph. However, the potential is there for a much more significant wind event.
Mike Carmon
Observer
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2623. Brock31
Thats another big blob about to come off Africa behind TD 12. A little higher in Latitude. I wonder what it will do when it makes it to the water?
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2622. ackee
well I HONESTLY THINK TD#12 WILL track much further WEST and south than what the models are showing now
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All I can say, down here in Houston, is COME ON COOLER WEATHER. My station, KTXHUMBL5, recorded 109.9 yesterday and a whopping 111.1 on Saturday. We are watching the oak trees die and the pines are not far behind. I know it's crazy, but people down here are starting to hope for a hurricane, or at least a slow moving tropical storm.
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2620. 3211976

Quoting ElConando:


I think you mean develop below 10N because not many storms become Hurricanes South of 10N. Last one to do so I think was Ivan.
Correct
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2619. ncstorm
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Who's developing TD12 besides the GFS? GFS takes her near Maine way out in time. Are other models keeping her further south?


Mostly all the models are developing it into a hurricane but the CMC is the only model that brings it west..all the others turn it out to sea..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15632
Quoting 3211976:
During the past 40 years no hurricane that developed below 10N has become a fish storm. In fact all of them have hit the US and one of them hit PR.

All of them have pas over PR or South of PR.

Let see if TD 10 changes that historical tendency.

If that Cut off Low near Bermuda doesn't get too strong or develops into a tropical ciclone  PR will be in trouble.


I think you mean develop below 10N because not many storms become Hurricanes South of 10N. Last one to do so I think was Ivan.
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2616. 3211976
During the past 40 years no hurricane that developed below 10N has become a fish storm. In fact all of them have hit the US and one of them hit PR.

All of them have pas over PR or South of PR.

Let see if TD 10 changes that historical tendency.

If that Cut off Low near Bermuda doesn't get too strong or develops into a tropical ciclone  PR will be in trouble.
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I must say the trails were nice and empty for a summer weekend.



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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning all,
I thought we might see Katia this morning, but I see not yet. My thoughts are with all those today who went through Katrina.


Also anniversary of Hurricane David destroying Dominica island with first landfall on 29 August 1979. Its 32 years ago, but as someone said on here,about some other storm, those memories stay with you a lifetime
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Interesting article - Damage State by State

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-28/irene-s- damage-a-state-by-state-look-at-deaths-flooding-po wer-outages.html

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2612. Brock31
Quoting Drakoen:
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.


Looks a bit ragged on the SW side, but has a fairly well developed LLC.

I'm watching this one closely.

Irene was just a teaser here in Wilmington NC. We are wayyy past due.
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Good morning. xkcd has a hurricane-related cartoon today: Link Hurricane Eggbeater? LOL
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
Drak, one just has to look at the flow in the deep tropics and look at the direction of the clouds. tere iis only a shift to the wnw/nw when you get to the islands. i have a suspicion that Kasia will be one of these deep cape verde systems that track into the caribbean
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2609. Grothar
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Quoting ElConando:


Models have gotten markedly better since 2004.


Doesn't mean they can't be wrong in long range
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Quoting Twinkster:
This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.




Models have gotten markedly better since 2004.
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2606. Grothar
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looks like the pattern of a strong high pressure will not be as strong as troughs dig in
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2604. kwgirl
Good morning all. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the people adversely affected by Irene. Thank God she lost some of her punch when she did or it could have been a lot worse. On a positive note, I found out this weekend that I am going to be a Grandma, FINALLY! I am so thrilled! Now back to watching the tropics.
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2603. Drakoen
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.
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2602. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.


There already is a Wunderstore!
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Well if the GFS has this hitting Maine or the Canadian Maritimes in it's early runs then it will more than likely be a threat from Texas to Florida.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.