Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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750. Gorty
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Irena
Irina
Iryna


Those are better than my name lol. At least yours are all female.
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749. mbjjm
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


He sure did.


Most people got the track right after Irene passed through the NW Bahamas especially when the it missed the trough .
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
111 here right now, I would be just happy with Normal Texas Temperatures with a chance of a shower that is 200 percent improvement over the past several months, give me 98 with a 20 percent chance of a shower. When September comes the weather will change but I won't wish a Hurricane on anyone because that would be worse than the drought and heatwave.


Hey Bo, I know it's horrible out your way. Are you're locals talking about this up-coming rain like ours are? Hope so.
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Quoting LAlurker:
Irene still has hurricane force winds - in New Hampshire!Link


Wow!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting presslord:


drydock


That's what I originally thought too. Then saw other pictures, there is solid land just in front of the bow. See other pictures here.
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Irene still has hurricane force winds - in New Hampshire!Link
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Quoting Gorty:


Watch, they will replace Irene with Ira.


Irena
Irina
Iryna
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting Gorty:
@Tigger and @zerve

Ira sounds female to me.

And Irene will get retired. She caused billions of dollars of damage.


Ira is actually a male name...can't remember what it is short for...but had an uncle named Ira...
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


He sure did.


He's always going to forecast anything and everything to hit the Northeast. He got one right finally.

In the winter, it's always the same thing..."Here in the 15 day period, we have our Big Daddy storm coming to bury the Northeast in 5 feet of snow."

About the only meteorologist I trust at Accuweather is Frank Strait.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
738. JLPR2
Quoting zerveftexas:

Can't wait for the Eagles to go to Atlanta the third week of the season. Michael Vick may hear the boobirds but he's going to be bound and determined to pour it on.


As for the letter "K" in Spanish, I speak Spanish and although it technically is in the alphabet it isn't used except for "kilo".


Well I'll give you that, it isnt used that much:

The only words that come to mind are karate, kiosco, ketchup, kilo and kiwi.

:\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
XXN/XXW
OUT OF RANGE


if ya all thought irene was a joke wait till ya see 92
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Quoting ElConando:


1933? More like 1946, I'm a sports geek lol.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


He sure did.


here are his thoughts on 92L

Link
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732. Gorty
@Tigger and @zerve

Ira sounds female to me.

And Irene will get retired. She caused billions of dollars of damage.
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Quoting floodzonenc:


Where are you? Wife and I went down after Isabel in 03 and breach was still there (about 3 weeks later). Weird to see ocean rolling through into the sound. Channel was about 100 yards across and over 20 foot deep. Hwy 12 is the only way to access except for ferry so they have no choice but to patch it when storms rip it.

South Florida.I meant doesn't really happen around where i live down here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sun will be setting soon on the quickly organizing Invest 92L. Already looks better now than what it did at 2PM. There is a moderate possibility it gets classified tonight (11PM?), but I think there is a high chance it is classified sometime tomorrow.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



Rainbow:



Ok...now I see how organized Invest 92L is. I just wish there was better Eastern Atlantic imagery on the NHC webpage that would update more than every 6 hours. That region is too important. I know there are other webpages that have better, but I like going to the NHC webpage for a one-stop-shop for satellite imagery and analysis....
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Quoting Gorty:


Watch, they will replace Irene with Ira.
if Rina gets retired it will be replaced by Rene.
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726. zingo
I didn't see the picture of hwy 12, but I am guessing it is hwy 12 on the outer banks. It is the only road that connects the islands and hwy 12 runs down it. It floods with bad storms. Hurricanes usually cover it with sand. Remember, you can see both the sound and the ocean on either side of it and it is only a few feet from both.

Yes it will be repaired because it is the only road.
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Quoting Gorty:


Watch, they will replace Irene with Ira.


thought female names were replaced with the same and males with males
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Looks like 92L's environment is very moist.
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720. Gorty
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
NHC doesn't set the names. The World Meteorological Organization does. That being said I don't like Katia as a replacement. Nor Rina. KatiaRina. Blargh.


Watch, they will replace Irene with Ira.
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Sun will be setting soon on the quickly organizing Invest 92L. Already looks better now than what it did at 2PM. There is a moderate possibility it gets classified tonight (11PM?), but I think there is a high chance it is classified sometime tomorrow.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



Rainbow:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting floodzonenc:


It'll be rebuilt. These breaches happen pretty frequently. Usually near Hatteras too.

Thanks, I was always curious about that cause down here that really doesn't happen during a storm.
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Pretty funny how SAB and TAFB give 92L a T-number of 1.0 and 1.5, respectively, and then both give Jose a T2.0.
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NHC doesn't set the names. The World Meteorological Organization does. That being said I don't like Katia as a replacement. Nor Rina. KatiaRina. Blargh.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting hahaguy:


Thanks for posting that pic. Does anyone know in that case would they try to rebuild the road or just leave it be?


They have to rebuild it. It's the only road.
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For those off-topic, just remember, you're risking a ban.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
http://www.recordonline.com/
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Quoting RussianWinter:


I consider the actual landfall as Biscayne Bay but meh.

In that case I would gladly say "BRING IT" since if we survived that one we can survive it again.


Um, hey Russ, please don't move to Texas. Nothing personal, just sayin'. Lol. ;-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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