Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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551. JRRP

omg!!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
I love the confidence in these computer models...7 to 10 days out...sarcasm flag. The same one's that had Irene going through the center of Florida around 7 days out. Who knows what 92L is going to do this early in the game??? Without a true center.
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When the NOGAPS shows such a strong cyclone you know it means business.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. The subtropical ridge starts nosing in by 240 hours pushing the cyclone towards the NW. En route to affect Bermuda and the maritimes. Probably category 5 strength on the model by 10 days FWIW.



Looks different on the 850mb with a front trailing into the gulf. Hope the trough wins out. But it's far out in time and miles.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's disturbing.


very..
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Jose and his blob.
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First, I agree with the philosophy of it is better to be prepared for the worst, then not be prepared at all.

Second, it is not like "nothing" at all happened. We need to study and learn from it. This was not a strong Hurricane at landfall - and - look at what damage it did do. What can we do to make things safer?

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Quoting SamWells:
Is the media hype over Irene over ... yet? Oh well, nice Nor'easter after exploding Irene's guts over North Carolina.

Looking for some weakness in the Gulf, perhaps a coastal trough setting up just offshore of Brownsville, with a shot of energy coming up from the Bay of Campeche. Any thoughts?


How bout u try living over there instead of calling it a Noreaster. People up there said this was the worst storm since Gloria, including Nor'Easters. Enough with this crap now.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well....what I saw was the remnants of 98L moving westward and interacting with upper divergence from the NE quadrant of an upper-level low (ULL). The resutling disturbance became 91L. 91L is now Jose. The ULL formed between August 17 and 19 between an upper ridge over the Azores and an upper ridge off the coast of Africa...and retrograded westward over many days ahead of 98L.

I have been taking screenshots of the upper-level winds...surface maps from TAFB and the HPC...on a daily basis to get a day-to-day picture of the evolution in the Atlantic basin. This is my conclusion on how Jose formed...

I'm sticking with my Irene-butt theory.
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Quoting ncstorm:


12Z NOGAPS



That's disturbing.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
92L pressure down to 1009; winds still 25 kts:

AL, 92, 2011082818, , BEST, 0, 107N, 228W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Passing to the west.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A ULL formed out of Irene's butt. It touched down to the surface and thus Jose was born.


Well....what I saw was the remnants of 98L moving westward and interacting with upper divergence from the NE quadrant of an upper-level low (ULL). The resutling disturbance became 91L. 91L is now Jose. The ULL formed between August 17 and 19 between an upper ridge over the Azores and an upper ridge off the coast of Africa...and retrograded westward over many days ahead of 98L.

I have been taking screenshots of the upper-level winds...surface maps from TAFB and the HPC...on a daily basis to get a day-to-day picture of the evolution in the Atlantic basin. This is my conclusion on how Jose formed...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. The subtropical ridge starts nosing in by 240 hours pushing the cyclone towards the NW. En route to affect Bermuda and the northeast. Probably category 5 strength on the model by 10 days FWIW.

Let's hope we don't get an Isabel track...
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534. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5789
are dam measurments taken from the resivour, or below the dam?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but it's already lifting out on that frame.
Yup. The subtropical ridge starts nosing in by 240 hours pushing the cyclone towards the NW. En route to affect Bermuda and the maritimes. Probably category 5 strength on the model by 10 days FWIW.

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Is the media hype over Irene over ... yet? Oh well, nice Nor'easter after exploding Irene's guts over North Carolina.

Looking for some weakness in the Gulf, perhaps a coastal trough setting up just offshore of Brownsville, with a shot of energy coming up from the Bay of Campeche. Any thoughts?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Super-trough comes in to save the day. 216 hours:

Oh lord.I'll be feeling the trof here which should stop our tempetures from ever reaching the 90 degree mark for sometime.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am going too subway heh
Taz you getting kickbacks from Subway, your always going to Subway hehe, guess you like them sandwiches.
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12z Euro takes 92L out to sea as well. We'll see what happens.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting violet312s:


He's mooning us



i KNEW jose was the one behind Eric Fisher.....lol


i suspected it....but now I know for SURE lol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What model run was that?.I looked at some model runs on a website that had it going out to sea and the Euro going west.


12Z NOGAPS

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Skimming the wikipeida page on blackouts:

Hurricane Irene: Currently ~4million outtages
Hurricane Frances: ~5 million
Hurricane Katrina: 1.3 million (florida)... "millions" gulf coast landfall
Hurricane WIlma: 3.2 million
Hurricane Ike: ~7.5 million
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
What is going on with Jose's structure?


He's mooning us
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Quoting doncooke:
Has a tropical storm ever made it to Greenland or Iceland before?


H Igor 2010 hit Newfoundland . Pretty sure it made it all the way to the Davis straits in the Labrador Sea but was probably extra-tropical by then.
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Final entry, guys.

Hope everyone is safe! Thanks for following.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Super-trough comes in to save the day. 216 hours:



lol.I'm always too late.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Actually at the moment the Nogaps is the west model the Euro has it going out to sea.
Quoting ncstorm:


the NOGAPS dosent have it going out to sea..it only goes out so many hours..it has it farther south though..possibly affecting the lesser antilles..
What model run was that?.I looked at some model runs on a website that had it going out to sea and the Euro going west.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Super-trough comes in to save the day. 216 hours:



Yeah, but it's already lifting out on that frame.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
I love the ignore feature here.

Irene may not have turned out as bad as it could have. But the think the warnings, evacuations and preparations made by the big cities in the Northeast were appropriate. Imainge the outrage if they DIDN'T shut down mass transit in NYC and the flooding left people stranded all over.

Yeah maybe some people where "inconvenienced" but too bad so sad...

I think the situation was handled well by NHC, NWS and government officials.

I'd like to think some lessons were learned from Katrina and other recent storms.

Again I love the ignore feature, too bad it didn't work on quotes.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A ULL formed out of Irene's butt. It touched down to the surface and thus Jose was born.


LOL.
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TS.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 27August_6pmGMT and ending 28August_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormIrene's path
and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Irene's travel-speed was 24mph(38.6k/h) on a heading of 16.5degrees(NNW)
TS.Irene was headed toward passage over NorthMontpelier,Vermont for the 12amGMT

Copy&paste 35.5n76.3w-36.7n75.7w, 36.7n75.7w-38.1n75.0w, 38.1n75.0w-40.3n74.1w, 40.3n74.1w-42.3n73.3w, jfk, gbr, 40.3n74.1w-44.3n72.45w, mpv into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 28August_12pmGMT)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Super-trough comes in to save the day. 216 hours:



lol, super trough.
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Dvorak GOM loop

Link



look at all the energy in the GOM now....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It isn't far enough west yet.


figured that,but wasnt sure. noted the black spot the the extreme east of the Central Atlantic satellite, but wasnt sure if the NHC had a special floater or somethin. thx for confirming my question anyways
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505. mbjjm
Quoting reedzone:
Oh wow, I'm such a horrible person for disagreeing with Masters... We BOTH were wrong, it happens. Irene was a Hurricane when it hit NJ and spreaded Hurricane force winds from NYC to Western Long Island. I was wrong when I forecast 80 mph. Hurricane to hit Long Island. It was borderline between TS/Hurricane.. Even Levi believes that, watch his video. You really think I'm doomcasting? You guys need to relax and stop bashing others who are saying Irene was and continues to be a devastating storm. You were not in it, you don't know how it was. I have friends and family who are telling me it was the worst storm they have experienced in years. Worst then a typical strong Nor'Easter. I'm done with the argument, Irene will be retired and remembered for the massive flooding and surge, deaths as well.. 14 people died so far. NHC on the other hand.. Did an excellent job with Irene!


There were no hurricane winds from NYC to Western Long Island.There were gusts to 60-65mph early morning,gusts.There was one 91mph gust in Sayville, NY which is suspect.Winds were generally in the sustained 25-45mph range where are ur getting your hurricane winds.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


As of 8/28/2003, Isabel hadn't formed yet.
Right.
I caught on to what you were doing a little later than I should have and corrected myself.
My apologies :)
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502. ackee
92L is very FAR south so will be intresting to see how FAR weat it will go ?
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Quoting Kearn:
where the heck did jose come from anyways? lol

A ULL formed out of Irene's butt. It touched down to the surface and thus Jose was born.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.