Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting Gorty:


I will be more than happy to watch it.


Watch for the border of TX/LA. But if you tell me a cat 3 or higher is coming, I'm gonna shoot the messenger. However if you tell me a slow moving TS is coming, I'll send brownies.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3126
Highway 12 in eastern North Carolina at PINWR:

Highway 12
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Quoting ncstorm:


but it is related..Just like Irene choked on dry air, as did the Miami Heat choked when it came down to winning a championship..


+1000 lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah, lets talk about sports, because it REALLY relates to the weather.

Sarcasm Flag: (You already know the answer)


but it is related..Just like Irene choked on dry air, as did the Miami Heat choked when it came down to winning a championship..
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Quoting ncstorm:


92L could be taking its talent to Miami..you never know..

Now, now, this is no time for the big one to go there! Miami beach has NEVER had a land falling category 4 hurricane on it's shores. So we are kind of invincible in that case.
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Quoting Gorty:


I will be more than happy to watch it.


Thanks!
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Doe anyone know how to pronounce Katia. Where do they get these names? Why not have it just be named Katie?
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Quoting zerveftexas:

76ers since there's no team in Pittsburgh?

Truthfully I really don't care for basketball. I Mainly only watch college basketball.
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304 doncooke "Has a tropical storm ever made it to Greenland or Iceland before?"

Last year, one made it to ~6hours of travel short of Greenland before it was declared extratropical.
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Great, we already had to deal with Irene here in VA, then a potential threat 2-3 weeks down the road.

Wonderful.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
640. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
If future Katia gets 100 miles close to PR I shall shave my head! :P!


I'll take a plane and get out of here. XD
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Officially 109f at 200 in Austin, tx, all time high in danger of 112.
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Quoting SamWells:
Thanks @AtHomeInTX, about the only way to get some relief in Texas is from some tropical moisture. I've rarely seen a summer with ZERO sea breeze effect, at least on the southern coast. Last shot of wetness was some blow-off from Hurricane Arlene in late June.


We got some rain here in Houston thursday of last week, broke our +100 streak and was something I'd never seen before. My experience with Houston weather so far has been hot and humid and with no relief in sight.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah, lets talk about sports, because it REALLY relates to the weather.

Sarcasm Flag: (You already know the answer)


It's fun and educational.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


That would be interesting for it to develop that far out and come all the way to TX. Don't look for that to happen, but anything is possible I guess.


The cone of uncertainty with 92L extends from Texas to Canada....including Bermuda and Bahamas...unfortunately that's the nature of the beast with a system that far out....there's no getting around it....

Quoting nofailsafe:


I've often wondered: how are these models different? Do they use different grid spacing? Different physics models? Or what? In a past life I did a little programming so I've always wondered how these really complex models worked.


Global (zoomed-out) models use a coarser grid because they would take too long to run otherwise. Some use fundamental equations of fluids or meteorology...some use no logic like the XTRP (extrapolation model), has the storm going forever in a straight line based on how it moved in the last 6 hours...
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Quoting presslord:


you're gonna have to watch it for us...we're spent...

so true.
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633. Relix
If future Katia gets 100 miles close to PR I shall shave my head! :P!
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632. Gorty
Quoting presslord:


you're gonna have to watch it for us...we're spent...


I will be more than happy to watch it.
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Yeah, lets talk about sports, because it REALLY relates to the weather.

Sarcasm Flag: (You already know the answer)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32060
Thanks @AtHomeInTX, about the only way to get some relief in Texas is from some tropical moisture. I've rarely seen a summer with ZERO sea breeze effect, at least on the southern coast. Last shot of wetness was some blow-off from Hurricane Arlene in late June.
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Quoting zerveftexas:

More of a Dwight fan, eh?


Nope. I hail from Pittsburgh ,PA so that's where all my teams are.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Irene approaching North Carolina...Image courtesy of WILX News 10.



Hate to be a downer, but I've seen this a lot today and yesterday and it's been confirmed to be a fake. The shot is actually of a hurricane making landfall on a FL beach. I'll try to find the source.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
Link

Some light reading for you


Wow, in terms of resolution, the ECMWF seems to have GFS beat by a long shot.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Quoting Gorty:
The east coast needs to watch what will be Katia VERY closely.


you're gonna have to watch it for us...we're spent...
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Rain coming into Texas and west central Louisiana is the best news I've had all week.


It does sound nice. That pic of Sam Rayburn's dam area was unbelievable. I think they opened Rayburn the year I was born and I think we've fished it that long. No one can recall it being that bad. Although my dad said it was low in '97. Sigh, we could use a little of the wet stuff.
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Quoting zerveftexas:

You live in FL and you don't like the Heat?


I despise them.
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Quoting zerveftexas:

On that note.....I'm still ecstatic over my team winning the last NBA championship.

RIP NBA 1933-2011


1933? More like 1946, I'm a sports geek lol.
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Quoting ncstorm:


92L could be taking its talent to Miami..you never know..

92L and Lebron can get the heck out of FL.
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Quoting NortheastGuy:
I love the confidence in these computer models...7 to 10 days out...sarcasm flag. The same one's that had Irene going through the center of Florida around 7 days out. Who knows what 92L is going to do this early in the game??? Without a true center.


Of course, at this time frame, with a storm that hasn't formed yet, model runs are far from accurate. However, they give an insight to forecasters about general patterns, so we know what area of the world they are likely to be in and when. A lot of people are making a big thing of how models showed Irene through Florida, and eventually ended up in North Carolina, but in reality, it was only a 3 or 4 degree shift in longitude. Fact is, in a 7-10 day time frame, the models showed a US landfalling hurricane. That's useful.
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615. Gorty
The east coast needs to watch what will be Katia VERY closely.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know! Could you imagine how heartbreaking it would be if it doesn't happen. Lol.


Don't say that....that would be our luck wouldn't it? :)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
The model runs to me suggest to watch it but without panic (I am not saying anyone is panicking right now over 92L...but in case any lurkers or blogges are showing anxiety)....

Guessing which model is going to win is like guessing which basketball team is going to win the season. Even though the Euro (the Lakers) shows it going west or whatever...its not like it wins every time. The Lakers lost last season....


92L could be taking its talent to Miami..you never know..
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I've often wondered: how are these models different? Do they use different grid spacing? Different physics models? Or what? In a past life I did a little programming so I've always wondered how these really complex models worked.
I have absolutely no idea, lol. I assume it has to do with the resolution in which they were programmed with. You're gonna have to PM Nrt or Atmo if you want a good in-depth answer.
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Quoting ackee:
not impossble 92l VERY FAR SOUTH if takes longer to dvlop could very well go furher south and west


That would be interesting for it to develop that far out and come all the way to TX. Don't look for that to happen, but anything is possible I guess.
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610. Gorty
Wow, the Euro has a 922 mb hurricane by Sept. 7th.
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The model runs to me suggest to watch it but without panic (I am not saying anyone is panicking right now over 92L...but in case any lurkers or blogges are showing anxiety)....

Guessing which model is going to win is like guessing which basketball team is going to win the season. Even though the Euro (the Lakers) shows it going west or whatever...its not like it wins every time. The Lakers lost last season....
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5pm advisory should be Irenes last advisory I think. Still a rain and wind threat for a while though.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was one of the best with Irene. I guess it varies storm-to-storm, but usually one of the least reliable models, as you mentioned.


I've often wondered: how are these models different? Do they use different grid spacing? Different physics models? Or what? In a past life I did a little programming so I've always wondered how these really complex models worked.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
606. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Are we still talking about the Irene butt theory proposed by JLPR2? LOL...


That's WeatherNerdPR's theory. XD
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Rain coming into Texas and west central Louisiana is the best news I've had all week.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3126
Quoting TexasHurricane:


sounds wonderful.... :)


I know! Could you imagine how heartbreaking it would be if it doesn't happen. Lol.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


200 people will continue to post them though.


Adblock Plus to the rescue!
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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