Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting MississippiWx:
There is currently a tropical wave moving slowly through the Western Caribbean. The GFS/Euro/NAM have been hinting at some development with it as well by Wednesday or Thursday in the Gulf. A few NWS offices have picked up on it and talked about it in their forecast discussions.

Area of Disturbed Weather:



12z NAM at 84 hours



Birmingham Forecast Discussion:

THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATTM...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN GULF
ON THURSDAY AND PROGRESSING INTO TEXAS. THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THIS WAVE...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...COMES WITH THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN HOW THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPS.
THE EURO HAS THIS TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED...AND I HAVE A FEELING
THAT HOW THIS TROUGH ACTUALLY UNFOLDS COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WAVE WEST OF US...WHICH MEANS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.


Interesting...the current TAFB surface analysis doesn't recognize a tropical wave in that area...

Link

Perhaps if there is a wave there...it could be the southern fracture of the wave that produced 98L...that's the only thing I can think of. There is a small upper anticyclone that developed over the NE Yucatan in the last 24 hours...so that it what I thought was causing that convection...not a surface tropical wave...
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Don't know about models,or 92Invest future, but any CV hurricane or storm that forms within this time frame:Sept. 1 to the 20, climatology says, there is a high probability it will be a close call to us in the NE caribbean. Record shows that the majority of the stronger hurricanes that hit PR and surrounding areas are in the first 3 weeks of September.


Texas gets most of it's landfalls in September also. But rarely do CV's hit Texas. There are glaring exceptions of course, Allen and Ike to name a couple. This is a scary time of the season. Hope y'all stay safe down there. All of us need to keep an eye out. Sometimes it's not the long trackers that make the history books but the ones that didn't exist two days before they bottom out. Guess the atmosphere is just primed this time of year. (Not a call for the CH__T.) Lol. Just thinking out loud.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
then you quote it thanks friend


then I removed it.. because I am :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Possible yellow circle at 8 pm?


Doubt it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Admin must be takin' a breather this afternoon.
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I read somewhere that the average wind velocity is 45 mph on Mount Washington. Don't know if that is accurate but it sounds right.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


same
lol. replying to them only gives them incentive to continue
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My ignore list grows by the dozens every time I read Dr. Master's blog threads. I spend as much time ignoring as I do reading people's comments that matter.
Quoting xXAviatorXx:
You're not the only one he's pissing off. I've already flagged like 100 of his comments
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You were baited by a Troll... tsk tsk.. you bad
then you quote it thanks friend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
<


Probably best that you deleted that comment...It was hilarious, but you would have been banned for it. Put the troll on ignore.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
KOG, Remove that please. I would hate too see a troll reel you in for a perm ban!
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I think 11 p.m. will be the last advisory.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
There is currently a tropical wave moving slowly through the Western Caribbean. The GFS/Euro/NAM have been hinting at some development with it as well by Wednesday or Thursday in the Gulf. A few NWS offices have picked up on it and talked about it in their forecast discussions.

Area of Disturbed Weather:



12z NAM at 84 hours



Birmingham Forecast Discussion:

THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATTM...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN GULF
ON THURSDAY AND PROGRESSING INTO TEXAS. THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THIS WAVE...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...COMES WITH THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN HOW THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPS.
THE EURO HAS THIS TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED...AND I HAVE A FEELING
THAT HOW THIS TROUGH ACTUALLY UNFOLDS COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WAVE WEST OF US...WHICH MEANS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.


Possible yellow circle at 8 pm?
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The bad part about all this is, it makes you wonder why we should even bother with flagging the comments. This has been going on for hours. Is there someone, somewhere, monitoring this? If not, we're wasting our time.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Just an average day on Mt Washington


It's windy up there. Didn't go near the peak but it easily gusted into the 40's when I was there about 4 years ago.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Bo, I know it's horrible out your way. Are you're locals talking about this up-coming rain like ours are? Hope so.
They are saying when September 1st hits the weather will change but i think the Local weathermen are afraid to go out on the limb. They are saying cooler with rain chances. Being in a new subdivision with no developed trees has made this heatwave even more difficult. The gulf will be open for tropical troubles very soon, more for the bloggers to watch. I am just ready for a positive change, hope all those who saw Irene are OK and your damage is minimal. I think our average high in August here this year has been like 106 to 107, last 2 days at 110 or above, just checked my humidity it is desert like 16 percent but 110 or 111 is still very bad IMO. Stay cool bloggers.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


You were baited by a Troll... tsk tsk.. you bad
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The problem with trolls is they attract attention - like a librarian with Tourette’s.

from:

http://open.salon.com/blog/dennis_knight/2009/11/ 05/trolls_and_their_codependents

...back to lurking:)
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Quoting MZT:
As with Isabel, Irene has formed a new channel across a barrier island:

Irene Opens New Inlet



Wow I stayed five minutes from there a couple of years ago - it's a beautiful area. I hope it doesn't take too long to repair.
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x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Just an average day on Mt Washington
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Quoting LAlurker:

Yes, I've been there, and I've been waiting for hours for that to be recorded and posted on their site.


LOL sneaky bugger
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Quoting floodzonenc:


Where are you? Wife and I went down after Isabel in 03 and breach was still there (about 3 weeks later). Weird to see ocean rolling through into the sound. Channel was about 100 yards across and over 20 foot deep. Hwy 12 is the only way to access except for ferry so they have no choice but to patch it when storms rip it.


I heard before the storm that they had already moved the heavy equipment into place to repair/replace the road. They were talking about the same things, that it is the only road, and has washed out more than once.
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822. mbjjm
amazing how insensitive some people can be
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Quoting xXAviatorXx:
You're not the only one he's pissing off. I've already flagged like 100 of his comments


same
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Quoting violet312s:


Mount Washington is known for horrible weather and weather extremes. I would not like to be there mid-winter.




sounds like a great time, would go any winter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is currently a tropical wave moving slowly through the Western Caribbean. The GFS/Euro/NAM have been hinting at some development with it as well by Wednesday or Thursday in the Gulf. A few NWS offices have picked up on it and talked about it in their forecast discussions.

Area of Disturbed Weather:



12z NAM at 84 hours



Birmingham Forecast Discussion:

THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATTM...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN GULF
ON THURSDAY AND PROGRESSING INTO TEXAS. THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THIS WAVE...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...COMES WITH THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN HOW THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPS.
THE EURO HAS THIS TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED...AND I HAVE A FEELING
THAT HOW THIS TROUGH ACTUALLY UNFOLDS COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WAVE WEST OF US...WHICH MEANS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nostorminflorida

you are really starting to piss me off
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816. Gorty
Is it possible to quote more than one person when you reply? Cause I hate typing more two or names all the time when more than one person responded to me :p
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"K" is the 11th letter of the 26 letters of the Spanish alphabet, Spanish names with the letter k: Kiara, Karina , Katiria, Kiko
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that's it...im out...
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813. mbjjm
trending now on twitter #HurricaneIreneshouldhavetaken
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1859 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110828 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110828 1800 110829 0600 110829 1800 110830 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.7N 22.8W 10.5N 25.5W 10.4N 28.3W 10.2N 31.3W

BAMD 10.7N 22.8W 10.9N 25.6W 11.2N 28.4W 11.5N 31.3W

BAMM 10.7N 22.8W 10.8N 25.5W 11.0N 28.3W 11.0N 31.0W

LBAR 10.7N 22.8W 10.8N 25.5W 11.4N 29.0W 12.2N 32.3W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 48KTS 61KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 48KTS 61KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110830 1800 110831 1800 110901 1800 110902 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.9N 33.7W 9.4N 36.8W 10.9N 37.1W 15.7N 38.2W

BAMD 11.7N 34.0W 11.5N 38.9W 10.5N 42.6W 10.2N 44.6W

BAMM 11.1N 33.4W 10.9N 37.0W 11.5N 38.7W 14.6N 40.4W

LBAR 13.4N 35.7W 15.5N 41.7W 14.2N 46.2W 14.6N 42.8W

SHIP 73KTS 92KTS 107KTS 119KTS

DSHP 73KTS 92KTS 107KTS 119KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 22.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 20.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 18.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
810. beell
winds exceeding hurricane force occur an average of 110 days per year. From November to April, these strong winds are likely to occur during two-thirds of the days

Mt Washington
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Quoting beell:


Do you know where Mt Washington is?

Yes, I've been there, and I've been waiting for hours for that to be recorded and posted on their site.
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724 zerveftexas "b) Irene won't be retired"

HurricaneIrene's passage through the Bahamas...

...LittleInagua is a national park and wildlife reserve of the Bahamas.
And the population of GreatInagua lives on the western side of the island.

Copy&paste iga, 21.9n73.3w-22.7n74.3w, axp, cri, pwn, 22.7n74.3w-23.5n75.1w, sml, 23.5n75.1w-24.1n75.9w, cel, rsd, ghb, 24.1n75.9w-25.5n76.5w, elh, 25.5n76.5w-26.5n77.2w, mhh, tcb, 26.5n77.2w-27.7n77.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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It's sad when people have no social skills and no friends. They should start their own blog where they can insult each other all they want. They might even make a friend!

I think the flooding from Irene is only going to get worse in the next couple of days.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
LBAR erratic path for 92L....anything to explain why it would forecast a short period of eastward movement?
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Look for some spin up storms in the next week as well, NOGAPS was hinting at another frontal forming TS (much like Cindy & Franklin) while the CMC had some suspicious precipitation blobs in the BOC.
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post that cool ignore flash again, just one more time...please.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nostorminflorida

you are really starting to piss me off
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Quoting MZT:
As with Isabel, Irene has formed a new channel across a barrier island:

Irene Opens New Inlet



How wide is that inlet? Bit by bit...these barrier islands are slowly but surely getting shaped by these storms....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nostorminflorida

you are really starting to piss me off


did me a LONG time ago... !!!!! perfect solution
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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