Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting RussianWinter:


I consider the actual landfall as Biscayne Bay but meh.

In that case I would gladly say "BRING IT" since if we survived that one we can survive it again.


Um, hey Russ, please don't move to Texas. Nothing personal, just sayin'. Lol. ;-)
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699. JLPR2
Quoting zerveftexas:

I'm pretty sure it is Russian, since the letter "K" isn't used in Spanish. If anything, Catia would be Spanish.


The letter K exists and is used in Spanish. Where did you get the idea it isn't? O.o
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I will say Henry Margusity of Accuweather did get Irene's track right..
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Quoting Relix:
If future Katia gets 100 miles close to PR I shall shave my head! :P!
get ready!
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Katia is the WORST replacement I have ever seen by the NHC. All they did is remove the "R" and the "N" from the "K" word.....


Agreed...if your password was previously KATRINA...and then you changed it to KATIA...I don't think the password wizard would accept that (too similar).

Maybe when they replace the names of storms...they need password software to help them out...
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Quoting LillyMyrrh:

How about what they replaced the "R" word with? They just replaced the "T" with an "N".


Yeah THAT one really got me. That's almost mean. ;-)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Yes there was in 1926. Eye made landfall on Miami Beach.


I consider the actual landfall as Biscayne Bay but meh.

In that case I would gladly say "BRING IT" since if we survived that one we can survive it again.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
693. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


To me, it seems 92L has enough space to remain separate from the spin coming off shore Africa now.
All the models seem to merge the two.
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I am in Sussex County Delaware, and will admit that Irene, had me scared at one point. I feel that several factors made us very lucky. I have lived through several brushes with hurricanes and my parents lived in Rehoboth Beach when the March storm of 1962 hit. They compared Irene to the March of 62 storm at one point and she did not even come closes. In all the Hurricanes that I can remember effecting Delaware and the history and possibilities that can happen, Irene with her size and strength had me scared. I don't ever remember any tornadoes here in Delaware from past Hurricanes and I was born in June of 1962. There is a possibility that we had a tornado touch down in Lewes. I have seen many water spout tornadoes and I even called a couple of small land tornadoes in my time before they actually formed but they are rare for Delaware. If Irene had not weakened we would have been in really bad trouble especially if she went up the Chesapeake Bay. I have been through worse Northeaster's and other then the possible tornadoes (could have been straight line winds)and tornado warnings that we went through She spared us in many ways. But if Irene had not weakened or took a more westerly path things could have been pretty bad. Hurricanes even with all of the increased science into them are still unpredictable and the larger the storm especially with a wobble is hard to call even hours before landfall. I just hope that if we should have another Hurricane approach the area before the season is over that people will still take it seriously. No Hurricane is like any other they all have their own distinct ways about them. They may be similar to or even take the same path as past Hurricanes but the ever changing coast line and when they make landfall effects them different. I truly believe we got lucky. Even North Carolina as bad as they got it has had worse and it could have been much worse if she hadn't weakened.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It does sound nice. That pic of Sam Rayburn's dam area was unbelievable. I think they opened Rayburn the year I was born and I think we've fished it that long. No one can recall it being that bad. Although my dad said it was low in '97. Sigh, we could use a little of the wet stuff.
111 here right now, I would be just happy with Normal Texas Temperatures with a chance of a shower that is 200 percent improvement over the past several months, give me 98 with a 20 percent chance of a shower. When September comes the weather will change but I won't wish a Hurricane on anyone because that would be worse than the drought and heatwave.
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hmm, well never mind can't seem to get the picture to work.
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Five day SAL

Link
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Boat is 18 feet by 85 feet. Sitting on a 4 foot wide pier!



drydock
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684. DFWjc
Quoting Skylink:
Officially 109f at 200 in Austin, tx, all time high in danger of 112.


Yeah we hit 110f here...i haven't gone outside yet, not to even pick up yesterday's mail.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Katia is the WORST replacement I have ever seen by the NHC. All they did is remove the "R" and the "N" from the "K" word.....

How about what they replaced the "R" word with? They just replaced the "T" with an "N".
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Highway 12 in eastern North Carolina at PINWR:

Highway 12


Thanks for posting that pic. Does anyone know in that case would they try to rebuild the road or just leave it be?
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680. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW:

Katia KAH-tyah
Lee lee
Maria muh-REE-uh
Nate nait
Ophelia o-FEEL-ya
Philippe fee-LEEP
Rina REE-nuh
Sean shawn
Tammy TAM-ee
Vince vinss
Whitney WHIT-nee


That Katia seems to be the Spanish version of the name. That's how the name of the Katia I know is pronounced.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Katia is the WORST replacement I have ever seen by the NHC. All they did is remove the "R" and the "N" from the "K" word.....


It wasn't the National Hurricane Center's decision. It was the World Meteorological Organization's decision.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW:

Katia: KAH-tyah:
Lee: lee:
Maria: muh-REE-uh:
Nate: nait:
Ophelia: o-FEEL-ya:
Philippe: fee-LEEP:
Rina: REE-nuh:
Sean: shawn:
Tammy: TAM-ee:
Vince: vinss:
Whitney: WHIT-nee


I think you mispronounced "Lee" ;-)
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Watch for the border of TX/LA. But if you tell me a cat 3 or higher is coming, I'm gonna shoot the messenger. However if you tell me a slow moving TS is coming, I'll send brownies.


Lol.
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From AccuWeather.com

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Quoting thebandman:
Doe anyone know how to pronounce Katia. Where do they get these names? Why not have it just be named Katie?


As a russian, I believe I'm qualified to make a statement.

It's pronounced Katya, where there is no "ee" sound before the a as one would expect.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting zerveftexas:

You did nothing wrong...and this sports talk is nothing wrong, it's just the idiots who try to police the board trying to make you feel guilty like it's some sort of elves' underwear party or something...


May I suggest this wonderful link?

Link
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Quoting zerveftexas:

You live in FL and you don't like the Heat?


Florida bigger than most realize. I'm closer to Houston (525 mi) and Atlanta (323 mi) than Miami (673 mi).
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FWIW:

Katia: KAH-tyah
Lee: lee
Maria: muh-REE-uh
Nate: nait
Ophelia: o-FEEL-ya
Philippe: fee-LEEP
Rina: REE-nuh
Sean: shawn
Tammy: TAM-ee
Vince: vinss
Whitney: WHIT-nee
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Now, now, this is no time for the big one to go there! Miami beach has NEVER had a land falling category 4 hurricane on it's shores. So we are kind of invincible in that case.


Oh wow! I hope you're knockin'on wood somewhere. Maybe typing with your fingers crossed? Lol. We got superstitious quick around here about hurricanes.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Highway 12 in eastern North Carolina at PINWR:

Highway 12


Woah, Isabel's daughter made an inlet of her own!
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Quoting zerveftexas:
Don't really care for the NCAA, any sport. Pro sports are where it's at but the players need to be less greedy


Sooo, is it going to rain at these games? *G*
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Quoting thebandman:
Doe anyone know how to pronounce Katia. Where do they get these names? Why not have it just be named Katie?
Pronunciation:


(KAT yah
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting zerveftexas:

It's my favorite sport...it's just that I hate the players that play professionally in it, they've gotten so damn greedy of late which has driven this lockout.

also, your steelers aren't making it back this year.


Those are fighting words .
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Question about the Hudson (falls in the area designated as likely per graphic in Dr. Masters post)

Here in the Carolina Lowcountry, during a tropical system, typically we would experience a surge, but it is in and back out again. Since the marshes function to distribute the water - the problem of rivers rising and cresting days later was an issue with which I was unfamiliar until North Carolina's experience with Floyd. (remember the floating pig carcasses? yikes!)

I understand the Hudson is a tidal about as far as West Point, and certainly there is plenty of marsh at it's mouth so I am guessing that the Hudson would follow the same sort of pattern as our Ashley and Cooper Rivers. Is that correct or do we need to be concerned about the Hudson cresting in a few days?





I wouldn't say the Hudson has plenty of marsh at it's mouth - from the Tappanzee bridge south it's the Jersey Palisades on the west and a fairly steep rise on the east all the way down to NYC. Then almost all the shore is filled in/built up with docks and other urban development until you get to Jamaica Bay, which is actually on the Atlantic, and maybe some marsh on the Jersey side opposite Staten Island.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


:|


Sorry LOL...I started this....trying to compare models to basketball teams, WHAT WAS I THINKING?! (smack to the forehead LOL)...
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Quoting thebandman:
Doe anyone know how to pronounce Katia. Where do they get these names? Why not have it just be named Katie?

KAH-tyah

See here.
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658. Gorty
Quoting presslord:


Thanks!


No problem.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Highway 12 in eastern North Carolina at PINWR:

Highway 12


Wow..thats a lot of flooding..
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Watch for the border of TX/LA. But if you tell me a cat 3 or higher is coming, I'm gonna shoot the messenger. However if you tell me a slow moving TS is coming, I'll send brownies.


lol.... :)
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Quoting SamWells:
Thanks @AtHomeInTX, about the only way to get some relief in Texas is from some tropical moisture. I've rarely seen a summer with ZERO sea breeze effect, at least on the southern coast. Last shot of wetness was some blow-off from Hurricane Arlene in late June.


It was a strong TS at landfall.
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Now, now, this is no time for the big one to go there! Miami beach has NEVER had a land falling category 4 hurricane on it's shores. So we are kind of invincible in that case.


Yes there was in 1926. Eye made landfall on Miami Beach.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8554
Quoting ncstorm:


but it is related..Just like Irene choked on dry air, as did the Miami Heat choked when it came down to winning a championship..


:|
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.