Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.



Thank you!
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Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.



Thanks Doc!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
899. JeffMasters (Admin)
Breezy day on Mt Washington, NH, 81 mph gusting to 96 last hour.

Jeff Masters
897. JeffMasters (Admin)
nostorminflorida has been banned.

Quoting caneswatch:


I agree. wunderblogadmin is a huge joke.


Conner, wunderblogadmin still has the power to ban you...I wouldn't talk about him/her/them like that. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting FLdewey:
So DestinJeff get's banned for jokes, yet this kind of stuff is allowed to happen over, and over, and over again.

EPIC FAIL wunderblogadmin.


I agree. wunderblogadmin is a huge joke.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I read somewhere that the average wind velocity is 45 mph on Mount Washington. Don't know if that is accurate but it sounds right.

I couldn't find an average like that but found some other neat statistics.
From wikipedia

The weather of Mount Washington is notoriously erratic. This is partly due to the convergence of several storm tracks, mainly from the South Atlantic, Gulf region and Pacific Northwest. The vertical rise of the Presidential Range, combined with its north-south orientation, makes it a significant barrier to westerly winds. Low-pressure systems are more favorable to develop along the coastline in the winter months due to the relative temperature differences between the Northeast and the Atlantic Ocean. With these factors combined, winds exceeding hurricane force occur an average of 110 days per year. From November to April, these strong winds are likely to occur during two-thirds of the days.
Mount Washington once held the world record (still the Northern Hemisphere and Western Hemisphere record) for directly measured surface wind speed, at 231 mph (372 km/h), recorded on the afternoon of April 12, 1934. Although this record was surpassed in Cyclone Olivia in 1996, this wasn't reported as official until 2010.[13] It can still be argued that Mount Washington holds the record for the highest surface wind speed recorded 'by man'; the new Australian record was measured by an automated station while no human was present, while the Mount Washington wind gust was actually measured by a human being. Phenomena measured via satellite or radar, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and air currents in the upper atmosphere, are not directly measured at the Earth's surface and do not compete with either of these records.

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For what's it worth, 12Z NOGAPS has 92L moving WEST through 55W - 16N

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
They are saying when September 1st hits the weather will change but i think the Local weathermen are afraid to go out on the limb. They are saying cooler with rain chances. Being in a new subdivision with no developed trees has made this heatwave even more difficult. The gulf will be open for tropical troubles very soon, more for the bloggers to watch. I am just ready for a positive change, hope all those who saw Irene are OK and your damage is minimal. I think our average high in August here this year has been like 106 to 107, last 2 days at 110 or above, just checked my humidity it is desert like 16 percent but 110 or 111 is still very bad IMO. Stay cool bloggers.


Sigh. Looked better for Tx yesterday as far as the EURO goes. Had a stronger trough digging deeper into TX and drawing the moisture with it. Today it shows east TX. Keeps going that way we'll be left high and dry again. That Birmingham discussion is voicing my fears. Dang it! Oh well still hoping for the best. :)
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


I've been to the Accuweather studios in State College PA, and by far I thought Henry Margusity was the best, most competent forecaster there. He told me specifically in June that the NE was under the gun from hurricanes this year. He is also one funny guy. Frank Strait was OK but he kinda bored me after a bit.


I've just never been impressed. If there was ever a "hype-caster", he's the king of them all.

But kudos to him for telling you that in June.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Hey Admin!!! could you please do something about the issue thats going on blog right now! PLEASE!!!!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FAVORABLE
INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THIS
AREA.




with vary hot water low wind shear that low can spin up vary fast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Marine Weather Discussion

THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FAVORABLE
INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THIS
AREA.


Again...interesting...I think then this is the southern fracture of the tropical wave that produced 98L...the timing of a surface feature near the Yucatan right now makes sense with this theory...

Sometimes I find putting together how a tropical cyclone forms is more interesting than the tropical cyclone itself...anyone else think so?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam gonna roll something up in a minute watch


I Like and would like to help if you need it.... :o)

Taco :o)
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We can always take shelter in my blog or another blog like we did before...that way we know it's being administered. I'd ban this idiot instantly.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FAVORABLE
INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THIS
AREA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
876. mbjjm
Those 92 seniors who refused to evacuate must be saying I told you so.
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can you guys plzs stop Quoteing nostorminflorida we have him on Ignore
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
871. MZT
Quoting RobertM320:
The bad part about all this is, it makes you wonder why we should even bother with flagging the comments.
I think the flagged comments immediately are hidden from other people as being minimmal "post quality level". It's kind of like BURY on Digg. There are lots of people who have posts rated at zero (neutral) that I can not read without clicking SHOW. I assume those got ! flagged.
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Quoting RussianWinter:
Am I the only one that doesn't see the troll comments? they are all grey. I wasn't able to read them when I was a non-member and I don't read them now.


It may be what your filter is set to. If you have it set to show all you also get the trolls.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Interesting...the current TAFB surface analysis doesn't recognize a tropical wave in that area...

Link

Perhaps if there is a wave there...it could be the southern fracture of the wave that produced 98L...that's the only thing I can think of. There is a small upper anticyclone that developed over the NE Yucatan in the last 24 hours...so that it what I thought was causing that convection...not a surface tropical wave...


My local forecast in SW LA calls for 50% chance of showers Thu, Fri, Sat. Pretty unusual since we're in a bad drought.
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I used the "Ignore" for the first time today. Hooray! It was so easy.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Hey Jim.... did ya roll up the winders?


iam gonna roll something up in a minute watch
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1859 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110828 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110828 1800 110829 0600 110829 1800 110830 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.7N 22.8W 10.5N 25.5W 10.4N 28.3W 10.2N 31.3W

BAMD 10.7N 22.8W 10.9N 25.6W 11.2N 28.4W 11.5N 31.3W

BAMM 10.7N 22.8W 10.8N 25.5W 11.0N 28.3W 11.0N 31.0W

LBAR 10.7N 22.8W 10.8N 25.5W 11.4N 29.0W 12.2N 32.3W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 48KTS 61KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 48KTS 61KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110830 1800 110831 1800 110901 1800 110902 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.9N 33.7W 9.4N 36.8W 10.9N 37.1W 15.7N 38.2W

BAMD 11.7N 34.0W 11.5N 38.9W 10.5N 42.6W 10.2N 44.6W

BAMM 11.1N 33.4W 10.9N 37.0W 11.5N 38.7W 14.6N 40.4W

LBAR 13.4N 35.7W 15.5N 41.7W 14.2N 46.2W 14.6N 42.8W

SHIP 73KTS 92KTS 107KTS 119KTS

DSHP 73KTS 92KTS 107KTS 119KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 22.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 20.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 18.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


SHIPS up to Cat. 4 by the end of the week. Definitely possible.
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Quoting ElConando:


It's windy up there. Didn't go near the peak but it easily gusted into the 40's when I was there about 4 years ago.


Ya it get's nasty up there. Pick any given day during the winter to look at those obs and they are amazing. Usually 80-100mph Gusts +.
I usually try and get up there to ride tuckerman's ravine every few years.
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Am I the only one that doesn't see the troll comments? they are all grey. I wasn't able to read them when I was a non-member and I don't read them now.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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856. mbjjm
Flooding videos from Margaretville Ny,

Link

Link
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Admin must be takin' a breather this afternoon.


Admin must have died because there is no such thing anymore.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
831. They can get the best of us at times if you don't ignore em before they get to you.
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852. IMA
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For those off-topic, just remember, you're risking a ban.


But only if you break the rule about being off-topic, right? I mean, that one about hot-linking doesn't apply (at least to you), right?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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