Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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599. ackee
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I know what you mean.... no major one however...
not impossble 92l VERY FAR SOUTH if takes longer to dvlop could very well go furher south and west
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Quoting nofailsafe:


NOGAPS has a reputation about it though: NOt Good At Predicting (Storms/Stuff/Other S-words.)
It was one of the best with Irene. I guess it varies storm-to-storm, but usually one of the least reliable models, as you mentioned.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's a well structured hurricane.
Katrina was always ugly to me.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's supposed to happen. Fingers crossed.

ON THURSDAY...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SE TX AND SRN
LOUISIANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES INLAND ACROSS DRT TO DFW
CREATING A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RICH WITH GULF/CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE EXPANDING INTO SETX ON WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO AND IN PLACE THURSDAY...FRIDAY... SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY THE 6TH. RAIN CHANCES START WEDNESDAY
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF SETX BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKING MUCH COOLER/CLOUDY/RAINY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE RAINFALL
TOTALS BY TUESDAY THE 06 OF 2-5"!

45


sounds wonderful.... :)
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reedzone "Hurricane Irene...Pressure of a Category 3 storm = very Intense and large storm. This was the Northeast USAs version of Hurricane Ike.

170 StormPro "Reed... I havent seen any surge levels above 9 feet...I hate to say it and I'm not bashing you but Ike was triple that in surge values

A bit less than double if I remember correctly. And most of the GulfCoast has an extremely long&shallow run-up to shore. While the EastCoast is mostly short&steep.
Storm surge piles up on itself as the bottom of the pressure wave (about the same distance below the mean water level as the crest of a wave is above) drags against the seabed. Longer&shallower run-ups lead to higher water levels past the shoreline
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Quoting zerveftexas:

In the butt.


Are we still talking about the Irene butt theory proposed by JLPR2? LOL...
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RALEIGHWX NO LONGER ALLOWS REMOTE LINKING!!!!!!!!!!

THE IMAGE YOU POST WON'T BE SEEN BY ANYONE BUT YOURSELF.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
590. BDAwx
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


WOW...just wow...and this sat. image at the same time shows NO CLOUDS over Bermuda....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

Jose is going down in my mind as one of the WEIRDEST TROPICAL CYCLONES EVER CLASSIFED!!! IMO.....



We had two showers and gusty winds. It is now sunny with gusty winds.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Irene approaching North Carolina...Image courtesy of WILX News 10.

The outer reaches of a hurricane always reminds me of a stack of pancakes.
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1130 AM FLOOD NORTHAMPTON 42.33N 72.68W
08/28/2011 HAMPSHIRE MA PUBLIC

MILL RIVER FLOODING WITH FOLLOWING ROADS CLOSED
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER - MEADOW STREET - SPRING ROAD -
RESERVOIR ROAD

that area is populated. From the Taunton MA, NWS, and the river is still rising.
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140mph on the 18z SHIPS.

V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 42 48 61 73 84 92 101 107 112 119

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Okay, so here in NYC, I guess the hurricane was a bit of a dud. Winds pretty much completely stopped by 6AM, and nothing was going on when the inner hurricane passed over. We even had a little sun this morning. Right now though, we're getting strong winds as of the past hour - not sure where these have come from.
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The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
REMOTE LINKING TO ALLAN HUFFMAN'S SITE HAS BEEN DISABLED.
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@wunderground
Weather Underground
Remember, track river and dam levels by going to wxug.us/el8c. Exclamation points mean over flood stage.
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the high over texas is supposed to be moving to the east starting later this week which will open up th e gulf
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When the NOGAPS shows such a strong cyclone you know it means business.



NOGAPS has a reputation about it though: NOt Good At Predicting (Storms/Stuff/Other S-words.)
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Bermuda clearly p*ssed in the 12z ECMWF's cheerios..


Category 5 hurricane aiming at Bermuda.
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That's a well structured hurricane.
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Quoting zerveftexas:

In the butt.


Huh?
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Quoting Dakster:


Heck, who knows where it is going to go 7-10 days out even if it had a center...

5 Days out the error is still quite large, I can only imagine the 7-10 forecast error cone.
Completely agree with you guys, I guess the ole saying "models aren't gospel" is cliche.
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Quoting odinslightning:



i kinda get the feeling the texas high needs to break for texas to get a shot at anything. anything that would form would move away from texas to a weakness.....


That's supposed to happen. Fingers crossed.

ON THURSDAY...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SE TX AND SRN
LOUISIANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES INLAND ACROSS DRT TO DFW
CREATING A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RICH WITH GULF/CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE EXPANDING INTO SETX ON WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO AND IN PLACE THURSDAY...FRIDAY... SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY THE 6TH. RAIN CHANCES START WEDNESDAY
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF SETX BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKING MUCH COOLER/CLOUDY/RAINY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE RAINFALL
TOTALS BY TUESDAY THE 06 OF 2-5"!

45
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
Quoting zerveftexas:
I wish that 92L develops and comes to Texas, we really need it.


I know what you mean.... no major one however...
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Quoting zerveftexas:
I wish that 92L develops and comes to Texas, we really need it.


I will wish for that too. A nice slow moving TS to hit Texas...

I wish we could send you some of the rain we are having here in Florida...


THANKS AtHomeInTx -- At least some people are getting the point!
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Hurricane Irene approaching North Carolina...Image courtesy of WILX News 10.

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Quoting JLPR2:
Also. It seems like 93L is possible.
This reminds me of last year.With Igor and Julia.
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Well I've learned my lesson the hard way from model watching out to 200+ hrs. I was almost certain Irene was going to hit FL. after the GFS was consistently showing it on the west coast on one run & the east coast on the next & back and forth which is not much of a deviation.

So now I won't even take models that far out with a credence until we actually get a Tropical Depression to track. I think I would take the models more serious 3-4 days out now & Not 10 days, heck not even 5 days!
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nyc times square cam show nyc quickly getting back to being nyc,shoot my friend up their was ready for dim sum at noon,bang'n on the door,lol
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Quoting zerveftexas:

Butt.


What what?
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Quoting JLPR2:


And another close to Africa. Makes one wonder just how far down the list we will reach. :\
Yeah there's a wave off of Africa.The models have shown 2 out of 3 possible disturbances developing from tropical waves.The one behind 92L could also develop.
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563. JLPR2
Also. It seems like 93L is possible.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting NortheastGuy:
I love the confidence in these computer models...7 to 10 days out...sarcasm flag. The same one's that had Irene going through the center of Florida around 7 days out. Who knows what 92L is going to do this early in the game??? Without a true center.


Heck, who knows where it is going to go 7-10 days out even if it had a center...

5 Days out the error is still quite large, I can only imagine the 7-10 forecast error cone.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I don't like where it's headed.


in that model run..not good for islands at all..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm sticking with my Irene-butt theory.


LOL...that would be funny if that's how the NHC describes it in the NHC post-storm report....

"On 27 August, an upper-level low developed just southwest of Bermuda, amplified by the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irene to the north. Sufficiently organized convection suggests that the system could be classified as a tropical storm on 28 August. The formation of Jose can be best described as the Irene butt theory."
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Quoting JRRP:

omg!!
DOOM AND GLOOM!!!!.Lol.
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557. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When the NOGAPS shows such a strong cyclone you know it means business.



And another close to Africa. Makes one wonder just how far down the list we will reach. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting SamWells:
Is the media hype over Irene over ... yet? Oh well, nice Nor'easter after exploding Irene's guts over North Carolina.

Looking for some weakness in the Gulf, perhaps a coastal trough setting up just offshore of Brownsville, with a shot of energy coming up from the Bay of Campeche. Any thoughts?



i kinda get the feeling the texas high needs to break for texas to get a shot at anything. anything that would form would move away from texas to a weakness.....
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Quoting Dakster:
First, I agree with the philosophy of it is better to be prepared for the worst, then not be prepared at all.

Second, it is not like "nothing" at all happened. We need to study and learn from it. This was not a strong Hurricane at landfall - and - look at what damage it did do. What can we do to make things safer?



It only let me give you one +. But this is an excellent post. Worth repeating.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
Quoting ncstorm:


12Z NOGAPS


I don't like where it's headed.
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T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
XXN/XXW
OUT OF RANGE
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551. JRRP

omg!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.