Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting floodzonenc:
Afternoon all. Power is back on! Hope everyone came through the storm safely.

Still some trees to cut up and remove, but everyone is safe here. The drought certainly helped minimize flooding problems here... just hope that we don't get another one soon. Just east of Greenville, we got about 10 inches of rain. Winds were impressive in that they lasted a LONG time!


Where are you?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


*Cough Cough*

Nobody wants to see a track like that every again.Especially in Texas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So, according to that, the chances of curving out to sea are minimal?


I'm thinking she has more of a chance to come farther west than the models are showing. The Euro only goes out 10 days, but it keeps hinting at a farther west solution, while the GFS is relentless at taking it out to sea.

A positive NAO is supposed to be in place, and that means we should have a stronger A/B high. Weaknesses in the high will be harder to come by and I don't see it recurving as quickly as the GFS shows. A more gradual recurve seems more plausible, if it does at all.

Still sticking by my statement that the models are developing 92L too quickly. However, the quick development isn't as difficult to believe currently as it was with the past waves since the Eastern Atlantic is far more favorable this time of year.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Cyclone Activity as of 8/28/00-11:

2000:

* Alberto (C1)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (C1)

2001:

* Allison (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (TS)

2002:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (TS)
* Cristobal (TS)

2003:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (TS)
* Claudette (C1)
* Danny (C1)
* Erika (C1)
* Fabian (C4)

2004:

* Alex (TS)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Charley (C4)
* Danielle (C2)

2005:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (C1)
* Dennis (C4)
* Emily (C5)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C2)
* Jose (TS)
* Katrina (C5)
* Lee (TS)

2006:


* Alberto (TS)
* Unnamed (TS)
* Beryl (TS)
* Chris (TS)
* Debby (TS)
* Ernesto (C1)

2007:

* Andrea (TS)
* Barry (TS)
* Chantal (TS)
* Dean (C5)
* Erin (TS)

2008:

* Arthur (TS)
* Bertha (C3)
* Cristobal (TS)
* Dolly (C2)
* Edouard (TS)
* Fay (TS)
* Gustav (C4)
* Hanna (C1)

2009:

* Ana (TS)
* Bill (C4)
* Claudette (TS)
* Danny (TS)

2010:

* Alex (C2)
* Bonnie (TS)
* Colin (TS)
* Danielle (C4)
* Earl (C4)

2011:

* Arlene (TS)
* Bret (TS)
* Cindy (TS)
* Don (TS)
* Emily (TS)
* Franklin (TS)
* Gert (TS)
* Harvey (TS)
* Irene (C3)

Note- Isabel is missing in 2003
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


From what i'm seeing it could get pushed well North of the Islands and come back west or even Southwest and still enter through the straits
Indeed. A spread out subtropical ridge like that is dangerous for the United States.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


No worries, I'm fine... and calm. But it is frustrating to see so many people claim that this was not a disaster, and comparing it to a Nor'Easter is just ridiculous.
,just messn w/ya...im actually a fellow nutmega,i grew up in ledyard,disaster yes,the area dodged the bulletbas its said imagine conditions 3X what you had that was the forecast a few days ago with a cat 2 landfall in your area
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The Euro shows "Katia" going westward for some time.


Which model(s) shows 92L (Katia) going toward Bermuda like Dr. M hinted at in the above discussion?

I'd be careful to pre-name these Invests...LOL...I mean Jose freakishly popped up today...so who knows if 92L will actually be Lee or whatever (if TD 10's remnants become Katia magically...LOL)....
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Quoting Gorty:
@Methhurricanes

Me? Or is there a Gordy? Idk, maybe you just made a type and said Gordy by mistake.

But I got wind and rain, no flooding and no damage but my power was out for about 2 hours.
get out if you live near the Westfield River.
Whats a Meth Hurricane Gorty?
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


But then quickly recurving thanks to a trough near Puerto Rico.
There have been hint's though of the ridge building back in and a period of less trofiness(Yeah can't really spell trof)
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


From what i'm seeing it could get pushed well North of the Islands and come back west or even Southwest and still enter through the straits


*Cough Cough*

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About 10 river miles downstream from the dambreak location in Massachussetts. I think the spike was not from the dambreak but was from rainfall. Best guess is 1-2 hours before seeing water from the dam at this location.

It needs to get from the lake into Walker Brook, and from Walker Brook into the West Br. Westfield River.

Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
982mb in 120 hours. Hurricane Katia.



Goes down to 949mb 24 hours later. Wow.



I can see the images..Allan had said in one of his previous discussions that he was having issues with his images downloading..I dont think its a hotlinking issue..its just issues with his site itself..
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Wow.



Northwestern Massachusetts.
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Quoting doubtit:

The moon landing was fake and Kennedy was shot by aliens. Take your conspiracy theories elswhere.

The Federal Reserve and associated international bankers actually did Kennedy in. ;)
Member Since: August 6, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 209
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So, according to that, the chances of curving out to sea are minimal?


From what i'm seeing it could get pushed well North of the Islands and come back west or even Southwest and still enter through the straits
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The 8-10 day comparison of the GFS/Euro is still showing a bad setup for the Gulf of Mexico states. Even if Katia went north of the islands, it's not all that far-fetched to think she could get into the Gulf via an Ike route or a little farther north. With a ridge building over the New England states and the A/B ridge building west, it's not a good setup. Also, the Texas ridge continues to show signs of weakening.

The Euro shows "Katia" going westward for some time.
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Quoting ironbanks:
Pic of NOLA after Katrina, hope to never see that anywhere ever again


We saw something similar in PR...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nostorminflorida



thanks, my keyboard caps do not work anymore...

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The 8-10 day comparison of the GFS/Euro is still showing a bad setup for the Gulf of Mexico states. Even if Katia went north of the islands, it's not all that far-fetched to think she could get into the Gulf via an Ike route or a little farther north. With a ridge building over the New England states and the A/B ridge building west, it's not a good setup. Also, the Texas ridge continues to show signs of weakening.



So, according to that, the chances of curving out to sea are minimal?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gusts on Bermuda are surpassing 40-45 mph. In this case, the National Hurricane Center made a good call on declaring this a tropical cyclone.

14:55 Mostly Cloudy Showers S 29/39 (33/45) 28(83) 77 1012 / 29.89

Pressure dropping, winds rising.


WOW...just wow...and this sat. image at the same time shows NO CLOUDS over Bermuda....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

Jose is going down in my mind as one of the WEIRDEST TROPICAL CYCLONES EVER CLASSIFED!!! IMO.....
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Quoting ironbanks:
Pic of NOLA after Katrina, hope to never see that anywhere ever again



Apparently some on here wanted NYC to look like that, its really sick! can't believe people are upset that more damage wasn't done to this country's economic capital all i can say some peeps are sick.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Is it me, or has TD 10 redeveloped a surface circulation? 92L to the southeast.
Their is a wave behind that one to.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you for got Jose


Right! Thanks Taz!
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The 8-10 day comparison of the GFS/Euro is still showing a bad setup for the Gulf of Mexico states. Even if Katia went north of the islands, it's not all that far-fetched to think she could get into the Gulf via an Ike route or a little farther north. With a ridge building over the New England states and the A/B ridge building west, it's not a good setup. Also, the Texas ridge continues to show signs of weakening.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
am going too subway heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114707
Quoting FLdewey:
Are you on commission Reed? Do you paid by the mph or something?
, no,mb
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


No worries, I'm fine... and calm. But it is frustrating to see so many people claim that this was not a disaster, and comparing it to a Nor'Easter is just ridiculous.
No disrespect meant.....you made many many pertinent posts in the last few days, thank you....but I consider this a historical inconvenience. A disaster to me is when homes get swept away by the surge or wind, or more importantly when we see scores of deaths and hundreds of casualties. The story's not over yet, but it's not looking we're going to see that, thankfully. It could have been much worse.
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Sounds like home in northeast MA escaped any serious wind damage for the most part. Still a few more hours to go but just talked to the family and I guess one big tree got toppled in the yard, but thats about it. Surprisingly they haven't lost power. Only 11,130 without power in all of Essex County MA.
The big story will be the rainfall and subsequent flooding in the Northeast.


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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


No worries, I'm fine... and calm. But it is frustrating to see so many people claim that this was not a disaster, and comparing it to a Nor'Easter is just ridiculous.


Happens every storm. If you're not there you can't really know what it's like. People assume things from what coverage they do see. I can't really say how much coverage Rita had because I didn't have access to media for a while. But I assume there's a reason it's called the forgotten hurricane. After Ike, I saw one day of national coverage then it was the economy. It's frustrating for sure. But not new.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.