Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting PcolaDan:
@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
834k of 1.2M customers affected by #Irene are currently w/o service. We thank you for your patience as we work through restoration.


Yeah, at one point 75% of dominion customers in the Richmond area were without power, I was the lucky 25%. LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Anybody think that Jose could get a little stronger? Look at that deep blow-up of convection on Jose.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Link

Link to some of the Vermont flooding.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Jose is about three times the size of Marco...

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. COMMISSIONERS POINT ON BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H. ALSO...A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.


I guess Marco still holds the title BY A LONG SHOT...but isn't the cloud shield of Marco about the size of Jose's cloud shield? Tropical storm wind field size is quiet different than cloud shield size indeed....
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997. JLPR2


Jose covered most of its LLC once again.
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Gallery of damage to Hwy 12 on the outer banks. Will take months to repair :(

Link
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Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


LOL...Nice.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
993. JeffMasters (Admin)
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I agree...wow Jose continues to surprise...I didn't believe it was worthy of naming until you guys posted evidience of it producing tropical storm winds...WOW...

By the way...is Jose smaller than Marco 2008...or the same size?


Nah, Jose's a small one with a radii of 50 miles (a little bigger than he looks, actually).

Marco managed only a little over 10 miles.
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@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
834k of 1.2M customers affected by #Irene are currently w/o service. We thank you for your patience as we work through restoration.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Again...interesting...I think then this is the southern fracture of the tropical wave that produced 98L...the timing of a surface feature near the Yucatan right now makes sense with this theory...

Sometimes I find putting together how a tropical cyclone forms is more interesting than the tropical cyclone itself...anyone else think so?

(Sorry for this re-post...I didn't know if this got seen in all the drama about trying to get someone banned. There were was a forty-to-one ratio it seemed like of posts about getting someone banned instead of talking about the weather....LOL).....


I guess it would depend on the storm, which is the more interesting. But you're right. The forces that align to make a tropical cyclone can be fascinating. Also a real head scratcher at times because sometimes conditions are perfect for a storm to form or deepen and it just doesn't. Irene a perfect example.

Rita was formed in an unusual way. At least I remember reading that somewhere. She was a tropical wave that traveled across the ocean and didn't do a thing until she got on our side of the pond interacting with a trough or something like that. Yep, we're a long way from over. And things can definitely get interesting in a hurry this time of year. :)
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well see how far W 92L gets
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I agree...wow Jose continues to surprise...I didn't believe it was worthy of naming until you guys posted evidience of it producing tropical storm winds...WOW...

By the way...is Jose smaller than Marco 2008...or the same size?


Jose is about three times the size of Marco...

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. COMMISSIONERS POINT ON BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H. ALSO...A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I agree...wow Jose continues to surprise...I didn't believe it was worthy of naming until you guys posted evidience of it producing tropical storm winds...WOW...

By the way...is Jose smaller than Marco 2008...or the same size?


Jose: Tropical Storm force winds out 50 miles

Marco: Tropical Storm force winds out 11.5 miles
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
At the end of the short article, it says:

'An average of 20 storms and typhoons hit the Philippines annually, with dozens killed during the last storms - Nock-ten and Muifa - in July.' Link

Now that's tropical cyclone capital.

Can you imagine having to deal with 20 a year?
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Quoting PcolaDan:
WOW

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Historic Flood event for Vermont! RT @kevinkoski: @thewilmington: Wilmington VT has been devastated! yfrog.com/h43g6cnj



WOW.. Think you can post that picture everytime someone says Irene was a non-event?

thanks
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
Friends in Seaside Heights are ok. Never even lost power but had some close calls. They experienced the strongest winds and highest water they have seen in all the years living there. They got lucky since only their garage/dock has flooded and the house is elevated by about 5 feet so it's dry. A few streets down it looks like some areas are under water up to car roofs. I guess it all depends on your elevation and where the water is being pushed.

The odd thing is that they actually got the highest water levels after the storm had passed and made its last land fall.
Now they are also getting the gustiest most violent winds of the entire storm.

Is that normal for such a northerly storm?
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Stronger? I definitely did NOT see that coming. Then again, who saw him forming in the first place?


I can't honestly say that I thought he would be classified, but I thought to myself the past few days that the NHC was downplaying him too much. They were persistent in their 0% thinking while it had a vigorous low level circulation and persistent convection that kept being sheared to the south. Yeah, sure 45kts of shear is pretty hostile, but all it takes is a brief respite and you can get enough convection to persist for a tropical cyclone to develop.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
Given the extent of damage, we%u2019ve brought in additional resources to help with clearing trees off lines & restoring power.
______________________________

@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
38k of 173k customers affected in #NoVA are currently without service. Crews working as assessments of damage are made & conditions allow.
_____________________________

@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
398k of 507k customers in #RVA affected are currently without service. Crews working as assessments of damage are made & conditions allow.
_______________________________

@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
397k of 570k customers affected in #HRVA area currently without service. Crews working as assessments are made & as conditions allow.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Satellite presentation isn't terrible. I could believe it.


I agree...wow Jose continues to surprise...I didn't believe it was worthy of naming until you guys posted evidience of it producing tropical storm winds...WOW...

By the way...is Jose smaller than Marco 2008...or the same size?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Here's another one - yep nobody affected


And a few more, before it decided to start tearing down the pole.



Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Now that Irene has left, lets get back to the formation of future storms,

92L is lurking westward!
GOM is boiling hot, Temps 30 and 31C,
The SST's are ripe for development in the next week or two.
Were not out of the woods by any means!
It's just a matter of time before a real storm comes to America!


im pretty close to certain 92 L is going out to sea and will probably have a significant impact on Bermuda...the latest GFS has it just east of Bermuda
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Quoting Msuknotmet:


:( It makes me wonder how stretched resources will be with this storm impacting so many areas they way it has.


My Brother in Law from here in Pensacola with Gulf Power is already up working with crews in Maryland. Left couple of days ago. I'm guessing thousands have mobilized.
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With all this major flooding ongoing, they most certainly will retire Irene. We will probably continue to see more severe flooding as rainwaters work their way downstream.
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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

JOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON
BERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND
INDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.

JOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK. JOSE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.7N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 39.7N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
972. mbjjm
Quoting MississippiWx:
Irene could be the next billion dollar disaster for the United States.

She should almost certainly be retired.


agreed the flooding reports are getting worst with each hour, cant imagine when the rain is squeezed into the Mountains hills and valleys further north.
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Quoting mbjjm:


Usually it is not so easy.ip adresses change and there might be legit users who access the site through the same computer, but I guess they will have to do something.



i see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


Well...it looks like Irene's last advisory is not being issued after all...the discussion says they will do so at 11 PM....I guess the vertical warm core of Irene is still in existence...but is on its way out....and therefore it still is technically a tropical cyclone until it gets knocked out by the incoming upper trough...
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Quoting Gorty:
Is it possible to quote more than one person when you reply? Cause I hate typing more two or names all the time when more than one person responded to me :p


Yes

Quoting Gorty:
Is it possible to quote more than one person when you reply? Cause I hate typing more two or names all the time when more than one person responded to me :p


Yes
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


I know I can just seem him in his basement making an elaborate scheme with 11 accounts

But I thought this storm did not effect anyone?


Here's another one - yep nobody affected
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER...THAT THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE THE LAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
RESTRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 020/23. IRENE OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE
STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 42.7N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 46.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1800Z 50.8N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0600Z 54.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 57.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 60.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 63.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 64.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jose strengthened!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Got a reminder of Epsilon. Hehe. Maybe that wont happen!
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"Typhoon Nanmadol has killed at least eight people in the Philippines and is heading to Taiwan, officials have said.

Fierce winds and rain caused floods and landslides, with 20 major roads blocked and several bridges collapsing, said civil defence office head Benito Ramos."

A few more missing.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
WOW

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Historic Flood event for Vermont! RT @kevinkoski: @thewilmington: Wilmington VT has been devastated! yfrog.com/h43g6cnj



:( It makes me wonder how stretched resources will be with this storm impacting so many areas they way it has.
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963. Relix
Amazing how Jose strenghtened.

I would gladly pay 5 dollars to be able to post here. Perhaps 5 a year except for some old member who we know cause no problems, like Levi and Drakoen. That would put a major stop to trolls.
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Admin please ban wrongforecast! He's the same guy as nostorminflorida btw.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jose strengthened!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Satellite presentation isn't terrible. I could believe it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting PcolaDan:
WOW

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Historic Flood event for Vermont! RT @kevinkoski: @thewilmington: Wilmington VT has been devastated! yfrog.com/h43g6cnj



Uhhh was just about to say that hopefully the flooding doesn't get to bad up there. That looks crazy though.

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
959. mbjjm
Quoting Tazmanian:



then why dont they do it


Usually it is not so easy.ip adresses change and there might be legit users who access the site through the same computer, but I guess they will have to do something.
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958. IMA
"the dam is breaching but is not breaking."

Doesn't sound good to me either way
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sigh. Looked better for Tx yesterday as far as the EURO goes. Had a stronger trough digging deeper into TX and drawing the moisture with it. Today it shows east TX. Keeps going that way we'll be left high and dry again. That Birmingham discussion is voicing my fears. Dang it! Oh well still hoping for the best. :)


I haven't checked the spaghetti graphics but thanks for taking a peek. I did check the GFS-x model on Unysis Weather, not that GFS-x is all that reliable, seems to show persistent coastal wetness through Day 10 but not much inland except north of Houston. Bah!

I did see a coastal trough develop though - cool.
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Irene could be the next billion dollar disaster for the United States.

She should almost certainly be retired.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Jose strengthened!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting WRONGFORCAST:
that idiot is still posting

You mean you?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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