Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
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Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Hey, if the models are turning depression 12 out to sea in long term, that's not a good sign, because that's probably what it wont do, lol. Many times computer models in the far long term will forecast hurricanes to hit Tampa, so there you go.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:


So miami is safe from any category 3 or higher storms am I right? the water is too cold around Miami
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2697. emcf30
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWELVE AL122011 08/29/11 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 66 80 91 98 101 102 102
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 14 13 4 3 6 8 7 10 9 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -2 -1 3 6 5 -2 0 0 -6 -3
SHEAR DIR 60 61 66 62 56 86 68 180 100 124 159 134 148
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4
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2696. lhwhelk
Quoting DFWjc:
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
I am SOOO jealous. We have predicted rain for the weekend on the TX coast, though.
2670.TDogg, I'm going to remember that one. Sorry about your hamster.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME BROKEN BANDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INTIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. CURRENTLY
THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS APPEARANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL SOON LESSEN...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 275/13. THERE IS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
40-50W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CYCLONE FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 9.8N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.3N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.2N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 12.3N 34.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.4N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 15.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.5N 48.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
2693. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bermuda-Cane-caster, lol


No... More like Fishcaster. I don't want it to hit Bermuda either. LOL...

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
I think i will agreee with the previous answers to me quetion, TD 12 doesnt look solid enough to be named just yet. maybe 5 PM, maybe not. but probably atleast 11 PM, most likely
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Katia is a newly bred species...Guys, go easy on her lol.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:


Are you surprised about that, She was moving so slowly up the east coast I am not surprised. It will warm up quickly though.
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BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 63.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
2679. P451

My post was intended to show the uncertainty. If you think that the track of TD12 is not going to be posted from every conceivable model, at every model synoptic time for the next ten days, I suggest you not log onto Dr. Masters blog for the next 7 days. That is what is done here, trying to guess where it is going using the models as aid. Always has been, always will be.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...DEPRESSION OVER THE WATERS OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 27.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
2684. emcf30
Good riddance Irene.

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Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:

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Quoting MrstormX:


lol seriously....


:P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.



lol seriously....
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2680. DFWjc
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
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2678. JLPR2
Hello morning crew! XD

Really rare for me to be here at this hour, I see we got TD 12 at 5am.
We are now at 9days with at least one named storm in the Atlantic.

*Make that 10days! XD
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My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
The accuracy of computer models in tracking hurricanes has obviously come a long way. However, watching Irene I have thought, and certainly not for the first time, that the models do no not factor in the affects of dry air as much as they should.

When monitoring hurricanes I often turn to the water vapor images on the NHC website. I find these are very helpful in understanding the atmospheric conditions that are likely to impact the storm.

We all understood that Irene would be forced up the East Coast due to the ridge to the west. On the water vapor images, you could clearly see the dry air becoming compressed and pushed down over Texas, even as dry air was pulled into Irene. (My heart really went out to Texas).

But my question to any who are involved in computer modeling, wasn't this something that could have been predicted? Why, at least as it seems to me, do the models not factor in the presence of dry air?
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Quoting Dakster:
I am liking the ECMWF right now...

Bermuda-Cane-caster, lol
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2674. Dakster
I am liking the ECMWF right now...
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Hello all! Good morning. I wish for a quick recovery for all those affected by Irene along the east coast.
Hurricanes are great fun to track and an adrenaline rush when they are coming to you or over you, but one quickly regrets every "it would be cool to get hit" thought once the aftermath begins. No power, destruction, death... This is the time when you realize you never want another storm near you.
My best thoughts for all of you.

TD 12, I believe this one should be watched by everyone. Rule of thumb for me here in
PR is always "it's not gone until it's over 20N or west of 67W". You just never know... That first model run and official track is always anyone's guess. We don't say the best place to be is right along that first forecast track for nothing... This is the one line that will change greatly.
As of now I expect to gradually see the track shift west... For the models to pan out it would have to take a WNW move already and pass 30W at about 10-10.4N, I don't foresee this.
While the odds favor the islands being safe since it has so long to develop and move north as strong systems do, nobody is out of th woods... Much less Bermuda and the east coast.
It isn't strange to get a 1-2 punch in the tropics. I find it's quite common to get a warm up and then a good beating from a stronger storm soon after. (Emily-Irene in PR for example).
So, heads up! Nonetheless, September is here.
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ECMWF in 240hrs.


GFS in 240 Hrs.


CMC in 144hrs.


NOGAPS in 144hrs.


UKMO in 144hrs.
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2670. TDogg
Alibi time: I blew my forecast of Irene because the stratospheric solenoidal equilibrium was miscalculated. In short...my hamster died on the wheel and took out the electric grid. That forced me to break out my slide rule, which I haven't used in eons. Slide rules are tricky devils, but I learned from the experience!
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2669. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No.


agree maybe at 11pm
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To the extreme right
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Quoting SPLbeater:
anticipating 11 AM advisory..will be Katia or not?


No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
2666. 7544
we may see our new k ts born soon
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, Irene will almost no doubt be retired. Damage estimates have already topped $10 billion, making it the 8th costliest hurricane to hit the USA. And these are just early damage estimates, could be more.

Irene has topped the damage costs caused by Frances, Jeanne, and Allison.


Damage in Vermont was pretty extreme, could be more then that amount. Overall though adjusted for inflation some past hurricanes were probably on par with Irene.
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2664. ncstorm
Quoting MrstormX:
CMC warns of frontal forming storms (like Cindy, Franklin) in the coming days.

NOGAPS does as well..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
with the exception of Irene, the Bermuda High positively has not been as strong as predicted at the start of the season
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TD 12 finallyshowing on the central/wide view of the Atlantic, floater should be coming soon for it if it hasnt already got one
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.


definitely be retired. Damage in Bahamas, NC and record flooding in upstate new york, vermont, etc.

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2660. ncstorm
Quoting weatherguy03:
TD #12 Forms In The Eastern Atlantic. Tropical Update w/Video


Great video Bob..interesting that the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF has TD12 farther west..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
anticipating 11 AM advisory..will be Katia or not?
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Quoting AllStar17:


I'm done changing colors for now unless Katia becomes a significant threat. LOL.


lol, let me change mine :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.


Yes, Irene will almost no doubt be retired. Damage estimates have already topped $10 billion, making it the 8th costliest hurricane to hit the USA. And these are just early damage estimates, could be more.

Irene has topped the damage costs caused by Frances, Jeanne, and Allison.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's moving west..


Right now, but in a day or two it should start WNW movement...per the nhc
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why?





Yes, Invest 92L was renamed as TD #12.


I'm done changing colors for now unless Katia becomes a significant threat. LOL.
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Alas poor Jose, I knew him... well not really, what with Irene and all.
TS.Jose's ATCF lifespan from 28August_6amGMT to 29August_6amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent TropicalStormJose's path and
the dot connected to YHZ is where TS.Jose was headed before giving up the ghost.
(Terminal Beach east of Halifax)

Copy&paste 29.7n65.4w-30.9n65.7w, 30.9n65.7w-32.3n65.7w, bda, 32.3n65.7w-34.1n65.6w, 34.1n65.6w-36.2n65.2w, yhz, 34.1n65.6w-44.64n63.32w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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CMC warns of frontal forming storms (like Cindy, Franklin) in the coming days.
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Quoting MrstormX:


I suspect it is going to ride along the Bermuda High, ridging should set it up so it goes WNW for at least the next 5 days, if not more before making a sudden Northern jog E of Bermuda.


It's moving west..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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