Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nostorminflorida

you are really starting to piss me off


did me a LONG time ago... !!!!! perfect solution
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


watch Irene is not being replaced.. remember Emily 2005

Emily went to Mexico though, it's far less dramatic than a landfall in the great city of N.Y in the U.S. of A.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
http://www.recordonline.com/
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.
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794. ackee
Quoting nostorminflorida:
GOOD LORD NOT 92 ALREADY LETS SEE HOW MANY PLACES THEY WILL 92 HITTING BEFORE THEY GET IT RIGHT I SAY AT LEAST 12 PLACES
I SAY 15
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Don't know about models,or 92Invest future, but any CV hurricane or storm that forms within this time frame:Sept. 1 to the 20, climatology says, there is a high probability it will be a close call to us in the NE caribbean. Record shows that the majority of the stronger hurricanes that hit PR and surrounding areas are in the first 3 weeks of September.


hugo perfect example
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792. mbjjm
Margetville,Ny flooding unbeliveable
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
5:00 PM may be Irene's last advisory.

Sure looks extratropical...
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Quoting LAlurker:
Irene still has hurricane force winds - in New Hampshire!Link

I didn't even think about that. Trying to pull a fast one. LOL
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Quoting Gorty:
Remeber guys, a name could sound nasty, but if the pattern has it OTS or does not favor much strengthening, then not much will come of the name.

in 2010 (I think), Danielle sounds like it would be nasty but she went OTS.

And also, Gabrielle, OTS with her too.


I'm just glad "Nana" went out to sea. If she would've been bad my daughter-in-law would never let me live it down. She don't need any more ammo. Lol.
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The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


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785. mbjjm
Reports of catastrophic flooding in Delaware County. Abc new york
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Quoting Relix:
If future Katia gets 100 miles close to PR I shall shave my head! :P!
Don't know about models,or 92Invest future, but any CV hurricane or storm that forms within this time frame:Sept. 1 to the 20, climatology says, there is a high probability it will be a close call to us in the NE caribbean. Record shows that the majority of the stronger hurricanes that hit PR and surrounding areas are in the first 3 weeks of September.
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782. MZT
As with Isabel, Irene has formed a new channel across a barrier island:

Irene Opens New Inlet

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Irena
Irina
Iryna


watch Irene is not being replaced.. remember Emily 2005
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Ive still got friends in the path...too many deaths from Irene already...
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92L starting to come into the picture..finally
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San Antonio has set a new record high for the month of August. 4 degrees short of all time record so far.
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5:00 PM may be Irene's last advisory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
There goes the convection...


No surprise...lots of southesterly shear over ex-TD 10 due to NE Atlantic upper trough. The only reason it redeveloped convection is due to upper divergence from the same trough...but that convection was imminently going to get sheared off like we see now...
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Quoting LAlurker:

As my daughter would say - It is what it is!
Sustained Hurricane force winds from Irene in New Hampshire!


Mount Washington is known for horrible weather and weather extremes. I would not like to be there mid-winter.
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Irene losing tropical characteristics. Looks like Igor when it hit Newfoundland.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


Cheating lol.

As my daughter would say - It is what it is!
Sustained Hurricane force winds from Irene in New Hampshire!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


He's always going to forecast anything and everything to hit the Northeast. He got one right finally.

In the winter, it's always the same thing..."Here in the 15 day period, we have our Big Daddy storm coming to bury the Northeast in 5 feet of snow."

About the only meteorologist I trust at Accuweather is Frank Strait.


Well...his last name suggests he is honest (not quiet the same spelling as straight...but still)....

Again...92L still way too early to tell where it will end up. But if this keeps up, 92L will likely be the second hurricane of teh season. And I think this will be the first time on record to have the 'K' name be only the 2nd cane of the year....this season sure has produced a lot of pipsqueak storms like Jose...
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763. Gorty
Remeber guys, a name could sound nasty, but if the pattern has it OTS or does not favor much strengthening, then not much will come of the name.

in 2010 (I think), Danielle sounds like it would be nasty but she went OTS.

And also, Gabrielle, OTS with her too.
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762. beell
Quoting LAlurker:
Irene still has hurricane force winds - in New Hampshire!Link


Do you know where Mt Washington is?
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760. JLPR2
92L and the spin behind it should be interesting to watch tonight:
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8687
757. ackee
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sun will be setting soon on the quickly organizing Invest 92L. Already looks better now than what it did at 2PM. There is a moderate possibility it gets classified tonight (11PM?), but I think there is a high chance it is classified sometime tomorrow.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



Rainbow:

seem like there other area to watch behind 92l
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Quoting mbjjm:


Most people got the track right after Irene passed through the NW Bahamas especially when the it missed the trough .


he was calling it before the bahamas..
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There goes the convection...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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