Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting Kearn:
where the heck did jose come from anyways? lol

A ULL formed out of Irene's butt. It touched down to the surface and thus Jose was born.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS takes Katia out to sea along with the UKMET and Nogaps.They show invest 92L going out to sea while the
Euro has it going further west.


Looks like it will go out to sea on the Euro at 192hrs there's a great big front fixing to sweep off the coast. Hope so any way. On a side note, that front is a lot farther east in Tx than yesterdays run. Goes any farther east we won't get this rain they've been talking about. Sigh. Wouldn't be surprised. Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
497. JLPR2
Well now, that was a surprise, 91L managed to snatch the name Jose. That is one persistent LLC. XD

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Super-trough comes in to save the day. 216 hours:

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
92L does not look like a true fish storm.



300h, aiming for Newfoundland after scraping Bermuda. (12z GFS)


Ooopss...I guess the GFS is not showing a storm over open waters (as thought in comment 473)...that's what I get for saying stuff before the model is posted...but that's because I don't have links to all the models...

Interesting...but still way too early to get specific with 92L....
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Any ideas on how Irene affected the high over Texas?
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What is going on with Jose's structure?
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Quoting SPLbeater:
why isnt there a floater for 92L? isit not available er somethin?


Their floaters can't go that far East.
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The Atlantic laughs at the EPAC right now.

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Is the EURO even finish yet..I dont see anything going out to sea..at least on Allan's site..
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


It wouldn't surprise me if the GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS models are right and have this going out to sea...climotologically these storms that form this close to Africa tend to recurve over open waters...

Storms such as Ike are more the exception than the rule
Well the ridge this year has been strong.However due to the fronts coming down they have been eroding the ridge.
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i have seen zero reports of hurricane winds sustained nrthof the delmar r area
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483. Kearn
where the heck did jose come from anyways? lol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS takes Katia out to sea along with the UKMET and Nogaps.They show invest 92L going out to sea while the
Euro has it going further west.


the NOGAPS dosent have it going out to sea..it only goes out so many hours..it has it farther south though..possibly affecting the lesser antilles..
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Quoting reedzone:


Because the storm was a LITTLE weaker then forecast... Literally..

Still a deadly and damaging storm.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
why isnt there a floater for 92L? isit not available er somethin?


It isn't far enough west yet.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS takes Katia out to sea along with the UKMET and Nogaps.They show invest 92L going out to sea while the
Euro has it going further west.


It wouldn't surprise me if the GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS models are right and have this going out to sea...climotologically these storms that form this close to Africa tend to recurve over open waters...

Storms such as Ike are more the exception than the rule
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Quoting Methurricanes:
get out if you live near the Westfield River.
Whats a Meth Hurricane Gorty?



Thats an upspout formed when idiots cause a flash fire and blow up a double wide by cooking gasoline on the stove, thus causing a sudden outburst of heat upwards, which when conditions are right can cause violent interaction with low pressure above.....but i wouldnt consider it a hurricane, more like a tornado

j.k lol
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92L does not look like a true fish storm.



300h, aiming for Newfoundland after scraping Bermuda. (12z GFS)
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Quoting o22sail:

Note- Isabel is missing in 2003


Eight years ago today, Isabel hadn't developed yet.

EDIT: Okay, you get it now. :)

Quoting o22sail:


Whoops!
nevermind-I get it now.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The NHC nailed it as far as track is concerned. I'm not really sure why people are bashing at you and the NHC.


Because the storm was a LITTLE weaker then forecast... Literally..
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Afternoon all. Power is back on! Hope everyone came through the storm safely.

Still some trees to cut up and remove, but everyone is safe here. The drought certainly helped minimize flooding problems here... just hope that we don't get another one soon. Just east of Greenville, we got about 10 inches of rain. Winds were impressive in that they lasted a LONG time!


Glad you made it out of it okay..glad to know there werent any hummers swimming this time around..
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you for got Jose
And IGOR!
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Quoting reedzone:
Oh wow, I'm such a horrible person for disagreeing with Masters... We BOTH were wrong, it happens. Irene was a Hurricane when it hit NJ and spreaded Hurricane force winds from NYC to Western Long Island. I was wrong when I forecast 80 mph. Hurricane to hit Long Island. It was borderline between TS/Hurricane.. Even Levi believes that, watch his video. You really think I'm doomcasting? You guys need to relax and stop bashing others who are saying Irene was and continues to be a devastating storm. You were not in it, you don't know how it was. I have friends and family who are telling me it was the worst storm they have experienced in years. Worst then a typical strong Nor'Easter. I'm done with the argument, Irene will be retired and remembered for the massive flooding and surge, deaths as well.. 14 people died so far. NHC on the other hand.. Did an excellent job with Irene!

The NHC nailed it as far as track is concerned. I'm not really sure why people are bashing at you and the NHC.
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Quoting o22sail:

Note- Isabel is missing in 2003


Whoops!
nevermind-I get it now.
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why isnt there a floater for 92L? isit not available er somethin?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow.



Northwestern Massachusetts.


Nothing like breaking a record through obliteration. There are not even impact statements, so we have no idea if getting that much higher than record would do much. Assuming that they classified "major" flood correctly, most of that town may be under water.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Which model(s) shows 92L (Katia) going toward Bermuda like Dr. M hinted at in the above discussion?

I'd be careful to pre-name these Invests...LOL...I mean Jose freakishly popped up today...so who knows if 92L will actually be Lee or whatever (if TD 10's remnants become Katia magically...LOL)....
The GFS takes Katia out to sea along with the UKMET and Nogaps.They show invest 92L going out to sea while the
Euro has it going further west.
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Type B situation at Gilboa dam in NY.





...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREA...SCHOHARIE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS
HAVE DECLARED A TYPE B SITUATION AT GILBOA DAM. A POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING AT GILBOA DAM. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAM FAILURE. NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS ARE MONITORING THE DAM.

THE NEW YORK POWER AUTHORITY HAS ALSO DECLARED A TYPE B
SITUATION AT THE BLENHEIM-GILBOA POWER PROJECT DAM DUE TO LOWER
RESERVOIR ELEVATION AND RAPID INFLOW.

* RESIDENTS ALONG THE SCHOHARIE CREEK SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DAMBREAK. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN IMMEDIATELY IF ORDERED TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
SITUATION IS DEVELOPING AT GILBOA DAM.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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Oh wow, I'm such a horrible person for disagreeing with Masters... We BOTH were wrong, it happens. Irene was a Hurricane when it hit NJ and spreaded Hurricane force winds from NYC to Western Long Island. I was wrong when I forecast 80 mph. Hurricane to hit Long Island. It was borderline between TS/Hurricane.. Even Levi believes that, watch his video. You really think I'm doomcasting? You guys need to relax and stop bashing others who are saying Irene was and continues to be a devastating storm. You were not in it, you don't know how it was. I have friends and family who are telling me it was the worst storm they have experienced in years. Worst then a typical strong Nor'Easter. I'm done with the argument, Irene will be retired and remembered for the massive flooding and surge, deaths as well.. 14 people died so far. NHC on the other hand.. Did an excellent job with Irene!
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Quoting doubtit:

The moon landing was fake and Kennedy was shot by aliens. Take your conspiracy theories elswhere.


You're wrong!!! Kennedy was kidnaped by alliens... He's alive and well and there are photos of him as president of that ET planet... ;-)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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