Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting WRONGFORCAST:
that idiot is still posting

You mean you?
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Meet the new troll....same as the old troll...
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Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.



Thank you!
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
hey dr m you still out there i hop plzs ban that idiot
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Quoting mbjjm:

They might have to ban him by ip address.He seems to have multiple accounts.



then why dont they do it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Ignore button getting a workout today.

What's amazing is that if you make up a new name you have to wait 24 hours to post anything. So these trolls are intentionally making up multiple names in advance just to be disruptive. They must lead a sad life.

Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
940. Relix
Quoting Tazmanian:





that idiot in post 917 is you lol

Someone forgot to switch accounts.... heh.
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WOW

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Historic Flood event for Vermont! RT @kevinkoski: @thewilmington: Wilmington VT has been devastated! yfrog.com/h43g6cnj

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937. mbjjm
Quoting Tazmanian:





that idiot in post 917 is you lol

They might have to ban him by ip address.He seems to have multiple accounts.
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wth is wrong with the nhc site? does anyone else get redirected??
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Wait, did wrongforcast seriously just pay ten dollars just so that he could continue to troll the blog???
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Again...interesting...I think then this is the southern fracture of the tropical wave that produced 98L...the timing of a surface feature near the Yucatan right now makes sense with this theory...

Sometimes I find putting together how a tropical cyclone forms is more interesting than the tropical cyclone itself...anyone else think so?

(Sorry for this re-post...I didn't know if this got seen in all the drama about trying to get someone banned. There were was a forty-to-one ratio it seemed like of posts about getting someone banned instead of talking about the weather....LOL).....
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Now that Irene has left, lets get back to the formation of future storms,

92L is lurking westward!
GOM is boiling hot, Temps 30 and 31C,
The SST's are ripe for development in the next week or two.
Were not out of the woods by any means!
It's just a matter of time before a real storm comes to America!
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:
Anyway, Jose is generating new convection just south of the center:



He is doing well considering the shear he is under right now.


Yeah, some people don't agree with him being classified, but I do. He's consistently developing convection near the center and has tropical storm-force winds. Add a warm-cored low that is closed and you have a tropical storm. It really is that simple.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting WRONGFORCAST:
that idiot is still posting





that idiot in post 917 is you lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Dr. Masters....We got another problem....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting FLdewey:
Sad news as history is being lost...



The Blenheim Covered Bridge in North Blenheim NY has been totally washed away. awaiting photos.



NOOOO!!!! I'm from Blenheim. do you have a link?
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Looks like he's gonna keep you busy Doc.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.




thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
916. JLPR2
Quoting NASA101:


For the last time, every time you guys post images from that site all we see is this:
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Quoting NASA101:



NASA101
PLZS REASD MY POST BE LOW



they no longer yet you hot link from that site in other words you have too up lode too imageshack




YOUR NOT SHOWINH US NOTHING PLZS UPLODE IT TOO IMAGESHACK
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Brrr....Lows in the 30s on Mt. Washington Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures below freezing on Wednesday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting JeffMasters:
Breezy day on Mt Washington, NH, 81 mph gusting to 96 last hour.

Jeff Masters


Yup, nothing but a breeze for the observers up there that know what winter brings.

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Quoting FLdewey:
Public safety tip:

Never, ever seek shelter from a hurricane in a port-o-john.



Wish you had told me that an hour ago. Anybody got an Febreze?
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910. mbjjm
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


I've been to the Accuweather studios in State College PA, and by far I thought Henry Margusity was the best, most competent forecaster there. He told me specifically in June that the NE was under the gun from hurricanes this year. He is also one funny guy. Frank Strait was OK but he kinda bored me after a bit.

I think the best on accuweather is Point-Counterpointwith Bernie Rayno and KenReeves
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thanks doc thankyou very much
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Quoting BrockBerlin:




Actually a Category 5 landfall in California is very statistically improbable and none of the current models call for a situation like that to occur. I think your forecast will not verify at least in the 5000 year time frame.

A category 5 landfall is a very rare event for most about anybody in the USA except South Florida, where two category 5 hurricanes have came ashore.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Breezy day on Mt Washington, NH, 81 mph gusting to 96 last hour.

Jeff Masters


Nothing too out of the ordinary ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting NASA101:
For what's it worth, 12Z NOGAPS has 92L moving WEST through 55W - 16N





they no longert yet you hot link from that site in other words you have too up lode too imageshack
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.



Thank you!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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